You Are the Future Russian Tsar Nicholas II in 1893: What Do You Do Afterwards?

[WolfBear]

If your mind became transplanted into the future Russian Tsar Nicholas II's body in 1893 while learning fluent Russian and avoiding going completely crazy, what exactly would you do afterwards? As for me:

-Not marry Alexandra due to some of her family members having hemophilia. Marry someone else instead.
-Militarily intervene during the Hamidian massacres in 1894-1897 if the Ottomans refuse to stop these massacres. Be willing to partition the Ottoman Empire if the other European Great Powers support this and also be willing to internationalize the Straits and to create an independent Ottoman Armenia, if necessary. Also be willing to do a voluntary population exchange between Russia and the Ottoman Empire if necessary.
-Avoid the 1904-1905 war with Japan and instead seek compromise.
-Still create a Duma (but ideally in the absence of any revolution in Russia) and actually give the Duma a larger role in governing the country, especially when it comes to domestic policy.
-Avoid encouraging Serbian expansionist inclinations in Austria-Hungary's direction. And if Franz Ferdinand still gets assassinated by Serbian nationalistic terrorists in 1914, then tell Serbia to unconditionall accept Austria-Hungary's ultimatum and throw Serbia under the Austro-Hungarian bus if it doesn't. But also allow pro-Russian Serbian refugees to immigrate to Russia in huge numbers afterwards.
-Pursue a policy of mild Russification, where Russia's different ethnic groups can preserve their own languages and cultures so long as they are least superficially Russify and exhibit loyalty to the Russian state and Russian Tsar.
-Completely abolish the anti-Semitic Pale of Settlement but keep the Jewish quotas in order to spread Jewish talent more widely throughout Russia and also in order to avoid triggering Russian gentiles. I fear that making Russian universities too Jewish could result in a spread of radical leftist ideas there, which I want to avoid.
-Pursue expansion in China during its warlord era. Ideally annex both Mongolia and Xinjiang. Maybe northern Manchuria as well, if actually doable.

Anyway, what additional suggestions would you have for this and where exactly would you disagree with me here?

 

[WolfBear]

Two more things:

1. Renew the Anglo-Russian Convention in 1915.
2. Never actually complete Russia's strategic railroad construction program in Poland. I mean never. After all, I don't want the Schlieffen Plan to ever actually become outdated since this plan serves as insurance for Germany to invade Belgium and thus bring Britain into any future war on the Franco-Russian side. Of course, I certainly wouldn't actually want there to be any future wars, but if there will be any future wars against any will, then I'd like both France and Britain as allies, of course.

 

[WolfBear]

-Militarily intervene during the Hamidian massacres in 1894-1897 if the Ottomans refuse to stop these massacres. Be willing to partition the Ottoman Empire if the other European Great Powers support this and also be willing to internationalize the Straits and to create an independent Ottoman Armenia, if necessary. Also be willing to do a voluntary population exchange between Russia and the Ottoman Empire if necessary.

The one thing that I wonder, though, is whether having Russia militarily intervene would make these massacres even worse, possibly on a level comparable to that of the Armenian Genocide. Still, it's hard to reach real life's genocide levels when the bulk of the Russian Army can be directed against you, unlike during WWI in real life, when Russia was also busy simultaneously fighting both Germany and Austria-Hungary.

Also, if there's an Ottoman partition in the 1890s, then this would be a huge win for Russia since this would mean that the Ottomans cannot block the Straits during any future World War I.

 

[liberty90]

-Militarily intervene during the Hamidian massacres in 1894-1897 if the Ottomans refuse to stop these massacres. Be willing to partition the Ottoman Empire if the other European Great Powers support this and also be willing to internationalize the Straits and to create an independent Ottoman Armenia, if necessary. Also be willing to do a voluntary population exchange between Russia and the Ottoman Empire if necessary.

This is a case when trying to do something good could accidentally kill you, I feel. What if Germany decides to ally with Ottomans? What if the world decides to just drink tea and look at the situation slightly amused, not at all moved by suffering of people under Ottomans?

