U.s.s.r never exist
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Circle of Willis
Well-known member
As in, the February and October Revolutions still happen, but the latter (which is what I think most people, certainly myself included, think when we hear 'Russian Revolution') fails? IMO the most likely development is that Russia's weak republican government totters on for a while longer, perhaps buys itself a full decade if it sticks around to see WW1 to the end and makes commensurate territorial gains at the peace treaty. But if the Great Depression still happens - and it probably will, because I can't think of any reason the Soviet Union or lack thereof would affect American stock speculation - this government will be easily toppled in a military coup, after which you'd see said coup's leader (perhaps a longer-lived Lavr Kornilov, or if not him then another conservative general like Anton Denikin) seize power.
If the October Revolution fails/never happens due to the republican gov't bailing on WW1 in the spring or summer of 1917, the above coup would probably arrive much sooner, as the Provisional Government now suffers the stigma of having made a Brest-Litovsk style peace and it can't count on the Entente's help in patching their economy up later. Either way, Alexander Kerensky doesn't strike me as a particularly competent, bold and resourceful leader of the sort that would be needed to stabilize Russian democracy and resuscitate the economy.
Not sure what would happen next. Maybe the conservative junta endures as-is. Maybe they'd restore the Romanovs as their puppet: Nicholas II is too tainted to be given back the throne, but I could imagine Denikin or even Kornilov (despite the anti-monarchic sentiments the latter had developed by 1917) making the pitch to Nicholas' son Alexei (if he's still alive, he's a hemophiliac after all) or another Romanov relative to boost their regime's legitimacy. Or maybe the military dictator won't be able to convince the Russian people and the entire army to obey him, and the country will descend into a period of warlordism.
Also, without the Soviets around as the great Communist boogeyman and supporter of further Communist uprisings in Europe (I'm mainly thinking of the failed Hungarian and German ones) the Nazis might well find it much harder to ascend over the democratic Weimar gov't in Germany. The post-WW1 settlement in Central and Eastern Europe would endure for much longer if that's the case, or perhaps their place might be taken by a revanchist but less genocidally psychotic militarist regime putsching the Weimarites instead. If the latter emerges in the same timeline as a Provisional Gov't that survives by making an alt-Brest-Litovsk treaty with Germany in 1917 (and also gets taken out by a military coup in the '20s), ironically we might end up seeing a Russo-German rapproachment and alliance against the post-war order being upheld by the remaining 2/3 of the Entente and all those newly independent states between Russia & Germany (Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics, etc.)
If the October Revolution fails/never happens due to the republican gov't bailing on WW1 in the spring or summer of 1917, the above coup would probably arrive much sooner, as the Provisional Government now suffers the stigma of having made a Brest-Litovsk style peace and it can't count on the Entente's help in patching their economy up later. Either way, Alexander Kerensky doesn't strike me as a particularly competent, bold and resourceful leader of the sort that would be needed to stabilize Russian democracy and resuscitate the economy.
Not sure what would happen next. Maybe the conservative junta endures as-is. Maybe they'd restore the Romanovs as their puppet: Nicholas II is too tainted to be given back the throne, but I could imagine Denikin or even Kornilov (despite the anti-monarchic sentiments the latter had developed by 1917) making the pitch to Nicholas' son Alexei (if he's still alive, he's a hemophiliac after all) or another Romanov relative to boost their regime's legitimacy. Or maybe the military dictator won't be able to convince the Russian people and the entire army to obey him, and the country will descend into a period of warlordism.
Also, without the Soviets around as the great Communist boogeyman and supporter of further Communist uprisings in Europe (I'm mainly thinking of the failed Hungarian and German ones) the Nazis might well find it much harder to ascend over the democratic Weimar gov't in Germany. The post-WW1 settlement in Central and Eastern Europe would endure for much longer if that's the case, or perhaps their place might be taken by a revanchist but less genocidally psychotic militarist regime putsching the Weimarites instead. If the latter emerges in the same timeline as a Provisional Gov't that survives by making an alt-Brest-Litovsk treaty with Germany in 1917 (and also gets taken out by a military coup in the '20s), ironically we might end up seeing a Russo-German rapproachment and alliance against the post-war order being upheld by the remaining 2/3 of the Entente and all those newly independent states between Russia & Germany (Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics, etc.)
