WI: Thirty Years' War ends in a decisive victory for either side

[Skallagrim]

The Austrians would want all Hungary, including all Transylvania, for themselves in the HRE I presume?

For sure. They'd be able to push that through, and it would ensur eternal Habsburg supremacy within the Empire, so it's a really obvious move.

Interesting thought on the PLC aim to get Yedisan, Bessarabia, and Moldavia, to regain access to the Black Sea coast. If they succeed and hold in perpetuity (or till modernity) this cuts off a Russian road to the Balkans.

It helps that the HRE and Poland-Lithuania are bound to b allies here. They can stand back-to-back.

If Wallachia can be pried away from the Ottomans, who is more likely to get it, the PLC or Austria?

The Habsburgs, certainly.

Will the Crimean Khanate fall out of Ottoman vassalage by the late 1700s? If so, into Muscovy-Russia’s sphere, or Poland-Lithuania’s?

It'll probably fall out of the Ottoman sphere, especially if the Ottomans lose the land connection to the West of the region earlier. As to the sphere it then comes into: that depends on a lot of external factors. If Russia and Sweden are still going to fight, that will work to hinder Russian ambitions elsewhere. If Russia and Sweden try to fight (or at least box in) Poland-Lithuania together, that may end p limiting Polish prospects in the region.

Personally, I think Poland-Lithuania will have plenty of work cut out for it in digesting its Eastern holdings properly. Given enough time, it could add a lot of Catholicism there. But that needs a period of consolidation, so no more conquests.

Post 1648, or whatever year peace is made-Brandenburg, Swedish Pomerania, Danish Holstein, Bremen should have no problem repopulating and agriculturally redeveloping their war-devastated lands with all the Protestant refugees from Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Prussia, Bohemia, Hungary, and southern Netherlands available.

I imagine the north German states would all be interested in at least trying out colonial ventures of the plantation and trading variety, but also of the settler variety. Even if any individual states lack the merchant fleet or financial means to start a colonial, they will have surplus subjects ready and eager to participate in other countries’ colonial enterprise. For example, Holstein should get much more populous, and since it was already tied to Denmark politically it could threaten demographic balance in the Danish monarchy. It could also boost Danish colonial efforts. Would German speakers From or passing through Holstein and Schleswig who move to Danish colonies retain German or end up speaking Danish?

Again, a lot depends on how things play out. I could see the Protestant states squabbling, but I could also see them forming a league -- or even gradually working towards a dynastic union of basically all the Lutheran countries. One overall effect is that the Northern German states will be way, way more oriented towards Scandinavia.

Your map has the Austrians taking Geneva with the the rest of Switzerland- that’s interesting. They effectively become more footloose Huguenots wandering Europe and the globe?

I'd expect a lot of Protestants from Switzerland and Geneva to (metaphorically and at times literally) go "down the Rhine" and end up in the Dutch Republic. It'd be the only other Calvinists haven, so it's the natural place to go.

 

[WolfBear]

The Habsburgs, certainly.

Does this result in Wallachia becoming more developed by the present-day? Because generally the ex-Hapsburg parts of Romania also tend to be the most developed ones:



Also, in real life, Wallachia outside of Bucharest had very few Jews in the early 20th century, but if Wallachia goes Hapsburg several centuries before that, will this significantly change?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Romania#/media/File:EvRoMare1930.PNG

I know that Hungary also used to have relatively few Jews but after the Hapsburgs liberated it from the Ottomans, many more Jews subsequently settled there:

YIVO | Hungary: Hungary before 1918

yivoencyclopedia.org

Could the same have occurred with Wallachia in this TL?

(Sorry, but as someone who is a quarter-Jewish, I'm very interested in the Jewish impact of various AH PoDs.)

