Election 2020 Your Electoral Predictions

[almostinsane]

As the election gets closer, I am curious about this forum's opinion on what will be the most likely outcome. From what I see, I think Trump will win the electoral vote, but I'm divided on whether he will win the Popular Vote. What is your 2020 prediction?

 

[LordsFire]

For actual votes, I'm predicting a Trump Landslide, greater than 90% certainty.

Once the mail fraud starts arriving in bulk, who knows what the Democrats will claim?

 

[Typhonis]

The question is what will the Republicans do about vote fraud by mail? They know it's coming and even the NeverTrumpers have to know this is bad for them as well.

 

[Certified_Heterosexual]

I'm somewhat pessimistic that we'll vote our way out of anything, though, mostly because of the sclerotic condition of our system. I suspect major change will have to come through events first rather than politics.

That said, I'm optimistic for Trump's chances. People forget how much of an outrageous wild card his victory was in 2016. One important thing to consider when talking about moderates is that Trump has already proven he is capable of not destroying the world or initiating WW3. This is very important.

Put yourself in moderate normie shoes in 2016. It wasn't that hard for regular people who aren't political junkies to buy into one or more of the following ideas:

1. Trump is basically a Nazi who wants to gas all the Mexicans (within the first four years)
2. Even if Trump isn't a Nazi, his election will lead to mass right-wing violence (within the first four years)
3. Trump is an egomaniacal psycho who will nuke at least one country whose leader says something mean to him (within the first four years)
4. Trump is an incompetent buffoon who will fuck up so bad that America will collapse (within the first four years)

The screeching was obviously inane to us, but I know a lot of people who just adopted some combination of these default views (perhaps attenuated a bit) because mass media gaslighting was so powerful, and because Trump truly was a wildcard. Imagine you're a default-left normie in 2016. Even though you're not glued to CNN or Buzzfeed, seeing Trump elected was still a momentous "what the fuck is going to happen to this country now" moment.

And then? Nothing terrible happened. The fervor of the progressive megaphone has stayed constant, of course, but it is falling on deafer ears every single day that World War III or Holocaust 2: Smokestack Boogaloo hasn't broken out. Someone posted a tweet recently where some liberals were bitching at each other, and one said something like "we can worry about policy differences after we eliminate the threat to our democracy." They still think he is going to install himself as some kind of dictator! We've always seen this as psychotic and tiresome, but now that the world hasn't ended, it's starting to feel that way to a lot of regular people.

There's just a certain kind of person who is conformist enough to have passively bought into the "Trump bad" narrative, but who is practical enough to believe their own eyes over the narrative. At the very least, I think a lot of these people who voted for Hillary will just abstain this time. They now understand that Trump isn't going to end the world, and Biden is just too uninspiring to vote for.

 

[Mimas]

I know that I hadn't voted for Trump in 2016, because while I felt that his ability to handle the economy was sound, I felt much less confident in him interacting with other countries.

I had felt that his ego and bombastic personality would alienate a lot of people.

But I've been pleasantly surprised. I was right that Trump was good for the economy, but very off base in how he dealt with foreign policy. I think that Trump has been a pretty good president so far.

And with all of the... stuff that's been going on in our nation, I don't see any other relevant options. And I know I definitely don't want Biden/Kamala to win, since I think that's just going to make the problems with extreme leftism worse.

 

[Cherico]

40% of America doesn't care about politics.

Not only do they not care they do not want to care about politics. These are the "I just want to grill folks" or the Just let me smoke weed folks really a bunch of people who don't want to give a shit about politics.

The stupidest thing you can do is Force them to give a shit, because who ever is stupid enough to force them to give them a shit are going to be punished.

Now lets just process what happened, most of the national economy was forcibly shut down, people are not allowed to go to their favorite bars and resturants and the people who championed all of that show off their favorite exclusive icecream brands and just got caught openly violating the rules they impose on literally every one else.

On top of that we have had blantantly partizen riots for months now.

The democrats have essentially committed electoral sucide, outside of blantant cheating I don't see how they win this one.