What's the worst-case scenario for Palestinians between 1987 and today if Hamas is not founded and does not launch active terror operations from 1987?

raharris1973

Well-known member
Here are some notable events in its 37 year history:

1988 - The covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement is published. The group presents itself as an alternative to the PLO.

1989 - An Israeli court convicts Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin of ordering Hamas members to kidnap and kill two Israeli soldiers.

April 1994 - Hamas orchestrates its first suicide bombing. Five are killed in the Israeli city of Hedera.

February to March 1996 - The Palestinian Authority cracks down on Hamas, after a series of Hamas-orchestrated suicide bombings in Israel kill more than 50 people. Palestinian President Yasser Arafat condemns the bombings, referring to them as "a terrorist operation." Later, the PNA arrests approximately 140 suspected Hamas members.

1997 - Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin is released from prison.

1999 - King Abdullah of Jordan closes down Hamas headquarters in Jordan.

2001 - The U.S. State Department lists Hamas on its official list of terrorist groups.

June 12, 2003 - A suicide bomber disguised as an ultra-orthodox Jew detonates himself on a Jerusalem bus, killing 16 Israelis. Hamas claims responsibility.

August 20, 2003 - A suicide bomber detonates himself on a bus killing at least 20 Israelis. Hamas and Islamic Jihad claim responsibility.

Don't Miss

January 2004 - The first Hamas female suicide bomber kills four Israelis at Erez crossing in a joint operation with the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.

March 14, 2004 - Hamas and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades claim responsibility for a double attack at the Israeli port of Ashdod that kills 10 Israelis.

March 22, 2004 - Hamas leader Yassin is killed by Israeli air strikes.

March 23, 2004 - Dr. Abdel Aziz Rantisi is named as Yassin's successor.

April 17, 2004 - Rantisi is killed by an Israeli air strike on his car.

August 31, 2004 - The Islamic militant group Hamas claims responsibility for deadly simultaneous explosions on two buses in the southern Israeli city of Beer Sheva that killed at least 14 people and wounding more than 80.

September 26, 2004 - A leading member of Hamas, Izz Eldin Subhi Sheikh Khalil, is killed by a car bomb as he leaves his home in Damascus, Syria.

December 12, 2004 - An attack at a checkpoint on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt kills five Israelis. Hamas claims responsibility.

January 14, 2005 - A bomb at the Karni crossing at the Israel-Gaza border kills six Israelis. Hamas claims responsibility.

January 25, 2006 - Hamas, running as the "Change and Reform Party," participates for the first time in Palestinian parliamentary elections. The group is fielding 62 candidates.

January 26, 2006 - Hamas wins a landslide victory in the Palestinian legislative elections. Hamas wins 76 seats, and Fatah 43 seats in the 132-seat Palestinian Legislative Council, giving Hamas a majority.

March 29, 2006 - The new Palestinian Prime Minister, Ismail Haniya, and his cabinet are sworn in. The governments of the United States and Canada say they will have no contact with the Hamas-led Palestinian government.

June 25, 2006 - Hamas militants attack an Israeli military post and kill two soldiers. A third, Gilad Shalit, is kidnapped. The Palestinian government denies any knowledge of the attack.

Early June 2007 - After a week of battles between Hamas and Fatah, Hamas seizes control of Gaza. Read a profile of Gaza

June 14, 2007 - Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas dissolves the government and dismisses Ismail Haniya as Prime Minister. Haniya rejects this and remains the de facto leader in Gaza.

April 18-19, 2008 - Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter meets with exiled Hamas leader Khalid Meshaal, in Damascus, Syria.

June 2008 - Cease-fire truce between Hamas and Israel negotiated by Egypt goes into effect. Hamas agrees to stop firing rockets at Israeli border communities and Israel will allow limited trade into and out of Gaza. The cease-fire has a six-month deadline.


December 19, 2008 - Hamas formally ends cease-fire with Israel. Attacks between the two had continued the entire time to some degree, escalating more in November.

From December 24, 2008 - The rocket attacks from Hamas increase and so do the retaliation air strikes from Israel.


-------- note the relative paucity, infrequency, and low-scale of terrorist events, basically a double-murder, prior to the Oslo I Agreement of August 1993. Their charter pledging destruction and replacement of Israel certainly was written and proclaimed as early as 1988, but its level of activity and operational network was almost nothing compared to the Iranian backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) or various Palestinian/PLO Rejectionist factions. Only after the Oslo I process begins do they start increasing their attacks, doubling them with the suicide bombing tactic in 1994, and increasing their kill count by a factor of 10 in 1996. Having been basically absent for the first Intifadeh, they went about "resisting" and "defending" Palestinians at their most hectic pace only after the beginning of Israeli-PLO diplomacy and PLO /PA presence on the ground in Gaza and Jericho.]
-----------------



If they had not been around attacking the Israelis in those years up to 2024, what would the Israelis have succeeded in doing to Palestinian people and land that they did not succeed in doing regardless? More killings or arrests? More settlers nestling in the West Bank and Gaza? Depressed morale among Palestinians because nobody is striking back in their honor on their behalf, maybe leading to more people emigrating? Presumably a resistance movement considered by its national constituents to defend its people is stopping an enemy's plan in some way. But what Israeli plan did they stop, how would they (Hamas) have been missed if they hadn't been there doing their thing, and what negative consequences would have accrued to Palestinians?

