WI: Western United States ISOT to 1898

Airedale260

Well-known member
Brief response on a couple of points. Bit tired at the moment so keeping things short.
a) Ah I was thinking of the possibility of the DT US taking the Philippines here. The UT US definitely could IF it had the will to take it and if it was willing to give it independence quickly which would both mollify public opinion in the UTUS and also avoid any resistance.

No, I got that. What I meant was, historically, we had problems with staging out of Hong Kong but Dewey DID pull it off because the Spanish were that fucking incomplete. So it’s very likely they could do it again on their own with knowledge of what pitfalls to avoid.

That's not how supply chains work. They don't stop at national borders so the urban UTUS retains its consumer economy but regions leaving lose theirs. All of the UTUS collapses and the cities have it worst not best because they're densely populated enough for the food riots to destroy their infrastructure.

Wouldn’t necessarily be as profoundly disastrous as you think. It won’t be pretty, but calling out the National Guard to restore order is going to be a high priority. It’ll take some work, but getting things to a stable level is quite doable. Especially if they go bargaining for support from both the rest of the U.S. as well as the major European powers.
 

Buba

A total creep
Subforum Ban (3 day) & Week threadban - Alternate History - Rule 2A - slurs and Rule 3 - obey the staff. You've been told about this before.
As to the UT USA conquering anything ...
For military adventurism you need a military. True that the military that was ISOTed can conquer or terrorise the world into submission.
Who will the military listen to? Washington, who can't pay them and considers between one third and half of them to be 2nd or 3nd class citizens - niggers and spics - all rank behind WASPs. And don't forget all those mulatas and squas, too!
The UT authorities? These also will have problems with paying - but at least and the chain of command is a mess. The UTs have many much, much more pressing problems than the Phillippines. Would the people running the show dare colonise anybody?
Like @Airedale260 wrote - the groundpounders - Army or NGor USMC - will be busy "assissting the Civil Power" in keeping the whole area from descending into chaos.
"We iz in da dark ages! Loot da shops!"

The DT USA lost 1/3r of its territory. Surely more "interesting" issue than Cuba?
How will Congress operate? Can the Senators and Reps from "replaced" vote?
Hearst and that other lier will have more juicy subjects to write about than Spanish atrocities - "In California they mate in groups! Sodomites walk the streets holding hands! They are messed up and don;t know if they are a "he" or "she"!".
Also, inside a short time, ISOTed people will provide information on the rabid press' lies. More fun for everyone.
Ironicaly I see the DT military as being in better shape for attacking Spain. But also not likely for political reasons.
 
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Atarlost

Well-known member
Wouldn’t necessarily be as profoundly disastrous as you think. It won’t be pretty, but calling out the National Guard to restore order is going to be a high priority. It’ll take some work, but getting things to a stable level is quite doable. Especially if they go bargaining for support from both the rest of the U.S. as well as the major European powers.
No one else has the oil to run our internal transportation networks. If we can't scale back up fast enough there's nothing anyone else can do to help.

The threat of being shot won't disperse people who expect to starve to death if they can't find some hoarder to rob. These aren't "bread is expensive" riots. These are "there is no food at all" riots. Dispersing is also a death sentence.

That's if the military doesn't mutiny. Soldiers out putting down riots aren't defending their base's food stockpiles. And the national guardsmen are out of uniform most of the time and probably more concerned for their own friends and families. The more conservative states where the values of the leaders are within shouting distance of the values of the sorts of people who join the military might manage. The more liberal states won't. California especially won't because the greens have chosen to completely fuck over the farmers instead of inconveniencing urban dwellers in order to save a species that has no except Bay Area fish researchers would even notice the loss of. Probably including its own predators because it did reach near extinction in the wild and it didn't take anything bigger down with it.
 

Buba

A total creep
To the fun in the DT states add organised crime which lost money in out-of-USA accounts (some out of ISOTed state accounts prolly too). All foreign currency is worthless. All out-of-ISOT assets. The supply chains for drugs etc.
If politicians and criminals had protective umbrellas of people in DC or non-ISOTed states - then these are gone.
 