Russian military was slightly better than Ottoman one, but it was a paper bear.

I would avoid strongly any conflict. Slowly grant more autonomy to Poland. Encourage private enterprise, building railroads and industry.

 

[Skallagrim]

Isn't this pretty much ASB territory, since SI scenarios rely on knowledge of future events?

 

[WolfBear]

Isn't this pretty much ASB territory, since SI scenarios rely on knowledge of future events?

Yes.

 

[stevep]

If your mind became transplanted into the future Russian Tsar Nicholas II's body in 1893 while learning fluent Russian and avoiding going completely crazy, what exactly would you do afterwards? As for me:

-Not marry Alexandra due to some of her family members having hemophilia. Marry someone else instead.
-Militarily intervene during the Hamidian massacres in 1894-1897 if the Ottomans refuse to stop these massacres. Be willing to partition the Ottoman Empire if the other European Great Powers support this and also be willing to internationalize the Straits and to create an independent Ottoman Armenia, if necessary. Also be willing to do a voluntary population exchange between Russia and the Ottoman Empire if necessary.
-Avoid the 1904-1905 war with Japan and instead seek compromise.
-Still create a Duma (but ideally in the absence of any revolution in Russia) and actually give the Duma a larger role in governing the country, especially when it comes to domestic policy.
-Avoid encouraging Serbian expansionist inclinations in Austria-Hungary's direction. And if Franz Ferdinand still gets assassinated by Serbian nationalistic terrorists in 1914, then tell Serbia to unconditionall accept Austria-Hungary's ultimatum and throw Serbia under the Austro-Hungarian bus if it doesn't. But also allow pro-Russian Serbian refugees to immigrate to Russia in huge numbers afterwards.
-Pursue a policy of mild Russification, where Russia's different ethnic groups can preserve their own languages and cultures so long as they are least superficially Russify and exhibit loyalty to the Russian state and Russian Tsar.
-Completely abolish the anti-Semitic Pale of Settlement but keep the Jewish quotas in order to spread Jewish talent more widely throughout Russia and also in order to avoid triggering Russian gentiles. I fear that making Russian universities too Jewish could result in a spread of radical leftist ideas there, which I want to avoid.
-Pursue expansion in China during its warlord era. Ideally annex both Mongolia and Xinjiang. Maybe northern Manchuria as well, if actually doable.

Anyway, what additional suggestions would you have for this and where exactly would you disagree with me here?

Agree with most of this. Good point about not marrying Alexandra, both because of the hemophilia and also she was an ultra-reactionary. Also if your expecting Germany to be the main threat to Russia then having a German wife is an handicap although given the German principalities provided so many consorts through history I'm not sure what alternatives there might be. Possibly another Orthodox princess although Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia are all pretty small and weak at this point.

If you can intervene and stop the massacres then good. The Russian army isn't the most efficient but then neither is the Ottoman one and you will have much larger numbers available. Also if your making clear limited aims, including being able to prevent the massacures and no direct annexations being intended - with if say an Armenia 'state' is established some other country suppying the dynasty it should defuse any fears about it being a tool of Russian expansion. [It will to a degree anyway as even with say a German prince the nation will have a bitterly hostile Ottoman state to the west and south and Russia as its only reliable protector]. If the Ottomans are rigid enough to alienate the other powers and a partition results with possibly an internationalized straits all the better.

Also use the war, regardless of how it goes as a reason for a review of the military. What did we get right and what do we need to change/correct stance. This would help reform the military and also win you kudos both with the military and probably a lot of the ordinary population.

Definitely agree with a Duma without being forced and giving gradual support to its expansion of power over your hopefully long reign.

Not sure if the war with Japan was avoidable given they were fearful of how vulnerable they would be once the Trans-Siberian railway is completed and you need to do that to develop the eastern lands and secure your own possessions against Japan. However, especially as it a distance and probably seen as a minor outback position possibly you can guide things so that better commanders are sent there, both military and naval as well as civilian governors for the economic and demographic development. If Japan is willing to accept a partition where they have Korea and you have influence in Manchuria then fine but if not seek to at least defend what you have especially since you can win a war of attrition on land whereas Japan can not.

