What if Sino-Japanese War over Okinawa/Ryukyu Islands before 1900?

[raharris1973]

What if China and Japan fought a war over Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands?

I can see multiple PoDs when this might occur:

1. What if the Ming dynasty went to war with Japan to contest the initial Shimazu clan invasion of the Ryukyus in 1609?

The Chinese become aware of this Japanese attack on their tributary Kingdom, which the Japanese use to get around anti-Japanese trade restrictions, and, pissed off, send a fleet and soldiers to drive out the Japanese. They are especially angry because the Imjin War is in living memory and the Japanese have to be taught another lesson. If all else is the same, this would be under Wanli, who was Emperor during the Imjin War, but OTL he was demotivated and 'on-strike' by this point. Maybe rage at the Japanese might motivate him, or maybe the PoD could be something happening earlier that eases the deadlocked frustration he has with his court bureaucrats, maybe his preferred heir dies early, their preferred heir dies early, or Wanli dies early and the Tianqi Emperor gets to learn the job and do it instead of reigning just a week before dying.

2. What if the Qing find out about the Ryukyuans "two-timing" their tributary status to China and being tributaries to the Satsuma Shimazus, and Admiral Shi Lang sells the Emperor on a plan to restore China's exclusive relationship right after gloriously conquering Taiwan in 1683. Using Qing naval forces, now augmented by forces of the Zheng family fleet from the former Tungning Kingdom on Taiwan, Shi Lang invades the Ryukyu in the middle 1680s, reclaims the whole island chain for the Ryukyuan King, expels Japanese influence and trade, and reasserts the island Kingdom as part of China's tribute network.

3. The same thing happens but much later, in the 1760s, under the Qianlong Emperor, shortly after he has completed his wars against and genocide of the Dzunghar Mongol people. (c. 1763)

4. 19th century China declares war on Japan when it announces the formal annexation of the Ryukyu Kingdom in 1879.

 

[S'task]

Can't comment on most of those, but the fourth scenario in 1879 ends up with China on the end of a ass kicking. By 1879 China's navy had be pretty much completely wrecked by the earlier Opium Wars and the Western Powers controlled most of the major ports. Meanwhile Japan was working on modernizing it's navy in a way the Chinese didn't even have the capability to, having just gotten three new modern warships and having been working on modernizing their navy for over a decade at that point.

China simply doesn't have the naval power to contest the Imperial Japanese Navy in 1879, and that had already been pretty well proven by their Invasion of Taiwan in 1874.

 

[ATP]

1.1609 - China win.Shoguns would not fight for vassals which started invasion without them.
2.The same,Shoguns do not want wars on sea.
3.The same.
4.China massacred.

In 1,2,3 cases - after 1840 somebody - probable british - would cath islands.Japan would be in no position to take it before WW2.
After that - free Okinawa under USA aegis.Considering usual japaneese army behaviour,probably still hating Japaneese guts.
And now - commie China would want it back.

 

[raharris1973]

1.1609 - China win.Shoguns would not fight for vassals which started invasion without them.

In the case of this one though, what about the Shimazu's of Shoguns coming back themselves a couple decades later during the Ming collapse of 1644-46?

 

[raharris1973]

1.1609 - China win.Shoguns would not fight for vassals which started invasion without them.
2.The same,Shoguns do not want wars on sea.
3.The same.

Interesting, so any time in the 1600s or 1700s, the Shogunate would back off and write off the loss rather than resist the Chinese.

I understand them not wanting the entanglement or escalation. But if it did happen, might they see it as a 'wake-up call' and demand some more updated weapons for the central authorities through the Dutch trading post at Dejima, Nagasaki Harbor?

In 1,2,3 cases - after 1840 somebody - probable british - would cath islands.Japan would be in no position to take it before WW2

This could have some interesting cultural knock-on effects. With Okinawa never being linked to modern Japan, it will probably slow standardization and global popularization of karate. Because Okinawans gave demonstrations to the Emperor and the Japanese liked the art, they added it to the Japanese physical education curriculum in the 1920s or 1930s, adding the belt rank system from Judo and tournament rules. If Okinawa were a British colony instead, karate would have been a quieter, more family oriented art, less likely to be taught to foreigners for longer, like Chinese kung fu/wu shu in Hong Kong and China, and taken longer to spread.

 

[ATP]

In the case of this one though, what about the Shimazu's of Shoguns coming back themselves a couple decades later during the Ming collapse of 1644-46?

Shoguns arleady decided to shut Japan.They would did nothing.And Manchu would take it just like they take Taiwan,becouse they could not tolerate any Ming ruled territory.
And they would still fall after 1840,when somebody would take Okinawa.Probably England,maybe France.USA - no,they take Hawaii un 1895,and by that time Okinawa would be taken.