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I suspect he overestimates the "giant sucking sound" of oldsters. If they've been socking away their money into retirement like he assumes in his model, then they're going to be getting it back in income and paying taxes on it. If they retire poor, well, a lot of those aren't going to be exiting...

Doesn't really sound too routine to me but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'd rather let you have it than try to argue the point within the confines of this thread. Till next time.

Ah, but is that what AnimalNoodles was disputing? (Going back to the claim, "the US could end Iran (for example) as an entity tomorrow with a relatively minimal effort", I would have serious questions about what "relatively minimal" means because it seems unlikely at first blush without going...

We may be able to bomb Iran into the stone age but if Stone Age Iran refuses to surrender then Iran still exists and the US can't really do shit about that fact. Reasonable people can disagree on whether resistance would collapse or stiffen under the pressure of a bombing campaign such as was...

Do you think the basic options he laid out are wrong, or do you think you could do better on building trade partnerships solo (what he characterized as rebuilding an empire), or do you just think taking the hit of having no empire at all is worth it for the pride of flying solo? (I presume you...

What could the US even do about a water shortage? Aircraft carrier desalination would only take the edge off the kind of volume that the canal uses. Basically, I think Panama (and the world) is just going to have to ride out the current El Nino at whatever cost. Then it's time to plan ahead for...

What about that logical train explains how I would know something that I could only know from reading the chart if I didn't read the chart?

No, I mean what is your logic that makes #1 even a possibility given the available evidence?

If I didn't read the chart how did I know his tweet was mistaking drug deaths for opioid deaths lol

You posted a tweet of a guy making an argument, and you want me to know you're using his chart to wordlessly "make" a completely different argument?

For the ten thousandth time, what the fuck does "age adjusted" mean? For example, if they are counting only adult deaths against the adult population while the russian data is counting all (alcoholic) deaths against the whole population then that would be a pretty classic case of lying with...

No, he posted a chart allegedly about all drug deaths, which was mistakenly cited as a chart about opioid deaths, without comment, and blames me for assuming that we were supposed to care about the opioid deaths.

And that's fine IF YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT ALL DRUG DEATHS. To take your analogy, this guy posted a graph of the overall murder rate and said "look how many people are being killed by guns!" And that's why you don't post without comment unless you're really, really sure the message you're...

Was that his point? So in your mind when he said "opioid" he just meant to say "drug"? I'm not at all convinced that was what his point was supposed to be, but if it's your point, then fine. But please expect your readers to do less mind-reading in the future.

You quoted, without comment, a tweet that said "opioid deaths" while showing a graph about "age adjusted drug deaths". I objected to this, and I remain unsure of what "age adjusted" means in this context. Nevertheless, I am prepared to agree based on other data that the total per capita number...

The original point was "American opioid deaths have now surpassed post-Soviet Russian vodka deaths", and "surpassed" has been shown to be unsubstantiated. You could definitely make a different point about American opioid deaths that would stand. Perhaps "...are now comparable to..."

Sure but the same is true of the graph you posted in the first place. I'd be perfectly happy to engage with more recent data. Also, the Taliban didn't shut down meth, which alone would be more than sufficient to prove the point I was making.

Here's a product of about 2 seconds of searching: These numbers are broken into sexed categories, but clearly non-opioid death rates are far above what you were prepared to believe.

Also: What does "age adjusted" mean? I doubt that all non-opioid drug deaths in the USA amount to less than 0.11 per 100,000 (or 1.55 using the lower spike) Nevertheless, deeply alarming. I'd rather a graph that extended past COVID but a brief glance around suggests that while it's down it's...

What surges are you referring to?