Either way seek to present yourself as interested in internal development rather than military expansion. Seek to encourage investment from a wide range of sources as well as ideas to help improve the economy and education. If Wilhelm ends the Reassurance Treaty then an alignment with France but make clear its a defensive one. [Not going to stop Germany attacking you possibly if it feels a need/desire but it will win support both at home and overseas.] If Germany similarly starts threatening Britain with its naval programme and Tirpitz as well as Wilhelm making rash and hostile statements then seek alignment with them as well in terms of seeking to end tensions.

If the Turks are largely driven out of Europe by some version of the Balkan wars then Serbia will look for control of more Slavic and especially Orthodox lands to the north so clashes with Austria are likely. Very likely the assassination of FF will be butterflied with so many years before it occurs and how unlikely it was. However seek to moderate both sides. If Vienna double crosses you as OTL with its occupation of Bosnia be critical but not supporting terrorism.

I think Russification can be achieved at least in many of the European lands by pushing education which will largely be in Russian. If its the way ahead for a career or simply a better life them most people are likely to find that an acceptable price and if the read and speak Russian at work then its likely to be what their children will learn.

Hostility towards Jews seemed to be deeply embedded in culture in much of eastern Europe unfortunately but seeking to gradually reduce that, along with hostility towards other minority groups. Definitely oppose anything like the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" fabrication. This could lead you into clashes with some of your more reactionary elements including in the aristocracy and clergy so care will be needed here. Possible play on the title of Emperor of All the Russia's as stating your duty to look after all its people as long as they are loyal.

One obvious point. Since his elder brother has already been executed in 1887 make sure that Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov [aka Lenin] also passes quickly from this world.

Bascially seek to present yourself as a ruler who looks after all his subjects, including being willing to come down hard on officials or aristocrats who are corruption or incompetent. Take care of the army but with attempts to improve the quality of its officers and equipment especially and also Russia's ability to maintain its own forces. So if something like WWI does come then your less reliant on imports of high tech products. A lot less interest in a large navy as you want good relations with Britain and also a modern navy is bloody expensive to develop and maintain and you will have a lot of other things which are an higher priority.

 

[WolfBear]

Agree with most of this. Good point about not marrying Alexandra, both because of the hemophilia and also she was an ultra-reactionary. Also if your expecting Germany to be the main threat to Russia then having a German wife is an handicap although given the German principalities provided so many consorts through history I'm not sure what alternatives there might be. Possibly another Orthodox princess although Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia are all pretty small and weak at this point.

If you can intervene and stop the massacres then good. The Russian army isn't the most efficient but then neither is the Ottoman one and you will have much larger numbers available. Also if your making clear limited aims, including being able to prevent the massacures and no direct annexations being intended - with if say an Armenia 'state' is established some other country suppying the dynasty it should defuse any fears about it being a tool of Russian expansion. [It will to a degree anyway as even with say a German prince the nation will have a bitterly hostile Ottoman state to the west and south and Russia as its only reliable protector]. If the Ottomans are rigid enough to alienate the other powers and a partition results with possibly an internationalized straits all the better.

Also use the war, regardless of how it goes as a reason for a review of the military. What did we get right and what do we need to change/correct stance. This would help reform the military and also win you kudos both with the military and probably a lot of the ordinary population.

Definitely agree with a Duma without being forced and giving gradual support to its expansion of power over your hopefully long reign.

Not sure if the war with Japan was avoidable given they were fearful of how vulnerable they would be once the Trans-Siberian railway is completed and you need to do that to develop the eastern lands and secure your own possessions against Japan. However, especially as it a distance and probably seen as a minor outback position possibly you can guide things so that better commanders are sent there, both military and naval as well as civilian governors for the economic and demographic development. If Japan is willing to accept a partition where they have Korea and you have influence in Manchuria then fine but if not seek to at least defend what you have especially since you can win a war of attrition on land whereas Japan can not.

