What if ASBs teleported sub-Saharan, sub-Nile Africa to the eastern Pacific in 1115 AD?

[raharris1973]

What if ASBs teleported Africa to the Pacific in 1115 AD, with some very important exceptions. These exceptions are the entire drainage basin of the Nile River down to Lake Victoria, the drainage basins of all minor rivers flowing into the Mediterranean and Red Seas, the Sahara generally north of the Tropic of Cancer, and the pointy corner of the Somali Horn of Africa.

The rest of Africa, the southern Sahara, and the river basins of Senegal, Gambia, Niger, Congo, Lake Chad basin, as well as systems of the south, and of the east as far north as Kenya and the Ethiopian interior do go along for the teleportation.

It looks like this:



This other map overlays the major river basins of the continent, so you can see why the continent is sliced up this odd way:



The missing portions of Africa exchange places with an equivalent area of the Pacific Ocean, Pacific Ocean floor and the archipelagos of eastern and central Polynesia.

With this sudden change during the medieval warm period, and ocean waters and currents flowing all around this new, thinner, rump African continent continent consisting mainly of the Maghreb, Egypt, Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Eritrea, and half of Ethiopia and Somalia, how is the climate affected over the ensuing centuries?

Does the vast area of OTL's northern Sahara get consistently more rainfall, and begin to accumulate topsoil and vegetation over time, or not?

As maritime technology advances in the Mediterranean and Europe and China, does the smaller size of rump Africa hasten the discovery and routine operation of a direct Western Europe to Asia sea route around Africa decades or more in advance of Vasco Da Game's inauguration of the route in OTL 1497?

How does the remaining, majority portion of Africa develop in the eastern Pacific in the ensuing centuries, cut off from all further fresh contact with the Middle East and Mediterranean? Does anyone from Africa make contact with the Americas before someone from Europe does?

 

[WolfBear]

I think that Sub-Saharan Africa by itself might only be able to sustain c. 1900 levels of technology, if even that. Maybe 19th century levels of technology. Sub-Saharan Africans are, on average, much duller than Westerners are, so they won't be able to help the 1115 AD world advance up to the 21st century:

http://www.iapsych.com/iqmr/fe/LinkedDocuments/wicherts2010d.pdf

 

[Buba]

The Sahara and south African deserts are there for a reason - the high pressure zones. I cannot
remember the fancy name for it
Once the oceans currents sort themselves out I'd expect NBL (new better location) Africa to be relatively unchanged climatically. Maybe Sahara is a bit wetter? But still a desert. Nevertheless the Sahel and/or rainforest zones should creep north - hence Lake Megachad could re-appear.

I suspect that Egypt is dead. Or at best very weakened. Even if you keep the Ethiopian Highlands in their original location, I'd expect the monsoon to be weaker. And most of Nile's water comes from the BLUE, not White Nile.
Then again, the area around Lake Victoria, no longer in the middle of a content, may acquire rainforest and take up some - or all - of the slack. Still, the Nile flooding pattern should be affected.

For North Africa the salt for gold trade is over. However, with weaker high pressure cell, maybe wetter? Anyways, there should be knock-off effects on politics in Spain - what happened in the Magherb and affected Spain may not happen here.

 

[raharris1973]

I think that Sub-Saharan Africa by itself might only be able to sustain c. 1900 levels of technology, if even that. Maybe 19th century levels of technology. Sub-Saharan Africans are, on average, much duller than Westerners are, so they won't be able to help the 1115 AD world advance up to the 21st century:

http://www.iapsych.com/iqmr/fe/LinkedDocuments/wicherts2010d.pdf

Nobody's sustaining c. 1900 tech levels or close. This isn't modern Africa, this isn't an ISOT through time, it is just moving chunks of land and sea, all from the same time period, 1115. Sailer-ism doesn't even come into it.

I suspect that Egypt is dead. Or at best very weakened. Even if you keep the Ethiopian Highlands in their original location, I'd expect the monsoon to be weaker. And most of Nile's water comes from the BLUE, not White Nile.
Then again, the area around Lake Victoria, no longer in the middle of a content, may acquire rainforest and take up some - or all - of the slack. Still, the Nile flooding pattern should be affected.

After all the trouble I went to keep the *whole* Nile drainage basin with the river and Egypt, including parts of the drainage basin that go down south of the equator. I assume the Blue Nile is in the drainage basin of the Nile shown in the map, and not in the Awash or Juba-Shibeli drainage basins.

With preservation of its water sources, I would think Egypt and Sudan won't lack for wetness. If Egypt has any troubles, it may be from the opposite end, over-flooding when aridity drops and rain increases and adds an excess to the drainage.

 

[Buba]

LOL!
I know you tried
But it could be unsalvageable.
Egypt itself IMO may progress from extreme arid to not quite so arid.
A weaker East African monsoon might not be offset by more precipitation in south (and central?) Sudan.
And even if equatorial rains offset the changes to the monsoon or - potentially even add to it - this will flatten the water regime swings in Egypt, forcing about changes to local agri practices.