-------

A likewise related question - What if there was no Iranian revolution of 1978, and the Shah's regime passed to his heir, or to a secular military regime, rather than to an Islamic Republic. A likely knock-on effect of this is no Iranian alliance with Syria, and no Iranian Shia militant connection with Lebanese Hizballah, helping foster the group, or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which got much of its early training in Lebanon before establishing cells in Gaza.

What would be the worst case scenario for Lebanese Shia, Lebanese in general, and for Palestinians, if basically the absence of Iranian Islamic sponsorship nullified the existence of Hezbollah and PIJ as important paramilitary organizations between 1983 and 2024? Presumably a resistance movement considered by its national constituents to defend its people is stopping an enemy's plan in some way. But what Israeli plan did they (PIJ for the Palestinians, and Hezbollah for the Lebanese) stop, how would they (PJI and Hezbollah) have been missed if they hadn't been there doing their thing, and what negative consequences would have accrued to Palestinians and Lebanese?


Here's the PIJ rap sheet for those years:



  • August 1987: The PIJ claimed responsibility for a shooting that killed the commander of the Israeli military police in the Gaza Strip.[6]
  • July 1989: Attack of Egged bus 405 along the Jerusalem–Tel Aviv highway, at least 14 people killed (including two Canadians and one American) and dozens more wounded. Though intended to be a suicide attack, the perpetrator survived.[47]
  • 4 February 1990: A bus carrying Israeli tourists in Egypt was attacked. The attack left 11 people, including 9 Israelis, dead and 17 others injured.[48]
  • February 1992: in Night of the Pitchforks, killed three Israeli soldiers asleep in their base, using knives, axes and a pitchfork
  • 6 April 1992: an Israeli Army convoy was ambushed in Hula, South Lebanon. Two soldiers were killed and 5 wounded. The target had been Major-General Yitzhak Mordechai, head of Israel's Northern Command. But he had left the convoy earlier. Three of the attackers were killed.[49]
  • December 1993: Killed an Israeli reservist, David Mashrati, during a public bus shooting.
  • April 1994: A car bomb aboard a public bus killed 9 people and injured 50.
  • January 1995: Bomb attack near Netanya killing eighteen soldiers and one civilian.[24]
  • April 1995: Bomb Attack in Netzarim and Kfar Darom. The first bomb killed 8 people including American student, Alisa Flatow, and injured over 30 on an Israel bus; the second attack was a car bomb that injured 12 people.
  • March 1996: A Tel Aviv shopping mall is the site of another bombing killing 20 and injuring 75.
  • November 2000: A car bomb in Jerusalem at an outdoor market killed 2 people and injured 10.[50]
· March 2002: A bomb killed seven people and injured approximately thirty aboard a bus travelling from Tel Aviv to Nazareth.[50]
· June 2002: Eighteen people are killed and fifty injured in an attack at the Megiddo Junction.[24]
· July 2002: A double attack in Tel Aviv killed five people and injured 40.
· November 2002: 12 soldiers and security personnel killed in an ambush in Hebron.[51]After the Afula mall bombing, PIJ stated that the suicide bomber was a 19-year-old Palestinian female student named Hiba Daraghmeh
· May 2003: Three people killed and eighty-three injured in a suicide bombing at a shopping mall in Afula.
· August 2003: A bomber killed 21 people and injured more than 100 people on a bus in Jerusalem.[50]
· October 2003: A bomb killed 22 and injured 60 at a Haifa restaurant.
· October 2005: A bomb detonated in a Hadera market was responsible for killing seven people and injuring 55, five of them severely.
· April 2006: A bomb in a Tel Aviv eatery killed eleven and injured 70.
· January 2007: Both the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades and the PIJ claim responsibility for a suicide bombing at an Eilat bakery that killed three.[24]
· June 2007, in a failed assault on an IDF position at the Kissufim crossing between Gaza and Israel in a possible attempt to kidnap IDF soldiers, four armed members of the al-Quds Brigades (the military wing of Islamic Jihad) and the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades (the military wing of Fatah) allegedly used a vehicle marked with "TV" and "PRESS" insignias penetrated the border fence and assaulted a guard tower in what Islamic Jihad and the army said was a failed attempt to capture an Israeli soldier.[52] IDF troops killed one militant, while the others escaped. The use of a vehicle that resembled a press vehicle evoked a sharp response from many journalists and news organizations. The Middle East director for Human Rights Watch Sarah Leah Whitsonn responded, "Using a vehicle with press markings to carry out a military attack is a serious violation of the laws of war, and it also puts journalists at risk."[53] The FPA responded by saying,
Armored vehicles marked with TV are an invaluable protection for genuine journalists working in hostile environments. The FPA has long campaigned for the continued availability of armored vehicles for its members, despite official opposition in some quarters. The abuse of this recognized protection for the working journalist is a grave development and we condemn those that carried it out. Such an incident will reduce the protection offered by marked vehicles.[52]

