Weird ASB scenario- Turkey 1935 ISOTs to world of 1905

[raharris1973]

What if the Republic of Turkey of August 1935, after Ataturk have had a good 15 years working their project of republicanization, secularization, and Turkish national homogenization, is suddenly ISOT back 30 years in time to August 1905?

The Republic of Turkey is suddenly the legal inheritor of Abdulhamid's Ottoman Empire, extending from Libya to Iraq and Bahrain, and Albania to Yemen. Local leaders are looking to the Sultan/Caliph for guidance, and find Ataturk, an old and sick Republican President dictator.

Does Turkey revise its ideology yet again to fuse the Republic with the old empire? How? A cosmopolitan Ottoman Republican identity? A modernist Islamic identity?

Or do the Republic's leaders disclaim responsibility for the downtime empire,

A) treating it with complete indifference and neglect, while local power holders do what they will and great powers intervene as they will?

B) literally treat the downtime non-Turkish empire as 'found property' to be literally auctioned off to the highest foreign bidders, so most likely, British, French, Germans, Italians, Zionists, in exchange for hard currency, weapons, debt settlements. Very, very cynical, by possibly realpolitik.

C) Devolve power over the southern Arab provinces and Libya peacefully to ideologically parallel Arab officers' secret societies like Al-Fatat or Istiqlal, in exchange for a foreign policy alliance. Try some other solution with the excess European territories.

D) in combination with C or B above, retain the basic character of the 1935 Turkish Republic while expanding its borders onto some, but not all, downtime lands including: Mosul-Kirkuk in Iraq, Alexandretta-Antioch in Syria, and possibly the whole Aleppo region, Rumelia at least as far as west Thrace and Salonica, if not Macedonia and Albania also.

Also, the Republic would be controlling Kars-Ardahan in the Caucasus, which is legally Tsarist Russian in 1905. Can the Turks make their own claim and rule stick over the long term? In the short-term, with the R-J war defeat, and internal revolution, Russia is not in a great position to fight for Kars-Ardahan, but with a few years recovery time, a revenge/reoccupation campaign could be quite dangerous to Turkey in any form it takes.

As Ataturk is going to be dead by 1938 I think, Ismet Inonu is going to be the leading Turkish figure holding the bag. But Ataturk should get a chance to voice his thoughts and preferences before he dies.

 

[ATP]

What if the Republic of Turkey of August 1935, after Ataturk have had a good 15 years working their project of republicanization, secularization, and Turkish national homogenization, is suddenly ISOT back 30 years in time to August 1905?

The Republic of Turkey is suddenly the legal inheritor of Abdulhamid's Ottoman Empire, extending from Libya to Iraq and Bahrain, and Albania to Yemen. Local leaders are looking to the Sultan/Caliph for guidance, and find Ataturk, an old and sick Republican President dictator.

Does Turkey revise its ideology yet again to fuse the Republic with the old empire? How? A cosmopolitan Ottoman Republican identity? A modernist Islamic identity?

Or do the Republic's leaders disclaim responsibility for the downtime empire,

A) treating it with complete indifference and neglect, while local power holders do what they will and great powers intervene as they will?

B) literally treat the downtime non-Turkish empire as 'found property' to be literally auctioned off to the highest foreign bidders, so most likely, British, French, Germans, Italians, Zionists, in exchange for hard currency, weapons, debt settlements. Very, very cynical, by possibly realpolitik.

C) Devolve power over the southern Arab provinces and Libya peacefully to ideologically parallel Arab officers' secret societies like Al-Fatat or Istiqlal, in exchange for a foreign policy alliance. Try some other solution with the excess European territories.

D) in combination with C or B above, retain the basic character of the 1935 Turkish Republic while expanding its borders onto some, but not all, downtime lands including: Mosul-Kirkuk in Iraq, Alexandretta-Antioch in Syria, and possibly the whole Aleppo region, Rumelia at least as far as west Thrace and Salonica, if not Macedonia and Albania also.

