Two ASB scenarios related to Japan

[raharris1973]

Scenario # 1 -

In July 1853 Commodore Perry visits Japan with his black ships, showing off his big guns, insisting on his message for opening of trade, search and rescue facilities, coaling, and so on be sent to Emperor and Shogun, then goes to Hong Kong, promising to return within a year (just like OTL)

In early February 1854, Perry begins steaming back toward Japan with even more ships to investigate the Japanese response and add pressure.

However, Alien Space Bats in the night teleport Japan, the home islands, plus the Kuriles, Sakhalin, the Bonin islands, and Ryukyus, are all teleported east to the north central Pacific, northwest of Midway and the Hawaiian islands, south of the Aleutians, and far from the Asian continent.

Perry fails to find Japan where he expects it- "Did they run away? How did they do it?"

In any case, other Yankee clippers encounter Japan before 1854 or 1855 is out, and Perry gets to resume his visit and force Japan is open, even in its new location. Ships of other nations, Britain, France, Russia, and The Netherlands, which wondered where its trading stating of Dejima vanished to, all follow.

So similarly to OTL, Japan has to open up global trade and technology. But Japan's geopolitical and threat environment is quite different being so physically distant from the Asian continent.

Over the very long run, Japan is going to be closer to the United States, and more in its geopolitical shadow, somewhat like Latin American countries (still more like distant South American ones than close Caribbean ones). However, in the 1850s sectional disputes, and the 1860s the Civil War are both keeping the US way too busy for actual colonizing projects in Japan. Longer term Japan lacks the same urgency and easy of intervening in Korea and Taiwan. However, with some rudimentary industrial development, it can certainly still develop some power projection in East Asia and do so as easily as Europeans. I imagine its mid-ocean position would make its Navy become dominant over its Army within a a couple decades of the modernizing process. How do you see Japan developing in the late 19th and 20th century in its new geographical location? Will its new geographical location "keep them out of trouble" or just get them into trouble, just of a different kind?

Scenario # 2 - In this second scenario, in 1540 AD, shortly before the first (Portuguese) westerners made contact with Japan, the Japanese home islands, plus Hokkaido, are all teleported to the north central Pacific, northwest of Midway island.

In this new position, I suspect that Japan should avoid discovery/detection by western sailors for a couple centuries. This is well north of the tropical Manila galleon routes between Spain and the Philippines, and north of Hawaii, which the Spanish also missed and never colonized in the initial age of discovery. It is also sufficiently south of the Aleutians and Alaska that Vitus Bering and Russian sailors should not run into it in early and mid-1700s.

Here's the map:

Based on its new location, I suspect that Japan will remain uncontacted by westerners (Hawaiians may reach it, and vice versa) until the voyages of Captain Cook in the 1770s.

This means Japan's isolation is far longer, and far more thorough, than what it experienced in real-life's "Sakoku" period (1639-1853), without the prior "Nanban" trade period (1543-1614) of open trade with the west and Southeast Asia.

This alternate Japan meets the west for the first time in the 1770s, not 1542. So among other novelties, Captain Cook will not find that the Japanese have "shrimp tempura" on the menu, because that name and cooking style was adopted from the Portuguese. The Japanese will not have the limited "window" to the west the Dutch trading post at Dejima which operated throughout the OTL isolation period and provided a way for 'Dutch learning' or Rangaku to flow into Japan in the form of books, medicine and sample machinery.

The Japanese are also not introduced to firearms by the Portuguese.

Do they invent them on their own between 1543 and the 1770s? It is a fair question. They did not have any prior to western contact, but Japanese society had sophisticated metal-working and regular contact with China, which gunpowder, fireworks, and cannon. There probably were at least gunpowder recipes on the island, if not actual cannon.

Probably more significant for the daily lives of Japanese would be that teleportation to the central Pacific would stop trade with Korea and China and leave Japan more isolated.

Japan may encounter Hawaii and Hawaiians, and trade with them.

When the Japanese meet Captain Cook's British, the latter will have obviously superior technology. However, Japan will not be easy colony-fodder anytime soon. Japan is populous, and far more disease resistant than anyplace else in Oceania. Japan is as far as can be from Britain and Western Europe. And Britain and Western Europe is about to consume itself in the fratricidal French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars for 25 years.

 

[bintananth]

Your first scenario means that the Lighting Brigade doesn't have my great-great-great-grandfather.

Your second scenario means that my niece Melfina doesn't exist because one of her ancestors was a Japanese woman who wound up in Portugal c.1600.

I don't exist in either scenario.

 

[raharris1973]

Your first scenario means that the Lighting Brigade doesn't have my great-great-great-grandfather.

Your second scenario means that my niece Melfina doesn't exist because one of her ancestors was a Japanese woman who wound up in Portugal c.1600.

I don't exist in either scenario.

I would give your post a like, but I won’t because I don’t have anything against you or your family!

 

[Chiron]

1st Scenario: Japan after realizing what went down, seizes Hawaii and any islands immediately up for grabs and starts industrializing quickly. Also expect the Shogunate to immediately begin securing the Royal Family as well.

