What if there was a Habsburg restoration, and maybe Habsburg restoration war, in the 1920s?

[raharris1973]

In OTL, the last Habsburg Emperor Karl twice tried to reassume power in Hungary in 1921. Facing the threat of invasion from the Little Entente powers, his "regent" and local dictator Admiral Horthy sent him off packing. Karl died brokenhearted in 1924 leaving leaving 12 year old son Otto as heir.

What if Karl had instead a few more years for things to settle down, and for others to take the blame for postwar chaos, stayed healthy, and not tried to get restored until 1926 or so. (I'm presuming his longevity, he died in his forties, was susceptible to his mental/emotional state and self-care).

The rationale for the delay is to give the Entente, big and little, a chance to let its guard down, let others take the fall for hard times, and let nostalgia build.

Further, suppose he focuses his restoration attempt on the Austrian Republic first, rather than Hungary.

The rationale for Austria-first is it's the dynasty's home and it's less immediately exposed to the combined pressures of the Little Entente states (Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia) than Hungary, and with its mountains a bit more defensible than flat Hungary. Additionally, Austria throughout the decade of the 1920s is ruled by Christian Social or independent Chancellors and Presidents, rather than Social Democrats, who should be amenable to monarchic restoration as part of their overall religious and social conservative package of beliefs.

Starting in April 1926, Karl, having organized supporters in Austria and made deals with Austrian Chancellor Rudy Ramek, and Christian Social Party boss Ignaz Seipel, makes a triumphal return to Austria as a wave of street demonstrations and petitions begin calling for the return of the Habsburg monarchy. By May, the Bundesrat and Nationalrat have voted to restore the Habsburg monarchy with Karl as either Emperor, King, or Archduke.

Things could end peacefully and uneventfully after that, but the chances are far less than even. The Little Entente Powers of Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Yugoslavia were focused on the threat of a Habsburg restoration (and assumed designs to reclaim their own lands) more than any other threats.

As the Vienna completes its process of restoring the monarchy, Czechoslovakia, is almost certainly threatening war if Vienna doesn't stop in its tracks and reverse course. It will seek, and may well get the diplomatic, and pledged military support of its partners Yugoslavia, and Romania.

Military, the Czechs and Yugoslavs could invade Austria, the Romanians are further away. Hungary would not grant passage. Sentimentally at least, the Hungarians will be pro-Austrian. If not outright taking the Austrian side militarily against the Little Entente, at a minimum, they will be a non-cooperating neutral, not permitting passage of Little Entente forces through their territory.

Can and would the Czechs and Yugoslavs invade and occupy Austria and overthrow Karl? What would happen after that?

Might Mussolini's Italy denounce Little Entente threats and warn those countries to leave Austria alone, seeking to build up Austria and later Hungary as clients for itself?

If it came to a test of arms, could we see the Little Entente countries attack Austria in 1926 over the restoration, maybe attack the Hungarians too over their non-cooperation, but then the Italians intervene to help the Austrians and take the opportunity to hit the Yugoslavs, take some disputed land, and if they hit them hard enough, try to break off Slovene and Croat states from Belgrade? Might Poland go to war with Czechoslovakia over Teschen to take advantage of Czech preoccupation?

Would Weimar Germany stay entirely out of an Austrian melee that spreads into Central Europe? What about the USSR or Lithuania?

 

[Atarlost]

The USSR has the same problem as Romania but more so. Even nations they're trying to ally with against Austria wouldn't let them through.

Hopefully for Austria Germany stays neutral because if they side with Austria the French will go into a PTSD flashback and join the war against them.

If the Hapsburg Restoration sticks there is no Anschluss. This weakens Germany going into Czechoslovakia and might embolden France enough to say "no" at Munich even with the UK dithering. This could cut off Hitler's ambitions before they go anywhere. If, that is, a successful Hapsburg Restoration doesn't completely change German politics so he never even gets a shot at power.

 

[ATP]

The USSR has the same problem as Romania but more so. Even nations they're trying to ally with against Austria wouldn't let them through.

Hopefully for Austria Germany stays neutral because if they side with Austria the French will go into a PTSD flashback and join the war against them.

If the Hapsburg Restoration sticks there is no Anschluss. This weakens Germany going into Czechoslovakia and might embolden France enough to say "no" at Munich even with the UK dithering. This could cut off Hitler's ambitions before they go anywhere. If, that is, a successful Hapsburg Restoration doesn't completely change German politics so he never even gets a shot at power.