Also, the Republic would be controlling Kars-Ardahan in the Caucasus, which is legally Tsarist Russian in 1905. Can the Turks make their own claim and rule stick over the long term? In the short-term, with the R-J war defeat, and internal revolution, Russia is not in a great position to fight for Kars-Ardahan, but with a few years recovery time, a revenge/reoccupation campaign could be quite dangerous to Turkey in any form it takes.

As Ataturk is going to be dead by 1938 I think, Ismet Inonu is going to be the leading Turkish figure holding the bag. But Ataturk should get a chance to voice his thoughts and preferences before he dies.

Turkish army was obsolate,and they were unable to produce anytching for themselves,except maybe rifles and ammo.
So,no great cumberstomp.

Most prized property would be future knowledge - for example,who murdered tsar,or take power in germany.Polish and czech leaders,too,they all could get accidents here.

 

[raharris1973]

Turkish army was obsolate,and they were unable to produce anytching for themselves,except maybe rifles and ammo.
So,no great cumberstomp.

Most prized property would be future knowledge - for example,who murdered tsar,or take power in germany.Polish and czech leaders,too,they all could get accidents here.

Who said anything about a curb stomp? But what does Turkey want for the property and information it has? And what does it want to do with the Ottoman lands that drop right into its hands peacefully?

 

[ATP]

Who said anything about a curb stomp? But what does Turkey want for the property and information it has? And what does it want to do with the Ottoman lands that drop right into its hands peacefully?

That is - they could gave Russia tsar list of his future murderers,and how his generals behaved during WW2.List of polis and ukrainian politicians could be delivered,too.

The same goes for other countries - A-H,Germany,even France and England.They could buy enough goodwill to keep all Ottomans territories they still want,thanks for that info.

 

[raharris1973]

That is - they could gave Russia tsar list of his future murderers,and how his generals behaved during WW2.List of polis and ukrainian politicians could be delivered,too.

The same goes for other countries - A-H,Germany,even France and England.They could buy enough goodwill to keep all Ottomans territories they still want,thanks for that info.

Much of this information will be getting out into the downtime world "for free", in regular libraries, and communicated by diplomats back to their home countries - British, French, German, Austrian, Hungarian, Italian, American diplomats in Ankara and business people and travelers from 1935 will all be giving their home governments a crash course in history. For the Soviet diplomats in Ankara, they will not want to have that 'awkward conversation' with St. Petersburg, so they will avoid it. But probably some White Russian refugees lived in Turkey, and they would pass information to the Tsarist government, and between them and third party informers and just general books available in major languages, the government will know which exiles are the biggest troublemakers and which enforcers, policemen and commanders are the biggest failures.

 

[ATP]

Much of this information will be getting out into the downtime world "for free", in regular libraries, and communicated by diplomats back to their home countries - British, French, German, Austrian, Hungarian, Italian, American diplomats in Ankara and business people and travelers from 1935 will all be giving their home governments a crash course in history. For the Soviet diplomats in Ankara, they will not want to have that 'awkward conversation' with St. Petersburg, so they will avoid it. But probably some White Russian refugees lived in Turkey, and they would pass information to the Tsarist government, and between them and third party informers and just general books available in major languages, the government will know which exiles are the biggest troublemakers and which enforcers, policemen and commanders are the biggest failures.

True,they could not hold such knowledge for long.Pity,i thought that turks here could profit from that.

 

[raharris1973]

How butthurt will Tsarist Russia feel about Kars and Ardahan? And what can Turkey do to scare off or buy off a Russian attack to get the land back?

What will Ottoman officials and Ottoman citizens, both Arab Muslims, Christian Arabs, Turkic and Albanian and Slavic Muslims, and Slavic and Greek Christians and Jews in the downtime Rumelian, Libyan, Fertile Crescent, and Arabian provinces think of this ‘new Turkey’ at the center of their empire? And what will these Ankara secularists want to do with all of them?