2nd Scenario: Japan had handguns before the Portuguese arrived, and were already transitioning to gunpowder armies. They also had an extensive trade and pirate fleet. So they already had knowledge of the outside world, but outside of traders and pirates, it wasn't really relevant to the cultural awareness of the Japanese people and the Daimyos delegated that intel gathering to their ministers aside from Chinese and Korean news.

First priority is Daimyos sending out ships to figure out where they are and re-establish contacts. Other than that, the military reforms that were already in progress, continue on, and Hideyoshi will come out on top, conquer Hawaii and then exile Tokugawa there as a governor. Whether that comes back to haunt his son later is his son's concern, not his. Japanese ships make contact very quickly with Spanish Galleons plying their routes and find Australia which is placed high on Hideyoshi's list of things to do before he croaks. Since there is no Korean War, Hawaii was an easy conquest, and neither the Portuguese or Spanish have spare troops and ships to devote to fighting the large armies of disciplined troops the Japanese can field, the Japanese are well positioned to seize large portions of the Pacific. It will also light a fire under them to develop ocean going ships in large numbers.

 

[bintananth]

2nd Scenario: Japan had handguns before the Portuguese arrived, and were already transitioning to gunpowder armies.

The only part of the matchlock muskets a 15 year old Tanegshima Tokitaka bought in 1543 from the Portuguese that his swordsmith, Yaita Kinbei Kiyosada, could not replicate was the bolt sealing the breech.

That required making the threads and grooves match, which he did not know how to do. Just one year later a Portuguese blacksmith explained to the Japanese "here's how you do it" and it was on.

A firearm equipped Japanese Army during the late Warring States period had some of the best firearms in the world ... and they knew how to use them.

There are drill manuals from that period which basically say "here's how to use a matchlock during the middle of the night when it's raining".

The potassium nitrate-charcoal-sulpur mixture that is black gunpowder absorbs moisture from the air like nobody's business and won't ignite when it's too wet.

"Keep it dry" and "Get it wet" are pretty much rules #1 and #2 of handling black gunpowder. Dry when you want it to go "BOOM!". Wet when you don't because that "BOOM!", when contained and directed, has enough oomph to send something into outer space on a sub-orbital trajectory. When it's not contained you've just witnessed a magazine explosion which might flatten a city and include a mushroom cloud visible from miles away if it's big enough.

 

[ATP]

1.No taking over Korea or Taiwan,no over hawaii,too.But,in OTL they allied England to help their navy.Now,they are more dependent on England,and in 1895 prevent american sailors from taking over Havaii./England had there influence,too/
Japan close allied to England and do not interfere with Asia.
After WW1,England keep its Alliance with Japan to counter USA.Much different WW2 then.USA could remain isolationist,soviets probably take over China.

2.They take over Hawaii,but since Hawaii do not knew about Australia or America,nothing change.Contact in 1770 - they quickly modernize,and try take Pacyfic shore of North America.Probably succed.
Not Australia,thought - british would fought them there.
In 19th century ,about 1850,war with USA.Japaneese keep their territory,and probably grab more.USA had no real army,Japan could send 100.000 samurai with modern weapons.
Instead of Cyvil war,rematch about 1865-70.Japan ally with Mexico and England,draw.

After that - nothing change till WW1.War in America,too,with Japan helping allies and USA germans.Draw again./In America/
In Europe - germans still lost.

WW2 - USA join as Hitler ally.This time win,Aryan race rules.With WASPS in America.

 

[Chiron]

1.No taking over Korea or Taiwan,no over hawaii,too.But,in OTL they allied England to help their navy.Now,they are more dependent on England,and in 1895 prevent american sailors from taking over Havaii./England had there influence,too/
Japan close allied to England and do not interfere with Asia.
After WW1,England keep its Alliance with Japan to counter USA.Much different WW2 then.USA could remain isolationist,soviets probably take over China.

Hawaii was unclaimed by any power at this time and neither the US or Britain can really challenge it for a time, so Japan easily takes it and no one does shit about it till its too late. Japan quickly builds up and by necessity gets an Alliance with the US, not Britain as the US is closer and can get more ships to them quicker than Britain can.

2.They take over Hawaii,but since Hawaii do not knew about Australia or America,nothing change.Contact in 1770 - they quickly modernize,and try take Pacyfic shore of North America.Probably succed.
Not Australia,thought - british would fought them there.
In 19th century ,about 1850,war with USA.Japaneese keep their territory,and probably grab more.USA had no real army,Japan could send 100.000 samurai with modern weapons.
Instead of Cyvil war,rematch about 1865-70.Japan ally with Mexico and England,draw.

Europeans are focused mainly in Philippines and India in the mid 1500s, and their control is not very secure and based more on divide and rule than direct control which they don't start gaining direct control till the 1700s when they begin to get decisive technological edges combined with doctrinal changes that allow them to utilize organized violence more effectively.

Japan is well positioned and by necessity forced to seize large swathes of the Pacific to provide defense in depth and replace the disrupted China and Korean Trade. This also means more Islamic Missionaries than Christian Missionaries will be visiting Japan which will be interesting. How the powerbrokers handle it or syncretize it to a Japanese flavor remains to be seen. But the Pacific will become a Japanese Ocean and Australia their premier Colony. Under good leadership and direction, Japan could easily arise as a dominating world power in the mid 1700s and depending on the leadership may check the British co-option and replacement of the Mughals and throw weight behind the Ottomans to arrest their decline and counter-balance Europe, plus throw the Dutch out of Indonesia, and the Portuguese out of the Philippines.

