raharris1973
Well-known member
In this situation, a Wall Street Crash in 1925, and cascading US bank failures from 1926-29, what happens to the US and world economically and geopolitically?
What if the Wall Street Crash happened in 1925, with cascading US bank failures from 1926-29 (Great Depression 5 years early)?
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Buba
A total creep
I think that this is too complicated for us 
It surely is for me ...
I'm not sure of the world will care that much.
The scale of the 1925 crash would be much lesser than OTL, huh?
In OTL Europe - besides the impact of the US depression - went into a recession for other reasons, which reasons which here might not happen.
Starting with - where was Europe in the economic cycle in November 1925?
Britain - Winston "The Eternal Bungler" Churchill has just put the Sterling back on the 1914!!!!!1 Gold Standard. How long will it last?
It surely is for me ...
I'm not sure of the world will care that much.
The scale of the 1925 crash would be much lesser than OTL, huh?
In OTL Europe - besides the impact of the US depression - went into a recession for other reasons, which reasons which here might not happen.
Starting with - where was Europe in the economic cycle in November 1925?
Britain - Winston "The Eternal Bungler" Churchill has just put the Sterling back on the 1914!!!!!1 Gold Standard. How long will it last?
raharris1973
Well-known member
Don’t be a chickeconomist - take a stand!I think that this is too complicated for us
It surely is for me ...
I'm not sure of the world will care that much.
The scale of the 1925 crash would be much lesser than OTL, huh?
In OTL Europe - besides the impact of the US depression - went into a recession for other reasons, which reasons which here might not happen.
Starting with - where was Europe in the economic cycle in November 1925?
Britain - Winston "The Eternal Bungler" Churchill has just put the Sterling back on the 1914!!!!!1 Gold Standard. How long will it last?
Given German recovery’s dependence on American loans, can’t we suppose an American economic crash crashes Germany and Central Europe too?
Buba
A total creep
Simply beyond my ken ...
AFAIK in OTL in 1931 Germany&CE crashed because of French actions.
I would say definitely Germany gets dragged down as well. Don't know too much about the rest of Europe but the US will be building up their tariff walls higher earlier and demanding repayment of debts, probably at a faster rate so world trade will take a big hit as OTL so likely to be at least some level of widespread depression. If the bulk of the developed world is hit then the undeveloped world will tank as well as markets for their products will also crash.
As you said earlier Churchill crippled British industry in 1925 with the decision to go to the 1914 level for sterling but this might end earlier TTL. [I bloody hope so]. Although checking the actual details, see Churchill_as_Chancellor_of_the_Exchequer, things are a bit more complex. He was initially opposed to returning to the gold standard but was eventually persuaded by the Bank of England, although unclear whether the really disastrous step, returning at the 1914 level was Churchill's decision or the Bank's.
One interesting thing could be what happens in Japan. If the economic crash comes in 1925 it will cause chaos there and increasing extremism but does the military have the power to go for the sort of massive military expansion that they did a decade later? Although at this point China itself is markedly more divided and its possible that some sort of Japanese intervention could occur in say 1927-30 period. Whether it would be more or less successful than OTL I don't know and what the reaction of assorted western powers would be?
The other issue would be how long does the depression last and how [and who] comes out of it. OTL it was largely government spending, whether on military factors in places like Germany or civilian ones in the US that started to turn things around. Would say the US keep doubling down on reducing the home market longer than OTL or change path quicker? Assuming that Hitler doesn't gain power in Germany does some other extremists group, whether right wing or left gain power or does some sort of democratic system survive?