What If? What if the USSR of October 1925 is ISOT'ed 20 years in the past?

[raharris1973]

On 1 October, 1925, the entire Soviet Union is ISOT'ed back in time 20 years to October 1st, 1905. This is a few weeks after the signing of the Treaty of Portsmouth concluded the Russo-Japanese War.

The back-timed Soviet Union is grieving the loss of Lenin, and CPSU Party General Secretary Joseph Stalin is politically and bureaucratically in the strongest position within party leadership but by no means is a dictator within the ruling party collective leadership. The Soviet Union has made strides recovering from the Civil War and famines of 1921-1922 with the help of the New Economic Policy and gone a long way to restore agricultural and industrial production almost to 1913 levels. The Red Army is strengthening and absorbing the lessons of the Civil War. It has recently reoccupied northern Sakhalin island, recently evacuated by the Japanese.

The satellite Mongolian People's Republic and Tannu Tuva republics are not back-timed. So across the formal Soviet border, it is the 1905 Qing Empire Mongolian provinces.

West of the 1925 Soviet border, are the Tsarist Empire governorates covering the territory that in OTL 1925 had become Finland, the Baltic States, the majority of Poland, the Bessarabia region of Romania, and the Kars Ardahan region of the Turkish Empire.

Upon realization of the international situation, the USSR government and security forces are able to reduce the downtime fringe territories to obedience without too much difficulty, interference, or trouble.

The Germans and French are locked in the Morocco Crisis, although both have agreed to resolve the politics of the dispute at an international conference starting in 1906.

However, there was even in OTL, some military posturing over the winter, including a German call-up of reserve units on December 30, 1905 and French reinforcement of the border on January 3rd, 1906.

Add to this volatile mix, a completely new Russian state, recalling and replacing its diplomats, and proclaiming from its new capital, Moscow not St. Petersburg, that it is a revolutionary workers state that repudiates its foreign debts and alliances with France. It is also lampooning the upcoming great power diplomacy over Morocco and denouncing the imperial meddling in the Moroccan people's affairs.

Regarding the tense Franco-German rivalry that threatens war, Moscow's propagandists are busy raising questions and doubts about the eagerness and motives of special capitalist interests in each country to fight over Morocco at the price of conscripting or taxing workers.

Beyond Europe, the Soviet authorities are aware of local instabilities and revolutionary trends where history could perhaps be given a nudge with some preparation. Coming up next is the late 1905 protests in Persia culminating in the Constitutional Revolution of January 1906.
After that is the Young Turk, CUP revolution in Ottoman Turkey of 1908. Then 1911 will bring China's Xinhai revolution overthrowing the Qing, and the Mexican revolution against Porfirio Diaz.

What's going to happen with this volatile mix. The back-timed Soviets with their news from the future won't be the only ones getting a vote. Downtime Germans, Austrians, French, and British will have to set their own priorities too and see how many potential adversaries they can try to gain advantages over at once.

Your thoughts?

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2nd option - A variant on the original idea -

On July 1, 1923, the entire USSR is ISOT'ed back in time 20 years to July 1, 1903. Differences? For the USSR, Lenin is still alive, there's been less recovery from famine. From a 1903 world perspective, this is before the Russo-Japanese war. The Russians and Japanese were still negotiating. I think the Soviets will diplomatically yield to Japanese positions and renounce untenable interests in Korea and Manchuria in order to avoid war with Japan, and to make a propagandistic show of being anti-imperialistic friends of the Chinese and Korean people. The Soviets should be able to lock down and control the downtime Tsarist areas on the western fringes. Most other aspects of the scenario are similar to above, except the Moroccan crisis had not started, and Russia has not been militarily or navally humbled before the world. It is still destabilizing that it is pulling itself outside of the alliance system and proclaiming itself a revolutionary state.

 

[WolfBear]

On 1 October, 1925, the entire Soviet Union is ISOT'ed back in time 20 years to October 1st, 1905. This is a few weeks after the signing of the Treaty of Portsmouth concluded the Russo-Japanese War.

The back-timed Soviet Union is grieving the loss of Lenin, and CPSU Party General Secretary Joseph Stalin is politically and bureaucratically in the strongest position within party leadership but by no means is a dictator within the ruling party collective leadership. The Soviet Union has made strides recovering from the Civil War and famines of 1921-1922 with the help of the New Economic Policy and gone a long way to restore agricultural and industrial production almost to 1913 levels. The Red Army is strengthening and absorbing the lessons of the Civil War. It has recently reoccupied northern Sakhalin island, recently evacuated by the Japanese.

The satellite Mongolian People's Republic and Tannu Tuva republics are not back-timed. So across the formal Soviet border, it is the 1905 Qing Empire Mongolian provinces.

West of the 1925 Soviet border, are the Tsarist Empire governorates covering the territory that in OTL 1925 had become Finland, the Baltic States, the majority of Poland, the Bessarabia region of Romania, and the Kars Ardahan region of the Turkish Empire.

Upon realization of the international situation, the USSR government and security forces are able to reduce the downtime fringe territories to obedience without too much difficulty, interference, or trouble.