 

[ATP]

Hawaii was unclaimed by any power at this time and neither the US or Britain can really challenge it for a time, so Japan easily takes it and no one does shit about it till its too late. Japan quickly builds up and by necessity gets an Alliance with the US, not Britain as the US is closer and can get more ships to them quicker than Britain can.



Europeans are focused mainly in Philippines and India in the mid 1500s, and their control is not very secure and based more on divide and rule than direct control which they don't start gaining direct control till the 1700s when they begin to get decisive technological edges combined with doctrinal changes that allow them to utilize organized violence more effectively.

Japan is well positioned and by necessity forced to seize large swathes of the Pacific to provide defense in depth and replace the disrupted China and Korean Trade. This also means more Islamic Missionaries than Christian Missionaries will be visiting Japan which will be interesting. How the powerbrokers handle it or syncretize it to a Japanese flavor remains to be seen. But the Pacific will become a Japanese Ocean and Australia their premier Colony. Under good leadership and direction, Japan could easily arise as a dominating world power in the mid 1700s and depending on the leadership may check the British co-option and replacement of the Mughals and throw weight behind the Ottomans to arrest their decline and counter-balance Europe, plus throw the Dutch out of Indonesia, and the Portuguese out of the Philippines.

1.Possible,probably nobody would care about Hawaii taken by Japan in 1853.But - Japan would prefer England to USA precisely becouse USA is closer.

2.Hawaii taken,but Japan still have no good ships.Before they could making them,any bigger invasion is impossible.Contact with Java - sure,they would have them.Problem is - people there do not have good ships,too.They never discovered Australia,after all.

So,maybe they take part of Java,but that would be all.They would have contacts with Portugees later,and dutch,too.They discovered Tasmania,so Japan could do the same about,let say,1650.Colonization - possible,in 1770 Cool would found Japaneese there.

They could not throw portuguese out of Philippines,becouse islands were hold by Spain.Too far from their new position to send invasion forces,too.
And why help Ottomans ? and how could they do so ? no technology for that.

But - they would certainly send merchants to India.

Muslim missionaries - they would not fare better then christians in OTL,even worst.Japaneese formally worshipped emperor,so any religion who deny it,no matter christianity or islam,would not be accepted.

 

[Chiron]

1.Possible,probably nobody would care about Hawaii taken by Japan in 1853.But - Japan would prefer England to USA precisely becouse USA is closer.

Nope, it will be the US, their bases in California make that a necessity.

2.Hawaii taken,but Japan still have no good ships.Before they could making them,any bigger invasion is impossible.Contact with Java - sure,they would have them.Problem is - people there do not have good ships,too.They never discovered Australia,after all.

So,maybe they take part of Java,but that would be all.They would have contacts with Portugees later,and dutch,too.They discovered Tasmania,so Japan could do the same about,let say,1650.Colonization - possible,in 1770 Cool would found Japaneese there.

They could not throw portuguese out of Philippines,becouse islands were hold by Spain.Too far from their new position to send invasion forces,too.
And why help Ottomans ? and how could they do so ? no technology for that.

But - they would certainly send merchants to India.

Muslim missionaries - they would not fare better then christians in OTL,even worst.Japaneese formally worshipped emperor,so any religion who deny it,no matter christianity or islam,would not be accepted.

Japan actually had a substantial Maritime Fleet capable of oceanic travel and extensive trade in the Asiatics. They just never needed a full fledged military fleet due to no near threats or need to sail and conquer outside areas due to their internal civil war.

The ISOT move changes all of that. Lords facing defeat or wanting to expand, or having too many sons or troublesome retainers who they can't kill yet will now all a sudden have easy expansion. So onto ships they go.

Going south they run into the Melanesians, Polynesians, and Melanesians, the latter having trading contacts with Australia and the Polynesians control New Zealand. None of these groups can take on the Japanese who are far closer than the Europeans are and can pour more troops in faster. They would also come in contact with the Portuguese and have massive pressure to improve their seagoing vessels and ensure their power can't be challenged and their home islands can't be threatened. So the Unifiers will seek to bring these Islands under their control and fortify them. They also come into greater contact with Indonesia and India by necessity.

Because of that pressure, the Japanese accept the risks. Sure a European Ship can sink their initial ship designs, but due to numbers, distances, and logistics, the Portuguese Navy is completely irrelevant compared to the troops on the ground it can deploy and that factor fucks them.

 

[stevep]

Chiron

Your assuming that the greater isolation doesn't strength those elements who want isolation and also that Japan goes on a massive expansion programme pretty much unparalleled in the country until the 20thC. If it does then N America is probably a more likely target than places like Java let alone India or Australia. Especially if it has the rapid expansion and technological expansion being suggested.