 

[Skallagrim]

Does this result in Wallachia becoming more developed by the present-day? Because generally the ex-Hapsburg parts of Romania also tend to be the most developed ones:



Also, in real life, Wallachia outside of Bucharest had very few Jews in the early 20th century, but if Wallachia goes Hapsburg several centuries before that, will this significantly change?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Romania#/media/File:EvRoMare1930.PNG

I know that Hungary also used to have relatively few Jews but after the Hapsburgs liberated it from the Ottomans, many more Jews subsequently settled there:

YIVO | Hungary: Hungary before 1918

yivoencyclopedia.org

Could the same have occurred with Wallachia in this TL?

(Sorry, but as someone who is a quarter-Jewish, I'm very interested in the Jewish impact of various AH PoDs.)

It is likely that a Wallachia that's taken by the Habsburgs relatively early on is going to be more developed. Generally speaking, being a peripheral region controlled by the Ottomans or by (post-Golden Horde) Russia is a very bad situation to be in. All major European powers would be an improvement over that, as overlords go.

As far as Jewish migration is concerned, I think they'll "follow the development". If there's more of an economy, there's going to be more work for them. (We are dealing with a time when Jewish occupation limitations were still enforced, so you'd need a reasonably urbanised economy for a region to typically become attractive -- or even really viable -- for Jewish settlement.)

 

[WolfBear]

It is likely that a Wallachia that's taken by the Habsburgs relatively early on is going to be more developed. Generally speaking, being a peripheral region controlled by the Ottomans or by (post-Golden Horde) Russia is a very bad situation to be in. All major European powers would be an improvement over that, as overlords go.

As far as Jewish migration is concerned, I think they'll "follow the development". If there's more of an economy, there's going to be more work for them. (We are dealing with a time when Jewish occupation limitations were still enforced, so you'd need a reasonably urbanised economy for a region to typically become attractive -- or even really viable -- for Jewish settlement.)

That makes sense. Also, FWIW, IIRC, Romanian Jews were historically prevented from living in rural areas, which is why Romania's Jewish population was historically mostly urban. But Wallachia does of course have its own cities, which could significantly increase its size under Hapsburg rule/influence in this TL.

I also wonder if we get to see the Wallachian Renaissance continue for much longer in this TL:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Br%C3%A2ncovenesc_art

 

[Skallagrim]

I've made a crudely edited map elaborating a little more on the Catholic victory scenario, showing the somewhat longer-term outcome:

-- A historian of my acquaintance insiists that in the case of a relatively late victory for the Habsburgs (e.g. not some POD that just ends the war before the Swedes and/or French get involved), the Protestants would be able to hold more of Northern Germany even if they ultimately lose the conflict and get yeeted out of the HRE. Denying Oldenburg to the Habsburgs would be a strategic priority, and with a lot of Protestants already fleeing up North even during the conflict (as their side loses ever more ground), they'd have the overwhelming numerical advantage in the region. I've altered the map to reflect this.

-- I've shown the much-enlarged HRE. I think the conquest of Hungary and Croatia (probably including a slice of Bosnia, which will be culturally shaped by the Croatian/Catholic majority) is very plausible, but the additional conquest of Wallachia strikes me as more iffy. I've opted not to show the latter.

-- Within the HRE, the regions South of the blue line are held by the Spanish Habsburgs. The other possessions of the Spanish Habsburgs are not part of the HRE.

-- I'm pretty sure that Spain would still lose Portugal, but I've depicted them as managing to hold on to the Portuguese bi of North Africa, and subsquently linking that up with the existing Spanish holdings along the North African coast.

-- I've depicted Poland-Lithuania as ultiately losing Courland, primarily because it's already Lutheran, and holding it is going to be tricky as hell. I've also shown some border alterations with Russia, primarily of the "you get this, we get that" variety. I think this would help make the border a bit more sustainable.

 

[Batrix2070]

primarily because it's already Lutheran, and holding it is going to be tricky as hell.

How?
In PLC, it didn't matter that much. The fact that she was Lutheran did not change the fact that the Kurland Princes preferred the Polish Kings to the Swedish ones. Otherwise they would have stabbed us in the back during the Deluge.
As a reminder, the role of religion in the PLC was not as important as in the West. That's why everything passed so peacefully from the Reformation to the Counter-Reformation. It would have been hard as hell for the Swedes to keep Courland.