The Germans and French are locked in the Morocco Crisis, although both have agreed to resolve the politics of the dispute at an international conference starting in 1906.

However, there was even in OTL, some military posturing over the winter, including a German call-up of reserve units on December 30, 1905 and French reinforcement of the border on January 3rd, 1906.

Add to this volatile mix, a completely new Russian state, recalling and replacing its diplomats, and proclaiming from its new capital, Moscow not St. Petersburg, that it is a revolutionary workers state that repudiates its foreign debts and alliances with France. It is also lampooning the upcoming great power diplomacy over Morocco and denouncing the imperial meddling in the Moroccan people's affairs.

Regarding the tense Franco-German rivalry that threatens war, Moscow's propagandists are busy raising questions and doubts about the eagerness and motives of special capitalist interests in each country to fight over Morocco at the price of conscripting or taxing workers.

Beyond Europe, the Soviet authorities are aware of local instabilities and revolutionary trends where history could perhaps be given a nudge with some preparation. Coming up next is the late 1905 protests in Persia culminating in the Constitutional Revolution of January 1906.
After that is the Young Turk, CUP revolution in Ottoman Turkey of 1908. Then 1911 will bring China's Xinhai revolution overthrowing the Qing, and the Mexican revolution against Porfirio Diaz.

What's going to happen with this volatile mix. The back-timed Soviets with their news from the future won't be the only ones getting a vote. Downtime Germans, Austrians, French, and British will have to set their own priorities too and see how many potential adversaries they can try to gain advantages over at once.

Your thoughts?

Germany is going to be both extremely pleased and extremely worried. Extremely pleased because the Franco-Russian alliance will be terminated, but also extremely worried because there's a workers' state right next door to Germany, which can only serve as an inspiration for German socialists. The German government wouldn't want a Soviet-encouraged revolution at home in Germany causing Germany to become a republic, for instance. Especially a republican dictatorship of the proletariat.

Still, overall, I would expect this to be a good thing for Germany, for Austria-Hungary, and for the Ottoman Empire. The Soviet Union is going to be uninterested in allying with France, as previously mentioned, and is also likely going to be uninterested in supporting Serbia and/or other Pan-Slav and Pan-Orthodox movements. It's also not going to have an obsession with Constantinople like Tsarist Russia had. It might support the national self-determination of the Armenians in eastern Anatolia, of course, but only if these Armenians are actually going to support the Bolshevik cause. If not, then it might have no problem throwing them under the bus in order to become the Ottoman Empire's BFF in their shared anti-colonial struggle.

Of course, the interesting thing would be whether Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans, or some combination of these powers that includes Germany, would actually be interested in causing regime change in Russia in the hopes of bringing a more conservative/reactionary but non-French-aligned Russian government to power. Still, I fear that the risk for the Germans might be too great here; the Bolsheviks have not discredited themselves as massively as they did in the 1930s and any right-wing Russian dictatorship will have to be propped up with military force. A democratic Russia would be Socialist Revolutionary-aligned, which might mean having Russia move back in a pro-French direction, which the Central Powers certainly aren't going to want. So, they might reluctantly decide that the Bolsheviks are the lesser evil here. While you might think that this is unusual, it really is: The Franco-Russian Alliance of 1891/1894 and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939 are examples of two regimes that are radically different but have common interests deciding to ally with one another. There's no reason that the same logic can't also apply here, though probably short of a formal alliance. Germany wouldn't want the Bolsheviks becoming too strong, after all. Germany would also view rump Poland and the Baltic countries as being great buffers for itself from the Bolsheviks.

-------

2nd option - A variant on the original idea -

On July 1, 1923, the entire USSR is ISOT'ed back in time 20 years to July 1, 1903. Differences? For the USSR, Lenin is still alive, there's been less recovery from famine. From a 1903 world perspective, this is before the Russo-Japanese war. The Russians and Japanese were still negotiating. I think the Soviets will diplomatically yield to Japanese positions and renounce untenable interests in Korea and Manchuria in order to avoid war with Japan, and to make a propagandistic show of being anti-imperialistic friends of the Chinese and Korean people. The Soviets should be able to lock down and control the downtime Tsarist areas on the western fringes. Most other aspects of the scenario are similar to above, except the Moroccan crisis had not started, and Russia has not been militarily or navally humbled before the world. It is still destabilizing that it is pulling itself outside of the alliance system and proclaiming itself a revolutionary state.

Any chance of the USSR annexing Manchuria in the name of uplifting the Chinese proletariat while condemning a similar Japanese move in Korea by labelling it predatory capitalist and imperialist? If the Soviet Union still believes that Communism should result in the unification of the global proletariat in one country, then there is logic in annexing Manchuria. Stalin believed in socialism in one country, but even he did not reject an opportunity for expansion, such as in Eastern Europe between 1939 and 1945, whether in the form of direct annexation or in the form of puppet/satellite states. It's all about the opportunities that are available at a particular moment.

