What if ASBs compel Stalin to take the most anti-Hitler stand possible...but do nothing in western neighboring countries without their consent?

[raharris1973]

What if ASBs compel Stalin to take the most anti-Hitler stand possible? So, this prevents him from agreeing to any open non-aggression pacts with Hitler's Germany or any trade deals with Hitler's Germany, and prevents him from agreeing to any secret protocols to partition Poland and the Baltics in Eastern Europe. It also makes him amenable to military conventions and economic warfare collaboration with those opposing Hitler like Britain, France and Poland, and possibly other recipients of British guarantees like Romania, Turkey and Greece.


...but ASBs also compel Stalin do nothing to his western neighboring countries, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Romania, on *their* territory without their consent. So that puts a limit on Soviet military deployments so long as Poland as the others, understandably, object to Soviet deployments on their soil.

Without the open and secret pacts with the Soviet Union in the bag, and with the Anglo-Polish defense pact announced at the end of August, does Hitler still attack Poland?

If Hitler does attack Poland, and then London, Paris, and Moscow follow up with declarations of war on Germany, how does the USSR go about pursuing an anti-Hitler policy, prosecute a war against Germany, and practically cooperate with its allies to the immediate west (Poland) and further west (France and Britain), assuming its offers to send ground forces to join in the defense of Poland, in Poland, are rejected by the Poles?

 

[WolfBear]

If Hitler does attack Poland, and then London, Paris, and Moscow follow up with declarations of war on Germany, how does the USSR go about pursuing an anti-Hitler policy, prosecute a war against Germany, and practically cooperate with its allies to the immediate west (Poland) and further west (France and Britain), assuming its offers to send ground forces to join in the defense of Poland, in Poland, are rejected by the Poles?

Possibly by sending its own forces to France through the Straits and the Mediterranean Sea?

 

[raharris1973]

Possibly by sending its own forces to France through the Straits and the Mediterranean Sea?

Hmm, the SEF - Soviet Expeditionary Force? Never would have occurred to me.

The straits and Med seem to be the longer way around, but safer from German naval interdiction. The Baltic would be the more direct route to Northern France.

Aside from that quite original idea, there's some basic, obvious things the Soviets can do:

Sortie the Soviet Baltic Fleet to harass the German Fleet, send the White Sea Fleet to junction with the Royal Navy and operate jointly, and move further on for Baltic operations.

Join fully in Franco-British economic warfare against Germany, by embargoing trade with Germany, supplying surplus materials to France, Britain, and Poland, and putting pressure on Romania to minimize oil sales to Germany, and take part along with Britain and France, in 'preclusive purchasing' of other potential war supplies from suppliers inside and outside of Europe before Germany gets the chance to buy those same supplies.

There's also using their influence in Communist parties and organized labor movements to shore up parliamentary support for allied war efforts and to ensure labor peace in western factories and an absence of strikes that threaten war production.

For assistance specifically to the Polish war effort, the Soviets can supply generic consumables of food, fuel, medical support, and use of the Soviet logistical network, especially rail and Black Sea ports (and White Sea ports) for transit of supplies from the British Empire, French Empire or third party vendors to Poland.

For as many days/weeks as the Poles are maintaining cohesion, the Soviets can also supply weapons and ammo of all sorts, from the simple to complex. The Poles will need some instruction on using Soviet systems, and the complex the system, the more instruction, and will have to decide where they will take it, by sending over soldiers to the USSR to get trained as they pick up Soviet weapons, or to accept Soviet training teams to come along with shipments of weapons.

Also, by any point in which Nazi spearheads have reached portions of eastern Poland within range of Soviet bombing and ground attack aircraft, the Polish situation will be very, very dire, and I can't imagine the Poles begrudging or interfering with Soviet air sorties from their own Soviet airbases against either Nazi ground forces or Nazi air forces.

Indeed at some point, don't know when, possibly with the crossing of the Vistula or San, possibly with the encirclement or taking of Warsaw, possibly a bit earlier, or a bit later, I think the Poles would drop their objection first to all-out Soviet air intervention and then ground intervention against the Germans.

Additionally, I think with the Soviets aligned against the Nazis and with the western powers, the Romanians are going to feel safer following through on their alliance with Poland, and the Poles will probably try to be seeking Romanian active aid from the beginning and orienting their fighting retreat toward Romania, and hope to base their comeback out of that direction.

 

[WolfBear]

Hmm, the SEF - Soviet Expeditionary Force? Never would have occurred to me.

The straits and Med seem to be the longer way around, but safer from German naval interdiction. The Baltic would be the more direct route to Northern France.

Yes, the SEF.

