What if Alien Space Bats replace Europe in 1878 with virgin earth?

[raharris1973]

What if ASBs intervene in a TL like ours up until 1878, but in 1878, Europe is replaced with virgin earth?

How does the history and development of the planet proceed?

Here's the world map:

By the way, I'm counting the Caucasus provinces as part of Russian Asia, so that includes Georgia, which this year already includes Mama Djugshvili with a baby Stalin bun in the oven.

Among the immediate consequences are that Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines & Spanish East Indies get immediate de facto independence. There's no critical mass holding them together without Spain or the Spanish Crown. In celebration of early independence, the Cubans probably abolish slavery 6 or 7 years early.

Algeria is the largest critical mass of the French overseas empire. Other than that, it is small scattered holdings, and I'm not sure how large it's French (and overall European) settler population was by 1878. The Dutch and Portuguese empires are scattered, limited holdings.

There's a decent chance that the Empire of Brazil may be able to claim inheritance of the Portuguese overseas empire, or at least its African parts, if not its Far East parts.

The British Empire and Russian Empire leave the most substantial "leftovers" of European states, between Russian Asia, vast, not super-populous, but decently populated in the Caucasus and Urals-Western Siberia region. The British leave behind the Raj, Canada, and the Antipodes. And don't know who the senior figure left behind will be, if there will be any blood royals, but there will certainly be viceroys, governors-general and nobility, and in the case of white dominions of Britain, responsible legislatures.

The world has just lost the bulk of its industry and economy and finances. It also lost its greatest source of carbon emissions but also sun-blocking pollutants from coal-burning. However, America is rising up to fill the gap.

The global economy and finance has to make due without its center of liquidity, London. That will take some adjustment. America is the natural successor, although in the coming years, Mexico would actually have a stabler currency.

Without British or European industrial competition, the traditional American and Republican high protective tariff policy soon makes no sense. America has no peer in high end industrial manufacturing. Latin America, Canada, and Australia all lean toward primary products and have some industry but none match the scale and sophistication of the USA. China, Japan, India are all lower end and handicraft based. America will soon be thinking and saying the ideology of free trade is great.

The bottom-less well of European labor that was used to raise American industrial and agricultural production to ever greater heights is abruptly cut off. Instead of representing people, Europe now represents that much more woodland and grassland for someone to eventually develop.

American settlement of the plains, or with farm homesteads at least, as opposed to large cattle ranches and ranges, may be slowed down by a shortage of new Central and Northern European arrivals seeking land of their own. American industry will face a higher cost of labor and have to tap into previous underutilized sources, like the American south.

This situation could create an interesting tug of war when the Chinese Exclusion Act is due to be passed just 4 years later in 1882. There may well be a more vigorous industrial capitalist lobby against it. Even presuming the broadly popular measure passes, its just a matter of time before agriculture and industry begins to import Japanese labor in large numbers. It's share of the total will be higher and more conspicuous than OTL. That might be ultimately accepted, out of economic necessity, or, the cultural racial differences leading to Chinese exclusion may repeat themselves again and become a matter of public policy debate by the 1890s or early 1900s.

In terms of American foreign policy, there's no one with the power to really shut out, or exclude American trade from anywhere, and America will be by default the most powerful countries in the world, although some large Latin American fleets can have some large fleets too. On the other hand, there is little spur to either the American, or Japanese, competitive spirit. America has no Spain to have a Spanish-American war with, and no Cuban war to be watching.

Japan will have its memory of being forcibly opened and seen the opium war, but after the change, won't be getting constant new reminders from ongoing European partition of Asia and Africa how dog-eat-dog the modern world is supposed to be, to compel a further "toughening up", militarization, or navalism.

 

[WolfBear]

I would expect the US and Ottoman Empire to launch a renewed competition over Europe in such a scenario. Russia might try joining in on the fun but won't have the necessary demographic heft for this due to most of its population disappearing. Though China might try to resettle the frontier issue with Russia in its favor in such a scenario since Russia will no longer have its vast European manpower reserves to rely upon in any future Russo-Chinese War.

Fun times!

 

[stevep]

What if ASBs intervene in a TL like ours up until 1878, but in 1878, Europe is replaced with virgin earth?

How does the history and development of the planet proceed?

Here's the world map:

By the way, I'm counting the Caucasus provinces as part of Russian Asia, so that includes Georgia, which this year already includes Mama Djugshvili with a baby Stalin bun in the oven.

Among the immediate consequences are that Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines & Spanish East Indies get immediate de facto independence. There's no critical mass holding them together without Spain or the Spanish Crown. In celebration of early independence, the Cubans probably abolish slavery 6 or 7 years early.

Algeria is the largest critical mass of the French overseas empire. Other than that, it is small scattered holdings, and I'm not sure how large it's French (and overall European) settler population was by 1878. The Dutch and Portuguese empires are scattered, limited holdings.

There's a decent chance that the Empire of Brazil may be able to claim inheritance of the Portuguese overseas empire, or at least its African parts, if not its Far East parts.