 

[ATP]

How butthurt will Tsarist Russia feel about Kars and Ardahan? And what can Turkey do to scare off or buy off a Russian attack to get the land back?

What will Ottoman officials and Ottoman citizens, both Arab Muslims, Christian Arabs, Turkic and Albanian and Slavic Muslims, and Slavic and Greek Christians and Jews in the downtime Rumelian, Libyan, Fertile Crescent, and Arabian provinces think of this ‘new Turkey’ at the center of their empire? And what will these Ankara secularists want to do with all of them?

1.Very. - and,if they could not buy them with list of future traitors,becouse russians get it on their own,they need to gave some nice technology.
Planes,for example.

2.People there would say,that they served sultan,not some strange dudes,and secularists would not want them,too.

 

[raharris1973]

1.Very. - and,if they could not buy them with list of future traitors,becouse russians get it on their own,they need to gave some nice technology.
Planes,for example.

They could try stuff like that, and making the straits rules good for Russian security.

2.People there would say,that they served sultan,not some strange dudes,and secularists would not want them,too.

Who is going to volunteer to be leaders in the provinces with no Sultan around?

In Tripoli/Libya, I think it will be easy, the Skeikhs of the Senussi brotherhoods. Of course the Italians will start volunteering to be leaders right away.

The Dodecanese islands are close enough to the Turkish Republic's coast that the uptime Turkish Republic can garrison those islands, including Rhodes, with their own troops, and patrol using their own navy. And it is close enough to metropolitan sea lanes and major sea lanes for them to be interested, even if the people are mostly the wrong (Greek) ethnicity and wrong (Orthodox) religion.

In the Arab provinces to the south, I think the Turkish Republic of 1935 is going to still want any border regions with pockets of Turks, Turkomans or Kurds. So this will mean they will garrison mixed cities and areas like Hatay/Alexandretta/Antioch, maybe even all of Aleppo Vilayet, and Dahuk/Mosul/Kirkuk, maybe the whole Mosul Vilayet.

But for ruling the areas where there are hardly any Turks, maybe just the garrison commanders/governors in Damascus and Baghdad will volunteer to lead, and the Sharifians/Hashemites of Mecca will volunteer to lead to.

And then there's the European provinces - Is the Turkish Republic government content with its border of 1935, or think it should hold on to some more, or all, of Turkey in Europe from 1912. It has "too many" Christians, but it has the hometowns of Ataturk and a few of the other Turkish leaders, like Salonica. They might think they can merge the half-Muslim Albanians and Muslim Novi Pazaris and Macedonian Turks into their state, and might think western Thrace and the trading city of Salonica are valuable. Or they might think one or more of these properties, maybe all of them, is an overextension, and just eastern Thrace is better, easier, and more compact to defend.

 

[ATP]

They could try stuff like that, and making the straits rules good for Russian security.



Who is going to volunteer to be leaders in the provinces with no Sultan around?

In Tripoli/Libya, I think it will be easy, the Skeikhs of the Senussi brotherhoods. Of course the Italians will start volunteering to be leaders right away.

The Dodecanese islands are close enough to the Turkish Republic's coast that the uptime Turkish Republic can garrison those islands, including Rhodes, with their own troops, and patrol using their own navy. And it is close enough to metropolitan sea lanes and major sea lanes for them to be interested, even if the people are mostly the wrong (Greek) ethnicity and wrong (Orthodox) religion.

In the Arab provinces to the south, I think the Turkish Republic of 1935 is going to still want any border regions with pockets of Turks, Turkomans or Kurds. So this will mean they will garrison mixed cities and areas like Hatay/Alexandretta/Antioch, maybe even all of Aleppo Vilayet, and Dahuk/Mosul/Kirkuk, maybe the whole Mosul Vilayet.