And the Baltic Sea would be very dangerous due to German submarines, no?

Will respond to the rest of your post here later!

 

[sillygoose]

If this means no Molotov-Ribbentrop pact I doubt Hitler risks war in 1939. Because Stalin would ally with the Allies instead of Germany in 1939. That means Hitler is boxed in and that's that. Effectively it would also mean Germany has to revert to the Schacht economic policy of neo-colonialism and limit armaments to keep imports under control:


However with Hitler boxed in Chamberlain is going to have the restrained Germany he wanted, which means in time he can drop support for Poland since it is now Stalin who is the Allies' Eastern partner. Poland might well then start coming back around to Hitler's side if it looks like their western partners are in bed with Stalin and Hitler gets what he wants in the long run anyway.

 

[ATP]

What if ASBs compel Stalin to take the most anti-Hitler stand possible? So, this prevents him from agreeing to any open non-aggression pacts with Hitler's Germany or any trade deals with Hitler's Germany, and prevents him from agreeing to any secret protocols to partition Poland and the Baltics in Eastern Europe. It also makes him amenable to military conventions and economic warfare collaboration with those opposing Hitler like Britain, France and Poland, and possibly other recipients of British guarantees like Romania, Turkey and Greece.


...but ASBs also compel Stalin do nothing to his western neighboring countries, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Romania, on *their* territory without their consent. So that puts a limit on Soviet military deployments so long as Poland as the others, understandably, object to Soviet deployments on their soil.

Without the open and secret pacts with the Soviet Union in the bag, and with the Anglo-Polish defense pact announced at the end of August, does Hitler still attack Poland?

If Hitler does attack Poland, and then London, Paris, and Moscow follow up with declarations of war on Germany, how does the USSR go about pursuing an anti-Hitler policy, prosecute a war against Germany, and practically cooperate with its allies to the immediate west (Poland) and further west (France and Britain), assuming its offers to send ground forces to join in the defense of Poland, in Poland, are rejected by the Poles?

Then all he need would be sell Poland,let say,3000 AT 45mm guns, 1000 T.26,1000 I.16,300 SB.2,some 1000 artillery pieces.
Hitler is stopped cold if he try anything.
The same later with France,but sell mainly BT tanks and I.16 fighters.Germany slowly crushed with soviets getting a lot of money and do not loosing troops.

 

[raharris1973]

Then all he need would be sell Poland,let say,3000 AT 45mm guns, 1000 T.26,1000 I.16,300 SB.2,some 1000 artillery pieces.
Hitler is stopped cold if he try anything.
The same later with France,but sell mainly BT tanks and I.16 fighters.Germany slowly crushed with soviets getting a lot of money and do not loosing troops.

How quickly could the Poles learn to use these systems, especially the tanks, especially if Stalin only comes to this point once the Poles are under attack or at the time of the announcement of the M-R Pact when there were just one or two weeks to go?

Would the Poles need deliveries and training from an earlier point in 1939 than August, to take advantage?

I imagine the Poles wouldn't accept any Soviet offers until at least April 1939, after Hitler's demands for Danzig, the extraterritorial highway, and the British guarantee of Poland's sovereignty.

You're talking about-

3000 AT (anti-tank) 45mm guns,

1000 I.16. - these are fighter aircraft? Ilyushin?

1000 T.26 tanks

300 SB.2 - what are these?

....and then you suggest selling to the French - the French would have more time to make use of these.

You know what they could all use for fighting vehicles, at least command vehicles? Radios. The Germans were ahead of the French on that. I don't know if the Soviets were ahead of the French on that though.

 

[bintananth]

1000 I.16. - these are fighter aircraft? Ilyushin?

Polikarpov. Dumpy looking, sturdy, and derived from a biplane. Also fairly fast and nimble with decent firepower, but tricky to fly well. A very under-rated fighter plane.

Soviet radios and non-combat logistical support is probably more useful in the immediate aftermath of a German DOW on Poland than arms shipments.

Stalin using Soviet influence to keep a lid on the activites of the Communists in other Allied countries would also be invaluable.

 

[sillygoose]

Polikarpov. Dumpy looking, sturdy, and derived from a biplane. Also fairly fast and nimble with decent firepower, but tricky to fly well. A very under-rated fighter plane.

Soviet radios and non-combat logistical support is probably more useful in the immediate aftermath of a German DOW on Poland than arms shipments.

Stalin using Soviet influence to keep a lid on the activites of the Communists in other Allied countries would also be invaluable.

The IL-16 was rated appropriately given its actual combat performance.