The British Empire and Russian Empire leave the most substantial "leftovers" of European states, between Russian Asia, vast, not super-populous, but decently populated in the Caucasus and Urals-Western Siberia region. The British leave behind the Raj, Canada, and the Antipodes. And don't know who the senior figure left behind will be, if there will be any blood royals, but there will certainly be viceroys, governors-general and nobility, and in the case of white dominions of Britain, responsible legislatures.

The world has just lost the bulk of its industry and economy and finances. It also lost its greatest source of carbon emissions but also sun-blocking pollutants from coal-burning. However, America is rising up to fill the gap.

The global economy and finance has to make due without its center of liquidity, London. That will take some adjustment. America is the natural successor, although in the coming years, Mexico would actually have a stabler currency.

Without British or European industrial competition, the traditional American and Republican high protective tariff policy soon makes no sense. America has no peer in high end industrial manufacturing. Latin America, Canada, and Australia all lean toward primary products and have some industry but none match the scale and sophistication of the USA. China, Japan, India are all lower end and handicraft based. America will soon be thinking and saying the ideology of free trade is great.

The bottom-less well of European labor that was used to raise American industrial and agricultural production to ever greater heights is abruptly cut off. Instead of representing people, Europe now represents that much more woodland and grassland for someone to eventually develop.

American settlement of the plains, or with farm homesteads at least, as opposed to large cattle ranches and ranges, may be slowed down by a shortage of new Central and Northern European arrivals seeking land of their own. American industry will face a higher cost of labor and have to tap into previous underutilized sources, like the American south.

This situation could create an interesting tug of war when the Chinese Exclusion Act is due to be passed just 4 years later in 1882. There may well be a more vigorous industrial capitalist lobby against it. Even presuming the broadly popular measure passes, its just a matter of time before agriculture and industry begins to import Japanese labor in large numbers. It's share of the total will be higher and more conspicuous than OTL. That might be ultimately accepted, out of economic necessity, or, the cultural racial differences leading to Chinese exclusion may repeat themselves again and become a matter of public policy debate by the 1890s or early 1900s.

In terms of American foreign policy, there's no one with the power to really shut out, or exclude American trade from anywhere, and America will be by default the most powerful countries in the world, although some large Latin American fleets can have some large fleets too. On the other hand, there is little spur to either the American, or Japanese, competitive spirit. America has no Spain to have a Spanish-American war with, and no Cuban war to be watching.

Japan will have its memory of being forcibly opened and seen the opium war, but after the change, won't be getting constant new reminders from ongoing European partition of Asia and Africa how dog-eat-dog the modern world is supposed to be, to compel a further "toughening up", militarization, or navalism.

Have you by any chance read a story called Darwinia, which has a similar theme, although with some different circumstances and things aren't quite what they seem?

Leaving that aside one issue is does the effect include Malta or ships at sea? If not then a good bit of the British fleet and merchant marine are still about although lacking the resources to support them for long.

America will be the big giant power, at least in the short term - next few decades. As in the book I mentioned its likely to get distinctly aggressive, especially since the imperialist movement is starting to look aboard at this stage as continental expansion is running into limits. Although Canada is now far less protected.

Not sure what the population and resource base of Russia east of the Urals is at this point but don't think its massive and its control of parts of central Asia could now be questioned by both locals and also possibly the Ottomans plus possibly China or in a short time Japan.

Although their lost their capital and European lands the Ottomans, if they can get their act together could become significant players again in Europe and barring the US quite possibly the major gainers. They have one of the largest populations of the neighbouring powers and are favourably located geographically. You might also see the Moroccans seeking expansion into Iberia and possibly even the Tunisians into Sicily/Italy.

I would expect that the French from Algeria will seek to move into at least southern France and probably claim the entire country. Similarly the British diaspora is likely to seek to reclaim the British Isles. In both cases the issue would be how big an impact this and the loss of the home base will have on the stability of their empires and also interaction with other powers seeking to grab lands themselves. [The key player here would be the US and how greedy it is - in the book I mentioned it a few years down the line attacked and crushed the European expat settlers communities established in Europe. However that could be simply because the author wanted it.] Otherwise I could see assorted neighbouring groups and expat communities seeking to settle Europe again but who wins out in the assorted struggles would be difficult to tell.

By the way Brazil is already fully independent of Portugal for about 50 years by this time.

 

[WolfBear]

Have you by any chance read a story called Darwinia, which has a similar theme, although with some different circumstances and things aren't quite what they seem?

Leaving that aside one issue is does the effect include Malta or ships at sea? If not then a good bit of the British fleet and merchant marine are still about although lacking the resources to support them for long.

America will be the big giant power, at least in the short term - next few decades. As in the book I mentioned its likely to get distinctly aggressive, especially since the imperialist movement is starting to look aboard at this stage as continental expansion is running into limits. Although Canada is now far less protected.

Not sure what the population and resource base of Russia east of the Urals is at this point but don't think its massive and its control of parts of central Asia could now be questioned by both locals and also possibly the Ottomans plus possibly China or in a short time Japan.