ATP

Well-known member
This is turning into a derail, but seriously, stop reading conspiracy theorists and Soviet propagandists and maybe go learn how banking and debt ACTUALLY work.

Honestly, this same poor understanding is something that would be rectified by having a bunch of modern day economists come back to explain what the hell is going on and how the world works…
Soviets sell Wall Street russian gold,and FDR stolen american people gold in 1933.That facts,not theories.
And 2020 USA have fiat money which are made from thin air by banks,when 1898 USA had real money.That is fact,too.

And now,we have two kinds of USA - one,with real money,and other,with money made from USA debt.They must deal with it.
 

stevep

Well-known member
That's not how supply chains work. They don't stop at national borders so the urban UTUS retains its consumer economy but regions leaving lose theirs. All of the UTUS collapses and the cities have it worst not best because they're densely populated enough for the food riots to destroy their infrastructure.

That assumes that regions decide to jump ship. Which considering all of them lose, the urban areas - not just those in California - suffer most but all of them will be badly affected. Coupled with the fact that in a sudden crisis yes some fanatics might want to separate from the west coast but a lot of people would probably prefer to fit with what they know.

Its going to be bad because so many external contacts have been lost - do coastal oil facilities come along as if not it will be even worse - and a massive collapse and disaster could well occur but I'm not certain its going to be as bad as your suggesting.
 

stevep

Well-known member
No, I got that. What I meant was, historically, we had problems with staging out of Hong Kong but Dewey DID pull it off because the Spanish were that fucking incomplete. So it’s very likely they could do it again on their own with knowledge of what pitfalls to avoid.



Wouldn’t necessarily be as profoundly disastrous as you think. It won’t be pretty, but calling out the National Guard to restore order is going to be a high priority. It’ll take some work, but getting things to a stable level is quite doable. Especially if they go bargaining for support from both the rest of the U.S. as well as the major European powers.

Possibly but with the loss of half the country and also up-time knowledge that the war was based on false information - i.e. that the Maine wasn't sabotaged - would the war still happen? Even if it did would that be before the Pacific squadron was called back to home while Washington seeks to cope with what's happened?

The UT US will have possible trade with down time nations but they can't produce a lot of the stuff it requires, or in the necessary amounts. Plus there will be problems with shipments, at least by sea. Doubt anywhere in the world could handle the sort of freighters that the UTUS would be using either in terms of their size or the container system. Plus where the DT world could supply items in many cases they would struggle to supply the amounts a modern consumer society consume.
 

Airedale260

Well-known member
Possibly but with the loss of half the country and also up-time knowledge that the war was based on false information - i.e. that the Maine wasn't sabotaged - would the war still happen? Even if it did would that be before the Pacific squadron was called back to home while Washington seeks to cope with what's happened?

The UT US will have possible trade with down time nations but they can't produce a lot of the stuff it requires, or in the necessary amounts. Plus there will be problems with shipments, at least by sea. Doubt anywhere in the world could handle the sort of freighters that the UTUS would be using either in terms of their size or the container system. Plus where the DT world could supply items in many cases they would struggle to supply the amounts a modern consumer society consume.

The Spanish-American War is kind of like World War I in that it was basically a matter of time before *something* caused tensions to erupt into open war. Heading it off would require a bunch of things to change, and the U.S. as a whole is going to be more concerned with shoring up its strategic/geopolitical interests before something worse kicks off.

Now, this is also likely to be hampered by the U.S. being slapped with another major economic crisis (the U.S. having emerged from its latest one the year before) due to dislocation, and reconciling them is going to be difficult but not impossible (you have part of the Federal Reserve headquartered in San Francisco and it covers all the uptime states except Colorado, but Denver has a regional branch so it would just shift reporting around) and two of the biggest financial geniuses of the era in J.P. Morgan and James Stillman. So it’ll take a lot of work and things won’t be pretty, but the cleanup can be done (though Stillman will likely be very pissed off at his successors).

A lot of the rail infrastructure is still going to be extant at this point, actually, so in a bit of an odd case, transport won’t be AS difficult as one might think (though expect a lot of emergency measures put in place to alleviate the crises that do break out).
 

stevep

Well-known member
The Spanish-American War is kind of like World War I in that it was basically a matter of time before *something* caused tensions to erupt into open war. Heading it off would require a bunch of things to change, and the U.S. as a whole is going to be more concerned with shoring up its strategic/geopolitical interests before something worse kicks off.