 

[WolfBear]

BTW, Rob, you might be interested in this thread of mine about a huge balance-of-power shift in Europe in the absence of World War I:

https://www.the-sietch.com/index.php?threads/if-theres-no-wwi-in-1914-and-russia-eventually-ends-its-alliance-with-france-in-favor-of-one-with-germany-can-an-alt-wwi-still-eventually-occur.8717/

By the way, it strikes me that while the Bolshevik Revolution was very bad for Russians, it was quite good for Germans since it got rid of the Franco-Russian alliance that encircled Germany and also since the Bolsheviks' vileness and atrociousness made recreating this alliance much harder in the future than creating this alliance the first time was.

 

[Buba]

I do not think that subjugation of out-of-ISOT territories in the west will be easy, or would it happen at all. In either scenario the USSR is shambles and the Red Army in shambles.
I did some counting - for a 1939 Poland ISOT - and there are 9 (nine) Army Corps in the DT lands. These lost part of their reservists (as all Corps had to have the same percentage of ethnic Russians), but they have access to the locals. Even if the Red Army has an obscene - by 1905 standards - quantity of machineguns, in 1905 its advantage in artillery is not that pronounced. In 1903 it is a different story. Nevertheless those DT formations - 18-20 InfDiv, are of IMO a higher professional level that the Soviets, even if unbloodied. Their weapons are in situ, hence up to TOE.
There also are some odds an ends - a "stranded" InFDiv and some InfBrg in Bessarabia, something in Kars, a few InfBrg in Finland ... Plus units (03 and 05 both) in Manchuria and non-Soviet areas.

Both Soviet propaganda, refugees, and Polish etc. spies fleeing once they learn of the ISOT will spread the word of what happened among the deetees and foreign governments.
"What happened with Nicholas and family?"
"Oh, it was a Tuesday, so we killed them, no big deal."
So, I envision that the non-ISOTs resist and call upon Germany and other countries for assistance.
Will it come? I think so. For Germany and A-H this is an excellent opportunity to push "Russia" eastwards.


The VMF is in even worse shape than the army - small and run down. Still, the Ganguts will cause a sensation and a building frenzy. There is no Pacific Fleet to speak off - no change on 1905, but on 1903 this is
The 1903 scenario is more interesting in the Far East, with all those stranded Imperial units in Manchuria, Korea - two weak InfDiv? and - I just remembered - the fleet in Port Artur
Whereas in late 1905 there still should be some units not yet recalled to Europe from Manchuria ...

Outside the USSR leftards will break up into communists, "social democrats" and fellow travellers over a decade earlier. Also, a crackdown by Authorities on Marxist cultists happens, its form and extent varying by jurisdiction.
How many cultists drop out when they learn about the massacres and "extermination through labour" as invented by Trotski?

A global recession, caused by crash of Paris bourse brought about by the loss of French (and others') investment in Russia that you mentioned. Not only French capital was lost but Paris is the world's 2nd largest capital market, hence global effects.

In either scenario I'd expect the world at large to drop their petty squabbles and focus on the ASB event of the ISOT - probably religious fervor intensifies, as there is proof of a Higher Power Greater Than Ourselves However We Understand It - and the knowledge about 1903/5-1923/25 events.
"Knives are out" in Turkey, maybe elsewhere as well.

Inside the USSR - Stalin is on top, as you say, but far from exclusive control. What impact does a New Brave World Out There have on internal Bolshevik politics? Round 2 between Stalin and Trotski? Another thug tries for the leadership? Circling the wagons? World revolution?
The UT USSR's network of sympathisers, useful idiots, spies and agents is lost. Rebuilding it will take time. As I've already mentioned, there is turmoil among the leftards ...

"Judeocommunism spotted" = limits on immigration in USA introduced over a decade sooner?

Fun all around!

 

[WolfBear]

I do not think that subjugation of out-of-ISOT territories in the west will be easy, or would it happen at all. In either scenario the USSR is shambles and the Red Army in shambles.

And Germany will likely protect Poland, the Baltic countries, and Romania's claim on Bessarabia.

 

[ATP]

As @Buba said.Tsar soldiers on polish territories would not join soviets,but fight them.
And,before they could be overrun,Germans would help tem,maybe A-H ,too.
Soviets from 1925 against germans from 1905? i would still bet on germans,especially that everybody except cryminals and commies in soviets would welcome germans as liberators.
AndKaiser would not start genociding them,like Hitler did.

 

[WolfBear]

As @Buba said.Tsar soldiers on polish territories would not join soviets,but fight them.
And,before they could be overrun,Germans would help tem,maybe A-H ,too.
Soviets from 1925 against germans from 1905? i would still bet on germans,especially that everybody except cryminals and commies in soviets would welcome germans as liberators.
AndKaiser would not start genociding them,like Hitler did.

Germany would want to ensure that any new Russian government is not French-aligned.

 

[Batrix2070]

Germany would want to ensure that any new Russian government is not French-aligned.

Honestly, it's a pretty small price to pay, and rather classically Russian and very helpful to them since Czar Peter III "the Jerk" allowed Prussia to survive.