Buba
A total creep
There is nothing ironic here - this is exactly what happened in OTL.
1 - Weimar Republic and the USSR got along very nicely, secret military training grounds etc.;
2 - Stalin-Hitler pact of August '39, the Soviets propping up Germany's economy in its struggle against International Imperialism up to July '41.
As to the friendliness of the Entente towards the new states in Central Europe ...
1 - in OTL Britain was sabotaging them left and right to prevent Germany becoming too weak/France too strong;
2 - France has a love affair with Russia, the lusted for supplier of manpower to crush the Big Bad i.e. Germany. I imagine any sort of Russian Gov't to be given French support as to preserve France's "bully boy". The Soviets did not get such support because reasons too many to list. But had Lenin-Trotsky stayed in the fight then Paris (and London) would have held its nose and pumped money into them. So, no Soviets refusing to play ball with the London-Paris Axis means that Poland (and several other Central European countries simply does not exist.
A lot would depend on the details but, taking possibly the most favourable view, if Lenin's coup failed and the Provisional Government survived both the war and then any unrest by extremes either right or left then things could be a lot better for most/all of the world.
In this case I suspect you would see Poland restored to independence, although likely with a smaller eastern border than OTL. Don't think the PG were that interesting in holding anywhere by force and lacked the military will, especially since that could prompt opposition from the west. You might well see Finland and possibly the Baltics gaining independence or at least a large degree of devolution. Also Russia is likely to be offered and accept the mandate for Armenia, which would also mean that state survives, probably with significantly larger borders than OTL. This could be bad for the Turks as if they try and oppose this it secures Russian opposition, rather than the OTL Soviet support so they could lose their war with Greece. [Doubly so if Alexander doesn't have his fatal incident with that damned monkey!]
More generally this also means that Russia is part of the wider world establishment rather than an isolated pariah. Also without the civil war, which probably screwed over Russia more than WWI its going to be demographically and economically a lot stronger than OTL. Also its likely to get a fair amount of investment from the west while even if it only partially pays its own war debts it would help reduce the dependency of Britain and France on America. This might possibly prevent the depression or make it a largely US affair which it could recover from in a couple of years if it doesn't drag the rest of the world down with it.
It also means that there is a significant check on any revanchist movements by Germany, at least as long as the government in Russia stays somewhat democratic and liberal. As such there is a good chance that Nazi Germany, as well as being less likely to occur is markedly more likely to be strangled in the cradle.
In this case I suspect you would see Poland restored to independence, although likely with a smaller eastern border than OTL. Don't think the PG were that interesting in holding anywhere by force and lacked the military will, especially since that could prompt opposition from the west. You might well see Finland and possibly the Baltics gaining independence or at least a large degree of devolution. Also Russia is likely to be offered and accept the mandate for Armenia, which would also mean that state survives, probably with significantly larger borders than OTL. This could be bad for the Turks as if they try and oppose this it secures Russian opposition, rather than the OTL Soviet support so they could lose their war with Greece. [Doubly so if Alexander doesn't have his fatal incident with that damned monkey!]
More generally this also means that Russia is part of the wider world establishment rather than an isolated pariah. Also without the civil war, which probably screwed over Russia more than WWI its going to be demographically and economically a lot stronger than OTL. Also its likely to get a fair amount of investment from the west while even if it only partially pays its own war debts it would help reduce the dependency of Britain and France on America. This might possibly prevent the depression or make it a largely US affair which it could recover from in a couple of years if it doesn't drag the rest of the world down with it.
It also means that there is a significant check on any revanchist movements by Germany, at least as long as the government in Russia stays somewhat democratic and liberal. As such there is a good chance that Nazi Germany, as well as being less likely to occur is markedly more likely to be strangled in the cradle.
Russian empire with 600 millions of people would be first world economy and first superpower.Why do you thing Wall street send Trocky and his thugs there ? becouse tsar made pogroms ? ,no becouse normal Russia would become competition and eventually replace USA as first power.