What if Kaiser Wilhelm doesn't grab any new territory in the northern Pacific from 1897-1914?

[raharris1973]

This is a fairly minor what-if on the world scene, but I'm curious about your take on it, for its longer term effects.

What if, without really changing anything else about Wilhelmine foreign policy, Germany doesn't grab Qingdao from China in 1897 or buy the Spanish East Indies (Micronesia) in 1898?

Things don't come together for the for the German Navy, Cabinet, and Foreign Ministry men "on the spot" and Berlin to line up to seize Qingdao port from China and force the Chinese to yield 99 year lease over the surrounding area like in OTL's 1897. Let's assume though, that with their pre-existing interesting, there are still multiple powers scrambling for ports or concessions in China, kicked off by the Russians grabbing Port Arthur later in the year like they did in OTL. The Germans just never get around to getting any leasehold like Qingdao. The Germans end up taking part in the Boxer suppression with the other powers and have their tiny little legation quarters and concession quarters next to everybody else in Tianjin and Beijing, but not that special zone in Shandong.

Next, the Spanish-American War goes as OTL, with the US attacking the Spanish at Manila Bay, and seizing Guam and the Philippines. Without the Philippines, the rest of the Spanish East Indies (the Micronesian islands of the Palaus, Carolines, and Marianas) are worthless to Spain, and Spain is willing to sell. But Germany is somewhat distracted or uninterested at the moment, perhaps over something domestic. Somebody else buys them from Spain, perhaps France, perhaps Britain, perhaps Italy, Netherlands, or USA - it doesn't matter.

As we move into the early 1900s, Germany has the African empire we all know, and in the Pacific, it has German New Guinea, established in the 1880s, consisting of northern New Guinea, nearby islands like the Bismarcks, and claims over the Marshall Islands to the northeast. It also has a condominium over Samoa that is settled into a partition with the Americans.

European and global diplomacy, trade and warfare, and Asian-Pacific, largely rolls on as in OTL, except for the residents of Shandong province and several Micronesian islands.

When World War I breaks out, any German naval forces in the Asia-Pacific region can only have sovereign bases in New Guinea or Samoa in the Southern Hemisphere, not in Qingdao. They can do normal peacetime coaling in Far East ports in Japan and China and Hong Kong up until the war breaks out, but once war breaks out, they can't use Entente ports, and even in neutral ports need to be on the lookout for more numerous Entente shipping.

Like OTL, Britain could use a little help hunting down German raiders but it's not a make or break issue. Meanwhile, observing the outbreak of the war, while the Japanese government sees its British ally going to war, unlike OTL, it sees no nearby prospect of territorial gain by declaring war on the Germans. The Pacific possessions that Germany does have are remote, almost all south of the equator, with others like Australians, New Zealanders and the alternate purchaser of the Spanish islands much better positioned to grab them.

What policy do the Japanese and Chinese governments adopt towards the war, without Qingdao and Shandong at stake?

Assuming their neutral throughout the war, how does that affect their internal and postwar politics? What might tempt or motivate them to join the war on anyone's side?

 

[stevep]

Well their very unlikely to join the CP side because that would alienate Britain, which is both their primary ally and the power that due to its naval power is the greatest potential threat to them. They might not formally join the allies at all as little for them to gain or they might seek to make a token commitment to gain favour with the allies.

If Germany doesn't take those Chinese territories then who does? IIRC it was a German lead 'alliance' with Russia and France that prevented Japan taking more advantage of its victory over China in the 1895 war, with the Europeans taking most of those territories themselves. As you say the Russian gain of Port Arthur in this played a part in triggering the later Russo-Japanese war. Does Japan still take those assorted territories, in which case its in a much more powerful position to influence China, for good or ill. It might also have better relations with Germany without the German intervention, although Wilhelm's fairly loud anti-Asian sentiments could made that a moot point.

 

[Buba]

Interesting.
With no Tsingtao to grab - does Japan even join the war at all? I'm like totally with @stevep on this - joining CP is unthinkable, joining the Entente gives no benefits beyond those already enjoyed from friendly neutrality.
Since 1905 Japan held the Liaotung Peninsula and later annexed Korea - hence it already surpassed its original (lasting) 1895 gains.

Hmm - with no anti-CP action, even if not particularly noteworthy - does the Entente look less kindly at Japan's bullying of China?

