What would be the consequences of a failed Chinese invasion of Taiwan?

[Tyzuris]

Basically assume that Chinese Navy takes crippling losses (as in losing like roughly 40% of their fleet) in invasion of Taiwan along with tens to hundreds of thousands of troops and significant losses of aircraft leaving PLA combat ineffective and unable to prosecute an invasion of Taiwan.

How will this affect China politically, the global politics, etc...? Could this be enough of a failure to bring forth the end of the rule of Communist Party in China leading to massive changes in Chinese government?

 

[Scooby Doo]

Biden will respond by donating half the US Navy ships to China and apologize to China for killing them during the battle of Taiwan.

Libs will call Biden's move brave and stunning while conservatives cry out at the sheer stupidity of the action, Conservatives are now racists to Chinese people.

 

[Cherico]

All right time to bust out a map.

If you look at this map you see that in order for China to get middle eastern crude if has to pass a series of Island arcapeligos.

The first one the thing they call the first island chain is Taiwan, Japan, and the Phillipines. Next they have to get through the straits, after that they have to get past india and then they have to do it all over again in big massive easily messed with transports.

What do all of these countries have in common china has pissed them off with their wolf diplomacy bullshit. So what realistically happens is that all of these countries with grievances cut china off from the international oceans. Officially its because their supporting Taiwan and their democracy the real reason is because china has pissed all of them off.

The US sanctions them at the same level of Russia at minimum.

China is now cut off from Middle eastern crude and their the country most dependent on it, and on their own reserves well at first they have to decide who gets light then they have to decide who gets food. With out access to international trade their industry grinds to a halt.


Internally the regieme has just humilated itself on a grandscale and since the CCP is now a cult of personality with one man holding all of the cards...

Well going after Taiwan is a death or glory attack you win and you get a lot of legitimacy but if you fuck it up everyone sees weakness and a big humilating loss is often the prelude to revolution for a lot of countries. My guess is that the CCP falls and we get another warlord period.

 

[Atarlost]

Biden will respond by donating half the US Navy ships to China and apologize to China for killing them during the battle of Taiwan.

Libs will call Biden's move brave and stunning while conservatives cry out at the sheer stupidity of the action, Conservatives are now racists to Chinese people.

Funny, but not actually likely. Someone less senile will realize that this is how you get a revolution. It doesn't take many Democrats with more financial interest in Taiwan than China to break the Democrat party. And they would come out of it as the unquestioned leaders of the party without losing any core voters or even swing voters in the long run. They cooperate with the Republicans on prosecuting China related corruption (and only China related corruption) and they get to be the unquestioned leaders of the party and pick new people to run for election for all the vacated seats who will owe them everything. It doesn't matter what blackmail you have on someone when you're on facing de facto treason charges.

That sort of coup is too tempting for Biden's puppetmasters to allow the opportunity to exist by being soft on a China that has actually tried to invade Taiwan and not succeeded in getting the Taiwanese semiconductor industry as a hostage.

 

[LordsFire]

How will this affect China politically, the global politics, etc...? Could this be enough of a failure to bring forth the end of the rule of Communist Party in China leading to massive changes in Chinese government?

A failed invasion of Taiwan is almost certain to result in a political coup, a military coup, or an outright collapse into civil war.

The CCP has already been steadily falling in popularity with the Chinese people, and the loss of face of defeat by Taiwan would be extremely difficult for Xi and his lackeys to survive. Not impossible, because weird things can always happen, but it'd take pretty extreme measures for them to keep their grip on power, possibly extreme enough that a civil war would be less harsh.

And this is presuming the Taiwanese don't lob a few missiles into the Three Gorges Dam. If that cracks open, the nation pretty much implodes.

 

[History Learner]

Basically assume that Chinese Navy takes crippling losses (as in losing like roughly 40% of their fleet) in invasion of Taiwan along with tens to hundreds of thousands of troops and significant losses of aircraft leaving PLA combat ineffective and unable to prosecute an invasion of Taiwan.

How will this affect China politically, the global politics, etc...? Could this be enough of a failure to bring forth the end of the rule of Communist Party in China leading to massive changes in Chinese government?

Given the only way this could occur is via nuclear exchange, the PLA responds by incinerating Taiwan. The second wave won't fail then, of course, unless the U.S. starts a tactical or strategic exchange. At that point, the whole subject becomes one of those issues that's much harder to predict, given the destruction of the two main superpowers it entails.