Either way seek to present yourself as interested in internal development rather than military expansion. Seek to encourage investment from a wide range of sources as well as ideas to help improve the economy and education. If Wilhelm ends the Reassurance Treaty then an alignment with France but make clear its a defensive one. [Not going to stop Germany attacking you possibly if it feels a need/desire but it will win support both at home and overseas.] If Germany similarly starts threatening Britain with its naval programme and Tirpitz as well as Wilhelm making rash and hostile statements then seek alignment with them as well in terms of seeking to end tensions.

If the Turks are largely driven out of Europe by some version of the Balkan wars then Serbia will look for control of more Slavic and especially Orthodox lands to the north so clashes with Austria are likely. Very likely the assassination of FF will be butterflied with so many years before it occurs and how unlikely it was. However seek to moderate both sides. If Vienna double crosses you as OTL with its occupation of Bosnia be critical but not supporting terrorism.

I think Russification can be achieved at least in many of the European lands by pushing education which will largely be in Russian. If its the way ahead for a career or simply a better life them most people are likely to find that an acceptable price and if the read and speak Russian at work then its likely to be what their children will learn.

Hostility towards Jews seemed to be deeply embedded in culture in much of eastern Europe unfortunately but seeking to gradually reduce that, along with hostility towards other minority groups. Definitely oppose anything like the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" fabrication. This could lead you into clashes with some of your more reactionary elements including in the aristocracy and clergy so care will be needed here. Possible play on the title of Emperor of All the Russia's as stating your duty to look after all its people as long as they are loyal.

One obvious point. Since his elder brother has already been executed in 1887 make sure that Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov [aka Lenin] also passes quickly from this world.

Bascially seek to present yourself as a ruler who looks after all his subjects, including being willing to come down hard on officials or aristocrats who are corruption or incompetent. Take care of the army but with attempts to improve the quality of its officers and equipment especially and also Russia's ability to maintain its own forces. So if something like WWI does come then your less reliant on imports of high tech products. A lot less interest in a large navy as you want good relations with Britain and also a modern navy is bloody expensive to develop and maintain and you will have a lot of other things which are an higher priority.

First of all, before I forget, can you please respond to this thread of mine, Steve?

https://www.the-sietch.com/index.php?threads/how-would-the-great-powers-have-responded-to-a-kurdish-armenian-crisis-in-the-ottoman-empire-stoked-by-russia-in-the-late-1910s-or-early-1920s.9100/

Thank you. Now, in response to your points here:

Helene of Orleans might be a good candidate for this, though she might need to convert to Orthodoxy. I don't know how the republican French government would view such a marriage, though Nicky can always say that he's marrying French royal blood and thus strengthening ties with the French people even further even though the French monarchy itself no longer exists by this point in time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_H%C3%A9l%C3%A8ne_of_Orl%C3%A9ans

Interestingly enough, Helene died in January 1951, thus barely managing to live into the second half of the 20th century. She had more than half a century of life ahead of her in the 1890s. Well, if no Bolshevik nuts will ever murder her in this TL, that is.

I'm not sure that relations between an independent Ottoman Armenia and a rump Ottoman Empire are necessarily going to be hostile, at least over the long-run. After all, the Ottomans could view such a state as being a useful buffer to protect their country from Russia's aggressive and expansionist designs. This would be even more true if some kind of population exchange will happen between Ottoman Armenia and the Ottoman Empire, ideally a voluntary one, of course. And having a German prince become Ottoman Armenia's king would be great since then Germany could aim to pursue a rapprochement between Ottoman Armenia and the Ottoman Empire over time. And Russia would also have a country where it could deport its own Armenian revolutionaries to. "You don't like Russian rule? Great, you have your own country to live in! Go ahead and move over there if you want to!" If the Ottomans get partitioned, of course, then that might be even better for Russia but possibly not for the Armenians themselves, who could still get genocided in the process of this occurring since the Ottomans aren't going to go down without taking the Armenians down with them (or at least strongly trying to do so), unfortunately.

Re: Japan: Yeah, offer Korea to Japan in exchange to Manchuria for yourself, but if not, then be prepared to fight, but aim to do a better job with this.

Agreed with the rest of your analysis here, Steve.