 

[Atarlost]

Well their very unlikely to join the CP side because that would alienate Britain, which is both their primary ally and the power that due to its naval power is the greatest potential threat to them. They might not formally join the allies at all as little for them to gain or they might seek to make a token commitment to gain favour with the allies.

You're confusing your wars. The two treaty networks going into WWI are the Triple Alliance (Germany/Austria/Italy) and the Triple Entente (France/Russia/UK). Most people avoid calling the Allies the Allies in WWI because of confusion with WWII, but that doesn't mean the term Allies is available to use for the Entente.

 

[Buba]

Triple Entente (France/Russia/UK)

Wasn't the Entente the London-Paris axis, with the Russo-French military pact to invade Germany an absolutely separate arrangement?

 

[Atarlost]

Wasn't the Entente the London-Paris axis, with the Russo-French military pact to invade Germany an absolutely separate arrangement?

You're confusing the Triple Entente with the Entente Cordiale. The collection of the Entente Cordiale, the Franco-Russian Alliance, and the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 was referred to as the Triple Entente.

 

[Buba]

To think I've been confused for the past 35 years ...
Hmm - so, it was a Triple Entendre?

 

[Airedale260]

To answer the original question...not a whole hell of a lot. Maybe Japan decides to sit the war out, but they'll still find shenanigans to get into in China and Korea. *Maybe* they take more of an opportunity to swipe Vladivostok and pieces of Siberia, but that's probably it.

Other than that, they'll probably be just as antagonistic in the postwar years, and the only changes are what flags are flying over the parts of the Pacific islands Germany owned OTL.

 

[raharris1973]

If Germany doesn't take those Chinese territories then who does?

Well really the Chinese territory we are talking about is the the Qingdao port and the larger Jiaozhou leasehold in Shandong province. (old spellings were Tsingtao, Kiaochow, and Shantung, respectively). It is in the east central China coast, but on the north-ish side, so no predetermined to go to anybody in particular. In the absence of the German seizure, it may go to:

a) nobody, and it stays Chinese, with various foreigners trading there, enjoying their extraterritorial privileges, but not an exclusive lease

b) Russia. If so, after the Russo-Japanese war, then to Japan at the treaty of Portsmouth

c) Britain. They operated all along the China coast including in not too far Shanghai, they might grab Tsingtao as an alternative to Weihaiwei, also in Shandong, which Britain seized in OTL after the German moves on Qingdao and Russian move on Port Arthur. The pro for Britain is it is a better port than Weihaiwei, but the con is it is not directly opposite Port Arthur, and Britain's intent was mainly to watch Russia.

d) France. This is an extreme long shot. Sure France operated all along the coast including Shanghai and Tianjin, but its area of specialized interest was the far south near Indochina, and that's where in OTL 1898 they grabbed the lease of Guangzhouwan/Ft. Bayard.

IRC it was a German lead 'alliance' with Russia and France that prevented Japan taking more advantage of its victory over China in the 1895 war, with the Europeans taking most of those territories themselves.

Correct, but there was a time lag of a couple years between the Triple Intervention and when the Euros came in to grab loot for themselves. More than anything China related, Germany's motive was to woo Russia.

Does Japan still take those assorted territories,

Japan only takes Qingdao if it is Russian. Between the Triple Intervention and Russo-Japanese war it was *very* careful and worried about another intervention. Without it being in the hands of an enemy of Britain, (as Russia was kind of seen in 1904, and Germany in fact was in 1914) Japan won't feel like it has the same "hunting license".

It might also have better relations with Germany without the German intervention, although Wilhelm's fairly loud anti-Asian sentiments could made that a moot point.

Germany not having anything close-by to either pose a naval/commercial threat, or for Japan to steal, should improve relations. This should even with the occasional rude article or cartoon by Wilhelm. It's important not to over-fetishize Wilhelm. Of course nobody's more guilty than me, considering the thread title! Institutionally, the Japanese Army still admired the German Army and had gotten alot of training there, and continued to run students through its academies without much trouble. Same with China's Beiyang Army too.

Since 1905 Japan held the Liaotung Peninsula and later annexed Korea - hence it already surpassed its original (lasting) 1895 gains.

Good point.

