raharris1973
Well-known member
1. What if Italy widened the scope of its assault on the Ottomans? In OTL, it invaded Libya, the initial territory it claimed, occupied the Dodecanese, and took tactical actions at the straits and Beirut.
what if the Italians invaded on a wider basis?
a prime target I would think would be Albania, coveted by Italy, and undergoing a rebellion during the war from Jan to august 1912.
if the Italians invade Albania, can the Ottomans throw them back?
can the Italians come to an arrangement with Albanian rebels?
how would the Austrians, Serbs, and Greeks, who have their own ambitions towards the area, react to Italy doing this?
what about in other area- could the Italians invade Yemen from their colony of Eritrea in the other side of the Red Sea?
what about other exposed ottoman territories on the Arabian peninsula, like al-hasa province?
2. going the other direction, what if Italy accepts the ottoman acceptance of the Austrian mediated deal at the beginning that ceded de facto control and occupation over Libya to Italy while leaving the territory formally Ottoman (like Britain’s arrangement in Egypt), averting war.
I think that saves Italy a lot of money, lives and energy.
it doesn’t expose ottoman combat weakness, so the Balkan league may be less likely to attack and lead to the 1st and 2nd balkan wars, and their contributions to pre WWI tensions.
on the other hand, might the Ottomans yielding Libya without a fight encourage Balkan league aggression for different reasons?
WWI as we know it in 1914 is likely butterflied away, but we can’t rule it out. If it happens, maybe the Italians or Ottomans could enter conflict earlier as fresher, stronger, less exhausted combatants, on either side.
3. What if, after seeing the war last several months longer than expected, the Russians get antsy about interrupted straits traffic, and want to convince the Turks to quit early while claiming a pound of flesh for themselves?
the ideal operation for the Russians would be to seize the straits for themselves, but that would be beyond their amphibious and logistic capabilities at that time in 1911 and 1912.
so, the Russians will have to be content with mounting a spring 1912 offensive across their common border in the Caucasus to seize the six “Armenian vilayets” of eastern Anatolia, plus Trebizond to gain a chokehold on the Turkish heartland and force the Ottomans to sue for peace forthwith.
shouldnt the 1911 Russians be able to handle the 1911 ottomans in eastern Anatolia? Would other greater or lesser powers react, possibly against Russia’s move?
what if the Italians invaded on a wider basis?
a prime target I would think would be Albania, coveted by Italy, and undergoing a rebellion during the war from Jan to august 1912.
if the Italians invade Albania, can the Ottomans throw them back?
can the Italians come to an arrangement with Albanian rebels?
how would the Austrians, Serbs, and Greeks, who have their own ambitions towards the area, react to Italy doing this?
what about in other area- could the Italians invade Yemen from their colony of Eritrea in the other side of the Red Sea?
what about other exposed ottoman territories on the Arabian peninsula, like al-hasa province?
2. going the other direction, what if Italy accepts the ottoman acceptance of the Austrian mediated deal at the beginning that ceded de facto control and occupation over Libya to Italy while leaving the territory formally Ottoman (like Britain’s arrangement in Egypt), averting war.
I think that saves Italy a lot of money, lives and energy.
it doesn’t expose ottoman combat weakness, so the Balkan league may be less likely to attack and lead to the 1st and 2nd balkan wars, and their contributions to pre WWI tensions.
on the other hand, might the Ottomans yielding Libya without a fight encourage Balkan league aggression for different reasons?
WWI as we know it in 1914 is likely butterflied away, but we can’t rule it out. If it happens, maybe the Italians or Ottomans could enter conflict earlier as fresher, stronger, less exhausted combatants, on either side.
3. What if, after seeing the war last several months longer than expected, the Russians get antsy about interrupted straits traffic, and want to convince the Turks to quit early while claiming a pound of flesh for themselves?
the ideal operation for the Russians would be to seize the straits for themselves, but that would be beyond their amphibious and logistic capabilities at that time in 1911 and 1912.
so, the Russians will have to be content with mounting a spring 1912 offensive across their common border in the Caucasus to seize the six “Armenian vilayets” of eastern Anatolia, plus Trebizond to gain a chokehold on the Turkish heartland and force the Ottomans to sue for peace forthwith.
shouldnt the 1911 Russians be able to handle the 1911 ottomans in eastern Anatolia? Would other greater or lesser powers react, possibly against Russia’s move?