Nevertheless - wetter Suand and/or higher Nile = a stronger Nubia? End of Moslem southwards expansion? As this seems to have happened during some sort of Nubian "Golden Age", then this could be a further shot in the arm for the local Christian polities?

If things progress like in OTL (if there even is a Portugal ITTL), the circumnavigation of Africa should happen a few decades sooner. 1470?
I do not expect the Maghreb Arabs to make any maritime discoveries. However, exploration of the new seabord from the Arab east is an interesting prospect ...

The Arab traders "stranded" in East Africa will probably see their skills atrophy once their vesseles fall apart from old age. Many could be lost at sea or eaten by Polynesians and Mesoamericans when searching foir away home. Cut off from their technological base, cut from cultural links (how many of them are literate? how many copies of the Koran do they have? do they have the materials to make new ones?) they either assimilate into the Negro population, or their Arab and Islamic culture becomes very barbaricised. By the time of their discovery in the XVIIth? XVIII? century the might be very difficult to be recognised as Arab and Moslem at all. Any Islamic presence in the West (in the original Sudan) will also drift away from the genuine article.
The Polynesians will discover Africa from the western end, i.e. where there is no tradition of seafaring. Any potential for trade? Can the Polynesians pick up any useful plants and/or animals?

 

[stevep]

I have no way of telling the impact on climate and ocean current but there's probably going to be chaos for decades at least and permanent changes which are likely to be drastic. For instance the ocean currents that cause the El Nino and El Nina events are going to be screwed while with most of Africa removed those in the Atlantic and Indian oceans are going to be massively affected.

However assuming there are more limited impacts then I would say
a) While S Africa is still disadvantaged by the limited animal and domesticated plants available to it the climate might be more moderate which could help. They will lack contact with the rest of the world but are likely to avoid most of the slave attacks of the Muslim world. They might get contact with Polynesians which could bring in new food crops but suspect the region will be held back technologically until its discovered. Most likely by Europeans if the development of Europe isn't totally butterflied but possibly by China under the Mings.

b) N Africa will I suspect overall be wetter and hence more habitable. You might see Christianity survive even stronger in the Nubia and Ethiopia regions as the latter won't be attacked by Somalia and Galla from the east and south. Plus their new southern coastline could help them get more trade and earlier contact with other areas such as Europe and India. On the same hand however it also enables N African Arabs to spread quicker along the southern coast of their new lands. Its likely given the technology of the time that it will be the people from the Maghreb who 1st sail west along the new African shoreline and discover a new route to India and the east. Which could boost them against the nations controlling the old routes through the Red Sea and Iraq. On the other hand the cross Sahara trade in gold and slaves among other items will be drastically curtailed, which in the short term will have a significant impact. Also the east African slave trade and the plantations in the Zanzibar region won't be possible either which will be a loss of economic potential.

c) Europe won't have the sort of technological ability for a period of probably at least a couple of centuries after the PoD but in the short term their attempts at crusades and throwing back the Muslim world in the western regions of Africa and Iberia could be more successful. In the longer term control of the sea route south of rump N Africa could be bitterly contested and if they still develop superior naval technology the European powers could be the winners here. Which would undermine the powers in the eastern Med and Levant, along with probably the Italian city states earlier than OTL. It could well be that the discovery of the Americas could be delayed as the desired sea route to the wealth and products of the east is more easily available and is likely to draw attention away from any western voyages.

 

[Buba]

How important was Egypt in the 1115-1150 period in beating up the Crusaders and Crusader States? As I expect turmoil there - due to changes in Nile water regime - how could this impact events?

 

[stevep]

How important was Egypt in the 1115-1150 period in beating up the Crusaders and Crusader States? As I expect turmoil there - due to changes in Nile water regime - how could this impact events?

Definitely as it is a rich and populous state. For part of the period prior to the 3rd crusade it was somewhat weaker but under Saladin it became the strongest state in the ME. If Europe isn't badly affected by the event there could be opportunities both for the western crusaders, the Byzantine empire and the southern Christians of Nubia and Ethiopia.

If your right that the Nile could be badly affected then its going to be the northern regions almost certainly affected worse as a reduction in the waters going into the upper reaches might still keep them viable but could mean it runs very low by the time it reaches the Egyptian region. For instance if the annual flood is seriously affected then land fertility and crop yields are likely to decline badly which could at its worse mean massive deaths and chaos.

 

[raharris1973]

If you look closely at the map, you'll see that there will be a group of hearty native sailors south of Europe and Africa to check out the new Sahara and Nubia coasts, the Hawaiians and the Tahitians.

 

[WolfBear]

Nobody's sustaining c. 1900 tech levels or close. This isn't modern Africa, this isn't an ISOT through time, it is just moving chunks of land and sea, all from the same time period, 1115. Sailer-ism doesn't even come into it.