Now, this is also likely to be hampered by the U.S. being slapped with another major economic crisis (the U.S. having emerged from its latest one the year before) due to dislocation, and reconciling them is going to be difficult but not impossible (you have part of the Federal Reserve headquartered in San Francisco and it covers all the uptime states except Colorado, but Denver has a regional branch so it would just shift reporting around) and two of the biggest financial geniuses of the era in J.P. Morgan and James Stillman. So it’ll take a lot of work and things won’t be pretty, but the cleanup can be done (though Stillman will likely be very pissed off at his successors).

A lot of the rail infrastructure is still going to be extant at this point, actually, so in a bit of an odd case, transport won’t be AS difficult as one might think (though expect a lot of emergency measures put in place to alleviate the crises that do break out).

I suspect given the massive crisis that the 'partition' will cause is likely to distract DTUS from foreign adventures. Plus you would only have it delayed a few months for ships to be called back from the Pacific which would make the OTL attack on the Philippines impossible. Also given that news of the OTL Spanish-American war will no doubt spread to the DT community that means a lot of people will be changing things.

I won't say its impossible for the Spanish-American war to still occur and even end up with the conquest of the Philippines by the US but I think the latter is rather unlikely. - Not to mention given the isolation from the Philippines with the UTUS in the war and that there was pressure for it OTL you could see the DTUS conceding independence to the islands and hence avoid the bloody repression of the nationalists.

You have a point that foreign imports could come from Europe and go via the DTUS to UTUS but that would require the compliance of the former. Hence bypassing a lot of issues for maritime shipping - at least as long as using DT ships. Plus given how protectionist they are their likely to insist on at least the current US tariffs being imposed on such imported trans-shipment even if they don't add additional charges.
 

Airedale260

Well-known member
I suspect given the massive crisis that the 'partition' will cause is likely to distract DTUS from foreign adventures. Plus you would only have it delayed a few months for ships to be called back from the Pacific which would make the OTL attack on the Philippines impossible. Also given that news of the OTL Spanish-American war will no doubt spread to the DT community that means a lot of people will be changing things.

I won't say its impossible for the Spanish-American war to still occur and even end up with the conquest of the Philippines by the US but I think the latter is rather unlikely. - Not to mention given the isolation from the Philippines with the UTUS in the war and that there was pressure for it OTL you could see the DTUS conceding independence to the islands and hence avoid the bloody repression of the nationalists.

You have a point that foreign imports could come from Europe and go via the DTUS to UTUS but that would require the compliance of the former. Hence bypassing a lot of issues for maritime shipping - at least as long as using DT ships. Plus given how protectionist they are their likely to insist on at least the current US tariffs being imposed on such imported trans-shipment even if they don't add additional charges.

As far as the Philippines go, keep in mind there are a LOT of Filipinos and Americans of Filipino descent in the Western U.S. And given Spain’s track record as a colonial overlord, I expect the most likely outcome would be a war gets postponed but not prevented. Probably with an independent Philippine Republic off the bat this time, but the agitation will be there.

In terms of imports, I seriously doubt Washington is going to try and pick a fight with a part of the U.S. that can and absolutely will wipe the floor with them if they start trying to starve the uptimers -the entire U.S. Army in 1898 was about 28,000 men, and were used to fighting Native Americans (in fact the Spanish-American War was partly responsible for having the Army start to unfuck itself). There might well be some war-crazy dumbasses in Congress (there usually are) but McKinley notably was NOT inclined to start a war.

Plus, at the end of the day, they’re going to be still seen as fellow Americans. As far as the downtimers are concerned, they’ve been sent back in time by an act of God Himself, and so acting against them could very well incur His wrath.