Hmm - with no anti-CP action, even if not particularly noteworthy - does the Entente look less kindly at Japan's bullying of China?

Well the Entente didn't look kindly on it, and they did push back on Japan's most extreme demands, and they would here, but they had definite limits in how much they can escalate while the war is going on. The British were smart, they knew they were busy with WWI and couldn't and shouldn't bluster about threatening confrontation, but did say that Japan's demands to get a monopoly on advisers to China would make it a protectorate and were not going to fly. The British were honest with the Chinese and didn't promise to come to their rescue. The Japanese reacted pretty well, all things considered, withdrawing the extreme demands on advisors, and the Chinese crumbled on the other demands easily.

The Americans may be stubborn with the Japanese, for instance not being as accommodating in the Lansing-Ishii agreement, but even here, while watching the Atlantic like a hawk, or participating in that war, actually participating in WWI, and having Mexican troubles, Wilson won't exactly rush into a fight with Japan.

As for Japanese bullying of China itself, there might actually be one less occasion for it, if there is no Qingdao operation. Because then the Japanese won't be occupying as a consequence of WWI and trying to get Chinese and global affirmation of their claim, while the Chinese are trying to get the opposite.

The lack of a Qingdao bone of contention leaves both with less incentive to join the war at all.

However, for Japan, providing some naval aid to the global British effort is not that hard. Also, German submarine warfare at some point will sink some Japanese and Chinese merchant ships somewhere, giving a DoW excuse. By the the time that happens and the US declares war over it, it might just look like declaring for the Allies is the right move to make for diplomatic influence and relevance at the peace conference and at the end of the war. Kind of like how everybody and his brother declared war on the Axis by March 1945.

 

[stevep]

You're confusing your wars. The two treaty networks going into WWI are the Triple Alliance (Germany/Austria/Italy) and the Triple Entente (France/Russia/UK). Most people avoid calling the Allies the Allies in WWI because of confusion with WWII, but that doesn't mean the term Allies is available to use for the Entente.

Not really the assorted powers fighting the CPs did call themselves the allies. It's noted that because the US wasn't a member of the alliance in 1914-18 that you get the term allied and associated powers - the latter referring to the US and also I think I read once that Belgium also considered itself an associated rather than allied power.

They were also known by the Triple Entente but groups or even single nations or organizations often have multiple names/descriptors. As you pointed out to Buba there were three different agreements that tied the three powers together in concern about Germany and was the Triple Entente a formal name itself or something used to historians to distinguish it from the Triple Alliance?

Steve

 

[stevep]

To answer the original question...not a whole hell of a lot. Maybe Japan decides to sit the war out, but they'll still find shenanigans to get into in China and Korea. *Maybe* they take more of an opportunity to swipe Vladivostok and pieces of Siberia, but that's probably it.

Other than that, they'll probably be just as antagonistic in the postwar years, and the only changes are what flags are flying over the parts of the Pacific islands Germany owned OTL.

They could well sit out the war if NO German bases but are likely to grab Tsingtao if the Germans hold it simply because they can and that would bring them technically into the war. I can see them pressurising China as OTL but unlikely to probe into Russia unless there's a collapse as OTL and the Bolshevik coup makes their territories open for pressure. They won't try anything while there's an internationally recognised Russian government that's part of the alliance as that would be very bad if not fatal for them given the effect on their imports.

It could be, without the Germans buying the Spanish possessions that they stay under Spanish rule. Alternatively I would say the most likely buyers would be Japan themselves or just possibly the US. There's not really a lot to interest Britain or France in that region.

 

[stevep]

Well really the Chinese territory we are talking about is the the Qingdao port and the larger Jiaozhou leasehold in Shandong province. (old spellings were Tsingtao, Kiaochow, and Shantung, respectively). It is in the east central China coast, but on the north-ish side, so no predetermined to go to anybody in particular. In the absence of the German seizure, it may go to:

a) nobody, and it stays Chinese, with various foreigners trading there, enjoying their extraterritorial privileges, but not an exclusive lease

b) Russia. If so, after the Russo-Japanese war, then to Japan at the treaty of Portsmouth

c) Britain. They operated all along the China coast including in not too far Shanghai, they might grab Tsingtao as an alternative to Weihaiwei, also in Shandong, which Britain seized in OTL after the German moves on Qingdao and Russian move on Port Arthur. The pro for Britain is it is a better port than Weihaiwei, but the con is it is not directly opposite Port Arthur, and Britain's intent was mainly to watch Russia.

d) France. This is an extreme long shot. Sure France operated all along the coast including Shanghai and Tianjin, but its area of specialized interest was the far south near Indochina, and that's where in OTL 1898 they grabbed the lease of Guangzhouwan/Ft. Bayard.