Specifically, though, I think you're operating under the allusion the Chinese will start off a war with an invasion, rather than it being something they build up to. Taiwan has six weeks worth of energy storage and food upon it and, as such, the PLA's plan is to blockade it into submission. That's something the 7th Fleet conceded is well within their capabilities back in October, which shouldn't be a surprise; the PLAN is now the largest navy by numerical count, has 60% the tonnage value of the USN as of 2019 and is now consistently outproducing us by a wide margin in large ship counts, and has closed the quality gap. Now add the battlefield being 100 miles from their shore vs tens of thousands from ours, and you see the logistics also favor them.

It's also worth noting we have no real counter to this either:

 

[LordsFire]

and has closed the quality gap.

Oh, this should be good.

Do tell us how a military that has not participated in a war during the service life of any active members (save for perhaps a few of the very oldest) has closed the service gap. Show us the evidence of their competence and quality!

 

[History Learner]

Oh, this should be good.

Do tell us how a military that has not participated in a war during the service life of any active members has closed the service gap. Show us the evidence of their competence and quality!

You could start by referring to how the 7th Fleet Commander said this months ago, and I cited it then. It's certainly odd to me how often you "forget" such things:

Adm. Thomas said he sees China’s recent actions around Taiwan as an extension of the “might makes right” mentality he said the country has shown in the way it has militarized the South China Sea. China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea overlap with those of other countries in the region. It has during the past decade built artificial islands in those waters, equipping the outposts with military infrastructure and equipment.​

​

“They’ve completely militarized those islands,” he said. “They already have all the bunkers they need, they already have all the fuel storage capacity they need, the ability to house troops, they have the missiles, the radars, the sensors.”​

​

China has the world’s largest navy by size, though the U.S. has more-advanced warships, including a larger aircraft-carrier fleet, giving it a qualitative edge. Adm. Thomas said China is turning out navy ships at an impressive rate, while the U.S. doesn’t have as many shipyards producing navy ships as it needs. China, for instance, is producing its Type 055 destroyers—a large and heavily armed surface ship, also known as the Renhai-class cruiser, that has become a symbol of China’s naval modernization—at a much greater rate than the U.S. is producing guided-missile destroyers, he said.​

​

“Capacity has a quality all of its own,” he said.​

​

Difficulties China might have coordinating across different branches of its armed services, which is how modern militaries operate, has long been seen as a potential weakness for the country’s military. But China has made progress on that front, Adm. Thomas said. Aircraft from China’s air force are flying across water, whereas only its navy undertook such flights four years ago, he said.​

​

“They are more joint than they were a year ago, three years ago, five years ago,” he said.​

 

[Cherico]

Oh, this should be good.

Do tell us how a military that has not participated in a war during the service life of any active members (save for perhaps a few of the very oldest) has closed the service gap. Show us the evidence of their competence and quality!

That's honestly something we only find out once the actual shooting starts.

The CCP lies, they lie a lot like holy shit the central government cant trust their own reports because every one lies kind of bad, and there is a serious corruption problem. Thing is we have no idea how they actually will perform until they actually perform.

I mean pretty much every one expected Russia to fucking steamroll Ukraine with in a couple months at most but then they fucked things up so badly that Ukraine a country with shit defendable terrain, and a smaller population and industry actually pushed them back.

Over all I don't think we know how the chinese navy, airforce, and army will do until they actually fight.

 

[LordsFire]

You could start by referring to how the 7th Fleet Commander said this months ago, and I cited it then. It's certainly odd to me how often you "forget" such things:

Adm. Thomas said he sees China’s recent actions around Taiwan as an extension of the “might makes right” mentality he said the country has shown in the way it has militarized the South China Sea. China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea overlap with those of other countries in the region. It has during the past decade built artificial islands in those waters, equipping the outposts with military infrastructure and equipment.​

​

“They’ve completely militarized those islands,” he said. “They already have all the bunkers they need, they already have all the fuel storage capacity they need, the ability to house troops, they have the missiles, the radars, the sensors.”​

​

China has the world’s largest navy by size, though the U.S. has more-advanced warships, including a larger aircraft-carrier fleet, giving it a qualitative edge. Adm. Thomas said China is turning out navy ships at an impressive rate, while the U.S. doesn’t have as many shipyards producing navy ships as it needs. China, for instance, is producing its Type 055 destroyers—a large and heavily armed surface ship, also known as the Renhai-class cruiser, that has become a symbol of China’s naval modernization—at a much greater rate than the U.S. is producing guided-missile destroyers, he said.​

​

“Capacity has a quality all of its own,” he said.​

​

Difficulties China might have coordinating across different branches of its armed services, which is how modern militaries operate, has long been seen as a potential weakness for the country’s military. But China has made progress on that front, Adm. Thomas said. Aircraft from China’s air force are flying across water, whereas only its navy undertook such flights four years ago, he said.​

​

“They are more joint than they were a year ago, three years ago, five years ago,” he said.​

Even what you're quoting doesn't support your own point.