Anyway, I see the other way around, the defeat of the Protestants causes the border to move north. In view of the defeat of the Swedes, I see that there will be no Armistice of Altmark which stabilized Polish-Swedish relations for a long time.
OTL didn't come to war due to the resistance of the Nobility who were not willing to go to war and its outcome for them was not obvious as it was for us (i.e. total victory of the Commowealth).
Here, as I see it, there should rather be a return to the state of the early 16th century minimum. That is, the entire Inflants return to Poland, only islands and Estonia remain Swedish. In the case of the maximum, they become Polish.

 

[Skallagrim]

How?
In PLC, it didn't matter that much. The fact that she was Lutheran did not change the fact that the Kurland Princes preferred the Polish Kings to the Swedish ones. Otherwise they would have stabbed us in the back during the Deluge.
As a reminder, the role of religion in the PLC was not as important as in the West. That's why everything passed so peacefully from the Reformation to the Counter-Reformation. It would have been hard as hell for the Swedes to keep Courland.

Anyway, I see the other way around, the defeat of the Protestants causes the border to move north. In view of the defeat of the Swedes, I see that there will be no Armistice of Altmark which stabilized Polish-Swedish relations for a long time.
OTL didn't come to war due to the resistance of the Nobility who were not willing to go to war and its outcome for them was not obvious as it was for us (i.e. total victory of the Commowealth).
Here, as I see it, there should rather be a return to the state of the early 16th century minimum. That is, the entire Inflants return to Poland, only islands and Estonia remain Swedish. In the case of the maximum, they become Polish.

With due respect, @Batrix2070, but in the course of reading your various assertions about Polish history and Polish magnificence, I've inevitably developed the distinct impression that in your view of reality, it would only have taken a very little push for everything within the orbit of Neptune to become Polish.

And everyone involved would no doubt have been overjoyed by this, because the problems that plague all lesser entities simply never bother Poland. Not only is Poland the foremost military superpower in the history of the world -- it's also a veritable utopia of religious concordance and harmony, where all disputes just melt away.

In your private reality, Poland can only ever gain and win and triumph. It is not enough for you that Poland should gain lands that in OTL it struggled in vain to conquer. It is not enough for you that we include that much-desired element of Poland-wanks across the multiverse: Intermarium -- access to the Black Sea!

No, in your mind, Poland will just blithely absorb these regions, and digest them without so much as even a tiny hiccup. Because of course, without any doubt, Poland will just expand in all directions. And that's just the "minumum"! Because really, it's only a question of how much Poland will expand. Because who needs pesky details like logistics and manpower and demographic realities? Pah! That's for losers. Poland just does these things, because Poland can into Moldavia, Poland can into Wild Fields, Poland can into Livonia, Poland actually can into Estonia too if it really tries, and Poland most assuredly can into space! Poland can into anything it wants, because Poland is just that fucking great.

 

[Batrix2070]

a dull and irritated response

The answer is, no. None of these things. Note that here he is not proposing a nice makeover in the east, no push in that direction.
I say in this case that once again you are wrong. (For good reason, everyone else likes to always move something at Polish expense in their maps, well I in my maps always move something at someone else's expense, I have no shitty obligation not to do so). Note that I didn't propose anything to conquer Moldavia or snatch something from Turkey although I know there were such attempts, they failed. And in the case of your scenario of the Protestants winning, I objected very strongly to such a senseless reduction of Poland to the status of a minor state, when all the information known to me from OTL rather contradicted any such possibility of this happening.

I didn't say that Poland, in the event of this, would go after half of Germany (i.e. Bohemia plus the Lands up to the Elbe) to steal it because the Protestants are exhausted, I didn't say at all that the Poles would magically hold the East in this scenario when all hands go to the deck against the enemy HRE. Rather the opposite, I rather expect the eastern border to be the loss of Smolensk and Vitebsk, plus the border will be along the Dnieper. That is, events similar to OTL but a few decades earlier.


