raharris1973
Well-known member
What if Austria-Hungary never gave up the occupied Sanjak of Novi Pazar in 1908-09 as part of its annexation of Bosnia?
Austria-Hungary had been occupying and administering both Bosnia and Hercegovina, and the Sanjak of Novi Pazar (which sits southeast of Bosnia, northwest of Kosovo, and in between Serbia and Montenegro) for thirty years by 1908, since the 1878 Treaty of Berlin, while leaving both under titular Ottoman sovereignty.
As part of concluding the controversies brought about by Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia-Hercegovina in 1908, which saw the Serbs mobilize and threaten war and demand 'compensation', and the Austrians threaten war in turn, Vienna ended its thirty year occupation of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar and returned this strip of land to Ottoman actual administration, in addition to nominal sovereignty.
About four years later, in the First Balkan War (1912), Serbia and Montenegro attacked the Ottomans in Novi Pazar and quickly occupied and partitioned the area, achieving a common border with each other.
What if Austria-Hungary felt a bit more confident and that it had no need to appease any of the foreign critics of its Bosnian annexation, Slavic, Turkish, Italian, British or French, with this self-denying gesture of appeasement - the evacuation of Novi Pazar?
Vienna instead simply continues the old status quo administration/occupation regime in nominally Ottoman Novi Pazar, or Vienna outright annexes Novi Pazar alongside Bosnia and Hercegovina.
What consequences and reactions flow from this?
Would this be a 'final straw' causing the Serbs (possibly with the Montenegrins, and possibly the Russians), to declare war on Austria-Hungary?
Would this be a 'final straw' causing the Ottoman Young Turks to declare war on Austria-Hungary?
Both of the above?
Would greater demonstrated Austrian greed in 1908-1909 spur competitive moves by other powers at *Ottoman* expense at that time? Perhaps by Italy against Tripoli or Albania, or by newly independent Bulgaria against Macedonia?
Presuming there are no *immediate* geographic-political consquences, except perhaps more background resentment for Austria-Hungary that isn't expressed by force, what happens a couple years later? If the Balkan League forms like OTL and all members attack the Ottomans in 1912, how does the Austro-Hungarian Army's presence in Novi Pazar, jutting between Montenegro and Serbia, and obstructing much of their potential frontage with the Ottoman forces, obstruct or hinder Serb and Montenegrin operations in the Balkan war, and how does it affect intra-Balkan League bargaining (with Bulgaria and Greece) over division of potential spoils before during, and after the Balkan War?
Austria-Hungary had been occupying and administering both Bosnia and Hercegovina, and the Sanjak of Novi Pazar (which sits southeast of Bosnia, northwest of Kosovo, and in between Serbia and Montenegro) for thirty years by 1908, since the 1878 Treaty of Berlin, while leaving both under titular Ottoman sovereignty.
As part of concluding the controversies brought about by Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia-Hercegovina in 1908, which saw the Serbs mobilize and threaten war and demand 'compensation', and the Austrians threaten war in turn, Vienna ended its thirty year occupation of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar and returned this strip of land to Ottoman actual administration, in addition to nominal sovereignty.
About four years later, in the First Balkan War (1912), Serbia and Montenegro attacked the Ottomans in Novi Pazar and quickly occupied and partitioned the area, achieving a common border with each other.
What if Austria-Hungary felt a bit more confident and that it had no need to appease any of the foreign critics of its Bosnian annexation, Slavic, Turkish, Italian, British or French, with this self-denying gesture of appeasement - the evacuation of Novi Pazar?
Vienna instead simply continues the old status quo administration/occupation regime in nominally Ottoman Novi Pazar, or Vienna outright annexes Novi Pazar alongside Bosnia and Hercegovina.
What consequences and reactions flow from this?
Would this be a 'final straw' causing the Serbs (possibly with the Montenegrins, and possibly the Russians), to declare war on Austria-Hungary?
Would this be a 'final straw' causing the Ottoman Young Turks to declare war on Austria-Hungary?
Both of the above?
Would greater demonstrated Austrian greed in 1908-1909 spur competitive moves by other powers at *Ottoman* expense at that time? Perhaps by Italy against Tripoli or Albania, or by newly independent Bulgaria against Macedonia?
Presuming there are no *immediate* geographic-political consquences, except perhaps more background resentment for Austria-Hungary that isn't expressed by force, what happens a couple years later? If the Balkan League forms like OTL and all members attack the Ottomans in 1912, how does the Austro-Hungarian Army's presence in Novi Pazar, jutting between Montenegro and Serbia, and obstructing much of their potential frontage with the Ottoman forces, obstruct or hinder Serb and Montenegrin operations in the Balkan war, and how does it affect intra-Balkan League bargaining (with Bulgaria and Greece) over division of potential spoils before during, and after the Balkan War?