 

[WolfBear]

Honestly, it's a pretty small price to pay, and rather classically Russian and very helpful to them since Czar Peter III "the Jerk" allowed Prussia to survive.

But having the Russian government be French-aligned will simply fuel Germany's fears about getting encircled, no?

 

[ATP]

Honestly, it's a pretty small price to pay, and rather classically Russian and very helpful to them since Czar Peter III "the Jerk" allowed Prussia to survive.

And polish gentry Hipolit Korwin-Milewski in his"70 lat wspomnień" /very interesting book,if you could read it/ claimed that russians generals,at least part of them,were pro-germans during WW1,and that is why they do not take East Prussia in 1914.

 

[Atarlost]

At the first hint of the Communist Revolution spreading an UK not exhausted by the Great War should start seeing Revolutionary France in Russia and Napoleon in Stalin and start winding up the Fifth Coalition. And frankly the Austrians, Germans, Italians, and Spaniards should be seeing the same thing. Maybe the Ottomans too. The Japanese aren't primed to see Revolutionary France and Napoleon, but they are primed to see opportunity when everyone else piles in. The US at the start of Roosevelt's second term is a wild card, but I think it probably comes down on neutrality favoring the fifth coalition because the US can't afford to go up against any coalition including the UK and any naval ally at this time even alongside the French and Soviet navies. The RN is maintaining the two power standard and the Soviet Navy is functionally nothing. An anti-revolutionary coalition including the UK, German Empire, and Italy is unbeatable. Germany and Italy can beat France leaving the Royal Navy to blockade the US which as of the Great White Fleet expedition can't actually project power without hiring British colliers and buying coal from British coaling stations.

This predates the souring of Anglo-German relations over the Dreadnought race so there's not much friction between anyone in non-Soviet Europe except Germany and France and Italy and the AHE. Being earlier I also think it likely that those involved will remember that the Entente Cordiale is not an alliance and the Triple Alliance is.

I don't see this going well for the USSR. They have a machinegun advantage, but other nations are starting to adopt them and there are just so many nations lined up against them and their ability to maintain them in heavy use is questionable. Best case for the USSR, France goes revolutionary and the US goes neutral and everyone dogpiles France first. This buys Russia a year or two, but the first Five Year Plan doesn't even start until 1928 and relies on exporting Ukrainian grain to buy industrial tooling, which is I think unlikely to be allowed by a pre-WWI Europe equating Stalin with Napoleon. Worst case French conservatives maintain control and consider the USSR threat greater than the shame of the Franco-Prussian War and Roosevelt decides he's in an Imperialist mood more than a Progressive mood.

 

[raharris1973]

Germany is going to be both extremely pleased and extremely worried. Extremely pleased because the Franco-Russian alliance will be terminated, but also extremely worried because there's a workers' state right next door to Germany, which can only serve as an inspiration for German socialists. The German government wouldn't want a Soviet-encouraged revolution at home in Germany causing Germany to become a republic, for instance. Especially a republican dictatorship of the proletariat.

Still, overall, I would expect this to be a good thing for Germany, for Austria-Hungary, and for the Ottoman Empire. The Soviet Union is going to be uninterested in allying with France, as previously mentioned, and is also likely going to be uninterested in supporting Serbia and/or other Pan-Slav and Pan-Orthodox movements. It's also not going to have an obsession with Constantinople like Tsarist Russia had. It might support the national self-determination of the Armenians in eastern Anatolia, of course, but only if these Armenians are actually going to support the Bolshevik cause. If not, then it might have no problem throwing them under the bus in order to become the Ottoman Empire's BFF in their shared anti-colonial struggle.

I think this is a wise overall summary of the German perspective on the changed landscape.

Of course, the interesting thing would be whether Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans, or some combination of these powers that includes Germany, would actually be interested in causing regime change in Russia in the hopes of bringing a more conservative/reactionary but non-French-aligned Russian government to power.

This is another possibility that may happen. There will certainly at least be advocates screaming for it.

Still, I fear that the risk for the Germans might be too great here; the Bolsheviks have not discredited themselves as massively as they did in the 1930s and any right-wing Russian dictatorship will have to be propped up with military force. A democratic Russia would be Socialist Revolutionary-aligned, which might mean having Russia move back in a pro-French direction, which the Central Powers certainly aren't going to want. So, they might reluctantly decide that the Bolsheviks are the lesser evil here.

German elites, militarists, and upper-classes and pious Christians can get behind a war to crush socialist radicalism and atheism in Russia (and incidentally, seek advantages for Germany), and the middle-class can get behind it for reasons of patriotism, national glory, and conformity. But the working classes, SocDem voters at home, will be skeptical about the value of any war to restore Tsarist autocracy in Russia, unenthusiastic and unreliable. They'll be damn sure to want to get paid bloody well in blood money for any extra working hours or work volume in support of the war.

Regarding the German government and foreign office of 1905, they might not have the sophistication to realize that in its "natural, democratic state" Russian voters would tend toward non-totalitarian control by SRs supportive of the distributed land tenure.