Although their lost their capital and European lands the Ottomans, if they can get their act together could become significant players again in Europe and barring the US quite possibly the major gainers. They have one of the largest populations of the neighbouring powers and are favourably located geographically. You might also see the Moroccans seeking expansion into Iberia and possibly even the Tunisians into Sicily/Italy.

I would expect that the French from Algeria will seek to move into at least southern France and probably claim the entire country. Similarly the British diaspora is likely to seek to reclaim the British Isles. In both cases the issue would be how big an impact this and the loss of the home base will have on the stability of their empires and also interaction with other powers seeking to grab lands themselves. [The key player here would be the US and how greedy it is - in the book I mentioned it a few years down the line attacked and crushed the European expat settlers communities established in Europe. However that could be simply because the author wanted it.] Otherwise I could see assorted neighbouring groups and expat communities seeking to settle Europe again but who wins out in the assorted struggles would be difficult to tell.

By the way Brazil is already fully independent of Portugal for about 50 years by this time.

Things would suck for the US due to its European source of immigration disappearing. The US would somehow have to figure out a way to keep its own native birth rates high. And of course its relationship with Japan will be interesting: Will it view Japan as a potential ally or as a potential rival? Japan was already interested in industrialization and modernization by 1878, after all.

 

[Skallagrim]

Okay, first things first: without European backing, basically all non-settler colonies are fucked. They were never set up in such a way as to be able to function, in the face of resilient native opposition, without extensive power from the European mother country to prop up the colonial regimes. Everything from the French in Indochina and Nouvelle-Calédonie to the Dutch East Indies and the British Raj... they'd dead. As soon as the native inhabitants discover that Europe no longer exists and that their colonial rulers will not be getting any reinforecements any kind whatever, the game is up.

The smarter colonial administrators will realise this, and they'll have access to the full (or adequately complete) picture before any would-be native rebel does. As such, expect withdrawal plans to be drawn up. This begs the question: where to go?

Europe is presumably out. Virgin Earth is a terrible thing, because it means rugged, uncultivated landscape. Natural forests do not look like the planted quasi-parks that we typically recognise. There will be no roads. Not even the trails that a Native American hunter may have handily cut out of the tangles in colonial North America. There will be none of that. There will be forest and swamp and undergrowth and a vast number of wild animals. The land will be unsuitable to cultivation, because the ground be full of stones. In OTL, those were removed over literal thousands of years, as people moved in, and gradually bcame more agrarian and settled. The point being: Europe is basically the cold equivalent of deepest, darkest Africa now. Impenetrable and deadly to settlers. The spots we'd most readily recognise won't even exist. Without human action, rivers will still flow in different curves, and the spots where we built our greatest cities are likely to be under water. Or, at best, an impassable bog.

The European colonials that get a chance to make for greener pastures will probably head for whatever white-majority regions still exist. Australian and New Zealand will see an influx of survivors from the Raj, the Dutch East Indies, and various other colonies around the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Nationality will matter little.

South Africa may like-wise survive, via (essentially) early apartheid and quite a bit of slaughter. The Anglos and the Boers have the best odds if they basically agree to a loose partnership in order to ensure their mutual survival. If they stubbornly turn on each other, they're screwed.

Continental Latin America, Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Philippines all have fairly good perspectives, although they'll need to find trade partners, and pronto. Where applicable, independence just comes early and easy.

The rest of the Caribbean and the Guyanas are totally screwed, and the white colonials will pack up and make for the USA if they know what's good for them. What's left behind will look a lot like Haiti in its worst days.

The USA and Canada, meanwhile, are in the same boat and they know it. I foresee close partnership, possibly moving towards just absorbing Canada into the Union. (There being no more Britain and no more Queen, any objections to joining a Republican country are functionally moot.) The "North American Alliance/Union" will no doubt annex Greenland without even blinking, and will likewise occupty Bermuda and the Bahamas. Possibly also Jamaica, depending on how things play out there. Cuba and Puerto Rico are going to be trade partners, who will jump when Big Brother says 'frog'.

The French in Algeria may form guarded coastal enclaves, besieged by the inhabitants of the hinterland.

The remaining Russians are screwed. In the Caucasus, the native populations will quickly assert independence. East of the Urals, small remnant-states of ethnic Russians may persist, but the bulk of the former empire will just evaporate due to lack of control.

China, with no more European threat to deal with, will eagerly move to take back all of Manchuria from former Russia.

Colonisation of the European Wilderness will be slow-going. The great Ottoman success that some have imagined here is just a pipe-dream, as I have explained by simply outlining the realities of what "virgin Earth" entails.

 

[gral]

By the way Brazil is already fully independent of Portugal for about 50 years by this time.

It is, and Brazil accepted to sever the many ties it had with Africa as part of the recognition of Brazilian independence by Portugal back in the late 1820s. But here, the temptation is too big not to go for Angola at the very least(and the Portuguese themselves would be asking for it).

