Future War with (Red) China Hypotheticals/Theorycrafting

Husky_Khan · Aug 19, 2021

History Learner said:
But it's not a strawman, it's pointing out another piece of hardware has also never been combat tested but no one doubts its effectiveness. It's not even an apples to oranges comparison because the Dong Fengs are literally modified ICBMs.

Except it is a strawman. He asked for evidence that the Dong Feng is effective and you just replied ICBM's work which is a worthlessly broad statement. Oh X tank works because it's basically a modified tank. Oh Y Rocket works because it's basically a modified rocket. Oh ZMG Machine Gun works because it's basically a modified AMG Machine Gun.

Sailor.X · Aug 19, 2021

History Learner said:
You said bridging by Armies, which is/was generally pontoon based. If you want to go with this source, however, I'm game because this is what it says:

DISADVANTAGES OF THE MGB/LRS Length - Maximum length is 49.7m.

Not exactly 19 miles, no?

Okay, let's take that at face value: how many missiles do the Taiwanese have and how do they get resupply? Even assuming a massive stockpile with a 100% effectiveness rating, why would the PLAN go pell mell instead of, like every other military, use the PLAAF to suppress the defenses and then send the PLAN in?

Because Taiwan antiship missiles can nail CCP ships in their ports. And Japanese antiship missiles can nail the rest. The CCP has the great misfortune of only having one coast for all of it's ships. They even sneeze wrong at Taiwan and their fleet gets wrecked.

JagerIV · Aug 19, 2021

Eh, an amphibious invasion is hard, but I also doubt it would be nearly so one sided or bloodless as some seem to be suggesting.

The Chinese on their own have a fairly high level of ambitious landing, and the range from mainland to Taiwan is still only about 200-300 km, so helicopters can drop light infantry, well, anywhere on the Island if needed be on top of all the amphibious landing capacity, which looks like it might practically double in the next 2-3 years.

My leaning is that China will invade when they reach the point when all the fighting they have to do amounts to a helicopter flying across and landing in front of their parliament to inform them of the conquering with barely a shot fired. Basically, once the will to resist is well broken and infiltration near complete. Basically, they want to take Taiwan with as much fighting as the Taliban needed to do in the last week to take Afghanistan.

If the Tiawanese don't immediately fold under pressure, then I think it comes down to a 1-2 month air and naval war where the US and Tiawanese commitment is tested: after the 1st or 2nd Aircraft Carrier is destroyed, will the US Navy keep to the field, or leave? At which point the Taiwanese may read the writing on the wall and surrender, or the bombings and air casualties will just be intolerable, and they give up that way.

If an intense 1-2 months of air and naval campaign doesn't break someone's naval or air capacity, and its not going to come down to a morale victory, then its probably a year or two campaign to take the Island: Iwo Jima was a month long operation over a tiny space, the Philippine campaign was about a year long, Okinawa was like 3 months. But, if people are committed enough to keep up a multi month war to a yearish long, Taiwan at that point is probably not the all important front at that point, and you probably have an invasion of Korea to draw the US into massed ground campaign or secure more airbases and cut off some more support harbors for the US Navy or Chinese occupation of Singapore down to Australia or some such to secure oil and cut off Japan.

Zachowon · Aug 19, 2021

JagerIV said:
Eh, an amphibious invasion is hard, but I also doubt it would be nearly so one sided or bloodless as some seem to be suggesting.

The Chinese on their own have a fairly high level of ambitious landing, and the range from mainland to Taiwan is still only about 200-300 km, so helicopters can drop light infantry, well, anywhere on the Island if needed be on top of all the amphibious landing capacity, which looks like it might practically double in the next 2-3 years.

My leaning is that China will invade when they reach the point when all the fighting they have to do amounts to a helicopter flying across and landing in front of their parliament to inform them of the conquering with barely a shot fired. Basically, once the will to resist is well broken and infiltration near complete. Basically, they want to take Taiwan with as much fighting as the Taliban needed to do in the last week to take Afghanistan.