Germany would also view rump Poland and the Baltic countries as being great buffers for itself from the Bolsheviks.

More likely than not, but with Poland, there's a catch 22. Any independent Poland will have ethno-territorial claims against Germany and its ally Austria as well. Polish nationalism is a force to be feared, just as revolutionary socialism is. Germans with a high degree of Polonophobia may see the first priority above all others as preventing the emergence of an independent Polish state, so for that reason, they may have *no* tolerance for a puppet state calling itself Polish, and may worry about Socialist Russia being too weak to hold the Poles down. They may prefer the USSR crush and reincorporate Poles, or may prefer a repartition of Poland, where Germany and Austria divide Congress Poland, even though it means absorbing ethnic Poles, to prevent the emergence of a Polish national center that can demand other territories like Posen, Danzig, Silesia, Galicia.

To some extent, the Germans have to prioritize their fears, and then act accordingly.

Any chance of the USSR annexing Manchuria in the name of uplifting the Chinese proletariat while condemning a similar Japanese move in Korea by labelling it predatory capitalist and imperialist? If the Soviet Union still believes that Communism should result in the unification of the global proletariat in one country, then there is logic in annexing Manchuria. Stalin believed in socialism in one country, but even he did not reject an opportunity for expansion, such as in Eastern Europe between 1939 and 1945, whether in the form of direct annexation or in the form of puppet/satellite states. It's all about the opportunities that are available at a particular moment.

I'd say chances are pretty small in the 1903, and non-existent in the 1905. I think the Soviets really are not going to want to deliberately court another war with Japan. In 1903, they could try to negotiate something like this by accepting late offers from Japan recognizing Japanese supremacy in Korea in return for Russian supremacy in Manchuria, and then turning over Manchuria to its "proletariat". Even that though risks irritating all outside powers and China at once.

They could also take this approach as part of a "stir up shit and leave" strategy, where they pull their forces back from non-Russian territory in northeast Asia and "generously" proclaim their relinquishment of claims to the Korean, Chinese, and Manchu people. They make propaganda out of it, and criticize the Japanese when the Japanese move into the imperial vacuum, but they don't get directly involved militarily.

I do not think that subjugation of out-of-ISOT territories in the west will be easy, or would it happen at all. In either scenario the USSR is shambles and the Red Army in shambles.
I did some counting - for a 1939 Poland ISOT - and there are 9 (nine) Army Corps in the DT lands. These lost part of their reservists (as all Corps had to have the same percentage of ethnic Russians), but they have access to the locals. Even if the Red Army has an obscene - by 1905 standards - quantity of machineguns, in 1905 its advantage in artillery is not that pronounced. In 1903 it is a different story. Nevertheless those DT formations - 18-20 InfDiv, are of IMO a higher professional level that the Soviets, even if unbloodied. Their weapons are in situ, hence up to TOE.
There also are some odds an ends - a "stranded" InFDiv and some InfBrg in Bessarabia, something in Kars, a few InfBrg in Finland ... Plus units (03 and 05 both) in Manchuria and non-Soviet areas.

1939 Poland? Do you mean 1905 or 1903 Poland?


All true that there are masses of old regime troops on the western fringes in particular. At the same time, these forces as of late 1905 exist in a certain state of precarity. They've been holding back revolutionary disturbances since Bloody Sunday at the beginning of the year, and enduring mediocre to bad news from the Far Eastern front. In the interior, they've be fighting against peasant rural land seizures, jacqueries, and banditry. In Poland, they are holding down nationalist and industrial unrest that would persist in OTL for another two years.

The Soviets have a lot of angles to work and exploit 'contradictions' and differences between downtime actors to weaken or neutralize their threat. For example:
a) Put diehard Tsarist troops in Poland-Lithuania "between two fires" by supporting, even if only momentarily, Polish independence aspirations
b) Alternatively, appeal to Tsarist troops Great Russian patriotism by advertising the Soviet Union as "the only Russia you've got" in the face of disloyal ethnic minorities, Poles, Jews, Balts, Romanians, Finns, who want to break Russia up.
c) Divide Tsarist soldiers from officers by telling the soldiers they are already late for the division of the estates, they are released from military service forthwith, and welcome to claim some land to farm on their own or with family members while there is still some around. Our Soviet bureaucrats will help! And this can be reinforced by possibly sending some people or family members from the NEP era Soviet Union to the uptime/downtime border with bullhorns (or through letter communications, "high this is your mama, the government taught me how to read after the old regime got you killed in the next war") to ask their younger selves or family members, alive or deceased, to "come home".

Russia is demographically battered compared to 1914, but its military is higher tech and tactically knowledgeable. It has more machine-guns and submachine guns per unit of soldiers than the 1905 armies and definitely more tanks, tankettes, and motor vehicles, and has expertise in combat use of armored trains. None of these are up to the standards of the 1930s, and are not particularly impressive by 1925 standards or even 1918 western front standards, but this is 1905, and its a good tactical edge to bloody the enemy in any early encounter battles in 1905. Also, the Soviets have an Air Force capable of air to air actions, bombing, rudimentary close air support, reconnaissance. Again, a primitive Air Force by 1918 standards, but a frightening thing for any 1905-1908 army to encounter.

