I read,that italian actually made some dive bombers in 1940 /SM86/ but never used them.Officially,becouse british fighters would massacre them.
Which was stupid - british in beginning of 1941 had 3 squadrons of Hurricane in Egypt,and their naval fighters till the end of 1941 was Fulmars,which could be fight even by Cr42.
Of course,after 1941 they would become less and less efficient.Italian would replace them with Mc200 capable of using 400kg bombs,and and third generation fighters with 640kg bombs.
So,Italian in 1941 ,after adding their dive bombers to torpedo bombers and fighter escort,could starve Malta.Which would let Rommel conqer Egypt and Iraq....and still lost after that.
Only difference - less lean-lease for soviets,more countries remain free after WW2.