Obsessing over your aesthetics is an example of neurosis usually and not dysphpria.
Yeah, aesthetic's not dysphoria. If its a particular thing (like a mole, or body hair
maybe), then it would be. But a general dislike of how you look isn't dysphoria.
Why is this reasoning going to apply more to sex offenders than any other kind of offender? Would a murderer going to prison for a long time not consider whether they'd rather spend it in a woman's prison?
If sex offenders by nature simply are more likely to decide to become trans than other types of criminal, that's still significant.
Eh, sex offenders are the ones we know want to go and rape. Are all murderers this type? Not really. Some murderers aren't the reoffending type, and just went to far in a barfight for example. Also, I'd suspect that the type of person who's in jail for gang related stuff has a bunch of machismo and might not be willing to do that, because they expect to get out and have to deal with life outside. That accounts for some of the murders as well.
I'd also suspect that murderers who would do this would also have done rape as well.
Also, it turns out from the data, 65 of the 125 'trans' people in the prison switched genders 3 months after it became easy to switch prisons for trans people. I'm definitely dubious of this group.