'They're better than they were' is not the same as 'they're at parity with us.' The fact that you try to conflate the two just demonstrates your determination to justify what you want to be true.

If you were taking a reasonable position, you'd say something more like 'the quality gap is closing,' but the fundamental problem is that you are not reasonable. You have your narrative, and you're going to pitch it no matter what.

 

[Skitzyfrenic]

A failed invasion?

Hmmm.

Well, Western Taiwan is facing demographic collapse, so if a bunch of their men are conscripted their economy will simply fall apart. They're already looking at struggling quite hard to prop up their retired property due to their disastrous one child policy that ran on for far, far too long.

The water war will break out between Mainland Taiwan and India when the CCP military shows itself to be a paper tiger. The stick skirmishes and fist fights up in the mountains will go hot and then India will control the head waters of all three major Chinese rivers that the CCP have desperately been trying to divert into their mainland areas since their water quality is dogshit or simply not there in huge swathes of important territory, like Bejing.

Xi the Pooh will be coup'd, definitely. And we're very likely going to see a return of the cliques and warlords or we will see the break of the CCPs control over rightful Chinese clay.

I don't even think that the Obama Administration Continuation supporting the CCP would save it.

CCP controlled areas of China are really hanging on by a thread. If they don't institute a MAiD progams (like Canada's) in order to kill off their undesirables in droves, we're already looking at a collapse in our lifetime. Their economy is 'strong' but fragile af; their population is struggling in a number of ways, which includes the laying down syndrome kiddies, and the generations of small families with increasing costs meaning that the Three Child Policy is a joke since no one can afford to get married let alone have a child, Christmas Cake everywhere due to completely unreasonable expectations, last I heard some Christmas Cakes were literally being assigned to dirt farmers out in the boonies because no one wants to be a farmer so the CCP is forcing educated women to marry impoverished famers and encouraged to pop out three kids before their fertility tanks; their water situation is awful in like everything north of the Yangztee, which also means their farming situation is also poor in a lot of important regions.

Oh yeah. A failed or even a conflict lasting as long as the joke in the Ukraine will probably see the CCP come tumbling down.

 

[History Learner]

Even what you're quoting doesn't support your own point.

Except it does, it's why you're never able to actually argue on anything I say. You just default to the undefinable point of "well they haven't fought a naval war" while seeming to forget your modern U.S. sailor is four generations removed from the last time we fought a conventional naval conflict.

'They're better than they were' is not the same as 'they're at parity with us.' The fact that you try to conflate the two just demonstrates your determination to justify what you want to be true.

Rather, this just shows you don't understand even basic terms:

Before attempting to argue, perhaps you should know what the words being used mean before embarrassing yourself? Both I and the 7th Fleet Commander were correct in our usage of the term; this explains why you had to directly put words in his mouth he didn't say. More specifically as well, this is referring to the naval situation, because the air situation is different. Air Force officials now more or less say they've eliminated the gap, which shouldn't be a surprise given the PLAAF has been getting more training than the USAF for around a decade now.

If you were taking a reasonable position, you'd say something more like 'the quality gap is closing,' but the fundamental problem is that you are not reasonable. You have your narrative, and you're going to pitch it no matter what.

Except that's what I said, the problem is you're just ignorant and projecting your own inferiority in reasoning. Your entire premise is built on cognitive dissonance, it's why you have to attack me in particular but are never able to actually address the points made, because to do so would invalidate your entire position.

 

[ATP]

That's honestly something we only find out once the actual shooting starts.

The CCP lies, they lie a lot like holy shit the central government cant trust their own reports because every one lies kind of bad, and there is a serious corruption problem. Thing is we have no idea how they actually will perform until they actually perform.

I mean pretty much every one expected Russia to fucking steamroll Ukraine with in a couple months at most but then they fucked things up so badly that Ukraine a country with shit defendable terrain, and a smaller population and industry actually pushed them back.

Over all I don't think we know how the chinese navy, airforce, and army will do until they actually fight.

Indeed.But,IF they fail,it mean lost of Heavenly Mandate.China would go down.

Except it does, it's why you're never able to actually argue on anything I say. You just default to the undefinable point of "well they haven't fought a naval war" while seeming to forget your modern U.S. sailor is four generations removed from the last time we fought a conventional naval conflict.



Rather, this just shows you don't understand even basic terms:

Before attempting to argue, perhaps you should know what the words being used mean before embarrassing yourself? Both I and the 7th Fleet Commander were correct in our usage of the term; this explains why you had to directly put words in his mouth he didn't say. More specifically as well, this is referring to the naval situation, because the air situation is different. Air Force officials now more or less say they've eliminated the gap, which shouldn't be a surprise given the PLAAF has been getting more training than the USAF for around a decade now.