So I ask How? Magically, Courland, which in the face of the total collapse of Poland, which was the Swedish Deluge, remained a vassal state of Poland and the Kurland princes, despite the opportunity even ideal to break out of the Polish sphere of influence, did not do so OTL, but here because Lutherans so they go to the Swedes? Will you explain this to me?

I know the weakness of the Polish army OTL in this period that they do not like sieges so it was hard for them to capture fortresses, but in the field was unstoppable, only foolish personnel decisions allowed to stupidly wipe out an entire serious army during the civil war. And it wasn't until the destruction of the middle class in PLC by the Deluge that oligarchs like Sapiecha, Sobieski and Czartoryski became so serious that they de facto paralyzed the country for over a century.

So @Skallagrim will you explain to me how?

 

[Skallagrim]

I say in this case that once again you are wrong. (For good reason, everyone else likes to always move something at Polish expense in their maps, well I in my maps always move something at someone else's expense, I have no shitty obligation not to do so).

So @Skallagrim will you explain to me how?

In the first quoted segment above, you reveal your true motives: a giant chip on your shoulder, right there, for all to see.

To the second quoted segment, I shall respond in kind with your own style of reasoning: I have no, ah-- shitty obligation to go along with your pet obsession. You are entitled to your ideas, and I am entitled to roundly ignore them because I frankly find them too biased to be entertained seriously.

 

[Batrix2070]

In the first quoted segment above, you reveal your true motives: a giant chip on your shoulder, right there, for all to see.

To the second quoted segment, I shall respond in kind with your own style of reasoning: I have no, ah-- shitty obligation to go along with your pet obsession. You are entitled to your ideas, and I am entitled to roundly ignore them because I frankly find them too biased to be entertained seriously.

Fine, suit yourself, but don't expect not to be criticized when to my knowledge you're wrong or just setting boundaries how do you like it and think it makes sense.
I'll put your idea of Courland and Inflants makes as much sense as "voluntarily" annexing Gdansk to the HRE because religion.

How you set the border between PLC and Moscow I will not mention, already a stick with access to the sea, it can happen that too far so Poland will not stop Moscow from gaining control of the Gulf of Azov by Moscow.
But fuck man pity, Moscow is going to give a shit about some bits and pieces in Ukraine when its goal all along was Smolensk! At least three or four wars were fought over that city between Poland and Moscow. Without the Smolensk gate, any expansion to the West for Moscow is difficult, because it decides who controls Eastern Europe. This is the explanation why Poland was able to beat and conquer Russia and no one else did afterwards. Because from Smolensk to the heart of Moscow is very close and easy.


Anyway, the scenarios in which Poland always flops are countless all over the Internet, and when someone does the opposite it hurts the eyes. So yes, I'm going to pitch Poland reasonably large somewhere in various normal timelines, and absurdly large in my own. Because I can.

But here? All I'm doing is explaining why a particular scenario is, to put it lightly, meaningless? Because when I see what you write about Poland and how it will work it is immediately apparent that you do not know how the 17th century Poles thought. (I'll hint, they were very reluctant to go to war to take someone else's if they didn't have 100% unalienated rights to it, but just try to raise your hand on their property they'll do anything to make you regret it. A certain Swedish King convinced himself of this PS Well, unless among themselves, in which case they are able to litigate and make a brothel over any piece of land.).

Oh, and I would have forgotten, this talk about how the PLC would ride over the HRE is a literal reversal of what you presented that would supposedly happen to the PLC in the event of a Protestant victory. I understood it this way.

In my opinion, the Emperor you chose will be remembered as an Emperor what knows 8 languages but has nothing to say in any of them. He's literally a compromise candidate who won't really satisfy anyone so he won't be able to do anything except try to keep it together.