This would also be a major shitstorm in Brazilian politics, to say the very least. The pro-slavery lobby would try to revive the slave trade, and it would fail, IMO; the abolitionist lobby already was too strong in Brazil, and slavery already was with its days counted by 1878. My guess is the pro-slavery group(which was centered on the Paraíba do Sul River Valley) would decide the future was in the African territories and move there, to enact de facto slavery on the natives, as de jure slavery was on its way out. I could even see some planters simply leaving their lands and telling their slaves 'You're free now. Do what you will.'. As these planters still were a powerful block on Brazilian politics, their moving to Africa would have consequences in Brazilian politics.

As for the other group of coffee planters, the Western São Paulo State land-owners, they would be affected by losing their source of labour, even though European immigration to Brazil only really takes off in the 1890s. These planters would have to find other sources of freedmen labour for their farms. I can see two possibilities:

1) From Brazil itself: the Brazilian Northeast has been exporting people to other regions since the late 1850s at the very least, due to a combination of harsh climate and terrain and high childbirth rate; historically, a lot of that surplus ended up in the Amazon extracting rubber sap, and the waves of newcomers drove people deeper and deeper into the jungle until we had a lot of Brazilians in Bolivian territory(which would result in Brazil gaining the Acre Territory in 1903). If this surplus goes to the Southeast coffee farms instead, there is (much)less pressure on the rubber extraction workers to expand their grounds, and perhaps Acre remains Bolivian;

2) From Asia: historically, Brazil, due to cultural reasons(which I'll go on more detail in the next paragraph), only turned to Japanese immigration after their main source of European immigrants(Italy) started restricting/forbidding immigration to Brazil(in... 1904, IIRC). Here, most of the 1,500,000 Italians who came to Brazil(including the ancestor of my paternal grandmother, which probably came from Veneto, given her surname) won't. I believe that Japanese immigration to Brazil would start much earlier than the historical 1908. I also believe there would be some Chinese immigration, but that would depend on how things would go in China after Europe goes away. As for Indian immigration, I don't think it would happen in substantial numbers.

On the cultural side, there was a belief espoused by some, during the second half of the 19th Century, that the Brazilian people needed to be 'whitened' in order to Brazil become a rich, prosperous, developed nation. In fact, one of the strongest arguments for European immigration at the time was that more Europeans would help transform Brazil into a more European nation. Brazil would even grant Brazilian nationality to all Europeans living in the country in the early 1890s, in great part due to that belief. Here, the 'whitening' of Brazilian society wouldn't be possible, as the remaining Europeans would mostly go to other countries, like the USA, Canada, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. At best, if Brazil gets more Asian immigrants, there would be a 'yellowing' of Brazilian society. This also means we possibly wouldn't see the eradication of the incipient black middle-class that historically happened in the 1880-1930 period, which has some major consequences for racism in Brazil, as a lot of it, in spite of what many leftists say, is related to the fact that 'black = poor' for many.

 

[stevep]

Okay, first things first: without European backing, basically all non-settler colonies are fucked. They were never set up in such a way as to be able to function, in the face of resilient native opposition, without extensive power from the European mother country to prop up the colonial regimes. Everything from the French in Indochina and Nouvelle-Calédonie to the Dutch East Indies and the British Raj... they'd dead. As soon as the native inhabitants discover that Europe no longer exists and that their colonial rulers will not be getting any reinforecements any kind whatever, the game is up.

The smarter colonial administrators will realise this, and they'll have access to the full (or adequately complete) picture before any would-be native rebel does. As such, expect withdrawal plans to be drawn up. This begs the question: where to go?

Europe is presumably out. Virgin Earth is a terrible thing, because it means rugged, uncultivated landscape. Natural forests do not look like the planted quasi-parks that we typically recognise. There will be no roads. Not even the trails that a Native American hunter may have handily cut out of the tangles in colonial North America. There will be none of that. There will be forest and swamp and undergrowth and a vast number of wild animals. The land will be unsuitable to cultivation, because the ground be full of stones. In OTL, those were removed over literal thousands of years, as people moved in, and gradually bcame more agrarian and settled. The point being: Europe is basically the cold equivalent of deepest, darkest Africa now. Impenetrable and deadly to settlers. The spots we'd most readily recognise won't even exist. Without human action, rivers will still flow in different curves, and the spots where we built our greatest cities are likely to be under water. Or, at best, an impassable bog.

The European colonials that get a chance to make for greener pastures will probably head for whatever white-majority regions still exist. Australian and New Zealand will see an influx of survivors from the Raj, the Dutch East Indies, and various other colonies around the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Nationality will matter little.

South Africa may like-wise survive, via (essentially) early apartheid and quite a bit of slaughter. The Anglos and the Boers have the best odds if they basically agree to a loose partnership in order to ensure their mutual survival. If they stubbornly turn on each other, they're screwed.

Continental Latin America, Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Philippines all have fairly good perspectives, although they'll need to find trade partners, and pronto. Where applicable, independence just comes early and easy.

The rest of the Caribbean and the Guyanas are totally screwed, and the white colonials will pack up and make for the USA if they know what's good for them. What's left behind will look a lot like Haiti in its worst days.

