WI: Paraguay, truly Best Guay

[Circle of Willis]

19th-century Paraguay was a strange place. Ultimately their record of erratic leadership caught up with them and their mid-century dictator Francisco Solano López charged into a war with Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay over his ally in the latter Guay losing a civil war to the Brazilian-backed faction. Astonishingly this decision ended poorly with Paraguay being totally overrun, losing a good deal of land and being saved from losing even more only by the arbitration of US President Rutherford Hayes (for which they've named a department after him), and also losing up to 69% of its population, including 90% of its men. López himself died in one of the war's final battles, having fought literally to the last man (and woman, and child). Reportedly their losses were so severe that the Catholic Church temporarily allowed polygamy to repopulate the place.

However, on the outset the war didn't seem as suicidal as it turned out to be for Paraguay. Apparently they started with a bigger army than the Triple Alliance had combined, although it was hobbled by poor logistics & equipment as well as over-centralization of command around the figure of Solano López. As well Uruguay had just gotten out of a civil war (the one where the side López backed lost) and Argentina had been in a state of intermittent civil conflict since 1814. So, what if Paraguay had managed to beat the odds (the earlier the better it would seem, before their big standing army got worn down by attrition while the Triple Alliance mobilized their far greater numbers) and emerged victorious over its enemies?

 

[ATP]

19th-century Paraguay was a strange place. Ultimately their record of erratic leadership caught up with them and their mid-century dictator Francisco Solano López charged into a war with Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay over his ally in the latter Guay losing a civil war to the Brazilian-backed faction. Astonishingly this decision ended poorly with Paraguay being totally overrun, losing a good deal of land and being saved from losing even more only by the arbitration of US President Rutherford Hayes (for which they've named a department after him), and also losing up to 69% of its population, including 90% of its men. López himself died in one of the war's final battles, having fought literally to the last man (and woman, and child). Reportedly their losses were so severe that the Catholic Church temporarily allowed polygamy to repopulate the place.

However, on the outset the war didn't seem as suicidal as it turned out to be for Paraguay. Apparently they started with a bigger army than the Triple Alliance had combined, although it was hobbled by poor logistics & equipment as well as over-centralization of command around the figure of Solano López. As well Uruguay had just gotten out of a civil war (the one where the side López backed lost) and Argentina had been in a state of intermittent civil conflict since 1814. So, what if Paraguay had managed to beat the odds (the earlier the better it would seem, before their big standing army got worn down by attrition while the Triple Alliance mobilized their far greater numbers) and emerged victorious over its enemies?

Dude was mad.He killed half of bishops till remain declared him Saint.
So,he would do sometching stupid and lost next war even more.If he committ more crimes on other countries,country could cease to exist as a result,and USA would not help them.

 

[gral]

López himself died in one of the war's final battles,

The last one; military resistance had ended after the Battle of Campo Grande(Acosta Ñú for the Paraguayans) on August 16th, 1869, and the war became a chase after López's forces, until the Brazilian Army caught the about 450 remaining men at their encampment at Cerro Corá on March 1st, 1870. Also, yes, the guy wasn't right on the head; comparing him to Hitler is too cheap(and he didn't manage to cause the damage Hitler did to others), but I don't think it's too wrong to compare him to Saddam Hussein.

As for Paraguay winning the war; he counted on the caudillos of Corrientes and Entre-Ríos joining him(there was popular sympathy for López and popular antipathy towards the Brazilians and Mitre there). They didn't(mostly because of Brazilian diplomacy/bribes, partly because the Paraguayan Army couldn't restrain itself from plundering the region as they passed through it on their way to Uruguay). If López had denied the use of the Argentinian territory as a base and logistical center for the Alliance armies in Paraguay, the War would have gone on for much longer, and would have probably become unwinnable by the Alliance.

Another thing; before the War, Paraguay bought 6 ironclad coastal/riverine gunboats from British and French yards. Brazilian diplomacy managed to prevent their delivery, and after the Battle of Riachuelo and the blockade of the Paraguayan territory, acquired the vessels(4 central battery/casemate ironclads, 2 turreted monitors). These would have played a big part in the war had López got them.