You know what they could all use for fighting vehicles, at least command vehicles? Radios. The Germans were ahead of the French on that. I don't know if the Soviets were ahead of the French on that though.

Two or even one man turrets would make that only a minor help. French tank design wasn't the best; much like the early T-34 their designs had good armor and guns relative to the times, but poor ergonomics and 'soft' factors. When it came down to it the German designs, as light as they appeared, were ultimately superior because the soft factors allowed them to outfight the heavier designs thanks to better training and organization.

 

[bintananth]

The IL-16 was rated appropriately given its actual combat performance.

That is a discussion for the Warbirds thread.

Hmm ... some other butterflies this scenario introduces assuming Hitler attacks Poland on the RL date:

Poland still falls, but it takes longer. Germany is now in a two-front war against Britain, France, and the USSR in 1939.

- France does not fall (SEF or no SEF to France) because Germany can not pull enough troops from Poland to get past the French Army and the BEF
- No Winter War means Finland doesn't turn Axis
- No Soviet occupation of Bessarabia probably keeps Romania neutral
- Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania stay out of it
- Bulgaria doesn't get the "join us or you're next" ultimatium from the Axis
- Italy doesn't DOW the West because there's no opportunity for a land-grab against a collapsing France
- Italy may still go after Yugoslavia and/or Greece, but that'll irritate everyone except for maybe the Bulgarians

In the Pacific and Asia Japan is already at war with China and absolutely screwed. With Stalin on his best behavior and playing nice with the West:

- Chinese Communists and Nationalists are actually working together
- The US can sell "guns, oil, and butter" to everyone friendly without having to use the CBI route to get it to China
- No Vichy France means the Japanese do not occupy French Indochina and Tailand doesn't turn Axis, severely hindering any plans they have for taking the oil and rubber produced in the Dutch East Indies

 

[Atarlost]

If Italy doesn't join the war that frees up the Royal Navy's 1st Battle Squadron, 1st Cruiser Squadron, 3rd Cruiser Squadron, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Destroyer Flotillas, and HMS Glorious to respond to threats in the Pacific. I don't think Japan joins the war either under those circumstances.

 

[bintananth]

If Italy doesn't join the war that frees up the Royal Navy's 1st Battle Squadron, 1st Cruiser Squadron, 3rd Cruiser Squadron, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Destroyer Flotillas, and HMS Glorious to respond to threats in the Pacific. I don't think Japan joins the war either under those circumstances.

Probably more on the RNs side because Bismark, Tirpitz, and Prinz Eugen probably don't get completed and the British don't lose much of anything in the Med unless a U-boat manages to slip past Gibraltar.

Plus, there will be French and Soviet capital ships* in the Med and North Sea to help the RN when it comes to telling the Kreigsmarine and Regia Marina "I wouldn't do that if I was you."

* light cruisers or larger in this ASB scenario.

EDIT: Norway probably doesn't get invaded. Historically, that was a disaster for the Kreigsmarine.

 

[ATP]

How quickly could the Poles learn to use these systems, especially the tanks, especially if Stalin only comes to this point once the Poles are under attack or at the time of the announcement of the M-R Pact when there were just one or two weeks to go?

Would the Poles need deliveries and training from an earlier point in 1939 than August, to take advantage?

I imagine the Poles wouldn't accept any Soviet offers until at least April 1939, after Hitler's demands for Danzig, the extraterritorial highway, and the British guarantee of Poland's sovereignty.

You're talking about-

3000 AT (anti-tank) 45mm guns,

1000 I.16. - these are fighter aircraft? Ilyushin?

1000 T.26 tanks

300 SB.2 - what are these?

....and then you suggest selling to the French - the French would have more time to make use of these.

You know what they could all use for fighting vehicles, at least command vehicles? Radios. The Germans were ahead of the French on that. I don't know if the Soviets were ahead of the French on that though.

AT guns were not much different then polish 37mm Bofors,so no much training need.
T.26 - very easy to use,but here we probably have shortage of even half trained crews.But,at least,crwes of FT17 and Vickers E could use them.
I.16 - all polish fighter pilots,and many trainees could use them.
SB.2 - medium bomber by Tupolew.No many crews we would for them.

radios - only soviet tank commanders of companies have such.Germans would still be better in that regard.

Another thing - we have obsolate armored cars,soviet BA10 as replacment would do.

 

[WolfBear]

If Italy doesn't join the war that frees up the Royal Navy's 1st Battle Squadron, 1st Cruiser Squadron, 3rd Cruiser Squadron, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Destroyer Flotillas, and HMS Glorious to respond to threats in the Pacific. I don't think Japan joins the war either under those circumstances.

That means no Pearl Harbor, no?