Both Soviet propaganda, refugees, and Polish etc. spies fleeing once they learn of the ISOT will spread the word of what happened among the deetees and foreign governments.
"What happened with Nicholas and family?"
"Oh, it was a Tuesday, so we killed them, no big deal."
So, I envision that the non-ISOTs resist and call upon Germany and other countries for assistance.
Will it come? I think so. For Germany and A-H this is an excellent opportunity to push "Russia" eastwards.

They would have to prioritize the objective of making eastern puppets, and overcome the fear of unleashing national independence movements, especially Poles, to do this. They would also have to have the discipline to chill out about the French and divert attention from colonial rivalries with France and Britain while doing this.

Even if they decide this will be their focused policy, success is not assured in the long-haul.

In either scenario I'd expect the world at large to drop their petty squabbles and focus on the ASB event of the ISOT - probably religious fervor intensifies, as there is proof of a Higher Power Greater Than Ourselves However We Understand It - and the knowledge about 1903/5-1923/25 events.
"Knives are out" in Turkey, maybe elsewhere as well.

Petty squabbles can be hard to let go of.

"Judeocommunism spotted" = limits on immigration in USA introduced over a decade sooner?

Possibly so, and fears of ideological contagion could outweigh sob stories of sad refugees and escapees from Communism and the natural feeling of hospitality towards them and the utility of those refugees for propaganda purposes.

But having the Russian government be French-aligned will simply fuel Germany's fears about getting encircled, no?

This is a factor that is relevant, and that I think other posters are under-valuing.

 

[WolfBear]

I think this is a wise overall summary of the German perspective on the changed landscape.



This is another possibility that may happen. There will certainly at least be advocates screaming for it.

Yep and Yep.

German elites, militarists, and upper-classes and pious Christians can get behind a war to crush socialist radicalism and atheism in Russia (and incidentally, seek advantages for Germany), and the middle-class can get behind it for reasons of patriotism, national glory, and conformity. But the working classes, SocDem voters at home, will be skeptical about the value of any war to restore Tsarist autocracy in Russia, unenthusiastic and unreliable. They'll be damn sure to want to get paid bloody well in blood money for any extra working hours or work volume in support of the war.

Worth noting that such a war might get more support among the German Social Democrats and working-classes once Joseph Stalin seizes power in the USSR, imposes totalitarian tyranny, mass collectivization, and purges there, though. Then the Soviet Union will stop looking like a proletarian paradise, after all. But that's a while away.

Regarding the German government and foreign office of 1905, they might not have the sophistication to realize that in its "natural, democratic state" Russian voters would tend toward non-totalitarian control by SRs supportive of the distributed land tenure.

I think that the biggest concern for Germany would be whether whatever Russian government replaces the Bolsheviks will revive the Franco-Russian alliance. The Germans might not care that much about Russian SRs implementing land reforms in a post-Bolshevik Russia if this Russia will be aligned with Germany, for instance. A devil's bargain might be interesting: Making a deal with Russian exiles to overthrow the Bolsheviks in exchange for them promising to have their country ally with Germany (and Austria-Hungary) with a revival of the Three Emperors' League, except without Russia actually getting a new Emperor/Tsar of its own. If Germany can weed out the Bolshevik menace while ensuring that whatever replaces it in Russia will be pro-German, then Germany might very well go along with this, especially if it can get its ally A-H on board with this.

Also, off-topic, but is 1925 northeastern Turkey ISOTed back in time to 1905 as well? I mean the Kars and Ardahan regions that were Russian in 1905 but Turkish in 1925.

More likely than not, but with Poland, there's a catch 22. Any independent Poland will have ethno-territorial claims against Germany and its ally Austria as well. Polish nationalism is a force to be feared, just as revolutionary socialism is. Germans with a high degree of Polonophobia may see the first priority above all others as preventing the emergence of an independent Polish state, so for that reason, they may have *no* tolerance for a puppet state calling itself Polish, and may worry about Socialist Russia being too weak to hold the Poles down. They may prefer the USSR crush and reincorporate Poles, or may prefer a repartition of Poland, where Germany and Austria divide Congress Poland, even though it means absorbing ethnic Poles, to prevent the emergence of a Polish national center that can demand other territories like Posen, Danzig, Silesia, Galicia.

To some extent, the Germans have to prioritize their fears, and then act accordingly.