If the Tiawanese don't immediately fold under pressure, then I think it comes down to a 1-2 month air and naval war where the US and Tiawanese commitment is tested: after the 1st or 2nd Aircraft Carrier is destroyed, will the US Navy keep to the field, or leave? At which point the Taiwanese may read the writing on the wall and surrender, or the bombings and air casualties will just be intolerable, and they give up that way.

If an intense 1-2 months of air and naval campaign doesn't break someone's naval or air capacity, and its not going to come down to a morale victory, then its probably a year or two campaign to take the Island: Iwo Jima was a month long operation over a tiny space, the Philippine campaign was about a year long, Okinawa was like 3 months. But, if people are committed enough to keep up a multi month war to a yearish long, Taiwan at that point is probably not the all important front at that point, and you probably have an invasion of Korea to draw the US into massed ground campaign or secure more airbases and cut off some more support harbors for the US Navy or Chinese occupation of Singapore down to Australia or some such to secure oil and cut off Japan.

Helicopters are a lot more vulnerable too MANPADS

JagerIV · Aug 19, 2021

Zachowon said:
Helicopters are a lot more vulnerable too MANPADS

Sure, and tanks are vunerable to helicopter missiles. This is the logic that paratroopers weren't a think in WW-2 because machine guns can shoot people. Pointing out weapons can hurt people is, well, irrelevent.

Zachowon · Aug 19, 2021

JagerIV said:
Sure, and tanks are vunerable to helicopter missiles. This is the logic that paratroopers weren't a think in WW-2 because machine guns can shoot people. Pointing out weapons can hurt people is, well, irrelevent.

You seem to think Helicopters can get deep inside of Taiwan without getting detected and shot down by simple things.

JagerIV · Aug 19, 2021

Not at all. The fact that military operations have the risk for casualties, is, well, uninteresting as a statement. Is your contention that MANPADs is all the Tiawanese need to defend their island against the chinese?

Zachowon · Aug 19, 2021

JagerIV said:
Not at all. The fact that military operations have the risk for casualties, is, well, uninteresting as a statement. Is your contention that MANPADs is all the Tiawanese need to defend their island against the chinese?

No. Just that a place like Taiwan would have plenty of ways against heliborne enemies

Lord Sovereign · Aug 19, 2021

Now I'm not a military expert, and I know the Chinese threat is often overblown, but I do have some worries about the Chinese Navy and its warship construction. From what I can see, they are essentially doing everything right if they want to be a naval power. They're pumping out dozens of escort vessels, will be significantly expanding their submarine force, and are looking to have four aircraft carriers by the end of this decade.

They also have planes for these carriers, many of them actually made in China.

The People's Liberation Army Navy could become a genuine danger to US battle groups in the Pacific. Regardless, China will be a fully fledged blue water navy in the foreseeable future, and that should be cause for concern. If not for the US, then its allies in that neck of the woods (IE, Japan, stop being silly bastards, scrap the 9th Amendment, and literally force feed the JMSDF money).

Sailor.X · Aug 19, 2021

Lord Sovereign said:
Now I'm not a military expert, and I know the Chinese threat is often overblown, but I do have some worries about the Chinese Navy and its warship construction. From what I can see, they are essentially doing everything right if they want to be a naval power. They're pumping out dozens of escort vessels, will be significantly expanding their submarine force, and are looking to have four aircraft carriers by the end of this decade.

They also have planes for these carriers, many of them actually made in China.

The People's Liberation Army Navy could become a genuine danger to US battle groups in the Pacific. Regardless, China will be a fully fledged blue water navy in the foreseeable future, and that should be cause for concern. If not for the US, then its allies in that neck of the woods (IE, Japan, stop being silly bastards, scrap the 9th Amendment, and literally force feed the JMSDF money).

10 Virginias, 2 Seawolfs and 2 Ohio SSGNs can literally sink the entire Chinese Navy and that is not a hyperbolic statement. And that is a fact any Bubblehead will tell you.

Doomsought · Aug 19, 2021

Sailor.X said:
10 Virginias, 2 Seawolfs and 2 Ohio SSGNs can literally sink the entire Chinese Navy and that is not a hyperbolic statement. And that is a fact any Bubblehead will tell you.

Can. They can sink it. Not will.

China has a far more devastating weapon that they have been proven willing to use: Bribes.

