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What If? WI: Sansa pushes Joffrey over the edge?

Fallout-Man101

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Exactly what it says! After seeing her father head Sansa briefly contemplates pushing Joffrey and herself to her death from the Redkeep, but Sandor picks up on it somehow and subtly stops her.

However, what would happen if say he was either distracted or didn't? What happens whenSansa charges forward suddenly and they both go over the edge to their deaths?

How does this affect The War Of The Five Kings?
 

Val the Moofia Boss

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Obviously Sansa will die, either falling into the pit with Joffery, or being executed for regicide.

Tommen becomes king. While Tommen is a good guy, ultimately he's a boy, and in the show he was rather weak willed and allowed bad actors to run around ruining the kingdom. It's also rather notable that Joffrey - not Tywin, Tyrion, Jaime, or Tommen - was the one who at least paid attention to Nights Watch reports coming from the North. Ultimately I doubt there will be that much of a divergence from canon up until after Robb is shanked.

With Joffrey already dead, there is little chance of an assassination attempt happening. Nobody has a beef with Tommen. Tommen is manipulable enough that Littlefinger would probably prefer to keep Tommen around rather than killing him off (Littlefinger was in on the Joffrey assassination plan in the first place to put Tommen on the throne). With no chaos in the capital, Tyrion won't have an opportunity to shoot dad, so Twyin continues running the kingdom. He will probably make Tommen into a stronger, more willful man, and the High Sparrow nonsense will be avoided.

Real question is when dragon lady and the Others/Walkers come. I see Twyin being much more successful against Dany. In the show Cersei and the Ironborn at least managed to kill one of the three dragons. I can easily see Twyin being able to score at least another kill with a good ambush (be it concealed ballistas, or sneaking an assassin with poison into the enemy camp, or luring the dragons into the dragonpit and killing them, etc). If Dany loses a third dragon to the Walkers, then Dany will be out of dragons and Twyin should be able to easily keep her out of Westeros.

No idea how the Others/Walkers will be dealt with. It seems that the books were leaning towards the idea that perhaps a compromise could be made with the Others. If true then Twyin would probably agree to it. Otherwise, if the Walkers just want to kill everyone, then... I don't know. Not enough dragonglass to kill the Walkers. Probably can't mill enough wildfire to kill them all. And no dragons obviously. Really comes down to whether or not deploying a kill team to assassinate the Night King will actually end the threat (almost certainly not).

If Westeros survives the conflict with the Others/Walkers, then Tommen will probably be an ideal, good king. He will probably make peace with the North. No idea if the North becomes its own country, or stays as a province, but I don't see the surviving Starks being ousted.
 

Fallout-Man101

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I think you are forgetting a few facts here. For one, Robb still has Jaime as a hostage and that could prolong the conflict considering that the Lannister's have none. Would Robb contemplate trading Arya when nobody has seen her anywhere near the Lannister's and they refuse to provide proof they even had her? Would Tywin even contemplate a red wedding like scenario when Jaime could get killed?

Granted the Ironborn would still attack, Robb will loose press for his blunder in leaving The North lightly defended, but the death of his sister in such a public/horrific way will definitely affect the way he acts. He might accelerate his campaign or who knows what else, and if that affects or throws off Robb consorting with Jeyne Westerling the war definitely will drag on longer as Roose won't try anything without the Freys helping.

As for in Kings Landing? Joffery dying so soon into his reign at the start of the war isn't a good omen and court could get thrown into chaos because Tommen isn't as invested into by Cersei as Joff was.

Even then Tommen will be heirless and last in line for the throne by that point. What if Stannis decides to bypass going for Renly and a Mellisandre goes after Tommen? With his death Stannis would be the legitimate king, because their would be no male heirs in the line of succession.
 
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Val the Moofia Boss

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I think you are forgetting a few facts here. For one, Robb still has Jaime as a hostage and that could prolong the conflict considering that the Lannister's have none. Would Robb contemplate trading Arya when nobody has seen her anywhere near the Lannister's and they refuse to provide proof they even had her? Would Tywin even contemplate a red wedding like scenario when Jaime could get killed?
Jaime will likely escape from Robb's camp if another prisoner is put into the same cage as him, as per canon. With Joffrey dead, Jaime might be motivated to break out of jail faster, fearing that something bad could befall his other two children.