Well, I think that the Germans are still going to worry to some extent about an eventual Franco-Russian rapprochement and thus might enjoy using a puppet Poland to hedge their bets on Russia. As in, Yes, we will support pro-German forces in Russia, but if things will ever deteriorate for us in Russia once again, then at least we'll have a Polish buffer state. Unless of course this Polish buffer state will also turn hostile towards Germany. In theory, what Germany can do in this: Re-partition Poland, but along the pre-Napoleonic partition lines so that Russia is kept away from core German and A-H territory to a much greater extent than it was back before this ISOT:

This would give Germany a lot more Poles, including the Polish capital of Warsaw, but this could be justified as a preventative security measure. This might be enough to get the German SPD to look the other way in regards to this, especially if they will believe that a stronger Polish Party could be a useful ally to them in future German Reichstags. The German Empire was only 5.5% Polish before this ISOT, so if this percentage goes up to 10% or even 15%, it won't be the end of the world for Germany:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Empire#1900_census_results

And of course Austria-Hungary will get many more Poles of its own as well.

I'd say chances are pretty small in the 1903, and non-existent in the 1905. I think the Soviets really are not going to want to deliberately court another war with Japan. In 1903, they could try to negotiate something like this by accepting late offers from Japan recognizing Japanese supremacy in Korea in return for Russian supremacy in Manchuria, and then turning over Manchuria to its "proletariat". Even that though risks irritating all outside powers and China at once.

Yeah, pissing off China might not be a good idea if the Soviet Union wants to portray itself as anti-colonialist and anti-imperialist.

They could also take this approach as part of a "stir up shit and leave" strategy, where they pull their forces back from non-Russian territory in northeast Asia and "generously" proclaim their relinquishment of claims to the Korean, Chinese, and Manchu people. They make propaganda out of it, and criticize the Japanese when the Japanese move into the imperial vacuum, but they don't get directly involved militarily.

Wouldn't it be more prudent for the Soviet Union to create self-defense forces for the Koreans, Chinese, and Manchus in these territories before they leave? So that these peoples would actually be able to defend and protect the proletarian cause in these regions after the Soviets will leave?

I also wonder if the Soviet Union might try forming strategic alliances with US anti-imperialists. Anti-imperialism was a big thing in the US even back then:

American Anti-Imperialist League - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is a factor that is relevant, and that I think other posters are under-valuing.

Yep. After all, as World War I approached, Germany became more and more worried about Franco-Russian encirclement, about Russia building up its military and building strategic railroads in Poland, et cetera:

Franz Ferdinand Wants Peace in the Balkans

null

www.mentalfloss.com

“Russia is Ready, France Must Be Ready Too!”
Upholding the Three-Year Service Law was crucial to preserving France’s alliance with Russia, the cornerstone of French national security. Just in case anyone forgot was at stake, on June 13, 1914 the Russian war minister, Vladimir Sukhomlinov, published an anonymous op-ed in Birzheye Vedomosti, a Russian newspaper that often served as an official mouthpiece, titled “Russia is Ready, France Must Be Ready Too!”

The article pointed out that Russia was building strategic railroads and preparing to increase its standing army to 2.3 million men and urged France to maintain the Three-Year Service Law, raising the French standing army to 770,000 men. Only then could would they have a decisive advantage against Germany and and Austria-Hungary, with standing armies of 880,000 and 500,000, respectively.

Sukhomlinov’s opinion piece sent a clear message to friend and foe alike, including Germany, where its inflammatory rhetoric only stoked paranoia about encirclement. When Kaiser Wilhelm received a translated version he scribbled angry notes in the margins, noting that Russia’s strategic railroads were “All against Germany!” and concluding “Well! Finally the Russians have shown their hand. Any person in Germany who does not now believe that the Russo-Gauls are not working together at high tension for a war with us very soon and that we should take corresponding counter-measures deserves to be sent to the lunatic asylum…”

A few days alter Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg passed the article along to the German ambassador to London, Prince Lichnowsky, with this gloomy note: “The reaction on German public opinion has been unmistakable and serious. Whereas formerly, it was only the extremists among the Pan-Germans and militarists who urged that Russia was making systematic preparation for a war of aggression upon us very soon, even moderate public men are now inclined to this view…”

 

[Buba]

the working classes, SocDem voters at home,

The SPD will break up over stance on Soviets, torn between "revolutionary wing" and "oh! no! we are like totally not like that!". The latter may have a faction eager to assist the "self perpetuating proletariat and peasant oppressing class" in actions against the Soviet "aberrration", to prove their credentials that they are responsible, respectable folks.
Like I've said - everywhere the left, the marxist left in particular, will be rent.

Any independent Poland will have ethno-territorial claims against Germany and its ally Austria as well.

How very true.
Hence German WWI ideas of ethnic cleansing.

1939 Poland? Do you mean 1905 or 1903 Poland?

Sorry for lack of clarity. What I intended to say was "what I learned when looking at 1939 Poland ISOTed to 1914".

Russia is demographically battered compared to 1914, but its military is higher tech and tactically knowledgeable. It has more machine-guns and submachine guns per unit of soldiers than the 1905 armies and definitely more tanks, tankettes, and motor vehicles,

You are greatly overestimating what the Soviets had. No submachine guns - no LGM, even, a few tanks captured from/abandoned by the intervention forces/Whites. Not sure if any were running by 1925. Tankettes not invented yet. Very few trucks. And the tactical and operational prowess of the Soviets is nothing to write home about. The Russian Civil War, the war with Poland etc. looked like the ACW - two armed bands barely knowing what they were doing.
True that the USSR do have some things not yet invented in 03/05, but it does not have much of them. The only thing it has shitloads off - compared to the DTs - are HMGs. Which are pretty much what was available in 05, but issued at an order of magnitude larger scale.
What you wrote would apply to 1935 Soviets. These would be beyond reach by DT folks.