Note also the ISOT occurs before the initial contact so until they encounter Europeans again their largely stuck with their initial technology. Which might be good enough to clash with a declining Spain in say the mid-18thC but would still cause them problems. Also without some equivalent of the shock that prompted the Meiji Restoration their unlikely to have the changes that prompt it to stay abreast of developments elsewhere.

Assuming they do start developing later, in the mid 19thC they are likely to take Hawaii but probably not too much further as they will find too much competition with the western powers. In fact initial expansion by Japan might prompt an earlier 'Pacific scramble' so to speak.

Alliances could well vary but Britain has a number of advantages for some sort of post-Meiji Japan:
a) Its a monarchy rather than an ardent republican.
b) Its a lot further away and hence not the primary threat that the US would appear to be - unless there's an early clash with Britain somewhere.
c) Britain has a long diplomatic history which means its generally better at see the other sides point of view and hence making deals. The US is notoriously myopic on this.


Of course we're all ignoring that such an ISOT could well prove disastrous for Japan in terms of the loss of trade and other contact along with the resulting climatic impacts. [Which could also have some nasty impacts on the rest of the world as well with disruption of ocean currents, fish/sea mammal migration patterns and the like. Not to mention the impact on AE Asia of Japan's disappearance.] Although being in the middle of the Pacific Ocean would mean that it should be more tectonically stable with less earthquakes and volcanic activity not being on a plate boundary.

One other thing that just came to mind. The last big Cascadian earthquake was I think sometime in the mid/late 18thC. OTL Japan is supposed to have suffered tsunamis as a result. Here since their going to be closer to the source their likely to suffer markedly worse I think.

 

[raharris1973]

Chiron

Your assuming that the greater isolation doesn't strength those elements who want isolation and also that Japan goes on a massive expansion programme pretty much unparalleled in the country until the 20thC. If it does then N America is probably a more likely target than places like Java let alone India or Australia. Especially if it has the rapid expansion and technological expansion being suggested.

Note also the ISOT occurs before the initial contact so until they encounter Europeans again their largely stuck with their initial technology. Which might be good enough to clash with a declining Spain in say the mid-18thC but would still cause them problems. Also without some equivalent of the shock that prompted the Meiji Restoration their unlikely to have the changes that prompt it to stay abreast of developments elsewhere.

Assuming they do start developing later, in the mid 19thC they are likely to take Hawaii but probably not too much further as they will find too much competition with the western powers. In fact initial expansion by Japan might prompt an earlier 'Pacific scramble' so to speak.

Alliances could well vary but Britain has a number of advantages for some sort of post-Meiji Japan:
a) Its a monarchy rather than an ardent republican.
b) Its a lot further away and hence not the primary threat that the US would appear to be - unless there's an early clash with Britain somewhere.
c) Britain has a long diplomatic history which means its generally better at see the other sides point of view and hence making deals. The US is notoriously myopic on this.


Of course we're all ignoring that such an ISOT could well prove disastrous for Japan in terms of the loss of trade and other contact along with the resulting climatic impacts. [Which could also have some nasty impacts on the rest of the world as well with disruption of ocean currents, fish/sea mammal migration patterns and the like. Not to mention the impact on AE Asia of Japan's disappearance.] Although being in the middle of the Pacific Ocean would mean that it should be more tectonically stable with less earthquakes and volcanic activity not being on a plate boundary.

One other thing that just came to mind. The last big Cascadian earthquake was I think sometime in the mid/late 18thC. OTL Japan is supposed to have suffered tsunamis as a result. Here since their going to be closer to the source their likely to suffer markedly worse I think.

@stevep: It would be good if you could neatly specify which of Chiron's comments on which scenario you are discussing at each point - the 1500s scenario or the 1800s scenario.

On damage to Japan from isolation. - Trade loss would be a thing in the early scenario (not the late), but hardly likely to be a disaster. Pre-1500s Japan certainly had trade with the mainland, but it was intermittent and frequently interrupted. It removes one source of cultural, technological, commercial enrichment, but doesn't remove a pillar civilizational survival. The most potentially dangerous climactic changes could be from disruptions to ocean currents leading to disrupted seasonal weather and different maritime food resources. I guess we can't absolutely rule out disaster if the changes drastically reduce total rainfall or make rain patterns unsuitable for mass cereal agriculture. I think that's pretty unlikely though. Somewhat more likely would be a chaotic year or two and short-term famine where the seasons are off and people need to get used to a new planting rhythm. One factor mitigating change in overall temperature and weather is the latitude is being kept exactly the same. Unless somehow a major, and long-lasting seafood deadzone is created, I don't see how alterations in maritime life would be more than a short-term problem in terms of fish and whale harvests. Fishermen will adapt.

 

[Chiron]

@stevep: It would be good if you could neatly specify which of Chiron's comments on which scenario you are discussing at each point - the 1500s scenario or the 1800s scenario.

This because he conflated several scenarios together and made a post that is not answerable.

Crop disruption and hunger is unlikely, even if so, Japan has reserves and access to fish and whales. And their fleets will quickly come in contact with the Pacific Islander Cultures. Tsunamis are something the Japanese know of and have preparations for and their power centers are not on the oceanic coasts but in sheltered areas.

 

[stevep]

This because he conflated several scenarios together and made a post that is not answerable.