(The rest of the world is going to take one look and go “Oh, shit, God *does* favor the Americans”). The British are probably quietly thankful for the Oregon Treaty, while quietly fuming over American control of the Strait of Juan de Fuca; the Colombians probably go “Huh. They were willing to pay $10 million for the Canal Zone the last time plus rent…maybe we can get $25 million?”
 

stevep

Well-known member
As far as the Philippines go, keep in mind there are a LOT of Filipinos and Americans of Filipino descent in the Western U.S. And given Spain’s track record as a colonial overlord, I expect the most likely outcome would be a war gets postponed but not prevented. Probably with an independent Philippine Republic off the bat this time, but the agitation will be there.

In terms of imports, I seriously doubt Washington is going to try and pick a fight with a part of the U.S. that can and absolutely will wipe the floor with them if they start trying to starve the uptimers -the entire U.S. Army in 1898 was about 28,000 men, and were used to fighting Native Americans (in fact the Spanish-American War was partly responsible for having the Army start to unfuck itself). There might well be some war-crazy dumbasses in Congress (there usually are) but McKinley notably was NOT inclined to start a war.

Plus, at the end of the day, they’re going to be still seen as fellow Americans. As far as the downtimers are concerned, they’ve been sent back in time by an act of God Himself, and so acting against them could very well incur His wrath.

(The rest of the world is going to take one look and go “Oh, shit, God *does* favor the Americans”). The British are probably quietly thankful for the Oregon Treaty, while quietly fuming over American control of the Strait of Juan de Fuca; the Colombians probably go “Huh. They were willing to pay $10 million for the Canal Zone the last time plus rent…maybe we can get $25 million?”


I was referring primarily to any DTUS triggered war with Spain resulting in the Philippines being seized by it. Agree that provided internal disagreements on such a policy could be sorted out the UTUS could well decide to end Spanish rule there although their more likely to both desire an independent Philippines and be rather disappointed at the sort of society that would be developed compared to their values.

I wouldn't expect the DTUS to try and starve the UTUS but I would expect they would apply their own tariff rates on such items passing through their country - especially since its the basis for much of government income at this point - and possibly add on something for costs. They won't be planning on war - at least once they realise how massively overpowered the UTUS is but they will seek political and economic leverage.

They might see it as an act of god but since the outcome is a region in which sodomy is legal, there are laws protecting sexual and racial equality and ideas such as transsexuals are accepted is going to cause a lot of fear and hostility in the down-time world - most especially in the DTUS as its the nearest neighbour and would feel some sense of identity with the UTUS. As such its going to be a complex relationship.

Makes me wonder. I'm not sure what the situation is in Mexico at this point? If there's tension between two or more groups or factions differing social and political values could mean that DTUS and UTUS could end up supporting different factions or interests.

The rest of the world is going to be awed by the UTUS and also deeply interested and concerned about what it says about the 'future' world, both in terms of what they see and what their informed of by UT nationals from there, information from embassies, libraries and the like.

Steve
 
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ATP

Well-known member
I was referring primarily to any DTUS triggered war with Spain resulting in the Philippines being seized by it. Agree that provided internal disagreements on such a policy could be sorted out the UTUS could well decide to end Spanish rule there although their more likely to both desire an independent Philippines and be rather disappointed at the sort of society that would be developed compared to their values.

I wouldn't expect the DTUS to try and starve the UTUS but I would expect they would apply their own tariff rates on such items passing through their country - especially since its the basis for much of government income at this point - and possibly add on something for costs. They won't be planning on war - at least once they realise how massively overpowered the UTUS is but they will seek political and economic leverage.

They might see it as an act of god but since the outcome is a region in which sodomy is legal, there are laws protecting sexual and racial equality and ideas such as transsexuals are accepted is going to cause a lot of fear and hostility in the down-time world - most especially in the DTUS as its the nearest neighbour and would feel some sense of identity with the UTUS. As such its going to be a complex relationship.

Makes me wonder. I'm not sure what the situation is in Mexico at this point? If there's tension between two or more groups or factions differing social and political values could mean that DTUS and UTUS could end up supporting different factions or interests.

The rest of the world is going to be awed by the UTUS and also deeply interested and concerned about what it says about the 'future' world, both in terms of what they see and what their informed of by UT nationals from there, information from embassies, libraries and the like.