Except that's what I said, the problem is you're just ignorant and projecting your own inferiority in reasoning. Your entire premise is built on cognitive dissonance, it's why you have to attack me in particular but are never able to actually address the points made, because to do so would invalidate your entire position.

Basing on chineese sources,becouse USA intel there is worth shit.
They could really be as good as they say ,or better - but,they could be as shitty as soviets,who supposed to take Kiev in 10 days.

Remember,Putin started war becouse he belived that his army is powerpuff.Xi the pooh could made the same mistake.
Or not,his navy could be real.

Like @Cherico said,we would see it during war,not sooner.Becouse now probably even XI do not knew what his army is worth.

 

[Megadeath]

Except it does, it's why you're never able to actually argue on anything I say. You just default to the undefinable point of "well they haven't fought a naval war" while seeming to forget your modern U.S. sailor is four generations removed from the last time we fought a conventional naval conflict.



Rather, this just shows you don't understand even basic terms:

Before attempting to argue, perhaps you should know what the words being used mean before embarrassing yourself? Both I and the 7th Fleet Commander were correct in our usage of the term; this explains why you had to directly put words in his mouth he didn't say. More specifically as well, this is referring to the naval situation, because the air situation is different. Air Force officials now more or less say they've eliminated the gap, which shouldn't be a surprise given the PLAAF has been getting more training than the USAF for around a decade now.

Except that's what I said, the problem is you're just ignorant and projecting your own inferiority in reasoning. Your entire premise is built on cognitive dissonance, it's why you have to attack me in particular but are never able to actually address the points made, because to do so would invalidate your entire position.

You said "closed the gap". Not "Is closing the gap" or "As China close the gap." Tense matters, context matters. He said "They are more joint than they were..." and "Capacity has a quality all it's own." Neither of those indicate, or even imply or suggest parity with American forces.

Either you're being dishonest, or you're an idiot, or you're so stuck in your own point of view you don't even see the loops you're jumping through. Personally I think self-deluded is more likely than dishonest or dumb but no way to be sure unless you have an epiphany of self awareness.

 

[History Learner]

You said "closed the gap". Not "Is closing the gap" or "As China close the gap." Tense matters, context matters. He said "They are more joint than they were..." and "Capacity has a quality all it's own." Neither of those indicate, or even imply or suggest parity with American forces.

Either you're being dishonest, or you're an idiot, or you're so stuck in your own point of view you don't even see the loops you're jumping through. Personally I think self-deluded is more likely than dishonest or dumb but no way to be sure unless you have an epiphany of self awareness.

Rather, I'm completely correct and I went as far as to literally hand hold @LordsFire through the process of why he is wrong, as usual. I know your clique is on the "slow" side of things, but even with my admittedly low expectations of you lot, it's rather hilarious you're still trying to pretend to be correct when I've already spoon fed you the points. I can only dumb it down so much for you lot:

Close the Gap
"To reduce or eliminate a difference.."

In this case, both I and the 7th Fleet commander are using it in "to reduce" meaning. Again, please have a basic conception of terms before trying to argue with your betters.

 

[Megadeath]

Rather, I'm completely correct and I went as far as to literally hand hold @LordsFire through the process of why he is wrong, as usual. I know your clique is on the "slow" side of things, but even with my admittedly low expectations of you lot, it's rather hilarious you're still trying to pretend to be correct when I've already spoon fed you the points. I can only dumb it down so much for you lot:

Close the Gap
"To reduce or eliminate a difference.."

In this case, both I and the 7th Fleet commander are using it in "to reduce" meaning. Again, please have a basic conception of terms before trying to argue with your betters.

That's the definition of "close the gap" which is different from "closed the gap". It's the exact same usage of "close" as in "close the door." And if someone tells you that they closed a door, and you find it open half way, you're going to rightly conclude they're either an idiot or a liar.

 

[ATP]

Rather, I'm completely correct and I went as far as to literally hand hold @LordsFire through the process of why he is wrong, as usual. I know your clique is on the "slow" side of things, but even with my admittedly low expectations of you lot, it's rather hilarious you're still trying to pretend to be correct when I've already spoon fed you the points. I can only dumb it down so much for you lot:

Close the Gap
"To reduce or eliminate a difference.."

In this case, both I and the 7th Fleet commander are using it in "to reduce" meaning. Again, please have a basic conception of terms before trying to argue with your betters.

Which mean,that china is still worst.
And,considering how shitty CIA is ,all we could say it that probably only XI knew how good commie fleet is.
Or,maybe not.Putin thought,that he had 2th world army ,when all he have is pile of shit.
Unless he really have hidden army of cyborg cloned apemans,of course.Which is possible.