Good point about the low state of 1905 Imperial troops.

BTW - as this is before the worst of the Soviet terror and genocides, the USSR's populace is likely to be more supportive of the Soviets than it would be by '35 or '40.

Another player besides the usual suspects - Sweden.

 

[WolfBear]

How very true.
Hence German WWI ideas of ethnic cleansing.

Could we see a German military operation in the Polish territories near Germany's border similar to what Turkey recently did in Syria in Afrin in real life?

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/nyt-accused-of-whitewashing-turkeys-afrin-occupation-659199

Ethnically cleanse a Polish Border Strip in order to provide a buffer between the Poles in Poland and the Poles in Germany.

 

[Agent23]

Do not forget that there is a huge technological and doctrinal disparity in the form of tanks and improvements in things like rifles, machine guns and artillery and aviation thanks to World War I and the pre-War buildup.

 

[ATP]

At the first hint of the Communist Revolution spreading an UK not exhausted by the Great War should start seeing Revolutionary France in Russia and Napoleon in Stalin and start winding up the Fifth Coalition. And frankly the Austrians, Germans, Italians, and Spaniards should be seeing the same thing. Maybe the Ottomans too. The Japanese aren't primed to see Revolutionary France and Napoleon, but they are primed to see opportunity when everyone else piles in. The US at the start of Roosevelt's second term is a wild card, but I think it probably comes down on neutrality favoring the fifth coalition because the US can't afford to go up against any coalition including the UK and any naval ally at this time even alongside the French and Soviet navies. The RN is maintaining the two power standard and the Soviet Navy is functionally nothing. An anti-revolutionary coalition including the UK, German Empire, and Italy is unbeatable. Germany and Italy can beat France leaving the Royal Navy to blockade the US which as of the Great White Fleet expedition can't actually project power without hiring British colliers and buying coal from British coaling stations.

This predates the souring of Anglo-German relations over the Dreadnought race so there's not much friction between anyone in non-Soviet Europe except Germany and France and Italy and the AHE. Being earlier I also think it likely that those involved will remember that the Entente Cordiale is not an alliance and the Triple Alliance is.

I don't see this going well for the USSR. They have a machinegun advantage, but other nations are starting to adopt them and there are just so many nations lined up against them and their ability to maintain them in heavy use is questionable. Best case for the USSR, France goes revolutionary and the US goes neutral and everyone dogpiles France first. This buys Russia a year or two, but the first Five Year Plan doesn't even start until 1928 and relies on exporting Ukrainian grain to buy industrial tooling, which is I think unlikely to be allowed by a pre-WWI Europe equating Stalin with Napoleon. Worst case French conservatives maintain control and consider the USSR threat greater than the shame of the Franco-Prussian War and Roosevelt decides he's in an Imperialist mood more than a Progressive mood.

Yes,soviets would lost.But,all who fought them would get 1920 planes,tanks,and...nothing more.
So,technological progress for rest of the world/well,those who fought soviets/

Politically - communism is dead,and WW1 is aborted for next 20-30 years.Becouse germans would start it anyway,only not then.And,maybe,this time they would win.

 

[Atarlost]

Politically - communism is dead,and WW1 is aborted for next 20-30 years.Becouse germans would start it anyway,only not then.And,maybe,this time they would win.

I dunno. Germany got what it wanted: an end to the Franco-Russian threat. So long as France doesn't get to put a puppet government in Russia, Germany is in a better position to exercise influence.

If I had to put a bet on who would start the next general war I'd put it on Italy switching to ally with France and then picking a fight with the AHE.

 

[WolfBear]

If I had to put a bet on who would start the next general war I'd put it on Italy switching to ally with France and then picking a fight with the AHE.

Risky endeavor since the odds of the CP winning the war are much better without Russia being in it. And would French socialists actually be willing to support an Italian war of aggression?

 

[Buba]

True that Germany - if it manages to contain the Bolsheviks with a bufferzone - indeed can do the Happy Dance as the Great Encirclement is no more. And France weakend due to loss of all the money invested in Russia. Thus the Kaiserreich can turn inward and address issues like a tanking economy - Russia was an important partner and market - and electoral reform.
The three curiae in Prussia, the 1866 (?) distribution of electoral districts for the Reichstag, female suffrage ...

There could be some sort of war involving the Partition of Ottoman Empire. But do the Great Powers duke it out or cooperate is an open question.
Italy is the weakest GP, even if with the 4th largest fleet.

If the Bolsheviks do not surpress what they released in 1918 or repeat the publication of secret treaties - now, the Politbiuro sits back, drinks kvass and eats syemechki while enjoying the show of outrage, denials, rebutals. Better than the "Los ricos tambien lloran", a Mexican telenovela.