@ Buba - These points all may be valid.
I think that Japan gpoing to war with Netherlands will piss off White Man Club very much.
The white man mutual massacre club? This still doesn't seem like enough to get the Entente and Central Powers to stop fighting each other. The biggest effect I could imagine would be a demand by the ANZACs to get their boys home, just in case.
President Wilson will be upset.
Indeed. This will be upsetting, and another distraction. It will draw attention to Pacific defenses and the Philippines. But I can't imagine SecState Bryan being ready to leap into war over this, and his successor SecState Lansing will have his attention divided between the Far East, Mexico, and the Euro-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the US will have scarce real military power to throw around in the short term.
Also Siam - this is poaching in British and French spheres of interest.
Well it is close and 'cozy' with Indochina, Burma and Malaya. The British and French won't be happy and will complain.
The Japanese counter will be, 1) Look at how much our exports to your countries have shot up in your time of need, 2) Look at all the invitations to the Central Powers I've been getting in the mail and throwing in the trash, and 3) We've been perfectly respectful of *your* colonies, and London, didn't you ask us to go further and even help you defend *India* if needed.
Even if no immediate reaction - because war in Europe - after the war the Big Boys will come knocking on Japan's door ...
The same British Big Boys who retreated from Turkish rabble at Chanak, and Bolshevik rabble in Russia, and returned to "normalcy" in the US.
AFAIK post 1905 Japanese state finances were kept afloat (or greatly helped) by British banks.
This may have been true up to the war, but the war quickly turned Japan's financial frown
upside down
. Japan quickly got out of debt, gained a positive trade balance and current account balance and became a creditor. During 1914, it might still feel a bit financially subordinate, but by '15, '16, or '17 it will be feeling pretty confident economically.