WI ASBs separate Europe from Asia and Africa by 100-200 mile minimums in most places & down to 50 in the Caucasus in 700 AD?

[raharris1973]

WI ASBs separate Europe from Asia and Africa by 100-200 mile minimums in most places & down to 50 in the Caucasus in 700 AD?

Do better moats, make better neighbors, at least for longer periods of time?



Will Spain and Sicily be pretty safe from Moorish/Saracen invasion? Will the isolated portion of the Caliphate's Caucasus provinces, inhabited by Persians, Armenians, and Georgians, be pretty vulnerable to Khazar conquest, local revolt, or both? Will Byzantine Asia Minor, further away from Constantinople, Greece, and Thrace, be more vulnerable to assaults from the Caliphate over the next century or two, compared with OTL? Or will Muslim conquest of that region still have to await migratory reinforcement by Turks. How is Europe handling the literal "chilling effect" of literally everything being move 100-200 miles north, especially Scandinavia now getting a more narrowly channelled flow of the Gulf Stream - will that kill the Viking age by deep freezing and starving it?

Will Europe run out of nomadic invaders earlier - maybe miss out on some of its Magyars, or if not them, at least miss out on some of its various and sundry Cumans, Polovtsy, Pechenegs, Patzinaks, Tatars, and, of course, Mongols, over the next 500-700 years with the water barrier around the Ural Mountains extending from the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian Seas to the Arctic Ocean?

EDIT: edited all maps, 9 Nov, to have Africasiaustralia slide south and east instead of sliding Europe north and west

 

[raharris1973]

Alternatively, how would world geopolitics go down from 700 AD, if world geography were altered by ASBs to do this, detaching all Europe and Siberia and Central Asia from the rest of Asia? At its narrowest points separated by only Bosporus-style straits in Central Asia, or if you prefer, a Central Asian lake enclosed by a super-narrow isthmus on each side:



Here, the risks of harsh cooling of Northern Europe remain and get a little worse. But the new water courses also open up potential for Greek and Persian maritime voyaging east to northern China, Korea, and Japan.

EDIT: Maybe, if I'm going to be Eurocentric about it, and I want to mitigate the risks of excessive cooling in Europe, I could re-do the maps, and move *everybody else*, Africa, Asia, and Australia - south and east, instead of changing European latitude.

 

[raharris1973]

Another map, with the same concept as the OP, just a few centuries later in history, at 1350 AD



Or, the Europe with Siberia version:

 

[Free-Stater 101]

The one with Siberia added to Europe is the one I find most interesting; Europe probably won't be as economically ascendant due to the fact that the Chinese Empire now has an un diseased water superhighway to Europe making an early technological change much more likely.

And that's not even touching upon the changes these new inland seas' make to the environment themselves the Trans-Siberian Sea for example borders Xinjiang province and the Taklamakan desert which will obviously make it more profitable as well as habital real-estate for setters looking to establish new trading outpost between Asia and Europe.

For Europe however it's not good England now has the climate of Scotland and almost every country on the continent is doomed to famine with the Mediterranean Powers being the strongest, France and Germany's power will be greatly decreased and in the east the Kievan Rus will most likely become the central authority there with the Mongols now hampered and them lying along a river which now connects the soon to be largest trading waterway on earth.

The Byzantines regardless of scenario will hang on without the Turks to deal with and thus the Eastern Orthodox stays based there but it's debatable how prominent they will remain, especially in the later scenario with their wealth diminishing due to the European Freeze.

 

[Buba]

Here and in the posts below I am replying to the concept of
Europe stays where it is, Asia and Africa shunted to SE.
Regardless of maritime currents (maybe tail end of Gulf Stream flows down the Ural Strait?) 1350AD, same as 700AD is still warmer than today (fuck off AGW cultists!). The Medieval Optimum is coming - in 700AD, or still there (if waning) - 1350AD.


In both cases there is a Northeast Passage around EUROPE. Never to the Pacific, though. So what that the north end is iced over for 3-5 months? It is open for the rest of the year. And in the high summer you can navigate 24/7 - midnight sun, remember? - leading to faster passage times.
This is a beach in Archangielsk:

THat's 65N, folks ...