If there's no intervention by the three European powers then Japan would have both Qingdao/Tsingtao and also Port Arthur itself wouldn't it? According to the wiki article they intended to keep Qingdao at least and doubt they would have allowed Russia into Port Arthur. As such, unless Japan is seen as a rival Britain is unlikely to be interested in a port that far north. Although without the triple intervention Japan might not end up allying with Britain?

Correct, but there was a time lag of a couple years between the Triple Intervention and when the Euros came in to grab loot for themselves. More than anything China related, Germany's motive was to woo Russia.

According to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_Intervention on it the Russian almost immediately occupied the Port Arthur region while it was a couple of years before Germany occupied the Qingdao region.

Japan only takes Qingdao if it is Russian. Between the Triple Intervention and Russo-Japanese war it was *very* careful and worried about another intervention. Without it being in the hands of an enemy of Britain, (as Russia was kind of seen in 1904, and Germany in fact was in 1914) Japan won't feel like it has the same "hunting license".

Actually as noted above Japan occupied it during the war against China and intended to keep it. As such it would require the Triple Intervention to occur and Germany not to later take it. In which case what happens to it would depend on events.

Germany not having anything close-by to either pose a naval/commercial threat, or for Japan to steal, should improve relations. This should even with the occasional rude article or cartoon by Wilhelm. It's important not to over-fetishize Wilhelm. Of course nobody's more guilty than me, considering the thread title! Institutionally, the Japanese Army still admired the German Army and had gotten alot of training there, and continued to run students through its academies without much trouble. Same with China's Beiyang Army too.

Very true but if the Triple Intervention occurs then it will drastically worsen relations with Japan even if Germany doesn't later take territory there.

Well the Entente didn't look kindly on it, and they did push back on Japan's most extreme demands, and they would here, but they had definite limits in how much they can escalate while the war is going on. The British were smart, they knew they were busy with WWI and couldn't and shouldn't bluster about threatening confrontation, but did say that Japan's demands to get a monopoly on advisers to China would make it a protectorate and were not going to fly. The British were honest with the Chinese and didn't promise to come to their rescue. The Japanese reacted pretty well, all things considered, withdrawing the extreme demands on advisors, and the Chinese crumbled on the other demands easily.

The Americans may be stubborn with the Japanese, for instance not being as accommodating in the Lansing-Ishii agreement, but even here, while watching the Atlantic like a hawk, or participating in that war, actually participating in WWI, and having Mexican troubles, Wilson won't exactly rush into a fight with Japan.

As for Japanese bullying of China itself, there might actually be one less occasion for it, if there is no Qingdao operation. Because then the Japanese won't be occupying as a consequence of WWI and trying to get Chinese and global affirmation of their claim, while the Chinese are trying to get the opposite.

The lack of a Qingdao bone of contention leaves both with less incentive to join the war at all.

However, for Japan, providing some naval aid to the global British effort is not that hard. Also, German submarine warfare at some point will sink some Japanese and Chinese merchant ships somewhere, giving a DoW excuse. By the the time that happens and the US declares war over it, it might just look like declaring for the Allies is the right move to make for diplomatic influence and relevance at the peace conference and at the end of the war. Kind of like how everybody and his brother declared war on the Axis by March 1945.

Agree in general.

 

[Airedale260]

They could well sit out the war if NO German bases but are likely to grab Tsingtao if the Germans hold it simply because they can and that would bring them technically into the war. I can see them pressurising China as OTL but unlikely to probe into Russia unless there's a collapse as OTL and the Bolshevik coup makes their territories open for pressure. They won't try anything while there's an internationally recognised Russian government that's part of the alliance as that would be very bad if not fatal for them given the effect on their imports.

It could be, without the Germans buying the Spanish possessions that they stay under Spanish rule. Alternatively I would say the most likely buyers would be Japan themselves or just possibly the US. There's not really a lot to interest Britain or France in that region.