Steve

1.Yes,they would treat it not as act of God,but warning of God from become something like them.
2.In Mexico USA always supported masons,and murdered catholics.Nothing would change.
3.Rest of the world - they would kill all revolutionists together.No free Poland,but without commies....well,we supposed to suffer for world anyway.
 

Airedale260

Well-known member
I was referring primarily to any DTUS triggered war with Spain resulting in the Philippines being seized by it. Agree that provided internal disagreements on such a policy could be sorted out the UTUS could well decide to end Spanish rule there although their more likely to both desire an independent Philippines and be rather disappointed at the sort of society that would be developed compared to their values.

I wouldn't expect the DTUS to try and starve the UTUS but I would expect they would apply their own tariff rates on such items passing through their country - especially since its the basis for much of government income at this point - and possibly add on something for costs. They won't be planning on war - at least once they realise how massively overpowered the UTUS is but they will seek political and economic leverage.

They might see it as an act of god but since the outcome is a region in which sodomy is legal, there are laws protecting sexual and racial equality and ideas such as transsexuals are accepted is going to cause a lot of fear and hostility in the down-time world - most especially in the DTUS as its the nearest neighbour and would feel some sense of identity with the UTUS. As such its going to be a complex relationship.

Makes me wonder. I'm not sure what the situation is in Mexico at this point? If there's tension between two or more groups or factions differing social and political values could mean that DTUS and UTUS could end up supporting different factions or interests.

The rest of the world is going to be awed by the UTUS and also deeply interested and concerned about what it says about the 'future' world, both in terms of what they see and what their informed of by UT nationals from there, information from embassies, libraries and the like.

Re: the tariffs.

Ah, I see. Well, what they’ll probably do in this case is relax them for food and the like, but agree to rates on non-essential goods (even today there is a lot of support for protectionism in the U.S.). Hilariously, one side effect is going to be more available bureaucrats/federal employees as well to help set policy, including tariff/border enforcement. So it also becomes a question of how tax policies work, because the income tax didn’t become a thing until 1913 (this time, I’d imagine that it still comes into play but with a 10% cap or something -that was discussed in the original drafting of the amendment, but tax supporters were like “Oh, come on, no politician is going to be stupid enough to jack up rates to like 90%!” -which did actually happen, leading to the various tax breaks and the like once it became obvious that very high taxes DO screw the economy).

Re: Mexico

Mexico at this point is under the rule of Porfirio Diaz (long story short, landowners are getting very rich at this time, Mexico is industrializing, and generally speaking it’s a mostly secular government but without the anticlerical crap going on in, say, France.

U.S.-Mexican relations are mostly stable; the shit didn’t really start hitting the fan until after 1910 (and really after 1913 thanks to Woodrow “Fuckhead” Wilson*). Given the large numbers of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans in the UTUS (plus the fact that the uptimers in general aren’t going to be interested in starting shit after struggling through the dislocation their arrival causes), Washington stays pretty much hands-off.

*-I can almost guarantee that at least ONE attempt is going to be made to murder Wilson (if not several), and the shit he got up to historically is not going to go over well with downtimers and uptimers alike (Wilson only lucked into office in 1912 because TR was dumb enough to split the vote). Teddy himself might still become president (he’s generally recognized as one of the best in American history), but without San Juan Hill to make his reputation it’ll be interesting to see what changes.
 

Buba

A total creep
Mexico will be visited by nostalgic gangsters ... it probably will explode earlier.

Wilson? Good point - there will be hordes of hateful intolerent bigots heading east to kill him and McCarthy and Ford etc. and spread the BLM and LGTB creed. They will get lynched. Thus increasing general IQ but infuriating many Westeners.

The WUSA and Old USA both have waaaay too many things on their plates - sometimes shared plate, sometimes distinct - to care about Phillippines.
 
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Atarlost

Well-known member
Wilson? Good point - there will be hordes of hateful intolerent bigots heading east to kill him and McCarthy and Ford etc. and spread the BLM and LGTB creed. They will get lynched. Thus increasing general IQ but infuriating many Westeners.
For Wilson it's not just the BLM ang LGBT loonies that hate him. He's pretty much the founder of the patronizing white elitist branch of the Democrat party.
 

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