What if the Serbs just grabbed compensation from Turkey after the 1908 Bosnia annexation instead of whining and posturing?

[raharris1973]

During the Bosnian Annexation Crisis of 1908-1909, Serbia was angry over the formal Austrian annexation of the Bosnia-Hercegovina provinces from the Ottoman Empire, although they'd been occupied/administered by Vienna for 30 years, because of the Serbs ethnic ties to the provinces and aspirations there.

After the Austrian annexation on 6 October, 1908:

Serbia mobilized its army and on 7 October the Serbian Crown Council demanded that the annexation be reversed or, failing that, Serbia should receive compensation, which it defined on 25 October as a strip of land across the northernmost portion of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar.[31] In the end these demands were rejected.

Bosnian Crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

While certainly Austria was changing the status quo and violating the terms of the multilateral 1878 Treaty of Berlin, Serbia's mobilization, combined with its demand that its larger neighbor reverse its action was rather provocative, presumptuous, and a major diplomatic pecking order violation for Serbia, as a non-guarantor of the treaty, to make to one of the top five European great powers, and one wonders how Belgrade thought their demand could have been met in Vienna with anything but a humiliating rejection. And then the Serbs muddied the waters a bit by proposing/demanding territorial compensation as an alternative form of satisfaction.

This seems a rather theatrical form of whining and posturing with poor prospects, unless by some miracle a great champion (like Russia?) appears out of the blue to champion to Serbian cause.

What if the Serbs in this case had a firmer grip on reality, on their ability to reverse Austrian decisions taken (zero), and the odds of Russia forcing a decision to Serbia's liking (low), cut the crap, and did their mobilization without making any specific ridiculous demands to Austria or the Ottomans? If asked why they are mobilizing, simply say it is precautionary because of the increase risk of Ottoman-Habsburg fighting on their border creating an emergency. And with mobilization achieved in however many weeks it takes, then simply occupy the northernmost portion of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar to gain its territorial "compensation" and the desired land corridor with Montenegro?

Would the Ottomans have declared and prosecuted all out war against the Serbs to reclaim the Serbian occupied Sanjak, when they neither contesting the near simultaneous Bosnian annexation, nor the Bulgarian formal Declaration of Independence?

If the Ottomans did declare war on the Serbs could they have defeated the Serbs and won the Sanjak and additional territories back? Or might the Serbs have won?

Might other powers, like the Russians or Bulgarians or Greeks have backed the Serbs against Ottoman attacks/counterattacks?

 

[49ersfootball]

During the Bosnian Annexation Crisis of 1908-1909, Serbia was angry over the formal Austrian annexation of the Bosnia-Hercegovina provinces from the Ottoman Empire, although they'd been occupied/administered by Vienna for 30 years, because of the Serbs ethnic ties to the provinces and aspirations there.

After the Austrian annexation on 6 October, 1908:

Bosnian Crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

While certainly Austria was changing the status quo and violating the terms of the multilateral 1878 Treaty of Berlin, Serbia's mobilization, combined with its demand that its larger neighbor reverse its action was rather provocative, presumptuous, and a major diplomatic pecking order violation for Serbia, as a non-guarantor of the treaty, to make to one of the top five European great powers, and one wonders how Belgrade thought their demand could have been met in Vienna with anything but a humiliating rejection. And then the Serbs muddied the waters a bit by proposing/demanding territorial compensation as an alternative form of satisfaction.

This seems a rather theatrical form of whining and posturing with poor prospects, unless by some miracle a great champion (like Russia?) appears out of the blue to champion to Serbian cause.

What if the Serbs in this case had a firmer grip on reality, on their ability to reverse Austrian decisions taken (zero), and the odds of Russia forcing a decision to Serbia's liking (low), cut the crap, and did their mobilization without making any specific ridiculous demands to Austria or the Ottomans? If asked why they are mobilizing, simply say it is precautionary because of the increase risk of Ottoman-Habsburg fighting on their border creating an emergency. And with mobilization achieved in however many weeks it takes, then simply occupy the northernmost portion of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar to gain its territorial "compensation" and the desired land corridor with Montenegro?

Would the Ottomans have declared and prosecuted all out war against the Serbs to reclaim the Serbian occupied Sanjak, when they neither contesting the near simultaneous Bosnian annexation, nor the Bulgarian formal Declaration of Independence?

If the Ottomans did declare war on the Serbs could they have defeated the Serbs and won the Sanjak and additional territories back? Or might the Serbs have won?

Might other powers, like the Russians or Bulgarians or Greeks have backed the Serbs against Ottoman attacks/counterattacks?

Definitely following.

 

[raharris1973]

My proposed alternative idea was for the Serbs to attack and occupy the Sanjak of Novi Pazar only after the Austro-Hungarians had left it for the Ottoman Turks (which they did shortly after the Bosnia annexation), not Serbia attacking Austria-Hungary head on.

So Serbia, in doing this occupation would be poking the Ottomans right in the eye, and certainly courting war with them. But would the Austro-Hungarians at this time regard it as a poke in their own eyes, requiring their own war of vengeance on Serbia?

I think that is the key next question.

 

[gral]

Might other powers, like the Russians or Bulgarians or Greeks have backed the Serbs against Ottoman attacks/counterattacks?

I don't think the Russians would be able to - that's why Austria-Hungary moved on Bosnia, after all. The Bulgarians and Greeks would be all for taking over Turkey-in-Europe, so I think they would back the Serbs(and then fight against each other to sort out who gets what - the Balkan Wars, 5 years earlier). Note that I write this without knowing how much better the armies involver were in 1913 vis-à-vis 1908.

Italy may also pounce on the Ottomans, going for Libya 3 years earlier.

 

[raharris1973]

I don't think the Russians would be able to - that's why Austria-Hungary moved on Bosnia, after all. The Bulgarians and Greeks would be all for taking over Turkey-in-Europe, so I think they would back the Serbs(and then fight against each other to sort out who gets what - the Balkan Wars, 5 years earlier). Note that I write this without knowing how much better the armies involver were in 1913 vis-à-vis 1908.

Italy may also pounce on the Ottomans, going for Libya 3 years earlier.

As noted, a possible consequence of the Serbs following the Austrian annexation of Bosnia with their own, Serbian grab of Ottoman north Novi Pazar might have encouraged envious Italy to make a move to occupy Libya, which the Ottomans would have probably felt obliged to resist by war.

An Italo-Ottoman war begun nearly three years early could end up awkward for Italy, because I think at almost any point in late 1908 or 1909, Italy will be rocked with the devastating Messina earthquake in Sicily that will be quite a distraction.

And then in the Balkans, the Ottomans would be unlikely to feel obliged to take an assault by the Serbs lying down, and could seek to settle the score by counter-attacking them and reclaiming Novi Pazar and perhaps counter-invading Serbia to defeat its army and collect an indemnity. If faced with an opportunistic attack by Italy, the Turks may be dissuaded. Or, the Turks could be faced with other opportunistic attacks, possibly by newly declared independent Bulgaria seeking territory in Thrace or Macedonia, or Greece seeking land in Macedonia and Epirus. If things appear to be heading in the general direction of a Turkey-carving, even Russia may not stay out . Yes in 1908 it was still recovering from the R-J war defeat and revolution, certainly would not have been up for war with Austria or Germany, but perhaps it might consider a landgrab of Ottoman Armenia, from an OE beleaguered on all sides the kind of easy win that would be just the thing to lighten up the Romanov Empire's mood.