The USA and Canada, meanwhile, are in the same boat and they know it. I foresee close partnership, possibly moving towards just absorbing Canada into the Union. (There being no more Britain and no more Queen, any objections to joining a Republican country are functionally moot.) The "North American Alliance/Union" will no doubt annex Greenland without even blinking, and will likewise occupty Bermuda and the Bahamas. Possibly also Jamaica, depending on how things play out there. Cuba and Puerto Rico are going to be trade partners, who will jump when Big Brother says 'frog'.

The French in Algeria may form guarded coastal enclaves, besieged by the inhabitants of the hinterland.

The remaining Russians are screwed. In the Caucasus, the native populations will quickly assert independence. East of the Urals, small remnant-states of ethnic Russians may persist, but the bulk of the former empire will just evaporate due to lack of control.

China, with no more European threat to deal with, will eagerly move to take back all of Manchuria from former Russia.

Colonisation of the European Wilderness will be slow-going. The great Ottoman success that some have imagined here is just a pipe-dream, as I have explained by simply outlining the realities of what "virgin Earth" entails.

You raise some good points but I think there will definitely be attempts at resettlement for emotional reasons if nothing else. Plus they will have access to a lot of technology that early human inhabitants didn't have. Not to mention there's a lot more resources available. At the same time many people in this time are a lot less dependent on the sort of services and supplies we take for granted now. Agree its going to be a slow process but definitely going to be some resettlement.

Also there are areas that won't be deep forest. Such as the steppe regions of Ukraine/S Russia and the Don/Volga region. Not sure what parts of Iberia might be like where it may not be wet enough to allow forests to predominate.

I wouldn't rule out an Ottoman revival in SE Europe either once they sort out a new government.

 

[Skallagrim]

You raise some good points but I think there will definitely be attempts at resettlement for emotional reasons if nothing else. Plus they will have access to a lot of technology that early human inhabitants didn't have. Not to mention there's a lot more resources available. At the same time many people in this time are a lot less dependent on the sort of services and supplies we take for granted now. Agree its going to be a slow process but definitely going to be some resettlement.

There is definitely going to be resettlement. We can take a look at the colonisation of Eastern North America and Asian Russia to get a vague impression of how that'll go. Some differences are clear, naturally. On the one hand: no native inhabitants impeding you. On the other hand: no natives who can help you (or be pressed into service), either. The terrain will be considerably more difficult to handle. Tech is better than back in ancient times, but it's still going to slow you down by a century or so.

Lots of early attempts are going to vanish like Roanoke Colony. I'd say it'll be a few hundred years before you get decent settlements anywhere in Europe. Until then, military outposts are going to be the main centres. (Put there to enforce one's claims, obviously.)

Also there are areas that won't be deep forest. Such as the steppe regions of Ukraine/S Russia and the Don/Volga region. Not sure what parts of Iberia might be like where it may not be wet enough to allow forests to predominate.

If some steppe-based power (Central Asian Khaganate?) arises following the collapse of Russia's remnants (or even absorbs those remnants), it'll have a pretty good shot at moving into Europe from the East. The advance bogs down where the steppe ends (literally, because bogs and swamps will be all over the place from there on).

I wouldn't rule out an Ottoman revival in SE Europe either once they sort out a new government.

It's pretty likely, but not because they conquer Europe. It'll be because their biggest, most dangerous enemies are gone.

 

[raharris1973]

Thank you all for engaging with this odd scenario of mine.

@WolfBear - good point on the machinations of the powers at the fringes of Europe

@stevep - Thanks for the summary of Darwinia. I have not read it, but heard enough about it to know that a disappeared Europe was part of the premise. Thanks for filling in more details. So the Americans became all aggressive in Darwinia and crushed the European expat groups in the book? Were the Americans overtaken by some sort of religious extremist group after the event, that helped motivate their aggression?

I never said, nor implied, Brazil wasn't independent. It just might have a natural interest in the orphaned "leftovers" of the Portuguese empire without Portugal, given the common language.

@Skallagrim - Thanks for your excellent and under appreciated point that true virgin earth, untouched and unmodified by humans, is hard and painful to colonize! Settling such land is not a quick process, nor for the faint of heart.

@gral - I think your analysis of Brazil's probable development, internally, and foreign policy-wise, is superb

One thing I think that is happening in the responses though is an underestimation of the Russians, or of the Christian peoples of Russia. Remember, Russia here is not just Siberia and the Far East, but also the more densely populated Caucasus, which will also have the most populous cities, like Baku, Tbilisi, and Yerevan. There were millions of Russian Empire citizens in the Caucasus. Now maybe no more than a million were ethnic Russian. A couple million were probably Shia Muslim Turkic-speaking Azeris, but the remainder were millions of Orthodox Christian Georgians and Armenians, who are not going to roll over for Ottoman rule without a fight. I think all responses forgot these lands and populations were there.

