What if bigger Franco-Sardinian victory in the Second War of Italian Independence?

[raharris1973]

In the second War of Italian independence in our timeline in 1859, the French, allied with the Sardinians, defeated the Austrians, resulting in a settlement where Piedmont-Sardinia annexed Lombardy from Austria, and Sardinia-Piedmont ceded Savoy and Nice to France.

It also inspired anti-Hapsburg revolts throughout Italy, Garibaldi's campaigns, and the proclamation of the Kingdom of Italy under Piedmont-Sardinia's House of Savoy within two years, with the Kingdom consisting of the peninsula except for Venezia and Lazio (with Roma) controlled by Austria and French-backed Papal forces respectively.

Could the war of 1859 have been altered to be a bigger, more sweeping, Franco-Sardinian victory, resulting in the Austrian loss of Venetia at this time, and presumably its addition to Piedmont-Sardinia and its inclusion in the Kingdom of Italy at its inception?

If the Kingdom of Italy had Venetia from the beginning, when Bismarck later came into confrontation with the Austrians in 1866, would he be just as likely as OTL to interest the Italians in a Prusso-Italian alliance against Austria to gain remaining irredenta lands from Austria like Trentino and Trieste/Istria/Fiume? Or would Italy have been more likely to sit the conflict out, prioritizing domestic integration and the Rome issue?

If Italy does join Bismarck's Austro-Prussian War of 1866, with a starting position in Venetia, what, if anything, is it likely to win from Austria in the settlement?

If Italy wins territory, probably at the diplomatic table and not due to its own military success, in Trieste-Istria area, how far might the gains extend? As far as Fiume
.Rjeka or Dalmatia? If Italy wins territory in the Trentino area, will their gains be limited to Italian-majority speaking lands of the old Archbishopric of Trent, or extend further north to absorb the German-speaking lands of South Tyrol, up to the Brenner pass?

Supposing Italian gains of at least clearly Italian majority areas of Austria in 1866, if not the 1919 borders won at the Treaty of Saint-Germain, and that German unification occurs like OTL in 1870-1871, how does subsequent European diplomacy work out?

Can the Berlin-Vienna-Rome Triple Alliance of 1881-1882 still be created, or will Austria be too embittered by its extra territorial losses of ancient portions of the Austrian Archduchy to contemplate an alliance with the Kingdom of Italy at all?

On the other hand, if Vienna can write-off it's territorial losses to Italy and sign on to agreements like the Triple Alliance and the Mediterranean agreements of the 1880s, will the Italians, having satisfied most or all of their ethnic or historic claims against Austria, find it easier and more natural to maintain loyalty to their Austro-German allies than OTL, and tend to have more anti-French grievances and irredenta?

 

[PsihoKekec]

Could the war of 1859 have been altered to be a bigger, more sweeping, Franco-Sardinian victory, resulting in the Austrian loss of Venetia at this time, and presumably its addition to Piedmont-Sardinia and its inclusion in the Kingdom of Italy at its inception?

Unlikely, Austrian army was still essentially untouched and in good defensive position, so if Napoleon III wanted to impose harsher conditions on Austria he would have to fight a longer (multi year) and bloodier war. He was aiming for quick, victorious war, prolonged bloodshed for the sake of Italy would make his position in France precarious, he couldn't afford another Sevastopol.

If the Kingdom of Italy had Venetia from the beginning, when Bismarck later came into confrontation with the Austrians in 1866, would he be just as likely as OTL to interest the Italians in a Prusso-Italian alliance against Austria to gain remaining irredenta lands from Austria like Trentino and Trieste/Istria/Fiume? Or would Italy have been more likely to sit the conflict out, prioritizing domestic integration and the Rome issue?

Bismarck was always on the lookout for allies to distract the enemies and Italian politicians were always looking for expansion.

If Italy does join Bismarck's Austro-Prussian War of 1866, with a starting position in Venetia, what, if anything, is it likely to win from Austria in the settlement?

Border on Isonzo? Trieste is out of the question because it was Austria primary port and Austri would be willing to fight tooth and nail for it, forcing Bismarck to fight a prolonged conflict after Könnigsgratz and he was not willing to fight a prolonged conflict after he got what he wanted, just to appease the Italians. This would also mean that as soon as Austrians (or AH) can get Germans separated from Italians there will be a revenge war somewhere between 1880 and 1910, curtailing Austrian ambitions towards the East.

Can the Berlin-Vienna-Rome Triple Alliance of 1881-1882 still be created

Nope, Germany will have to choose between Austria or Italy. Otherwise we might see Paris-Vienna-Moscow alliance.

will the Italians, having satisfied most or all of their ethnic or historic claims against Austria, find it easier and more natural to maintain loyalty to their Austro-German allies than OTL, and tend to have more anti-French grievances and irredenta?

Their claims against France would certainly take precedence, but no matter how much they will take from Austria, they will always want more and if Austria looks weak enough, they will again try to snatch more land if opportunity arises.