The issue is finding seafarers to sail it. In 700AD the only sailors available are Greeks. Not sure if Levantines or - once they discover shipbilding, Sogdians - could join in the fun. If unstiffled by the State, Roman enterpreneours should poke at the newly opened routes. Would they finally work their way around Scandinavia? Who knows ...
Nevertheless, I consider as unquestionable maritime traffic up to OTL southern tip of Urals.

By 1350AD versus 700AD THere have been advances in technology and the pool of descobradores has grown - Venetians and Genuans, other Meditteraneans, the Hansa - near the height of its power, BTW, maybe Novgorod (although prolly more as a seller, than active maritime trader). With more private enterprise than in 700AD I expect both faster exploration AND circumnavigation of Europe.

As you have added the Caspian to the worldocean maritime trade now reaches Persia. The non-Moslem holdouts in north Persia - e.g. Tabaristan - are a mixed bag. On one hand they lost their coastal lands (sea level up by c.22m), on the other hand they now should be a bit wetter. And have access to non-Moslem world by sea.

Islam north of Sarmatian Strait (let us call the Caucasian passage thus) is wiped out, I think.
Khazars are hit by loss of North Caspian steppe, most of them drowning (on the innacurate map below, Sarai and Saraichik are both underwater). It is possible that Turkic people "stranded" in Europe get Finnishised (think Magyars on steroids) or maybe re-Iranianised by Neo-Sarmatians, i.e. Alans, if on the northern side, could become the local power and keep the area Iranian speaking and Orthodox. In the longer run - probably Slavicised?

Something you should remember is the Silk Road changes a LOT. Unlike in your other scenario (mega Suez Canal) it still goes by camelback to Central Asia. However, there is a river called the Uzboy (look it up) which makes e.g. Samarkand reachable by ship.
If not by ship, then by barge. Urgench on the south coast of Lake Aral doubtlessly becomes a seaport. This lowers costs for the middle leg of the Silk Road at least tenfold, and eliminates the final leg through the ME. Yes, the Silk Road now ends in today's Uzbekistan (some bolder souls could take the northern route and the terminal would be somewhere around OTL Orenburg or Magnitogorsk (where "Saraichik (however we understand it) is supposedly located). Land leg - the expensive part - is cut down by half.

 

[Buba]

700AD

Will Spain and Sicily be pretty safe from Moorish/Saracen invasion?

No. Safer, but not safe.

Will the isolated portion of the Caliphate's Caucasus provinces, inhabited by Persians, Armenians, and Georgians, be pretty vulnerable to Khazar conquest, local revolt, or both?

Yes.

Will Byzantine Asia Minor, further away from Constantinople, Greece, and Thrace, be more vulnerable to assaults from the Caliphate over the next century or two, compared with OTL?

No.

Or will Muslim conquest of that region still have to await migratory reinforcement by Turks.

Yes.
But maybe a wetter/richer Central Asia beats off all Turkic invasions and there are no Truks in ME evah.
Also, Manzikert was a fluke.

Will Europe run out of nomadic invaders earlier

Oh, yes.

 

[Buba]

1350AD
Top of mind - Golden Horde is wrecked by losing half of its territory to transgression (its capital is underwater) or being cut off by a strait. It is then destroyed by its many enemies. In Europe this means Lithuania. Lithuanians conquer even more than in OTL, Poland included, convert to Orthodoxy and the Wawel Cathedral in their capital city Krokuva has a nice onion on it.

Ottoman Turks never catch a glimpse of Europe.

Central Asia gets richer:
- wetter?
- terminal for Silk Road
- can export wares to Eurpean markets by sea

 

[Buba]

"Siberian Variant"
Too wild for me
Nevertheless, here I am worried about effect on Indian and SEA monsoons. This could be genocide for India.

 

[Agent23]

An excellent present for the coronation of the great Bulgarian Khan Tervel.
This can easily turn into Bulgariawhank, since now it will be much harder for the Byzantines to defend their possessions in Thrace, and Asia Minor will be hard pressed to get reinforcement from the European themes.