I think you are right.We would have A-H with possible added Croatia and part of Slovenia,after Italy defeated Yugoslavia.
There would be relatively strong Italy-A-H block,enough to stop germans in 1938 if they start something.
If they do not start anything - peace till soviets fall thanks to economy,or soviet attack.
In that case - Alliance of Poland,France and ITaly repell them.Possible stronger Germany,if they send aid.

@raharris1973 - you could get better deal.Destroing of A-H was considered by french diplomats as crime against France,but France supported it becouse masons hated catholics.Let assume,that they do not let their hate dictate their actions and let A-H be,just like german state.
Polish and romanian parts would go out,but rest would remain,even majority of czech do not wanted independence.
And with strong A-H there,there would be no WW2 or short one,ending in quick german defeat.

 

[raharris1973]

The USSR has the same problem as Romania but more so. Even nations they're trying to ally with against Austria wouldn't let them through.

Good point. In any case, my thought on what Soviet participation might extend to would simply be this. They might proclaim some sympathy with Austria or Hungary or complain about Little Entente aggression, but the extent and limit of their participation in a war, if any, would just be opportunistic, to reclaim Bessarabia, and the old 1914 border with Romania.

Hopefully for Austria Germany stays neutral because if they side with Austria the French will go into a PTSD flashback and join the war against them.

On the one hand, the French had stood down from the Ruhr occupation and signed the Locarno Pacts and knew they didn't have Britain's support for fighting Germany over Central European issues. On the other hand, unlike in the 1930s, 1920s France could decide to fight because, unlike 1930s France, they think they can afford it and have a great enough edge in ready forces.

Speaking of German involvement, the natural assumption is the Germans getting involved on the side of the Austrians to protect them against the Czechs and Yugoslavs.

But this overlooks the weird, but very real, possibility, of Germany intervening *against* Austria and technically sharing Czechoslovakia's anti-Habsburg war aims. In OTL Czechoslovakia, and its intelligence service, were more obsessed with the threat of a potential Habsburg restoration and attempt to reconstitute the Austro-Hungarian empire, than with any German threat, well into the 1930s, even until about the moment of the 1938 Austro-German Anschluss.

If Czechoslovakia and the Little Entente find themselves fighting Austria to get rid of Karl, they may try diplomacy to get Weimar Germany to also pressure Karl out of power, and prefer Anschluss to a Habsburg regime. Prague might come to that conclusion especially if they realize either a) they have nobody in Austria locally willing to be anti-Austrian puppet regime, or b) they have an unanticipated pro-Habsburg intervention by the Italians on their hands.

Of course, *if*, and it's a big if, the Weimar Germans intervene, no matter on what side, the risk you cite of French involvement still applies.

If the Hapsburg Restoration sticks there is no Anschluss. This weakens Germany going into Czechoslovakia and might embolden France enough to say "no" at Munich even with the UK dithering.

Maybe Austria is stronger and prouder. Or Anschluss is bloodier, and Karl or Otto leads a guerrilla movement and government in exile.

If Austria is not Anschluss'ed, I don't think Hitler's next move would be towards Sudetenland. I think his next logical move would be towards Lithuania's Memel or the Polish corridor.

 

[ATP]

Józef Piłsudzki,dictator of Poland since putch in 1926 was also austrian agent.Do not trusted France,and do not liked czech.
So,maybe he could help by attacking Czech.

 

[raharris1973]

Józef Piłsudzki,dictator of Poland since putch in 1926 was also austrian agent.Do not trusted France,and do not liked czech.
So,maybe he could help by attacking Czech.

Excellent point, which is why I alluded to it. I don't think his coup was until late in '26 but he was high ranker in the military already I think. Poland has the motivation of getting back the Teschen region anyway.

 

[ATP]

Excellent point, which is why I alluded to it. I don't think his coup was until late in '26 but he was high ranker in the military already I think. Poland has the motivation of getting back the Teschen region anyway.

Indeed.But till we have democracy,we were ruled by coalition of 2-3 parties.It take time to decide anything for them,so,till putch/14.5.26/ they would talk and most likely do nothing.Even if they want Cieszyn back,too.

 

[WolfBear]

Minor nitpick, but Kaiser Karl died in 1922, not in 1924.