Others wrote as if the Russians grip on Siberia was endangered in the faced of Chinese, Japanese or Central Asian Turks, and maybe Siberian natives, but that really shouldn't be the case. Certainly this is only a fraction of the total Russians of 1878, but the ethnic Russians, despite lacking the biggest metropolises and industries, are going to be better organized than any Siberian natives or any still independent Central Asian Turkic states. And for the first generation at least, despite lacking their European base, the administrative and bureaucratic weaknesses and underdevelopments of China and Japan (and Korea) should prevent any of them from seizing any territory in Asia at Russian expense. I could picture illegal immigration that the Russians don't truly control.

Perhaps if the Russians grow to fear the Chinese and Japanese as their administrative competence and arms technology grows, the Russians try to draw themselves closer to other white Christians they know, like the Americans, perhaps trying to repeat the Alaska sale, this time, selling themselves?

@Skallagrim and @everyone - How do you see the devolution/dissolution of the British Raj in India working out? 1878 is two decades after the mutiny and the deposition of the last Mughal, so the old Mughals and Marathas aren't really around to be restored. In the princely states, there are princes to rally around, but that's not the case in lands without princes. Had the INC already formed by 1878? Could something like it emerge in a newfound vacuum? Is sectarian division inevitable?

 

[stevep]

There is definitely going to be resettlement. We can take a look at the colonisation of Eastern North America and Asian Russia to get a vague impression of how that'll go. Some differences are clear, naturally. On the one hand: no native inhabitants impeding you. On the other hand: no natives who can help you (or be pressed into service), either. The terrain will be considerably more difficult to handle. Tech is better than back in ancient times, but it's still going to slow you down by a century or so.

Lots of early attempts are going to vanish like Roanoke Colony. I'd say it'll be a few hundred years before you get decent settlements anywhere in Europe. Until then, military outposts are going to be the main centres. (Put there to enforce one's claims, obviously.)

I think your being way too pessimistic here. Its going to take decades to really establish sizeable settlements and yes centuries to repopulate the entire affected area but baring serious problems or interference from outside hostile forces you should, especially for Britain and France - with sizeable settlement empires overseas- have some substantial population centres established after a generation or so.

In terms of heavily forested areas yes they would be a lot of work. But then early settlement, as well as in coastal regions, could seek to settle 1st the southern upland areas where tree cover is markedly less. Or I originally come from the The_Fens, which were marshlands. They would need to be drained again but the knowledge and technology is there for that and it gives some very, very rich farmlands.

True other areas, west of the Rhine are going to take a hell of a lot longer simply because there's not going to be enough oeple for a long time. Albeit with population growth rates at the time that could be less time than we think. After all a century before this PoD the US was still fighting for its independence and was largely clustered along the eastern coastline.

If some steppe-based power (Central Asian Khaganate?) arises following the collapse of Russia's remnants (or even absorbs those remnants), it'll have a pretty good shot at moving into Europe from the East. The advance bogs down where the steppe ends (literally, because bogs and swamps will be all over the place from there on).

I suspect that the Russians will still have the technology edge to win out against say Kazakh rivals but its a factor to be considered.

It's pretty likely, but not because they conquer Europe. It'll be because their biggest, most dangerous enemies are gone.

To a large degree but they also large a large unpopulated region immediately adjacent to their demographic and political heartland. I'm not expecting they will reach the Channel but they could well - depending on what happens to their north - end up with the European Ottoman empire at least at their historical territorial height. Mind you if they go north they have the population and resources to probably secure much the Ukrainian steppes prior to anyone further east which would give them even more time to secure a Balkan empire.

Steve

 

[stevep]

Thank you all for engaging with this odd scenario of mine.

@WolfBear - good point on the machinations of the powers at the fringes of Europe

@stevep - Thanks for the summary of Darwinia. I have not read it, but heard enough about it to know that a disappeared Europe was part of the premise. Thanks for filling in more details. So the Americans became all aggressive in Darwinia and crushed the European expat groups in the book? Were the Americans overtaken by some sort of religious extremist group after the event, that helped motivate their aggression?

I never said, nor implied, Brazil wasn't independent. It just might have a natural interest in the orphaned "leftovers" of the Portuguese empire without Portugal, given the common language.

@Skallagrim - Thanks for your excellent and under appreciated point that true virgin earth, untouched and unmodified by humans, is hard and painful to colonize! Settling such land is not a quick process, nor for the faint of heart.

@gral - I think your analysis of Brazil's probable development, internally, and foreign policy-wise, is superb

One thing I think that is happening in the responses though is an underestimation of the Russians, or of the Christian peoples of Russia. Remember, Russia here is not just Siberia and the Far East, but also the more densely populated Caucasus, which will also have the most populous cities, like Baku, Tbilisi, and Yerevan. There were millions of Russian Empire citizens in the Caucasus. Now maybe no more than a million were ethnic Russian. A couple million were probably Shia Muslim Turkic-speaking Azeris, but the remainder were millions of Orthodox Christian Georgians and Armenians, who are not going to roll over for Ottoman rule without a fight. I think all responses forgot these lands and populations were there.