Thanks for clarifying, Rob! That said, though, some thoughts for later on in this TL, during the Age of Exploration:

-Could Zheng He discover the Americas in this TL? A Chinese Americas would sound interesting, though AFAIK China wasn't particularly big of overseas colonization, as opposed to overseas exploration, even during the early Ming Dynasty.
-The Portuguese will find it much easier to circumnavigate Africa in this TL. So, the equivalent of Vasco da Gama's voyage to India could occur significantly earlier in this TL.
-Expect North American slavery to have much more of an East African than a West African character to it. Though even there the logistics are likely to be daunting since the Panama Canal or anything simialr won't be built for a very long time, thus requiring naval travel south of Argentina and Chile. Maybe European colonizers of the Americas rely much more on white slaves from the Ottoman Empire instead in this TL? For instance, Slavs who were conquered and/or kidnapped by the Ottomans (or by Ottoman allies, such as the Crimean Tatars), forcibly converted to Islam, and forcibly enslaved?

 

[Buba]

If you look closely at the map, you'll see that there will be a group of hearty native sailors south of Europe and Africa to check out the new Sahara and Nubia coasts, the Hawaiians and the Tahitians.

They may explore those coasts, but the effects might be none. At least until Europeans and or Arabs "discover" said Polynesians and talk to them/torture knowledge out of them, AND such knowledge is disseminated.

 

[raharris1973]

-Could Zheng He discover the Americas in this TL? A Chinese Americas would sound interesting,

Curious about why you think this geography would really make it any more likely than OTL.

-The Portuguese will find it much easier to circumnavigate Africa in this TL. So, the equivalent of Vasco da Gama's voyage to India could occur significantly earlier in this TL.

The overall route is a bit shorter, and a bit easier to figure out and map based on chronicles in languages Europeans will know. But it still won’t be very short, one still has to swing south if the equator at one point around lake Victoria, and fresh water holes on the way to Nubia will be few and far between, at least at first, on the newly exposed Sahara beach.

-Expect North American slavery to have much more of an East African than a West African character to it. Though even there the logistics are likely to be daunting since the Panama Canal or anything simialr won't be built for a very long time, thus requiring naval travel south of Argentina and Chile.

For these reasons I would say the African slave trade from Pacific Africa will be almost nil in the first few centuries of European settlement in America, with none of it penetrating the North American market and maybe some contributing to the labor pool in Peru in South America.

The Muslim and western slave trade in sub - Saharans will be greatly reduced, down to Nubians, Some Ethiopians, Somalis and Ugandans. Even that triangular trade won’t be too efficient at supplying the Western Hemisphere as opposed to the Middle East.

 

[WolfBear]

Curious about why you think this geography would really make it any more likely than OTL.

Because he'd already reach the southern edge of Africa in this TL and thus might be curious to see what lies beyond it?

FWIW, here's a map of his voyages in real life:

 

[raharris1973]

Because he'd already reach the southern edge of Africa in this TL and thus might be curious to see what lies beyond it?

Yes, he would reach Cape Buganda or whatever it might be called, and the Africa would open up to a new ocean, and he might be curious to see what lies beyond it. But the Americas? The Americas are a whole, whole, whole, whole lot of beyond from there. And the first stops after the Cape wouldn't be too exciting, wow, some primitive, politically unsophisticated people's living in some tropical savannas and rainforests, then a long-ass stretch of sandy beach merging with inland desert forever beyond it.

 

[WolfBear]

Yes, he would reach Cape Buganda or whatever it might be called, and the Africa would open up to a new ocean, and he might be curious to see what lies beyond it. But the Americas? The Americas are a whole, whole, whole, whole lot of beyond from there. And the first stops after the Cape wouldn't be too exciting, wow, some primitive, politically unsophisticated people's living in some tropical savannas and rainforests, then a long-ass stretch of sandy beach merging with inland desert forever beyond it.

Could he at least get to Europe?

 

[Buba]

Yes, he would reach Cape Buganda

Love the name

Could he at least get to Europe?

No.

 

[raharris1973]

Could he at least get to Europe?

Even that is hard, given his distance from home, but yeah, Iberia is way more achievable than the Americas.

If you want to get Zheng He to reach Europe, you're much better off in a scenario where I've teleported all of the African continent, including Egypt, to the Pacific, to "get it out of his way". That way, if he follows the distances of the 1417-1419 and 1421-1422 voyages north up the west coast of Arabia/Asia instead of south to Africa like OTL, he easily gets to Haifa, Beirut, Antioch, Crete, Athens, Constantinople.

 

[Buba]

In the "whole Africa ISOT" scenario complaints about cheap Chinese imports begin half a thousand years earlier ...

 

[WolfBear]

Even that is hard, given his distance from home, but yeah, Iberia is way more achievable than the Americas.

If you want to get Zheng He to reach Europe, you're much better off in a scenario where I've teleported all of the African continent, including Egypt, to the Pacific, to "get it out of his way". That way, if he follows the distances of the 1417-1419 and 1421-1422 voyages north up the west coast of Arabia/Asia instead of south to Africa like OTL, he easily gets to Haifa, Beirut, Antioch, Crete, Athens, Constantinople.

Imagine someone in the 1920s or whenever subsequently making a movie with a title along the lines of "The Eunuch Chinaman in Constantinople"!