Anyway, if Kaiser Karl renounces all Austrian territorial claims against Austria's neighbors, then maybe, just maybe the Little Entente can let him get away with an Austrian monarchical restoration in 1926. This should be easier to do than for Hungarian territorial claims since other than South Tyrol and the southern Sudetenland, Austria didn't actually have many territories that it could ever realistically hope to reacquire. Meanwhile, Hungary could dream about retaking territories from Czechoslovakia, Romania, *and* Yugoslavia, which is why an equivalent declaration for Hungary would not have been politically realistic. Anyway, maybe Kaiser Karl would also need to permanently renounce any attempts to reunify Austria with Hungary as a precondition for the Little Entente's acceptance of his right to rule again over (rump) Austria.

 

[Skallagrim]

It must be noted that Blessed Karl was one of the most ardent advocates of peace in all of Europe. He wouldn't want a war, and he'd do everything in his power to avoid it (short of things contrary to the morals of a pious Catholic man, of course).

Since he was well-known for his peace advocacy in OTL, if we butterfly away his death in '22 (as @WolfBear correctly mentions), it's not too unlikely that his reputation in this regard may continue to grow. When we come to the second half of the '20s, with years of some turbulence having just occurred, it's not impossible that Karl actually ends up looking like a good, stable, decent candidate for the Austrian head of state. For one, he'd have nothing but contempt for German revanchists, and he'd never agree to any German designs on Austria. I'm pretty sure he'd set Schönbrunn on fire himself, before he'd let nazis walk in there.

I can see him returning to Austria with the understanding that he'd actually offer a permanent normalisation with all the neighbouring countries, ending all revanchism, and entering into new treaties of friendship instead. There would be lots of wariness, of course, but when this proves to be real, it could grow into a series of trade agreements. Thus, Central Europe would become tied together again -- but by trade.

If Habsburg restoration proves a success in Austria, the Hungarians will presumably grow more enthousiastic. They'd also like their independence, though, so I see that culminating in a more loose dynastic union, rather than a fully restored dual monarchy. (And those wary of Hungary may well support this, instead of opposing it, if Karl has shown himself to truly be a man of peace, and of his word. Because in that case, they may well see him as a positive influence on Hungary.)

Supposing that Adolf still gets into power and comes knocking twelve years after the initial Austrian restoration, we see the unprecedented hilarity of Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia all standing together -- and telling him where he can stick it. Given the premise of such concerted opposition, I'd expect Poland, France and Britain to also back them (at least nominally).

And so, thanks to Blessed Karl, the words "peace in our time" actually mean something.

 

[WolfBear]

It must be noted that Blessed Karl was one of the most ardent advocates of peace in all of Europe. He wouldn't want a war, and he'd do everything in his power to avoid it (short of things contrary to the morals of a pious Catholic man, of course).

Since he was well-known for his peace advocacy in OTL, if we butterfly away his death in '22 (as @WolfBear correctly mentions), it's not too unlikely that his reputation in this regard may continue to grow. When we come to the second half of the '20s, with years of some turbulence having just occurred, it's not impossible that Karl actually ends up looking like a good, stable, decent candidate for the Austrian head of state. For one, he'd have nothing but contempt for German revanchists, and he'd never agree to any German designs on Austria. I'm pretty sure he'd set Schönbrunn on fire himself, before he'd let nazis walk in there.

I can see him returning to Austria with the understanding that he'd actually offer a permanent normalisation with all the neighbouring countries, ending all revanchism, and entering into new treaties of friendship instead. There would be lots of wariness, of course, but when this proves to be real, it could grow into a series of trade agreements. Thus, Central Europe would become tied together again -- but by trade.

If Habsburg restoration proves a success in Austria, the Hungarians will presumably grow more enthousiastic. They'd also like their independence, though, so I see that culminating in a more loose dynastic union, rather than a fully restored dual monarchy. (And those wary of Hungary may well support this, instead of opposing it, if Karl has shown himself to truly be a man of peace, and of his word. Because in that case, they may well see him as a positive influence on Hungary.)

Supposing that Adolf still gets into power and comes knocking twelve years after the initial Austrian restoration, we see the unprecedented hilarity of Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia all standing together -- and telling him where he can stick it. Given the premise of such concerted opposition, I'd expect Poland, France and Britain to also back them (at least nominally).

And so, thanks to Blessed Karl, the words "peace in our time" actually mean something.

Agreed with your analysis here other than the part about a subsequent loose Austro-Hungarian dynastic union. I think that any Hapsburg who agrees to permanently recognize Hungary's Trianon borders would permanently lose all support in Hungary for their restoration--at least before the 1940s/1950s or so. And without such permanent recognition, the Little Entente will not support a Hapsburg restoration in Hungary.