So, easy pickings for us, and possibly Constantinople gets taken by the Arabs who were encircling it a mere 17 years later.
This will make the situation in Byzantium even worse, since a period of internal turmoil was already stetting in OTL.

Bulgeriand might still become Christians thanks to the Byzantine territories we are likely to gain easily from this situation and any climatic changed will be of minimal damage.

Then we can consolidate all of the Balkans under our controls, christianize(or Islamise) the other Slavic tribes and take over the rest of Europe.
No more golden horn means easier commerce for us and potentially a drive to improve our seafaring capabilities.

Our control of the mouth of the Danubr probably becomes even more valuable, since it will let central and northern Europe trade easily with Asia and Africa.


In addition this will likely help the Volga Bulgars, too, In OTL they were a major trade hub, depending on where the cut is in relation to the Volga and Kama Rivers they might gsin easy sea access.

 

[raharris1973]

An excellent present for the coronation of the great Bulgarian Khan Tervel.
This can easily turn into Bulgariawhank, since now it will be much harder for the Byzantines to defend their possessions in Thrace, and Asia Minor will be hard pressed to get reinforcement from the European themes.

So, easy pickings for us, and possibly Constantinople gets taken by the Arabs who were encircling it a mere 17 years later.
This will make the situation in Byzantium even worse, since a period of internal turmoil was already stetting in OTL.

Bulgeriand might still become Christians thanks to the Byzantine territories we are likely to gain easily from this situation and any climatic changed will be of minimal damage.

Then we can consolidate all of the Balkans under our controls, christianize(or Islamise) the other Slavic tribes and take over the rest of Europe.
No more golden horn means easier commerce for us and potentially a drive to improve our seafaring capabilities.

Our control of the mouth of the Danubr probably becomes even more valuable, since it will let central and northern Europe trade easily with Asia and Africa.


In addition this will likely help the Volga Bulgars, too, In OTL they were a major trade hub, depending on where the cut is in relation to the Volga and Kama Rivers they might gsin easy sea access.

I can imagine Bulgaria benefiting relative to OTL, because Byzantine Thrace and Greece, relatively weaker and smaller at this point than other times, will be further away from Byzantine reinforcements from the Asia Minor heart of the empire. The closest reinforcements for the city and the Balkans are the Mediterranean islands like Sicily, and bits of Italy, but they are scattered. But Byzantium still has its navy. It makes no sense it would make Arab conquest of Constantinople easier. The logistics of Arabs getting to the city and Thrace are now longer, harder, and stormier.

What the Arabs might find easier is if they switch targets from Constantinople to a campaign focused on Asia Minor/Anatolia, next door, trying to grab it bite by bite and never letting up on Razziahs.

Also if this was a point where the Romans reoccupied any of North Africa around Tunis, the greater distance from Greece and Sicily now makes the second and permanent Arab conquest even more permanent than it was.

If the Bulgarians conquer and hold all the Balkans, maybe for a couple decades without the city- but a century later, maybe a betrayal happens after it shrinks? Bulgaria will be powerful. Bulgaria *could* stay pagan. It could take over the Church from the Byzantines. Or it could accept Christianity from the Pope. I do not think Islam is likely adopted early because back in Abbasid and Umayyad times it implied becoming a subject of the earthly Caliph.
A wildcard could be Bulgarian Kings pulling a Khazars and adopting Judaism.

 

[Agent23]

I can imagine Bulgaria benefiting relative to OTL, because Byzantine Thrace and Greece, relatively weaker and smaller at this point than other times, will be further away from Byzantine reinforcements from the Asia Minor heart of the empire. The closest reinforcements for the city and the Balkans are the Mediterranean islands like Sicily, and bits of Italy, but they are scattered. But Byzantium still has its navy. It makes no sense it would make Arab conquest of Constantinople easier. The logistics of Arabs getting to the city and Thrace are now longer, harder, and stormier.