Sailor.X · Aug 19, 2021

Doomsought said:
Can. They can sink it. Not will.

China has a far more devastating weapon that they have been proven willing to use: Bribes.

Yes they can. Sub launched antiship and torpedoes was how we were going to destroy the Soviet Surface Fleet in the Cold War. US Navy ocean warfare is bases around Subs taking point due to their stealth.

Doomsought · Aug 19, 2021

Sailor.X said:
Yes they can. Sub launched antiship and torpedoes was how we were going to destroy the Soviet Surface Fleet in the Cold War. US Navy ocean warfare is bases around Subs taking point due to their stealth.

Only if someone pulls the trigger.

Lord Sovereign · Aug 19, 2021

...I'd imagine US submarines sinking Chinese warships, especially their carriers, might be a bit more difficult with dozens of escort ships. I am speaking of China as she will be at the end of the decade, not the current no man's land between Green water and Blue water navy she's currently in.

Zachowon · Aug 19, 2021

Lord Sovereign said:
...I'd imagine US submarines sinking Chinese warships, especially their carriers, might be a bit more difficult with dozens of escort ships. I am speaking of China as she will be at the end of the decade, not the current no man's land between Green water and Blue water navy she's currently in.

Quality also matters.
We have more munitions then they have ships

Lord Sovereign · Aug 19, 2021

Zachowon said:
Quality also matters.

Yes, that's why the Chinese are building type-055 destroyers.

And type-054 frigates.

And type-095 submarines.

These are all modern pieces of kit, let's not kid ourselves.

Zachowon · Aug 19, 2021

Lord Sovereign said:
Yes, that's why the Chinese are building type-055 destroyers.

And type-054 frigates.

And type-095 submarines.

These are all modern pieces of kit, let's not kid ourselves.

...are they good? Are they tested like how we test ours woth testing the Shockwave if explosion reistsence?

gral · Aug 19, 2021

Zachowon said:
...are they good? Are they tested like how we test ours woth testing the Shockwave if explosion reistsence?

As far as I can tell yes. Biggest vulnerability of the Chinese is lack of experience(and associated things like doctrine), but IMO their kit is almost as good as the US one(and by that, I mean it's closer to current US kit than mid-80's Soviet kit was to mid-80's US kit).

JagerIV · Aug 19, 2021

Zachowon said:
No. Just that a place like Taiwan would have plenty of ways against heliborne enemies

And those methods have counters, and those counters counter, until someone attritions out. Being within helicopter range of the mainland does mean that the whole island is in range of relatively easy resupply and commando operations from the mainland.

Obviously, if the war gets hot, there would be large numbers of losses. We lost about 5,000 helicopters in Vietnam, I think the USSR lost about 500 aircraft in Afganistan. A hot intense war over Tiawan is going to result in hundreds of aircraft losses per month.

Taiwan alone has something like 250 fighter jets, and pre serious land invasion, unless the Chinese want to gamble on very daring raids (well, I assume you'd have raids either way, comando's and supplying commandos: probably a whole bunch of Communist agents pre positioned already: so major raids). Pre landing you want to have mostly at least broken the back of that force. So, pre-mass use of helicopters to deploy troops and provide close air support, were probably talking about a 1,000 fighters overall having been destroyed.

Which is where that first month window comes in, because no one really has the resources on hand to sustain high tempo operations for more than a month or two. China apparently has about 1,200 helicopters on hand, a lot of them fairly light, so if they haven't destroyed the enemies ability to resist before losing, say, 400 of them, the war will have to be slowed down a bit for factories to build more helicopters.

Then it becomes a question of endurance and long term commitment, rather than immediate tactical skill and local concentration of force, and the nature of the war changes.

Lord Sovereign · Aug 19, 2021

JagerIV said:
Then it becomes a question of endurance and long term commitment, rather than immediate tactical skill and local concentration of force, and the nature of the war changes.

In some respects, I think a modern war would be a bit like a Napoleonic campaign: relatively short with a few decisive actions and limited manpower by comparison to the monster conscript armies of the early 20th century.

Future War with (Red) China Hypotheticals/Theorycrafting

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