Crop disruption and hunger is unlikely, even if so, Japan has reserves and access to fish and whales. And their fleets will quickly come in contact with the Pacific Islander Cultures. Tsunamis are something the Japanese know of and have preparations for and their power centers are not on the oceanic coasts but in sheltered areas.

No actually I replied to the points in your previous post.

Crop disruption is fairly likely as the climate will be affected, most probably in terms of rainfall patterns. Just because its the same latitude doesn't mean the weather conditions are the same. Japan will have reserves in the latter scenario but in the former, which you were primarily referring to if I read it rightly could be another issues. Also likely to be more storms as their in mid-ocean which could have effects especially on the west coast which was more protected before.

One point I didn't think of at the time is that Japan is on the Asian continental shelf, with shallow waters on its western coast especially. Such areas tend to be much more fertile for fishing than the deep ocean - other than where there are up-wells from the deep bringing minerals to the surface. As such fishing is very likely to be less successful.

In terms of tsunamis Japan, especially in 1540, can endure them and in some cases protect against by avoided coastal areas. However my point was that the Cascadia event will hit them a lot more than OTL when it occurs simply because they will be a closer to the full force of the impact.

 

[stevep]

@stevep: It would be good if you could neatly specify which of Chiron's comments on which scenario you are discussing at each point - the 1500s scenario or the 1800s scenario.

On damage to Japan from isolation. - Trade loss would be a thing in the early scenario (not the late), but hardly likely to be a disaster. Pre-1500s Japan certainly had trade with the mainland, but it was intermittent and frequently interrupted. It removes one source of cultural, technological, commercial enrichment, but doesn't remove a pillar civilizational survival. The most potentially dangerous climactic changes could be from disruptions to ocean currents leading to disrupted seasonal weather and different maritime food resources. I guess we can't absolutely rule out disaster if the changes drastically reduce total rainfall or make rain patterns unsuitable for mass cereal agriculture. I think that's pretty unlikely though. Somewhat more likely would be a chaotic year or two and short-term famine where the seasons are off and people need to get used to a new planting rhythm. One factor mitigating change in overall temperature and weather is the latitude is being kept exactly the same. Unless somehow a major, and long-lasting seafood deadzone is created, I don't see how alterations in maritime life would be more than a short-term problem in terms of fish and whale harvests. Fishermen will adapt.

raharris1973

Sorry, as I said in my reply to Chiron I was replying to his previous post. Didn't make clear which time period but most of the early comments and those about the huge Cascadia tsunamis were relating to the 1540 option. Things like the relations with the US and other powers are for the 1853 one as the US could well not exist in the 1540 TL. Will try and be clearer in future.

Just because the latitude is the same doesn't mean that the climate will be similar. The most well know example is the comparison between western Europe and NE N America with London being on the same latitude as Labrador. I suspect that the climate will be wetter simply because the country is now deep in the Pacific and hence could be reaching storms from all direction. Water tends to moderate the climate however so it would probably be more moderate.

As I said to Chiron there is a possibility, unless there is a new continental slope established around Japan that fisheries will be somewhat poorer. Also with different waters fishermen would have to find where the fisheries were and given their probably more exposed to storms this could be more hazardous. Although as you say the fishermen will have to adjust.

The shock will be less damaging in material and economic terms in the 1853 scenario as contact with the rest of the world will be established fairly quickly. Could be a lot more dramatic socially, possibly even more especially for the western world given the belief in science and progress when something 'unnatural' like this happens.

In the 1450 scenario, as you say this is prior to the initial Portuguese contact so Japan is a lot less developed and is now a very long way from other land, apart from possibly Hawaii to the south and the barren Aleutians to the north. If they find the latter then it could lead them to N America or possibly a bit later clashes with the Russians as they spread that way. To the south I'm not sure if the Hawaiian Is had lost contact with the other Polynesians but it could be of limited use to Japan for expanding past them.

As such I would expect that Japan would be largely forced into isolation until they run into the rest of the world, either by finding Alaska, contact with the Russians or with a Captain Cook equivalent.

 

[Chiron]

No actually I replied to the points in your previous post.

No you didn't, it was a mishmash not clearly delineated by scenario and unreadable. You would need to edit it heavily to separate the scenarios apart.

Crop disruption is fairly likely as the climate will be affected, most probably in terms of rainfall patterns. Just because its the same latitude doesn't mean the weather conditions are the same. Japan will have reserves in the latter scenario but in the former, which you were primarily referring to if I read it rightly could be another issues. Also likely to be more storms as their in mid-ocean which could have effects especially on the west coast which was more protected before.

Perhaps, but food storage for such events were common in pre-industrial societies due to sudden climate changes and disasters being ingrained in their cultural memory. Japan especially has a long history of disasters in its cultural memory, So they have ample food storage that will see them through.

One point I didn't think of at the time is that Japan is on the Asian continental shelf, with shallow waters on its western coast especially. Such areas tend to be much more fertile for fishing than the deep ocean - other than where there are up-wells from the deep bringing minerals to the surface. As such fishing is very likely to be less successful.