During a press conference, an Islamic Jihad spokesperson Abu Ahmed denied that they had put press markings on the jeep used in the attack and said, "The Al-Quds Brigades used an armoured jeep resembling military armoured jeeps used by the Zionist intelligence services."[54]
· On 26 March 2009, two Islamic Jihad members were imprisoned for a conspiracy "to murder Israeli pilots and scientists using booby-trapped toy cars".[55]
· On 15 November 2012, Islamic Jihad fired two Fajr-5s at Tel Aviv from Gaza, one landing in an uninhabited area of the suburbs and the other in the sea.[56]
· On 24 June 2013, six rockets were fired into Israel; major news outlets reported that the Islamic Jihad were behind the attacks.[57][58][59][60]
· In March 2014 over 100 rockets were launched into southern Israel by PIJ and other Islamist groups. On 14 March Shalah announced that the attack was coordinated with Hamas.[61]
Islamic Jihad has also deployed its own rocket, similar to the Qassam rocket used by Hamas, called the al-Quds rocket.
· October 7, 2023: Participated in the Hamas-led incursion into Israel.

…and here is the listing of alleged Hezbollah suicide terrorist, attacks, terrorist attacks, and international terrorist attacks, (Guerilla warfare/insurgent military actions in South Lebanon and cross-border conventional shelling/fighting has not been counted in this list)
Between 1982 and 1986, there were 36 suicide attacks in Lebanon directed against American, French and Israeli forces by 41 individuals, killing 659.[98] Hezbollah denies involvement in some of these attacks, though it has been accused of being involved or linked to some or all of these attacks:[235][236]
· The 1982–1983 Tyre headquarters bombings
· The April 1983 U.S. Embassy bombing, by the Islamic Jihad Organization.[237]
· The 1983 Beirut barracks bombing, by the Islamic Jihad Organization, that killed 241 U.S. marines, 58 French paratroopers and 6 civilians at the US and French barracks in Beirut.[238]
· The 1983 Kuwait bombings in collaboration with the Iraqi Dawa Party.[239]
· The 1984 United States embassy annex bombing, killing 24.[240]
· A spate of attacks on IDF troops and SLA militiamen in southern Lebanon.[98]
· Hijacking of TWA Flight 847 in 1985.[238]
· The Lebanon hostage crisis from 1982 to 1992.[241]
Since 1990, terror acts and attempts of which Hezbollah has been blamed include the following bombings and attacks against civilians and diplomats:
· The 1992 Israeli Embassy attack in Buenos Aires, killing 29, in Argentina.[238] Hezbollah operatives boasted of involvement.[242]
· The 1994 AMIA bombing of a Jewish cultural centre, killing 85, in Argentina.[238] Ansar Allah, a Palestinian group closely associated with Hezbollah, claimed responsibility.[242]
· The 1994 AC Flight 901 attack, killing 21, in Panama.[243] Ansar Allah, a Palestinian group closely associated with Hezbollah, claimed responsibility.[242]
· The 1996 Khobar Towers bombing, killing 19 US servicemen.[244]
· In 2002, Singapore accused Hezbollah of recruiting Singaporeans in a failed 1990s plot to attack U.S. and Israeli ships in the Singapore Straits.[245]
· 15 January 2008, bombing of a U.S. Embassy vehicle in Beirut.[246]
· In 2009, a Hezbollah plot in Egypt was uncovered, where Egyptian authorities arrested 49 men for planning attacks against Israeli and Egyptian targets in the Sinai Peninsula.[247]
· The 2012 Burgas bus bombing, killing 6, in Bulgaria. Hezbollah denied responsibility.[248]
· Training Shia insurgents against US troops during the Iraq War.[249]


Would Palestinians have been worse off? Would there never have been an attempt at the Oslo process? As for Lebanon and Lebanese, would Israel have departed in 2000, like in the real world, or remained through that year, perhaps attempting to annex land from Lebanon or establish settlements there? Or might Israel have withdrawn by about the same May, 2000 schedule, or earlier, through primarily diplomatic means? If the Israelis had not departed from Lebanon by 2020 from South Lebanon, without Hezbollah's uncompromising guerrilla resistance campaign, would they have departed by 2024, either unilaterally through bilateral Israeli-Lebanese diplomacy, or alternate military pressures?
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top