Um, no, read up on the siege on Constantinople that I linked.
Also, Constantinople is actually situated on both sides of the Bosporus and some islands in the middle.
The change has literally torn it apart.

What the Arabs might find easier is if they switch targets from Constantinople to a campaign focused on Asia Minor/Anatolia, next door, trying to grab it bite by bite and never letting up on Razziahs.

The nature of Constantinople was a key element in Byzantium's defenses.

If the Bulgarians conquer and hold all the Balkans, maybe for a couple decades without the city- but a century later, maybe a betrayal happens after it shrinks? Bulgaria will be powerful. Bulgaria *could* stay pagan. It could take over the Church from the Byzantines. Or it could accept Christianity from the Pope. I do not think Islam is likely adopted early because back in Abbasid and Umayyad times it implied becoming a subject of the earthly Caliph.
A wildcard could be Bulgarian Kings pulling a Khazars and adopting Judaism.

Given prior Bulgarian experiences with the Khazars us adopting their religion is very unlikely.

If anything, they might replace Byzantium as our primary enemy.


Latinization is possible.

 

[raharris1973]

Um, no, read up on the siege on Constantinople that I linked.
Also, Constantinople is actually situated on both sides of the Bosporus and some islands in the middle.
The change has literally torn it apart.

The nature of Constantinople was a key element in Byzantium's defenses.

Given prior Bulgarian experiences with the Khazars us adopting their religion is very unlikely.

If anything, they might replace Byzantium as our primary enemy.


Latinization is possible.

On Constantinople, I was counting the European part only. If you are counting Asian parts of the city too. Yes, they could easily fall to the Arabs. So going by the map, I don't see all the landings at Sestis, Kallipolis, Hebdomon, Sosthenon, Galata, and the set up of the double-siege wall, opposite the Anastasian Wall on the European side happening. But on the Asian side, Chrysopolis, Chalcedon, Hieria, and the Princess Islands can all be dead meat in the face of Arab attack at 717-718. Siege of Constantinople (717–718) - Wikipedia

 

[Buba]

700AD
True that Constantinople and Chalcedon are now separate by 150-300 km of sea. This will make things more difficult for the Romans. However, unlike Arabs and Avars or Bulgars, they have a navy (I now, the Arabs built one too) and institutional knowledge how to move the army about the Mediterranean. Defense of Anatolia will be more difficult, but I am not sure if impossible to keep.
Same applies to the other direction - Anatolia helping Thrace is also less easy.
For Italy and Sicily nothing really changes for the ERE - same distance. And still threatened from the south - if in OTL Arabs could set up a slaving camp in south France or raid Sardinia/Corsica, conquer the Balearics, the ITTL more distant Italy is still within range. Or did the West Mediterranean conquests/raids come from the Spanish east coast?

A thought - with a passage to the Caspian the ERE repeats Heraklius' exploits of a century ago and strikes at Arab flank/rear in Persia? in Sogdia? Brings in Goturk mercenaries by sea?

There is no "Bulgaria accepting Christianity from the Pope". At this point in time the Roman Patriarch is at best a peer to the fellow in Tsarograd. At worst - he gets exiled to Crimea and is happy that he did not have his nose chopped off. The Church is still both Orthodox i.e. the correct one and Catholic i.e. universal. Bulgaria will do what it did in OTL - at some point declare Autocephaly. With large enough army to back such an ecclesiastic development (eventualy) will be acknowledged by the other Patriarchates (i.e. Constantinople).

 

[raharris1973]

700AD
True that Constantinople and Chalcedon are now separate by 150-300 km of sea. This will make things more difficult for the Romans. However, unlike Arabs and Avars or Bulgars, they have a navy (I now, the Arabs built one too) and institutional knowledge how to move the army about the Mediterranean. Defense of Anatolia will be more difficult, but I am not sure if impossible to keep.
Same applies to the other direction - Anatolia helping Thrace is also less easy.
For Italy and Sicily nothing really changes for the ERE - same distance. And still threatened from the south - if in OTL Arabs could set up a slaving camp in south France or raid Sardinia/Corsica, conquer the Balearics, the ITTL more distant Italy is still within range. Or did the West Mediterranean conquests/raids come from the Spanish east coast?

