What if’s about the Italian-ottoman war

[raharris1973]

1. What if Italy widened the scope of its assault on the Ottomans? In OTL, it invaded Libya, the initial territory it claimed, occupied the Dodecanese, and took tactical actions at the straits and Beirut.

what if the Italians invaded on a wider basis?

a prime target I would think would be Albania, coveted by Italy, and undergoing a rebellion during the war from Jan to august 1912.

if the Italians invade Albania, can the Ottomans throw them back?

can the Italians come to an arrangement with Albanian rebels?

how would the Austrians, Serbs, and Greeks, who have their own ambitions towards the area, react to Italy doing this?

what about in other area- could the Italians invade Yemen from their colony of Eritrea in the other side of the Red Sea?

what about other exposed ottoman territories on the Arabian peninsula, like al-hasa province?

2. going the other direction, what if Italy accepts the ottoman acceptance of the Austrian mediated deal at the beginning that ceded de facto control and occupation over Libya to Italy while leaving the territory formally Ottoman (like Britain’s arrangement in Egypt), averting war.

I think that saves Italy a lot of money, lives and energy.

it doesn’t expose ottoman combat weakness, so the Balkan league may be less likely to attack and lead to the 1st and 2nd balkan wars, and their contributions to pre WWI tensions.

on the other hand, might the Ottomans yielding Libya without a fight encourage Balkan league aggression for different reasons?

WWI as we know it in 1914 is likely butterflied away, but we can’t rule it out. If it happens, maybe the Italians or Ottomans could enter conflict earlier as fresher, stronger, less exhausted combatants, on either side.

3. What if, after seeing the war last several months longer than expected, the Russians get antsy about interrupted straits traffic, and want to convince the Turks to quit early while claiming a pound of flesh for themselves?

the ideal operation for the Russians would be to seize the straits for themselves, but that would be beyond their amphibious and logistic capabilities at that time in 1911 and 1912.

so, the Russians will have to be content with mounting a spring 1912 offensive across their common border in the Caucasus to seize the six “Armenian vilayets” of eastern Anatolia, plus Trebizond to gain a chokehold on the Turkish heartland and force the Ottomans to sue for peace forthwith.

shouldnt the 1911 Russians be able to handle the 1911 ottomans in eastern Anatolia? Would other greater or lesser powers react, possibly against Russia’s move?

 

[PsihoKekec]

if the Italians invade Albania, can the Ottomans throw them back?

Most likely not, this being European part of Ottoman empire, they could bring more troops and make it much harder for Italians to win, with simultaneous campaign in Libya it would greatly strain Italian resources. With ottomans basically pinned down, Balkan league gets formed on the fly or every Balkan state invades Ottomans on their own.

can the Italians come to an arrangement with Albanian rebels?

Short term perhaps, but in the long term they will turn on them to make Albania fully Italian.

how would the Austrians, Serbs, and Greeks, who have their own ambitions towards the area, react to Italy doing this?

Serbia wanted Skadar as their exit to the sea, while AH sees Italian control of Vlore as attempt to bottle them up in Adriatic. I reckon it wouldn't be enough for detente between two countries, but with Black Hand imbeciles splitting attention between Italy and AH, they might not assassinate FF. Or they might, because they were idiots.

what about in other area- could the Italians invade Yemen from their colony of Eritrea in the other side of the Red Sea?

Too much for their logistics, they might try it anyway, but it would most likely turn into a mess.

it doesn’t expose ottoman combat weakness, so the Balkan league may be less likely to attack and lead to the 1st and 2nd balkan wars, and their contributions to pre WWI tensions.

Yielding Libya to Italy in everything but name is still admission of weakness, so Balkan league will still be formed and attack the Ottomans, but perhaps on different timetable.

shouldnt the 1911 Russians be able to handle the 1911 ottomans in eastern Anatolia? Would other greater or lesser powers react, possibly against Russia’s move?

Russians should be able to bash Ottomans but at a greater cost as Ottomans would be on the defense and with fewer distractions. It would also greatly strain Entente as the British would really hate if the Russians started closing on the straits.

 

[stevep]

Apart from logistical issues an Italian attempt to gain parts of Yemen, as well as probably causing massive unrest in the Muslim world as getting too close to the holy cities is likely to cause concern in London as it would give Italy positions on both sides of the straits, which would threaten the route to India and further east. True Italy isn't really seen as a serious power by many at this, especially after its defeat in 1896 by Ethiopia but it will cause concern.

If there's no Balkan Wars and especially if also the was with Libya was ended quickly with the suggested compromise then Ottoman military weaknesses wouldn't be shown up so the next time their in a big war they could really suffer. If the conflict does bring a slightly earlier Balkan war and especially accompanying a Russian conflict then there would be reform afterwards but the empire could be significantly smaller. Again if this prevented the falling out between Bulgaria and Serbia/Russia then the entire position in the Balkans is again drastically changed.