If Jaime is still captive by the time the red wedding would have happened, I can see Twyin going ahead with it anyway. He loves Jaime but he's not going to pass up the opportunity to end the war right there. Also, with the help of the Freys and the Boltons, there is a decent chance Jaime will survive the ordeal.

the death of his sister in such a public/horrific way will definitely affect the way he acts. He might accelerate his campaign or who knows what else, and if that affects or throws off Robb consorting with Jeyne Westerling the war definitely will drag on longer as Roose won't try anything without the Freys helping.
I think Catelyn would grieve the death of Sansa but would fear for the rest of her children and try to reign in Robb and prevent him from being too reckless. Unfortunately, canon Robb was already reckless so I could see him diving headlong into the lion's jaws.

Also, even if the Freys and the Boltons don't ambush Robb at the Twins, there are plenty of other points at which they can ambush Robb. If Robb leads an expedition into the Crownlands or the Westerlands, he will be very far from home. It would be pretty easy for the Bolton and Frey armies to help the Lannisters encircle Robb. Then again, logistics don't quite make much sense in the setting, as @Aldarion has pointed out before. If we go with the idea that Westeros is actually continent sized, then the logistics train is just impossible to maintain for that far of a distance. If Westeros is actually Great Britain sized, than maybe. Ultimately Robb needs a lot of local help... but again, it's rather fragile for him.

What if Stannis decides to bypass going for Renly and a Mellisandre goes after Tommen? With his death Stannis would be the legitimate king, because their would be no male heirs in the line of succession.
Hm... perhaps. However, Twyin won't back down even if Tommen is assassinated. The death of two kings in a row would shake the loyalty of those pledged to the Lannisters, but the Lannisters would still be quite a problem. Even by themselves, they hold quite a defensible position.

If after Tommen died, the Tyrells joined Stannis, then I suppose Twyin would be in real trouble. Would be quite a brutal war trying to take King's Landing and Casterly Rock. If Stannis beats the Lannisters, then a peace could come over Westeros. He won't control the whole land but I don't see everybody fighting each other. Everyone might ally to repel Dany and the Others/Walkers.
 

ATP

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Besides "Sansa dead, Tommen King" ...
Robb has no need to keep Jaime alive so it is "off with his head".
Indeed.With Jaime dead,Kastarks would not rebel,and Robb would not marry Westerling girl even if he fuck her.Boltons and Freys would not made Red Wedding.
Result? Robb retake the North,let useless wildling come if they agree to fight/200 giants and Thenn at least/, and,except keeping Wall with useless wildlings,keep destroing one Lannister army after another.Arya would join him instead of becoming ninja.
He would also find Rickon,and execute Ramsay - his father would not mind.
Nightking would not break Wall without dragon,so no great fight there.Dany would come,and Kingslanding would accidentally burn,but she still become Queen there.
Result - less death,independent North.
 

ParadiseLost

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Are we going by books or by show, because things will go very differently depending on it. The age difference is the biggest thing - Tommen is like 8 in the books, but 14 in the show.

Anyway, there's an immediate impact because all of Littlefinger's very Sansa-centric plans just got FUBAR'd. This will mean Littlefinger has no Sansa to project his obsession with Cat on to, and Cat will likely hate him even more.

So this time around, I'd expect Littlefinger to be even more of a disruptive, chaotic influence on King's Landing than before. Not a good thing for the Lannister's.

Cersei will start thinking about the prophecy much earlier, and will probably be even more unhinged than OTL.

I also think y'all are forgetting that, due to Maggy the Frog's prophecy, Cersei's children dying is a when, not an if.

Varys likely has a field day, and I honestly can see him trying to ensure that the Stark's find out that the Lannister's actually have 0 hostages, if he can do so.

I also think that Cat is honestly significantly less likely to release Jaime just to save Arya, so Jaime stays in prison.

Robb will still have to deal with disloyal Karstarks, Boltons, and Freys.

I don't see how Joffrey's death will prevent Robb from marrying the Westerling girl.

However, I do think Joffrey's untimely death would make Bolton significantly more hesitant to change sides.

Also, arguably, Robb and the King of the Iron Islands will still end up dead from Stannis's curse.
 

Buba

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Anyway, there's an immediate impact because all of Littlefinger's very Sansa-centric plans just got FUBAR'd. This will mean Littlefinger has no Sansa to project his obsession with Cat on to, and Cat will likely hate him even more.
Good point. Although I do not remember Cat hating him.

I'd expect Littlefinger to be even more of a disruptive, chaotic influence on King's Landing than before. Not a good thing for the Lannister's.
He wants the chaos to continue and to allow him to rise. Weaker Lannisters are good for him as he can get out more of them. Eliminated Lannisters means he needs to work on somebody else ...