You do realize Japan has multiple lakes with ample fish? And the Shikoku, Honshu, and Kyushu convergence still leaves Seto Inland Sea intact with its fish? They also are nearby Hawaii and on the major trade routes of the Melanesians, Polynesians, and Micronesians. Food is the least of their concerns other than logistics will be more involved and food prices may rise slightly.

Also thanks to their extensive maritime traditions and whaling experiences they will not likely suffer any disruptions to fishing. In fact it will likely lead to them contacting the Oceania Cultures and vice versa which will prompt the Daimyo to start taking notice as it becomes clear their is easy conquest to be had. Oceania isn't the juggernaut China they perceived China as. From there, simple human greed, need to maintain advantage, and the struggle for power will see the Japanese expand outwards.

In terms of tsunamis Japan, especially in 1540, can endure them and in some cases protect against by avoided coastal areas. However my point was that the Cascadia event will hit them a lot more than OTL when it occurs simply because they will be a closer to the full force of the impact.

Which is irrelevant due to the very effective system the Japanese have to spot and warn of Tsunamis and the much greater amount of protective barriers not paved over like in this modern era.

 

[ATP]

1.Japan in 1853 - maybe take Hawaii,but ally with England - monarchy,not republic,and do not invade and occupy them.USA could do that.

2.If they found Hawaii,North America and Australia,they would colonize it - but,i doubt they have ships good enough for that.They need contacts with Europe for better ships.
Not before ,let say,1650.Then ,in 1700 they discovered all of them - time for conqering Hawaii,and made colonies in North America and Australia.
What next? from 19th century wars with USA - again,as England ally.

 

[stevep]

No you didn't, it was a mishmash not clearly delineated by scenario and unreadable. You would need to edit it heavily to separate the scenarios apart.



Perhaps, but food storage for such events were common in pre-industrial societies due to sudden climate changes and disasters being ingrained in their cultural memory. Japan especially has a long history of disasters in its cultural memory, So they have ample food storage that will see them through.



You do realize Japan has multiple lakes with ample fish? And the Shikoku, Honshu, and Kyushu convergence still leaves Seto Inland Sea intact with its fish? They also are nearby Hawaii and on the major trade routes of the Melanesians, Polynesians, and Micronesians. Food is the least of their concerns other than logistics will be more involved and food prices may rise slightly.

Also thanks to their extensive maritime traditions and whaling experiences they will not likely suffer any disruptions to fishing. In fact it will likely lead to them contacting the Oceania Cultures and vice versa which will prompt the Daimyo to start taking notice as it becomes clear their is easy conquest to be had. Oceania isn't the juggernaut China they perceived China as. From there, simple human greed, need to maintain advantage, and the struggle for power will see the Japanese expand outwards.



Which is irrelevant due to the very effective system the Japanese have to spot and warn of Tsunamis and the much greater amount of protective barriers not paved over like in this modern era.

I replied to your points as they occurred. If you find that unreadable you need to make your initial post coherent. As to the rest of your statement its putting wish ahead of facts. Japan may have had reserves but all pre-industrial societies were living close to starvation if crops were bad for a period of time.

On fisheries are the primary sources those in the inland lakes and Inland sea or further afield. If the former then they probably won't see a massive impact but they will have limited facilities for long ranged missions in unknown waters. If the latter then there is the capacity to discover Hawaii and from there possibly go elsewhere but their likely to suffer a significant loss of food supply.

Also with the islands moved to a totally different location, which in itself is likely to screw up a lot of ocean currents and also animal migration patterns, how easily would they quickly find new locations where fish or mammals gather?

So your saying that Japan is totally immune to mammoth tsunamis of any scale? Very realistic, not.

 

[Chiron]

I replied to your points as they occurred. If you find that unreadable you need to make your initial post coherent. As to the rest of your statement its putting wish ahead of facts.

Each scenario was separated by a 1. and a 2. which clearly separated them. The other posters clearly were able to see what I scenario I was responding to. Which makes the issue you as others could not determine what scenario you were responding to.

Japan may have had reserves but all pre-industrial societies were living close to starvation if crops were bad for a period of time.

Uh no, because proper storage of food results in food that lasts years and we still use many of those ancient techniques today to store dried food for years. Japan also has access to shipping and is right on the Oceania Trade Routes which were quite extensive and stretched all the way to India and Africa in the west, Americas in the East and North and Australia to the South. So the food issue is a non issue.

On fisheries are the primary sources those in the inland lakes and Inland sea or further afield. If the former then they probably won't see a massive impact but they will have limited facilities for long ranged missions in unknown waters. If the latter then there is the capacity to discover Hawaii and from there possibly go elsewhere but their likely to suffer a significant loss of food supply.

Given the historical fishing in Lake Biwa alone, yes these are primary fisheries. And given Japan's historical and large merchant marine and pirate fleets, they certainly have the fleet to explore and in the process hit the Oceania cultures which solves all their imagined problems you think they will have.

So your saying that Japan is totally immune to mammoth tsunamis of any scale? Very realistic, not.