Others wrote as if the Russians grip on Siberia was endangered in the faced of Chinese, Japanese or Central Asian Turks, and maybe Siberian natives, but that really shouldn't be the case. Certainly this is only a fraction of the total Russians of 1878, but the ethnic Russians, despite lacking the biggest metropolises and industries, are going to be better organized than any Siberian natives or any still independent Central Asian Turkic states. And for the first generation at least, despite lacking their European base, the administrative and bureaucratic weaknesses and underdevelopments of China and Japan (and Korea) should prevent any of them from seizing any territory in Asia at Russian expense. I could picture illegal immigration that the Russians don't truly control.

Perhaps if the Russians grow to fear the Chinese and Japanese as their administrative competence and arms technology grows, the Russians try to draw themselves closer to other white Christians they know, like the Americans, perhaps trying to repeat the Alaska sale, this time, selling themselves?

@Skallagrim and @everyone - How do you see the devolution/dissolution of the British Raj in India working out? 1878 is two decades after the mutiny and the deposition of the last Mughal, so the old Mughals and Marathas aren't really around to be restored. In the princely states, there are princes to rally around, but that's not the case in lands without princes. Had the INC already formed by 1878? Could something like it emerge in a newfound vacuum? Is sectarian division inevitable?

raharris1973

With Darwinia - which is set in 1912 the US isn't initially that aggressive but about 10-20 years into the TL - a while since I read the book, it was from a library - suddenly for no clear reason attacks and occupies the settlements that various expat communities have established. By the end of the book they pretty much control all the settled areas of at least western and central Europe. - can't remember if the effect extended into N Africa or the ME. Its significantly more socially conservative with a lot of Americans claims this is Gods vengeance for Darwin's ideas of evolution and IIRC Darwinia is the term they used for the affected area of the world.

It isn't a virgin Earth effect as instead its replaced by an alien and often venomous environment which is having to be pretty much stamped out totally so that the native plants and animals can be resettled. This is actually related to what's going on which is not what it seems. Actually its all a virtual reality recreation of Earth from 1912 which has gotten infected by alien lifeforms - hence the changing of the affected areas.

Sorry about the mix-up about Brazil I misread your initial post.

In terms of India I'm not sure what will happen. Its likely the Raj will end simply because many of the Brits there will either thing it unsustainable or simply want to return 'home' to help rebuild. India wasn't a settlement colony so none of the Brits were intended to stay there permanently - other than those who died early of course. Its likely that some would seek to maintain the empire, simply because they took it for granted or on the higher ranks were making a good living out of it.

At the same time there are a lot of the locals who benefit from the empire so its not impossible it might survive for a time but ultimately I would see if falling. What replaces it I wouldn't know. You could see possibly some external dynasty formed or some attempt at a republican government or one of the princely states coming out on top. Or there could be a period from prolonged period of division. With the European powers removed and the Ottomans and Chinese in poor condition plus the US being a doubtful alternative there isn't a large range of options for external powers to intervene.

One interesting possibility is if there are attempts to settle Italy by Muslims from N Africa would that prompt a reaction from assorted Catholic groups/populations to protect their holy city?

 

[gral]

One interesting possibility is if there are attempts to settle Italy by Muslims from N Africa would that prompt a reaction from assorted Catholic groups/populations to protect their holy city?

Was writing something to tangentially touch this when you posted. After such an event, religiosity is bound to explode, both because of the 'Oh shit!' effect and the fact that such an event simply can't be explained by science. How it would affect the different religions(and whether it would launch the basis for new ones) is another(very important) question.

To answer your question, though, I don't think there would be a big reaction from Catholics(there would be some outrage, though), because the city of Rome is no more, so there isn't anything to protect(at least at the beginning; there would be some attempt to resettle Italy later, using Rome as an excuse).

Also, the Catholic Church in this timeline has lost most of its institutions and all of its higher hierarchy, being reduced to essentially Latin America and the Philippines. A new Catholic Church would rise, with its center either being in Mexico or in Brazil; Mexico, being more populous at the time, would be my bet. Whichever country becomes the seat of the Catholic Church will also deal with political problems associated with that - in Mexico, there was a strong anti-clerical bent on the part of the liberals; in Brazil, the Church was subordinated to(and had its expenses paid by) the Emperor(who was a Freemason, something that had already caused some trouble in the 1870s).

 

[stevep]

Was writing something to tangentially touch this when you posted. After such an event, religiosity is bound to explode, both because of the 'Oh shit!' effect and the fact that such an event simply can't be explained by science. How it would affect the different religions(and whether it would launch the basis for new ones) is another(very important) question.

To answer your question, though, I don't think there would be a big reaction from Catholics(there would be some outrage, though), because the city of Rome is no more, so there isn't anything to protect(at least at the beginning; there would be some attempt to resettle Italy later, using Rome as an excuse).

Also, the Catholic Church in this timeline has lost most of its institutions and all of its higher hierarchy, being reduced to essentially Latin America and the Philippines. A new Catholic Church would rise, with its center either being in Mexico or in Brazil; Mexico, being more populous at the time, would be my bet. Whichever country becomes the seat of the Catholic Church will also deal with political problems associated with that - in Mexico, there was a strong anti-clerical bent on the part of the liberals; in Brazil, the Church was subordinated to(and had its expenses paid by) the Emperor(who was a Freemason, something that had already caused some trouble in the 1870s).