Cersei will start thinking about the prophecy much earlier, and will probably be even more unhinged than OTL.
Yes.
Her perfect baby boy dead!

Varys likely has a field day, and I honestly can see him trying to ensure that the Stark's find out that the Lannister's actually have 0 hostages, if he can do so.
Same as Baelish, Varys wants the chaos to continue. If the Lannisters look too weak and in threat of being eliminated as players in the WO5K, he will prop them up.

I also think that Cat is honestly significantly less likely to release Jaime just to save Arya, so Jaime stays in prison.
With imperfection of communications the Starks are quite likely to learn that "Lannisters murder both Stark daughters" - and Jaime is strung over the boughs of the Godswood ...

Robb will still have to deal with disloyal Karstarks, Boltons, and Freys.
This can play out in various ways. E.g. Robb&Karstarks bond over loss of kin and kill Jaime together.
Freys - will vaccilate after Battle of Blackwater Rush - a battle yet to happen.

I don't see how Joffrey's death will prevent Robb from marrying the Westerling girl.
Agree. But Joff's death can have Robb to be in different place at the time he seduced Jeyne.

However, I do think Joffrey's untimely death would make Bolton significantly more hesitant to change sides.
See House Frey above.

Also, arguably, Robb and the King of the Iron Islands will still end up dead from Stannis's curse.
Do you mean shadowbabied?
IIRC Stannis was sucked dry by Melisandre to make Shadowbaby no.2 so no more.
 
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Airedale260

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Race for the Iron Throne discussed the possibility way back when, but it’s likely that with Joffrey dead, the Starks use Jaime as a bargaining chip to pull out of the war. If the Lannisters can’t cough up Arya, then Jaime stays a hostage until the Starks figure out what to do. It may be that things get delayed until after Stannis’ announcement, at which time the Starks may very well back him rather than go independent.

The big changes are that Tyrion has a much better time of things in King’s Landing since Joffrey isn’t around to fuck things up.

Littlefinger is probably completely at a loss so he’s a wild card. The Tyrells might sign on to a marriage between Tommen and Margaery but the age difference (about 7-8 years) means that it might not be worth it for the Tyrells to get involved, either. Especially if the Lannisters are seen as being so despicable as to murder a young noblewoman (which, as we’ve seen from other stories, especially during the Dance of the Dragons) tends to blow up in the faces of those perceived responsible. The Tyrells are ambitious but I suspect the main players would realize it isn’t an alliance but rather a hostage situation.

I doubt Varys would arrange for an accident to befall Tommen, since between Stannis and Myrcella a lot of lords would shift to the former, which Varys doesn’t want. What he may do is accelerate the process to get Aegon/fAegon back to the capital. Dany probably comes west much sooner (if she can) and then things get even more interesting.

At which point the Starks probably watch this but stay the fuck out, and when warnings start coming south, they take them deadly serious since what’s going on around KL is not their concern.
 

Fallout-Man101

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Hm... perhaps. However, Twyin won't back down even if Tommen is assassinated. The death of two kings in a row would shake the loyalty of those pledged to the Lannisters, but the Lannisters would still be quite a problem. Even by themselves, they hold quite a defensible position.

If after Tommen died, the Tyrells joined Stannis, then I suppose Twyin would be in real trouble. Would be quite a brutal war trying to take King's Landing and Casterly Rock. If Stannis beats the Lannisters, then a peace could come over Westeros. He won't control the whole land but I don't see everybody fighting each other. Everyone might ally to repel Dany and the Others/Walkers.
The only thing the Lannister's could do to maintain power if both Tommen and Joffrey die would be for them to proclaim Myrcella as queen, and that just won't be accepted by most of the realms lords. The Dance Of Dragons ultimately settled the male vs female line of succession precedent when despite having all possible legitimacy in theory Rhaenyra lost.

It would be interesting on the Baratheon side of things, as if Stannis kills Tommen over Renly, then the Tyrell/Stormland Alliance will remain active, and that alone could help strengthen the North's odd's, as Renly could easily launch an invasion on the crownlands on another front further affecting the Lannisters.

We could easily see Renly fight the Lannister's who have proclaimed Myrcella queen on the basis of Roberts brother's being 'traitors' only for the Lannister cause to die when Stannis does the Battle of Blackwater while the Lannister's are too divided fighting both Robb and Renly to meaningfully oppose him.
Are we going by books or by show, because things will go very differently depending on it. The age difference is the biggest thing - Tommen is like 8 in the books, but 14 in the show.
Books, but we can do both scenarios.
 
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