What if Prussia lost at the battle of Sadowa/Koniggratz in 1866?

[raharris1973]

What if Prussia lost at the battle of Sadowa/Koniggratz in 1866?

Does this automatically reverse the verdict of the Austro-Prussian War from a quick Prussian victory in seven weeks to a quick Austrian victory in seven weeks?

I have heard some arguments that the positioning of the Prussian forces across the Bohemian mountains was such they were in a "win or die" situation.

But was that really the case?

Could an unfavorable battle have resulted in a longer, uglier war with an uncertain outcome that Austria is not certain to win?

Bismarck did after all have back-up plans to use against Austria. In addition to his alliance with the Italians, he had opened up lines of collaboration with Hungarian and South Slavic dissidents wanting to break away from the Austrian monarchy. In OTL, the war ended soon enough that he made no use of those links.

But, if Prussia suffered military setbacks, could or would Prussia have played a Hungarian/Slavic uprisings card to try to recover its position? To what ultimate effect? How would Russia react?

Or would Austria winning a battle at Sadowa/Koniggratz over Prussia just give Austria the prestige and mojo and flexibility to in turn intimidate and crush in sequence any potential uprisings any minority nationalities are thinking about?

What about internal strains within Prussia in the event of a protracted, unsuccessful war? Could such circumstances lead to liberal, socialist workers, or Catholic/regionalist unrest in areas like for example the Rhineland and Ruhr, or Upper Silesia?

 

[stevep]

What if Prussia lost at the battle of Sadowa/Koniggratz in 1866?

Does this automatically reverse the verdict of the Austro-Prussian War from a quick Prussian victory in seven weeks to a quick Austrian victory in seven weeks?

I have heard some arguments that the positioning of the Prussian forces across the Bohemian mountains was such they were in a "win or die" situation.

But was that really the case?

Could an unfavorable battle have resulted in a longer, uglier war with an uncertain outcome that Austria is not certain to win?

Bismarck did after all have back-up plans to use against Austria. In addition to his alliance with the Italians, he had opened up lines of collaboration with Hungarian and South Slavic dissidents wanting to break away from the Austrian monarchy. In OTL, the war ended soon enough that he made no use of those links.

But, if Prussia suffered military setbacks, could or would Prussia have played a Hungarian/Slavic uprisings card to try to recover its position? To what ultimate effect? How would Russia react?

Or would Austria winning a battle at Sadowa/Koniggratz over Prussia just give Austria the prestige and mojo and flexibility to in turn intimidate and crush in sequence any potential uprisings any minority nationalities are thinking about?

What about internal strains within Prussia in the event of a protracted, unsuccessful war? Could such circumstances lead to liberal, socialist workers, or Catholic/regionalist unrest in areas like for example the Rhineland and Ruhr, or Upper Silesia?

It might of course depend heavily on the degree of the Austrian victory. I.e. crushing heavily one or more of the three armies that the Prussians split up into and stopping the Prussian invasion. If they don't capture most of Bohemia, the most industrially advanced part of the Austrian empire and aren't by some reports basically living off the lands there then its a markedly better position for the Hapsburg's. However I'm not sure how quickly the Prussian forces elsewhere were winning over their other opponents that they might have come to the aid of the force fighting the Austrians. If the latter could have followed up by occupying Silesia say or moving into the Saxony area to support them and threaten Berlin its a big change. However I'm not sure that the Austrian army had the leadership and organisation for that, at least very quickly.

If the Austrians had won fairly quickly and clearly at Sadowa then it would probably have reduced the probability of unrest in the Slavic parts of the empire, although Hungary, still resentful over the defeat of the 1848 uprising might well have been tempted to do something. Which could cause problems although this might have strengthened the desire of the assorted non-Magyar in the kingdom, who were in a majority, to support the Hapsburg's against the Hungarians,

A prolonged war might have prompted unrest in parts of Prussia as the liberal opposition to Wilhelm I had nearly prompted his abdication a few years before until Bismarck had managed to create a power bloc that out-maneuvered them and allowed the more autocratic policies of Wilhelm to succeed. Plus parts of the Rhineland with a more mercantile and business mind-set seem to have been unhappy with being ruled by Prussia - at least in the early stages after 1815 although what the status was in 1866 I don't know.

I suspect that if Austria and its allies won then it would maintain Austrian power/dominance - at least for the moment - in Germany and weaken Prussia somewhat but I suspect it wouldn't totally crush Prussia as a significant German state. Taking back Silesia and possibly seeing Saxony restored to its pre-1814 borders would hurt Prussia but unless it lost most of the Rhineland province - in which case who controls them? - its still likely to be the 2nd power in Germany. Plus too big a set of Austrian gains is likely to prompt opposition from either France or Russia or both.

 

[Buba]

IIRC at the time of Sadova the war in Germany proper was over, the Prussians beating everybody silly. The Kingdom of Saxony was occupied and being looted by the Prussians, for instance.

Plus too big a set of Austrian gains is likely to prompt opposition from either France or Russia or both.

This.
I am not sure about the .... ahem, mercurial Napoleon III, but IMO Russia would doubtlessly growl at Austria if it tried to hurt Prussia too much. In spite of losing the Crimean War and the mess that was putting down the January Uprising in Poland, Russia still carried some weight. Bismark had cultivated Sankt Peterburg (and FJ did his best to alienate it), hence here Prussia had a safety cushion. Loss of Silesia and/or Prussian Saxony - very, very unlikely.

 

[ATP]

Bismarck would lost his position,and prussian would wait for another occasion.Which could never occur - prussia need Russian support which they get thanks to provoking polish uprising,defeated Austria and France to conqer Germany.Such occasion would probably never occure.
But - with Russia becoming stronger we would still have WW1 about 1920,with England making coalition against them.

 

[raharris1973]

There's an argument that if the Prussians are beaten badly enough they are forced to retreat, it will turn into route and starvation for them.

The Prussian army is up the creek.

If defeated it would be retreating over land that its foragers had already stripped during their advance, and would be facing starvation.

There wouldn't be much point in Hungarians rebelling in support of a Prussia that was already a busted flush. And if they did, the Croatians would surely be on the other side, as in 1848. What would they gain by swapping Austrian rule for Magyar rule?

In Prussia, there could be some kind of revolt. Iirc there were riots against the war in several German cities, which only died away after the first victories were announced.

These disorders could be of both liberal, but also more radical Socialist and Anarchist ideological coloration, especially as the Prussian state's raison d'être or unique 'value proposition' is undermined by defeat.

How is this for the ending territorial settlement, supposing the Austrians win, the French, Russians, and British stay neutral (although the French pocket Saarland), and Prussia's territorial losses are parceled out to Austria, the Princes of Tuscany and Modena, and Austria's mid-sized German allies (Saxony, Bavaria, Hanover, the Hesse's)