Putin had reasons to attack Ukraine, some of them insane, some of them logical, but look at how Zelensky behaves. Tudjman used ceasefire agreements to buy time for Croatia to arm and eventually turn the tide; Zelensky so far has not accepted any ceasefire agreements if memory serves me, despite the fact that right now he is receiving significant hardware from the West - some of which Ukrainian troops will not be familiar with.
A cease fire is the worst possible thing for Ukraine.
Russia
currently has made significant territorial gains, and if a cease-fire is agreed to, that will have several significant effects:
1. It will allow Russia to solidify control over those regions.
2. It will allow Russia time to rebuild its military and stockpiles of munitions.
3. It will remove the urgency the West feels about supporting the Ukraine, which will result in a sharp drop in military support.
4. It will allow Russia to push the current territorial control as the 'new normal.'
All of which will lead to two more key things:
A: Russia will have
zero compunction about sabotaging Ukrainian war material during the cease fire, as they did in years past, detonating ammunition dumps and the like in preparation for the next round of war, which
will happen. Meanwhile, if the Ukrainians do likewise, the Russians will use that as an excuse to go back to war with Ukraine as the 'aggressor,' killing most western willingness to provide support for round 2.
B: Untold atrocities will be committed against the Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territory.
Zelensky cannot afford to accept any cease fire or peace deal that does not involve Russia withdrawing from occupied territory. The only 'flex' he has is
maybe accepting the pre-invasion borders in Luhansk and Donetsk, and even that is questionable.
Finally, the fog of war makes things uncertain, but odds are good that the Russian military is nearing exhaustion, and their cannon fodder from Luhansk and Donetsk conscripts are running out. Again, it is uncertain, but it is entirely
possible, especially if HIMARS usage continues to cripple Russian artillery usage, that they will be able to break the Russian lines and force a retreat-bordering-on-route like they did to the NW and NE of Kyiv, at the least around Kherson.
If they can do that just one more time, it could very easily result in a decisive tilt of the war, with a collapse of what remains of Russian morale. Not
will, but
could.