But that’s the whole point of the OP -it was specifically stated Qingdao/Tsingtao was not acquired by the Germans, nor were the Marianas.

New Guinea and Co probably get seized by Australia rather than Japan -given how close it is to them, they aren’t going to be comfortable with the Japanese going “Yoink!”

Samoa and the Marshall Islands are a bit weirder…given the distances involved, I don’t see Japan really interested in Samoa. The Marshall Islands? Japan might try to claim them, but their interests are much closer (China and Korea), so it’s possible the U.S. ends up taking control if and when war breaks out.

China’s reaction is probably only “one less group of assholes to deal with.” The country is in shambles and large swaths are under control of foreign powers. They have no interest in dealing with foreign adventures.

 

[Atarlost]

As you pointed out to Buba there were three different agreements that tied the three powers together in concern about Germany and was the Triple Entente a formal name itself or something used to historians to distinguish it from the Triple Alliance?

I believe it was used in period at least in media, but it doesn't really matter. We are amateur historians who need a way to distinguish the Triple Entente from the Triple Alliance. Calling the former "the allies" sabotages this distinction.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Tsingtao beer never comes into existence.

 

[stevep]

I believe it was used in period at least in media, but it doesn't really matter. We are amateur historians who need a way to distinguish the Triple Entente from the Triple Alliance. Calling the former "the allies" sabotages this distinction.

Not really as it was I think the most widely used term at the time.

 

[stevep]

But that’s the whole point of the OP -it was specifically stated Qingdao/Tsingtao was not acquired by the Germans, nor were the Marianas.

New Guinea and Co probably get seized by Australia rather than Japan -given how close it is to them, they aren’t going to be comfortable with the Japanese going “Yoink!”

Samoa and the Marshall Islands are a bit weirder…given the distances involved, I don’t see Japan really interested in Samoa. The Marshall Islands? Japan might try to claim them, but their interests are much closer (China and Korea), so it’s possible the U.S. ends up taking control if and when war breaks out.

China’s reaction is probably only “one less group of assholes to deal with.” The country is in shambles and large swaths are under control of foreign powers. They have no interest in dealing with foreign adventures.

On the 1st point did forget the OP included the Qingdao/Tsingtao region. However following that the Germans won't have the Marshalls either so would depend on if Spain still has them or has sold them to someone else. A possibility that this might be the Japanese but probably unlikely in ~1900. Or possibly the US annexes them when they did Wake, Guam and the Philippines.

 

[Atarlost]

Not really as it was I think the most widely used term at the time.

The problem is that the Triple Alliance are also the allies and unlike the Triple Entente their organization is actually called an alliance.

It's like commenting on a sporting match between the Iroquois Nation and the Republic of India and calling the Iroquois team "indians."

 

[stevep]

The problem is that the Triple Alliance are also the allies and unlike the Triple Entente their organization is actually called an alliance.

It's like commenting on a sporting match between the Iroquois Nation and the Republic of India and calling the Iroquois team "indians."

Not in the war as the Italians ended up on the other side.

However that boat has already sailed as the term is in common use and is unlikely to change.

 

[raharris1973]

Well their very unlikely to join the CP side because that would alienate Britain, which is both their primary ally and the power that due to its naval power is the greatest potential threat to them. They might not formally join the allies at all as little for them to gain or they might seek to make a token commitment to gain favour with the allies.

Presuming Japan remains neutral towards the European war- not going to war with Germany and the CPs, because in this TL, there is nothing to gain from it, but not going to war against its own ally Britain and the Entente because that's too risky, I could imagine a third, unorthodox, off the wall option for Japan:

Japan as a neutral in the Great War, could have its own private war with another neutral power in the Great War, the Netherlands, over the latter's possessions in the East Indies. If Japan were a member of the Entente or CPs, attacking the DEI would "complicate" the situation for its allies by bringing in Netherlands on the opposite side, but since Japan is neutral, the Dutch can blame the Japanese but neither of the other two alliance blocs.

A somewhat less adventuresome "private war" for Japan would be for them to invade Siam to establish a protectorate. Theoretically, they could try the same with China. It is of greater interest to Japan than either DEI or Siam, but it is also thicker with the interests of other great European powers and the US.