But for ruling the areas where there are hardly any Turks, maybe just the garrison commanders/governors in Damascus and Baghdad will volunteer to lead, and the Sharifians/Hashemites of Mecca will volunteer to lead to.

And then there's the European provinces - Is the Turkish Republic government content with its border of 1935, or think it should hold on to some more, or all, of Turkey in Europe from 1912. It has "too many" Christians, but it has the hometowns of Ataturk and a few of the other Turkish leaders, like Salonica. They might think they can merge the half-Muslim Albanians and Muslim Novi Pazaris and Macedonian Turks into their state, and might think western Thrace and the trading city of Salonica are valuable. Or they might think one or more of these properties, maybe all of them, is an overextension, and just eastern Thrace is better, easier, and more compact to defend.

Probably.

Now,what about 1935 world with 1905 Turkey?

I think,that we would have kind of race between soviets,France,England and balkan states to who could grab more.

Interesting - who would get Constantinopole here,Greek ,Bulgars,or soviet navy?
And,would it mean earlier WW2 ?

If notching change,how much soviets would get thanks to that then OTL after 1945 ?

 

[raharris1973]

Now,what about 1935 world with 1905 Turkey?

I should've known you'd ask

I think,that we would have kind of race between soviets,France,England and balkan states to who could grab more.

Maybe not all racing equally - France and Britain were not all that dynamic or expansive at the time. The Soviets could easily be tempted to restore their 1914 border, but could be worried about getting bogged down or other powers' reactions to any bigger grab. And actually that piece of land would still be 1935 Turkish Republic with the 1935 defenses. Hmm - Turkish civil war between Abdulhamid's core forces and Republic of Turkey's northeast border garrison?

Interesting - who would get Constantinopole here,Greek ,Bulgars,or soviet navy?

I would favor the Greeks of Metaxas, pushing due east with a land and sea advance through Thrace and the Aegean to force the Dardanelles. The Greeks were much better armed at the time than the Bulgarians. The Soviet Navy was only so large and had only so much skill and limited confidence to try such a bold move that could get reactions from the other powers of the world. Moscow would probably just try to reconfirm Abdulhamid's respect for Soviet rights under the Treaty of Montreux.

Potential wildcard player: The Italians and their navy make a grab for the straits and Constantinople?

Earlier WWII? I doubt it.

 

[ATP]

I should've known you'd ask


Maybe not all racing equally - France and Britain were not all that dynamic or expansive at the time. The Soviets could easily be tempted to restore their 1914 border, but could be worried about getting bogged down or other powers' reactions to any bigger grab. And actually that piece of land would still be 1935 Turkish Republic with the 1935 defenses. Hmm - Turkish civil war between Abdulhamid's core forces and Republic of Turkey's northeast border garrison?


I would favor the Greeks of Metaxas, pushing due east with a land and sea advance through Thrace and the Aegean to force the Dardanelles. The Greeks were much better armed at the time than the Bulgarians. The Soviet Navy was only so large and had only so much skill and limited confidence to try such a bold move that could get reactions from the other powers of the world. Moscow would probably just try to reconfirm Abdulhamid's respect for Soviet rights under the Treaty of Montreux.

Potential wildcard player: The Italians and their navy make a grab for the straits and Constantinople?

Earlier WWII? I doubt it.

1.Bwahahaha! i am evul overlord !

2.All true,considering everything here Greece would probably take most territories,including part of Anatolia - in 1905 many greeks still lived there.

3.Mussolini could do so,they wanted part of Anatolia after WW1,too

4.You are probably right,WW2 started when both Germany and soviets feel ready for that - which in 1935 certainly was not a case yet.
But,if WW2 happened on schedule,who would get Turkey after that? i bet on soviets here,they wonted Turkey after WW2 ,but Truman stopped them in 1946.
If soviets retake those territories from germans in 1944,FDR would say nothing.

He saved Iran,too.