WI: Early Popularis victory over Sulla

[Circle of Willis]

In 84 BC the Roman Republic was on the precipice of its first major civil war between the Populares (populists) and Optimates (conservatives). Unfortunately for the former their chief since Gaius Marius died at age 70 a few years prior, and then his co-Consul & Popularis co-leader Lucius Cornelius Cinna was killed by his own mutinying troops, who then apparently disintegrated (them not wanting to fight fellow Romans was said to have been a cause for them turning against him). With the Populares lacking the capable leadership of Cinna and stuck in a state of disorder, once hostilities kicked off they were routed (despite seemingly starting in the more advantageous position over their rivals) within a matter of years by the Optimates under Lucius Cornelius Sulla Felix and of their remaining leaders, only Quintus Sertorius managed to hold out in Spain.

So: what if Cinna is able to avert the fatal mutiny, persuade his men to fight the Optimates (because regardless of their reservations about waging a civil war, as the next few years demonstrated, the Optimates certainly had no problem fighting and killing Populares), successfully lead the Populares to victory and eliminate Sulla instead by no later than 81-80 BC - by extension also taking all of his conservative reforms to the Roman constitution off the board?

Worth noting that Cinna wouldn't be alone among the populist leadership. Gaius Marius' son, Marius Junior, was another one of the major Popularis commanders of this conflict and was still a pretty young guy (not even 30 yet) at the time of his death by suicide to avoid being captured by Sulla - he wasn't his father's equal, but based on his name & limited abilities, might he not play a considerable role in Cinna's government? The same may be true of his cousin, and Cinna's son-in-law...a certain youngling named Gaius Julius Caesar.

 

[stevep]

In 84 BC the Roman Republic was on the precipice of its first major civil war between the Populares (populists) and Optimates (conservatives). Unfortunately for the former their chief since Gaius Marius died at age 70 a few years prior, and then his co-Consul & Popularis co-leader Lucius Cornelius Cinna was killed by his own mutinying troops, who then apparently disintegrated (them not wanting to fight fellow Romans was said to have been a cause for them turning against him). With the Populares lacking the capable leadership of Cinna and stuck in a state of disorder, once hostilities kicked off they were routed (despite seemingly starting in the more advantageous position over their rivals) within a matter of years by the Optimates under Lucius Cornelius Sulla Felix and of their remaining leaders, only Quintus Sertorius managed to hold out in Spain.

So: what if Cinna is able to avert the fatal mutiny, persuade his men to fight the Optimates (because regardless of their reservations about waging a civil war, as the next few years demonstrated, the Optimates certainly had no problem fighting and killing Populares), successfully lead the Populares to victory and eliminate Sulla instead by no later than 81-80 BC - by extension also taking all of his conservative reforms to the Roman constitution off the board?

Worth noting that Cinna wouldn't be alone among the populist leadership. Gaius Marius' son, Marius Junior, was another one of the major Popularis commanders of this conflict and was still a pretty young guy (not even 30 yet) at the time of his death by suicide to avoid being captured by Sulla - he wasn't his father's equal, but based on his name & limited abilities, might he not play a considerable role in Cinna's government? The same may be true of his cousin, and Cinna's son-in-law...a certain youngling named Gaius Julius Caesar.

Don't know enough about the time period but its likely to change a few things. Your still likely to have continued problems because the current system wasn't suited to an empire that already ruled such a vast area. Possibly you see some reversing of the concentration of wealth and power under the optimates but their still going to be very influential and unless you break up the large landed estates - which would cause a hell of a lot of problems in itself such as what happens with all the slaves - that's not going to change.

You need some way in which a Republican system with broad support can be modified to govern an extensive empire and that's never that easy.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Oh certainly, I don't think Cinna (or whoever else of that timeframe, actually!) was a miracle worker who could solve all of the Late Republic's issues if only he had survived. Cinna himself seems to have tried his best to work within the existing legal-political framework of the Republic, kept his purge pretty limited compared to Sulla's (IIRC it was Marius who wanted to go completely hog wild on their enemies while Sulla was away fighting Pontus) and had a pretty moderate agenda for a Popularis - citizenship & enfranchisement for the Socii was his big thing, I assume he'll throw entrenching the grain dole & tribunician powers and sacrosanctness (standard fare for the populists) as much as Sulla tried to entrench patrician privileges on top of that as well. Hardly as radical as Sulla's own reforms were in the opposite direction IMO, much less Caesar's assumption of a lifetime dictatorship.

Further thoughts - I think an early elimination of the Optimates clears the path for infighting between the Populares (akin to Octavian vs. Marc Antony come early) actually, since without a common enemy they can start duking it out for the position of the 'First Man' of Rome without fear of being overrun by their factional enemies. I could see Marius Junior butting heads with his cousin Caesar for the position of top dog once Cinna's no longer around to mediate, as an ironic mirror to the First Triumvirate's collapse following the death of Crassus - Marius Junior had his Optimate father-in-law (a guy who was the Pontifex Maximus at the time, even!) killed to spite Sulla shortly before his ultimate defeat so clearly family ties aren't going to be an obstacle for whatever ambitions he harbors, and Caesar is well...Caesar.

That said, aside from having to wait for Cinna to die (he was only 46 when he was lynched by his men IRL, so excepting bad luck or worse lifestyle habits, I think it's fair to say he probably has at least another decade or two, maybe even three - his buddy Marius Senior, as mentioned, made it to 70) the Populares are going to have to contend with the surviving Optimates in the short order, and the latter will be in dire need of leaders. I foresee a lot of the younger opportunists who historically threw in with the Optimates once it became clear that they'd come out on top, like Catiline and Pompey, aligning with the Populares for survival & power's sake instead, so it won't be them (they're more likely to throw their hats into the ring vs. Marius Junior & Caesar later). Maybe someone like Crassus, Metellus Pius or Lucullus can be the one to play the Optimates' swan song, or if they're really lucky, pull a reverse Sertorius and hold out somewhere (probably Greece/Macedonia, but if it's Crassus he can actually literally be the 'Optimate Sertorius' because he initially fled to Spain ahead of Cinna's wrath) for a while.

 

[ATP]

They would end as Empire anyway - which mean some kind of imperator leading them.
Big Republics do not survive.

But,as a result,Republic could be more popular after fall of Rome.In OTL there was only Venetia and later Poland,now it could change.

 

[bintananth]

They would end as Empire anyway - which mean some kind of imperator leading them.
Big Republics do not survive.

But,as a result,Republic could be more popular after fall of Rome.In OTL there was only Venetia and later Poland,now it could change.

Exactly.

Gaius Julius Caesar wasn't a great general if you actually read what he wrote about his campaigns ... which were meant to make him look good.

His invasion of Great Britain was not well thought out. In Gaul and other parts of his life he was usually extricating himself from a trap he waded into or got caught in.