What if Alexander III of Russia died 7 years earlier?

[raharris1973]

What if Tsar Alexander III of Russia died 7 years earlier in 1889, of some sort of sudden health problem or accident, what would have been the consequences of an early Nicky II?

The new Tsar Nicholas would be very young, his early 20s. I wonder if the other youngish monarch, Wilhelm II, would have taken Nicky under his wing? Willy felt he had the most in common with Nicky and the two corresponded In OTL.

considering this is before the Franco-Russian dual alliance, could the relationship lead to Wilhelm not taking his first OTL signature foreign policy move, abandoning the reinsurance treaty with Russia, but instead extending it?

 

[Buba]

could the relationship lead to Wilhelm not taking his first OTL signature foreign policy move, abandoning the reinsurance treaty with Russia, but instead extending it?

The death of the Reinsurance Treaty was to due to causes beyond the monarch(s)'s personalities.

POD is baaad for Russia.
Not that Alexandre was some sort of exceptionaly good monarch, but Nichalas was very sub par ...

 

[WolfBear]

What if Tsar Alexander III of Russia died 7 years earlier in 1889, of some sort of sudden health problem or accident, what would have been the consequences of an early Nicky II?

The new Tsar Nicholas would be very young, his early 20s. I wonder if the other youngish monarch, Wilhelm II, would have taken Nicky under his wing? Willy felt he had the most in common with Nicky and the two corresponded In OTL.

considering this is before the Franco-Russian dual alliance, could the relationship lead to Wilhelm not taking his first OTL signature foreign policy move, abandoning the reinsurance treaty with Russia, but instead extending it?

7 years earlier would be 1887, not 1889. He died in 1894.

 

[raharris1973]

The death of the Reinsurance Treaty was to due to causes beyond the monarch(s)'s personalities.

Wait a minute. I could see how it may have nothing to do with the Tsar's personality on the Russian side.

But, considering Bismarck supported the reinsurance treaty, and Wilhelm decided to support the views of other ministers like Holstein, to oppose reinsurance, and fired Bismarck, doesn't the Kaiser's personality and whims have something to do with it on the German side?

 

[WolfBear]

doesn't the Kaiser's personality and whims have something to do with it on the German side?

Yes, it certainly does.

 

[WolfBear]

One thing worth keeping in mind is that if Nicky is the Tsar since 1887, then there won't be an Otsu incident in 1891:

Ōtsu incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I wonder if the lack of such an incident would make Nicky more favorably disposed towards the Japanese than he was in real life.

 

[Buba]

doesn't the Kaiser's personality and whims have something to do with it on the German side?

It did play a part, of course - but it was not out of the blue, not out of leftfield, not outlandish, as quite a few top German politicians were of the "Reinsurance Treaty = Bad Idea" mindset.
So, Wilhelm simply was halping 😊