Well, and I'll say it again, how is Courland supposed to magically fall into Swedish hands when, with a much better opportunity for the Swedes during the Deluge, it didn't happen? Will you explain to me? To that stupid and stubborn Pole who wants a Poland the size of the seedy solar system and maybe even bigger?

Let me remind you that the Swedish Deluge was such a devastating event for Poland that only World War II matches the percentage of destruction. With the Swedish Deluge being more destructive to Poland. PLC did not recover from that blow, and when it tried it was too late, and its last king was everything but a soldier.

And you lead me to believe that the PLC without this devastating blow which arose because a large part of the nobility and magnates simply betrayed the King while having a strong ally with whom the PLC has no problem, will suddenly lose Courland and its part of the remaining Inflants in a clash with Sweden exhausted by the failed intervention in the HRE?

 

[ATP]

With due respect, @Batrix2070, but in the course of reading your various assertions about Polish history and Polish magnificence, I've inevitably developed the distinct impression that in your view of reality, it would only have taken a very little push for everything within the orbit of Neptune to become Polish.

And everyone involved would no doubt have been overjoyed by this, because the problems that plague all lesser entities simply never bother Poland. Not only is Poland the foremost military superpower in the history of the world -- it's also a veritable utopia of religious concordance and harmony, where all disputes just melt away.

In your private reality, Poland can only ever gain and win and triumph. It is not enough for you that Poland should gain lands that in OTL it struggled in vain to conquer. It is not enough for you that we include that much-desired element of Poland-wanks across the multiverse: Intermarium -- access to the Black Sea!

No, in your mind, Poland will just blithely absorb these regions, and digest them without so much as even a tiny hiccup. Because of course, without any doubt, Poland will just expand in all directions. And that's just the "minumum"! Because really, it's only a question of how much Poland will expand. Because who needs pesky details like logistics and manpower and demographic realities? Pah! That's for losers. Poland just does these things, because Poland can into Moldavia, Poland can into Wild Fields, Poland can into Livonia, Poland actually can into Estonia too if it really tries, and Poland most assuredly can into space! Poland can into anything it wants, because Poland is just that fucking great.

No,you simply do not knew polish History.Till 1648 we have best army in the world,and do not used it,becouse gentry do not wonted wars.And feared/rightly so/ that our Kings would use victorious war to get more power.
Hence we would not take Modavia and Wallahia if we could - becouse gentry would not allow it.
Poland was in theory Kingdom,in practice Republic run by gentry.
They do not waged wars,becouse they do not want it.

And it was paradise - for gentry and jews.Not for peasants,and townspeople could have problems,too.
But,religion? it mattered little.Catholic Gentry would gave his daughter to protestant gentry,maybe even rich merchant,but to polish catholic peasant? NOOOOOO!!!!!!

And ,that is why Courland in OTL keep to Poland even during Deluge - becouse they have their rights/both gentry and townspeople/ when in Sweden they would be servants,not free people.

You realy should explain why Courland who prefered Poland during Delige should join Sweden in scenario when Poland is strong,and why polish gentry which do not let take over Moldavia in OTL should let it now.

 

[WolfBear]

I've made a crudely edited map elaborating a little more on the Catholic victory scenario, showing the somewhat longer-term outcome:

What I like about this map is just how many of the world's Ashkenazi Jewish population it places under PLC rule:

 

[ATP]

What I like about this map is just how many of the world's Ashkenazi Jewish population it places under PLC rule:

Becouse Poland was only country which never persecuted jews.Easy like that.
And we are paing for that till our times.We are truly nation of fools.

 

[WolfBear]

Becouse Poland was only country which never persecuted jews.Easy like that.
And we are paing for that till our times.We are truly nation of fools.

How exactly have the Jews harmed Poland?

 

[ATP]

How exactly have the Jews harmed Poland?