Good point. We tend to overlook the WTF impact from something like this.

 

[Chiron]

I would expect the US and Ottoman Empire to launch a renewed competition over Europe in such a scenario. Russia might try joining in on the fun but won't have the necessary demographic heft for this due to most of its population disappearing. Though China might try to resettle the frontier issue with Russia in its favor in such a scenario since Russia will no longer have its vast European manpower reserves to rely upon in any future Russo-Chinese War.

Fun times!

Ottoman Empire just got decapitated, so it is neo-Mamluk Egypt warring against Qajar Persia over the carcass.

French Rule in Algeria collapses, not enough people or the French metropole to flood a 100,000 strong force to Algeria to deal with matters that get out of hand.

China starts eating Russian Far East causing Japan to jump in.

Massive warfare across the world for the next 60 years till a new political order arises.

 

[WolfBear]

Ottoman Empire just got decapitated, so it is neo-Mamluk Egypt warring against Qajar Persia over the carcass.

French Rule in Algeria collapses, not enough people or the French metropole to flood a 100,000 strong force to Algeria to deal with matters that get out of hand.

China starts eating Russian Far East causing Japan to jump in.

Massive warfare across the world for the next 60 years till a new political order arises.

Good thing that the French are kicked out of Algeria, at least. Though what happens to the Algerian Jews--they've just been granted French citizenship en masse several years ago, but now France no longer exists and presumably Algerian Muslims are pissed off at them for previously having a better status (under French rule) than they themselves had. Could we see a lot of Algerian Jews immigrate to the US in this scenario? Or at least to other Muslim countries?

Japan should defeat China in a competition over the Russian Far East, if not sooner, then later--assuming that Japan is actually interested, of course.

The US could eventually help China industrialize just like it can help Japan. Both of those countries certainly have the necessary human capital for this. Ditto for Korea and Vietnam.

 

[Chiron]

Good thing that the French are kicked out of Algeria, at least. Though what happens to the Algerian Jews--they've just been granted French citizenship en masse several years ago, but now France no longer exists and presumably Algerian Muslims are pissed off at them for previously having a better status (under French rule) than they themselves had. Could we see a lot of Algerian Jews immigrate to the US in this scenario? Or at least to other Muslim countries?

Japan should defeat China in a competition over the Russian Far East, if not sooner, then later--assuming that Japan is actually interested, of course.

The US could eventually help China industrialize just like it can help Japan. Both of those countries certainly have the necessary human capital for this. Ditto for Korea and Vietnam.

Muhammad III as-Sadiq no longer owing any debt to anyone will likely be first to the French enclaves and his deal will be simple, surrender, pay Jizya or convert, or I stand aside and let the mob loose.

What follows afterwards is either the Morocco Sultanate moves up to place a claim or Egypt comes to place a claim. Meanwhile Muslim Adventurers and non-Muslim Adventurers will move on Europe. Most will be free booters, some backed by various lords. Nomadic tribes will do better than more sedentary settlers at first till the sedentary folks get enough infrastructure in place.

The real contest is whether Khedivate of Egypt or the Qajars can make a decisive blow for dominance or wind up indecisively battering each other and collapsing internally to other dynasties.

India will be a mess for decades unless someone can win a few decisive battles and bring peace. Europeans will either leave or intermarry into the Indian gene pool.

 

[WolfBear]

Muhammad III as-Sadiq no longer owing any debt to anyone will likely be first to the French enclaves and his deal will be simple, surrender, pay Jizya or convert, or I stand aside and let the mob loose.

What follows afterwards is either the Morocco Sultanate moves up to place a claim or Egypt comes to place a claim. Meanwhile Muslim Adventurers and non-Muslim Adventurers will move on Europe. Most will be free booters, some backed by various lords. Nomadic tribes will do better than more sedentary settlers at first till the sedentary folks get enough infrastructure in place.

The real contest is whether Khedivate of Egypt or the Qajars can make a decisive blow for dominance or wind up indecisively battering each other and collapsing internally to other dynasties.

India will be a mess for decades unless someone can win a few decisive battles and bring peace. Europeans will either leave or intermarry into the Indian gene pool.

I wonder if the US might become interested in a colonization of India: Not necessarily a permanent one, but merely a temporary one to help India better guide its way towards eventual independence.

 

[Chiron]

I wonder if the US might become interested in a colonization of India: Not necessarily a permanent one, but merely a temporary one to help India better guide its way towards eventual independence.

US at this time isn't touching India with a 10 foot pole. They will gladly sweep up the Western Indies and Pacific Islands. But India, they simply stand back and let the place sort itself out.

 

[WolfBear]

US at this time isn't touching India with a 10 foot pole. They will gladly sweep up the Western Indies and Pacific Islands. But India, they simply stand back and let the place sort itself out.

What about Japan, then?

 

[Chiron]

What about Japan, then?

Japan will hit Korea, China, Taiwan, and Kamchatka first before they even think of going towards India.