You are making a controversy where none exists. The Japanese have dealt with Tsunamis for millennia and developed a culturally ingrained system of dealing with them. It also helps that their protective terrain is not paved over like in this modern era and the heartland is inland and not threatened by Tsunamis. So Cascadia is nothing new to them, they shake it off, honor the dead, appease the Kamis, and move on. Just as they did in 1700 when it occurred, and given it hit Oceania and those cultures weren't wiped out, you are making up an existential threat where none exists.

 

[Chiron]

1.Japan in 1853 - maybe take Hawaii,but ally with England - monarchy,not republic,and do not invade and occupy them.USA could do that.

They are closer to the US which can get more troops faster to them than the British can and they are no longer close to China and Korea or the Dutch with which to play off of. So their entire strategic calculus changes, that and in their minds, this occurred after Commodore Perry came calling and thus it is a sign from the Heavens. So an alliance which greatly benefits both parties and brings in American investments as Japan is seen as a midway refueling stop and transhipment area.

2.If they found Hawaii,North America and Australia,they would colonize it - but,i doubt they have ships good enough for that.They need contacts with Europe for better ships.
Not before ,let say,1650.Then ,in 1700 they discovered all of them - time for conqering Hawaii,and made colonies in North America and Australia.
What next? from 19th century wars with USA - again,as England ally.

Their ships pre-Sakoku policy were ocean going and were sufficient for travel, they won't win a naval fight with a European ship which is more manurable and heavily armed, till they start mounting cannons that is or get lucky and face an idiot Captain who allows himself to be boarded. That said, the European Navy is irrelevant in the mid to late 1500s as they have yet to get sufficient numbers to dominate the trade routes and the bulk will be tied up fighting the Ottomans who actively contested them for control of the Indian Ocean for centuries. So they by dint of position and numbers take this easily and after a few skirmishes with the Europeans, they rapidly start building new ships to counter. This in turn means they will ally with the Indonesians, Mughals, and Iranians, and Ottomans to secure their western flank while guarding their Eastern Flank where the Europeans Americas Colonies will be building the naval ships that enabled the Europeans to start gaining a decisive naval advantage in the mid 1600s.

If Hideyoshi or another Unifier can keep focus and a long term view combined with the ample forests of Japan and elsewhere near them, they can build sufficient ships to counter the European ship building spree and lock out the Europeans from the core Pacific and Indian Ocean areas and buy time for China to get its shit back together which has other knock on effects later.

 

[raharris1973]

I hate to rain on Chiron's parade but here I come to rain on Chiron's parade.

1st Scenario: Japan after realizing what went down, seizes Hawaii and any islands immediately up for grabs and starts industrializing quickly. Also expect the Shogunate to immediately begin securing the Royal Family as well.

2nd Scenario: Japan had handguns before the Portuguese arrived, and were already transitioning to gunpowder armies. They also had an extensive trade and pirate fleet. So they already had knowledge of the outside world, but outside of traders and pirates, it wasn't really relevant to the cultural awareness of the Japanese people and the Daimyos delegated that intel gathering to their ministers aside from Chinese and Korean news.

First priority is Daimyos sending out ships to figure out where they are and re-establish contacts. Other than that, the military reforms that were already in progress, continue on, and Hideyoshi will come out on top, conquer Hawaii and then exile Tokugawa there as a governor. Whether that comes back to haunt his son later is his son's concern, not his. Japanese ships make contact very quickly with Spanish Galleons plying their routes and find Australia which is placed high on Hideyoshi's list of things to do before he croaks. Since there is no Korean War, Hawaii was an easy conquest, and neither the Portuguese or Spanish have spare troops and ships to devote to fighting the large armies of disciplined troops the Japanese can field, the Japanese are well positioned to seize large portions of the Pacific. It will also light a fire under them to develop ocean going ships in large numbers.

I find these predictions for speedy Japanese expansion in both these scenarios to be *massive* overestimates.

Chiron is almost treating it as if any teleportation or time-travel of a territory also comes with a message from the supernatural spirits that says, "You are now in a new location, show us how fast you can expand, go!" and the political leaders of the teleported land are *compelled* to go for maximum expansion, for our entertainment, as if they are in a boardgame.

I don't see any reason to assume or expect any of this.

On the 1854 scenario:

1st Scenario: Japan after realizing what went down, seizes Hawaii and any islands immediately up for grabs and starts industrializing quickly. Also expect the Shogunate to immediately begin securing the Royal Family as well.

No. 1854 Japan isn't in shape to just go imperializing right away. Japan needs to sort out its internal situation and get a real national government going first and figure out how to react to foreigners demanding access. In OTL, Japanese adventurers didn't start doing overseas expeditions until 20 years after the Perry expedition. (the Taiwan punitive expedition). While trying to copy western ships, Japanese crews weren't skilled enough to crew western style steam-ships across the ocean until the 1870s.

While Hawaii is weaker, smaller population neighbor than Korea, China, or China's Taiwan province, it was frequented in the 1850s and beyond by American, British, French, and Russian ships that could blow anything the Japanese had and could operate out of the water. Also, while Japan on the map is somewhat close to Midway island, that is still a long distance (like at least Key West Florida to Maine) from Midway to Oahu or Hawaii's big island.