1.Economically - other states get strong ,rich cities,we get jews monopolizing everything there.
2.Politically after Partition - they were loyal to new rulers,even in Russia,not old Poland like polish gentry and townspeople/peasants do not cared-they still were serfs/
3.During 1920 war - they always supported soviets,and we do not punished them
4.In 1939 supported soviets again,and made deal with germans - for ruling themselves in gettos they were treated better then poles till 1941.
5.After 1945 supported soviets again,and when Poland becomed soviet colony they co-ruled it with soviets./polish traitors were almost all cryminals,so they were too stupid for that - good only for breaking bones/
6.After 1956 when Poland from colony becomed vassal state,still co-ruled it - this time with polish traitors who learned till ten.
7.In 1967 they supported Izrael over arabs - and,as result,lost power.Althought still were treated better then poles - officer who leaked info to Izrael only lost jobs,not heads,and those who want go was allowed with most of their riches.Including siver.
Average poles in those time could not live,or only taking their clothes. And do not have silver anymore.
8.After 1990 joined germans lie about "polish death camps" - and still support it.

That would be most of it.

 

[WolfBear]

1.Economically - other states get strong ,rich cities,we get jews monopolizing everything there.
2.Politically after Partition - they were loyal to new rulers,even in Russia,not old Poland like polish gentry and townspeople/peasants do not cared-they still were serfs/
3.During 1920 war - they always supported soviets,and we do not punished them
4.In 1939 supported soviets again,and made deal with germans - for ruling themselves in gettos they were treated better then poles till 1941.
5.After 1945 supported soviets again,and when Poland becomed soviet colony they co-ruled it with soviets./polish traitors were almost all cryminals,so they were too stupid for that - good only for breaking bones/
6.After 1956 when Poland from colony becomed vassal state,still co-ruled it - this time with polish traitors who learned till ten.
7.In 1967 they supported Izrael over arabs - and,as result,lost power.Althought still were treated better then poles - officer who leaked info to Izrael only lost jobs,not heads,and those who want go was allowed with most of their riches.Including siver.
Average poles in those time could not live,or only taking their clothes. And do not have silver anymore.
8.After 1990 joined germans lie about "polish death camps" - and still support it.

That would be most of it.

1. Was it much worse than in the present-day US?

2. I think that they lost a lot of goodwill for Russia after Russia imposed the Pale of Settlement on them, no? That, the pogroms, and anti-Semitic legislation.

3. Ironically, it would have been best for Poland to expel its entire Jewish population to the Soviet Union during or after the Polish-Soviet War. Not as any sort of punishment, of course, but rather as a way to save their lives from the subsequent Holocaust. Too bad that Poles couldn't see the future in regards to this, though.

4. Yes, I think that it was a mistake for Jews to support left-wing radicals in the belief that they would grant Jews equality.

5. The Jews got purged pretty quickly in the post-WWII era in Poland, no?

8. Which Jews pushed the "Polish deaths camps" narrative?

 

[ATP]

1. Was it much worse than in the present-day US?

2. I think that they lost a lot of goodwill for Russia after Russia imposed the Pale of Settlement on them, no? That, the pogroms, and anti-Semitic legislation.

3. Ironically, it would have been best for Poland to expel its entire Jewish population to the Soviet Union during or after the Polish-Soviet War. Not as any sort of punishment, of course, but rather as a way to save their lives from the subsequent Holocaust. Too bad that Poles couldn't see the future in regards to this, though.

4. Yes, I think that it was a mistake for Jews to support left-wing radicals in the belief that they would grant Jews equality.

5. The Jews got purged pretty quickly in the post-WWII era in Poland, no?

8. Which Jews pushed the "Polish deaths camps" narrative?

1.Maybe not - but,compared to West Europe,our economy fall.
2.And still jews prefered Russia to independent Poland.
3.We should do so.And Holocaust happened only becouse Hitler was lucky,and Allies stupid.It should not happened if West had normal politicians.
4.Soviets do not grant them eguality.They grant them absolute power over us.
5.No.They ruled till 1956,and co-ruled till 1968.Even after that they still lived better then not-commies.
8.Look at any Izraeli newspaper.