A thought - with a passage to the Caspian the ERE repeats Heraklius' exploits of a century ago and strikes at Arab flank/rear in Persia? in Sogdia? Brings in Goturk mercenaries by sea?

There is no "Bulgaria accepting Christianity from the Pope". At this point in time the Roman Patriarch is at best a peer to the fellow in Tsarograd. At worst - he gets exiled to Crimea and is happy that he did not have his nose chopped off. The Church is still both Orthodox i.e. the correct one and Catholic i.e. universal. Bulgaria will do what it did in OTL - at some point declare Autocephaly. With large enough army to back such an ecclesiastic development (eventualy) will be acknowledged by the other Patriarchates (i.e. Constantinople).

Good evaluation- I think the island expeditions to balearics, Crete, came mainly from Spanish east coast. With new map, I think Sicily and Crete would be more reachable than Spain for Arabs, if any were.

 

[raharris1973]

The one with Siberia added to Europe is the one I find most interesting; Europe probably won't be as economically ascendant due to the fact that the Chinese Empire now has an un diseased water superhighway to Europe making an early technological change much more likely.

And that's not even touching upon the changes these new inland seas' make to the environment themselves the Trans-Siberian Sea for example borders Xinjiang province and the Taklamakan desert which will obviously make it more profitable as well as habital real-estate for setters looking to establish new trading outpost between Asia and Europe.

For Europe however it's not good England now has the climate of Scotland and almost every country on the continent is doomed to famine with the Mediterranean Powers being the strongest, France and Germany's power will be greatly decreased and in the east the Kievan Rus will most likely become the central authority there with the Mongols now hampered and them lying along a river which now connects the soon to be largest trading waterway on earth.

The Byzantines regardless of scenario will hang on without the Turks to deal with and thus the Eastern Orthodox stays based there but it's debatable how prominent they will remain, especially in the later scenario with their wealth diminishing due to the European Freeze.

Yes, this is an interesting variation, whether you move Europe and Siberia north, or Africa and Asia south.

Moving Europe and Siberia north makes transatlantic ‘stepping stones’ via Norway-Scotland-Iceland-Greenland-Newfoundland-North America shorter than OTL, but at the price of chilling and impoverishing Northern European civilization (Scandinavia, Britain, Netherlands, north Germany, Baltic).

 

[raharris1973]

Um, no, read up on the siege on Constantinople that I linked.
Also, Constantinople is actually situated on both sides of the Bosporus and some islands in the middle.
The change has literally torn it apart.

The nature of Constantinople was a key element in Byzantium's defenses.

Given prior Bulgarian experiences with the Khazars us adopting their religion is very unlikely.

If anything, they might replace Byzantium as our primary enemy.


Latinization is possible.

What is the bad prior experiences with Khazars by 700 AD? Did the Khazars basically push the Bulgars out of Old Great Bulgaria in eastern Ukraine and Donets and Kuban?

 

[Agent23]

What is the bad prior experiences with Khazars by 700 AD? Did the Khazars basically push the Bulgars out of Old Great Bulgaria in eastern Ukraine and Donets and Kuban?

Some were pushed out and some were subjugated.
They were an enemy, and also, OGB held the Crimea as well.

 

[gral]

Something that has just come up to mind: What would be the effects of a wider, more connected Mediterranean in regards to storms and the like?

 

[raharris1973]

Something that has just come up to mind: What would be the effects of a wider, more connected Mediterranean in regards to storms and the like?

Probably more storms?

 

[raharris1973]

In the 1350 AD scenarios, both the aural-Caspian sea version and the Euro-Siberian version, I suspect that Muscovy will still be clearly marching east like OTL to the Caspian shore and taking the Urals by 1550-1600 ish. From there, it will have every incentive to start building a trade and war fleet to press on to communicate with the Asian side. That is even with it not having a monopoly and having Italian, Greek, Turkish, Persian competitors at different times. In the ‘Siberia comes with’ version’ also East Asian fleets or pirates at times.