I don't doubt Japan will trade, modernize its governmental structures, develop its economy, and boost its self-defense, but it is plenty preoccupied establishing internal order (OTL had the final Shogunate-Imperial War in 1868, suppression of the separatist Ezo Republic and settling northern Hokkaido frontier and the Takamori Samurai revolt in 1877) during the period that say, the US might be too busy with its Civil War to interfere in Hawaii.

American interests were getting pretty strongly established in Hawaii from the 1840s and 1850s. It's proximity to the new Japanese trading partner will probably only accelerate that US interest.

Now what I could see, rather than Japanese state conquest and annexation, is Hawaii getting demographically swamped over 20-30 years by Japanese immigration, so that it's population is majority Japanese to the tune of 75%-plus.

What that could mean is that US business and naval interests may dominate Hawaii in the late 19th century and early 20th century, but Hawaii is never put on a path for US statehood, and assuming the US gets more liberal and progressive in the 20th century and allows more representative democratic majority government, Hawaii votes itself into confederation with Japan then.

Alternatively, if US anti-imperialism is strong enough, early enough, the US may yield its influence to local Japanese populations before 1900.

Such high levels of Japanese immigrant population in Hawaii, over 50% by the 1880s, may scramble the dynamics of relations between the Native Hawaiians, their monarchy, the American planter community, and Japanese immigrants. In OTL, by the late 1880s, the Americans were seen as the main threat to the natives and the monarchy, Hawaiians tried some outreach to Japan (and Britain) as a hedge to secure independence. But in this ATL, if Japanese immigrants become a majority, native Hawaiians might see American involvement as the only way to hedge against becoming an extension of Japan.

On the 1540 scenario:

2nd Scenario: ...First priority is Daimyos sending out ships to figure out where they are and re-establish contacts.

The Japanese don't have reliable or sophisticated long-distance sailing technology at this time. Their traders, monks, and pirates, mainly traveled short distances on nearly inland seas like the the Sea of Japan, Yellow Sea, South China Sea. They can investigate, but in most directions, they will be shocked to find...nothing.

Unless Japanese leaders get a detailed briefing with maps and so on from the ASBs, all the Japanese can tell went down is that sunset and dawn hours are messed up, and in a couple weeks/months they'll find that trading neighbors like Korea, China, and the Ryukyu Kingdom have vanished. They won't know what happened, and can only guess at things like maybe the sea God Ryujin/Watatsumi grew angry and swallowed their neighboring countries. Their focus will be as much on propitiating angry sea gods as exploring the edges of their new surroundings.

They won't have the technology, certainly not in 1540, to make journeys across the Pacific that actually reestablish contact with Asian or American mainlands, that allow them to get anywhere, except maybe Hawaii, and get back. Even in the case of Hawaii, since they have no oral or documentary memory of anything being in that direction, it may be a while before the find it, or before there are two ways voyages, and the Hawaiians might find the Japanese first. The same limitations apply with even more force to the archipelagos of Micronesia, Polynesia, Melanesia, and Australia, the closest of which are as far as the width of the entire Atlantic Ocean.

Japan had handguns before the Portuguese arrived, and were already transitioning to gunpowder armies.

No they didn't. They had no matchlock technology for personal firearms anything like the European muskets or arquebuses of the day. Don't confuse the fact that they had the good blacksmithing skills to soon start copying them once they had some and saw them in action with the idea that they had these pre-western contact. Personal weapons were still archery, sword, and spear-based. Cannons were probably around, maybe small crew weapons like a fire lance or hand cannons, but the shooter in those cases always needs helpers to fire and aim their weapons.

Other than that, the military reforms that were already in progress, continue on, and Hideyoshi will come out on top, conquer Hawaii and then exile Tokugawa there as a governor.

Military reforms and internecine warfare, which drive military reforms will surely happen, and Japan is likely to unify at some point, but the difference will be these military reforms will not be driven by European style personal matchlock firearms, state of the art European cannon, or incorporate western ship design, or even for that matter advancing Ming and Korean cannon and ship designs. When unification emerges, we have no idea if it will be under Nobunaga, Hideyoshi, Tokugawa, or others.

Hawaii might not be discovered or be a well-marked sea route in the first century or by the time reunification happens.

Don't get me wrong, the Japanese will get there before Europeans (1770s), and when contact becomes routine, probably take it over island by island, but we have to remember, Japan itself in the renaissance had a decent-sized internal frontier, with much of northern Honshu still occupied by Ainu and not fully brought under Yamato and cultivation, and the island of Ezo/Hokkaido almost entirely Ainu and available for settlement conquest.

Japanese ships make contact very quickly with Spanish Galleons plying their routes and find Australia which is placed high on Hideyoshi's list of things to do before he croaks. Since there is no Korean War, Hawaii was an easy conquest, and neither the Portuguese or Spanish have spare troops and ships to devote to fighting the large armies of disciplined troops the Japanese can field, the Japanese are well positioned to seize large portions of the Pacific.

No. Why would they run into the Spanish galleons? The Spanish galleons went way to the south, in the tropics, and they never went to Hawaii. The whole premise presented here vastly underestimates distances in the Pacific. Distances between each major segment of the Pacific where there are islands and people are vast, like distances between Europe and the US east coast, and the Japanese have no experience, and no motive, to go that far.