Three assassination hypotheticals for you

WolfBear

Well-known member
Here are three assassination hypotheticals for you:

1. You can either prevent Franz Ferdinand's assassination or assassinate Vladimir Lenin. Which one would you choose? I'd personally choose the first option here since that way, I would get to prevent both Bolshevism in Russia and the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire, but if it wasn't for the Ottoman Empire's extremely massive human rights abuses during WWI, then I'd be more undecided about this since I really do like a lot of the territorial changes that World War I produced. I suppose that it might depend on whether these territorial changes were eventually going to happen anyway or not.

2. You can either assassinate Lenin or assassinate Hitler. Which one would you choose? I'd choose Lenin since it's unclear that there would ever actually be a Nazi Germany without the USSR and in any case, it would be easier to form an anti-Nazi coalition without the USSR's existence, thus making the Fall of France much less likely even in the event that World War II still does eventually occur with a Nazi Germany.

3. You can either assassinate Lenin or assassinate Stalin. Which one would you choose? I'd choose Lenin since Lenin was much more crucial for the creation of the USSR than Stalin was and since the USSR was already becoming a totalitarian nightmare even before Stalin seized absolute power, with even illegal emigration from the USSR becoming nearly impossible by the end of the 1920s. So, I'd prefer the USSR not to exist at all since I don't actually believe that it can evolve into a milder form for decades afterwards.
 

stevep

Well-known member
Here are three assassination hypotheticals for you:

1. You can either prevent Franz Ferdinand's assassination or assassinate Vladimir Lenin. Which one would you choose? I'd personally choose the first option here since that way, I would get to prevent both Bolshevism in Russia and the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire, but if it wasn't for the Ottoman Empire's extremely massive human rights abuses during WWI, then I'd be more undecided about this since I really do like a lot of the territorial changes that World War I produced. I suppose that it might depend on whether these territorial changes were eventually going to happen anyway or not.

2. You can either assassinate Lenin or assassinate Hitler. Which one would you choose? I'd choose Lenin since it's unclear that there would ever actually be a Nazi Germany without the USSR and in any case, it would be easier to form an anti-Nazi coalition without the USSR's existence, thus making the Fall of France much less likely even in the event that World War II still does eventually occur with a Nazi Germany.

3. You can either assassinate Lenin or assassinate Stalin. Which one would you choose? I'd choose Lenin since Lenin was much more crucial for the creation of the USSR than Stalin was and since the USSR was already becoming a totalitarian nightmare even before Stalin seized absolute power, with even illegal emigration from the USSR becoming nearly impossible by the end of the 1920s. So, I'd prefer the USSR not to exist at all since I don't actually believe that it can evolve into a milder form for decades afterwards.

It depends partly on the date but would generally agree with your points about nipping things in the bud ASAP. One possible problem here is by prevent the assassination of FF does that mean the attack doesn't occur or that it occurs but he isn't killed or seriously injured. The latter might not avoid WWI as Austria is still likely to be angry and seek concessions from Serbia if the attack occurs but is successful. If FF lives but his wife dies or is seriously hurt then he could be very much on the warpath as well.

Getting Lenin before he returns to Russia may not save the infant republic although he did a lot of harden the Bolsheviks against any co-operation with other groups. [The party was pretty much his invention after all]. He didn't have total control, hence the July days which he opposed. The Provisional Government is more likely to gain support from more left wing groups and survive the internal threats without him working to undermine it. However there is still the problem of the war which the vast majority of Russians wanted to end.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
It depends partly on the date but would generally agree with your points about nipping things in the bud ASAP. One possible problem here is by prevent the assassination of FF does that mean the attack doesn't occur or that it occurs but he isn't killed or seriously injured. The latter might not avoid WWI as Austria is still likely to be angry and seek concessions from Serbia if the attack occurs but is successful. If FF lives but his wife dies or is seriously hurt then he could be very much on the warpath as well.

Getting Lenin before he returns to Russia may not save the infant republic although he did a lot of harden the Bolsheviks against any co-operation with other groups. [The party was pretty much his invention after all]. He didn't have total control, hence the July days which he opposed. The Provisional Government is more likely to gain support from more left wing groups and survive the internal threats without him working to undermine it. However there is still the problem of the war which the vast majority of Russians wanted to end.

AFAIK, a surviving FF would use his influence at the Austro-Hungarian court to prevent an Austro-Serbian war if the attack is unsuccessful. Now, it's possible that A-H's government could go ahead with the attack anyway, but it's very far from guaranteed considering that FF's uncle FJ generally listened to FF's advice in regards to this. But Yeah, if FF's wife is killed, then it's possible (though, again, not guaranteed) that FF himself will become a hawk and will feel that it's time to teach Serbia a lesson for this, even at the risk of sparking a general European war and indeed a World War.

Whether Russia exits the war or not doesn't matter, just so long as it's done in very late 1917 or early 1918 or later. Then the Allies should still have what it takes to ultimately win the war. What's even more important for Russia's own sake is to prevent Russia from being transformed into an extremely brutal totalitarian state. Whether a Russia that avoids this fate continues the war or makes peace is less relevant to the overall question of whether the Allies are still going to win the war, which was likely as soon as huge numbers of US troops started flowing into Western Europe in 1918. The Allies could, of course, be significantly pissed off at Russia for making peace early, but eventually attitudes should soften, especially with greater awareness as to just how dire Russia's situation was in late 1917 and early 1918 as a result of increasing defeatism among Russian soldiers. Unfortunately, Russian soldiers weren't as motivated to fight after the start of the revolution in large part due to this order:


Given that my own ancestors and relatives have previously lived through 70+ years of Bolshevik tyranny as well as the extremely tumultuous 1990s, it would have certainly been in my own family's interest to prevent the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia by almost any means necessary, including assassinating Lenin before he could ever actually cause any trouble in Russia.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
My own view is that if FF lives, then unless his wife is killed or seriously injured at Sarajevo, the most likely alternative trigger for an alt-World War I would be if Russia will ever decide to behave aggressively towards the Ottoman Empire and, of course, refuse to accept any compromise peace proposals. But in such an alt-WWI, the CPs should win due to Britain very likely remaining neutral, especially if Germany doesn't invade Belgium. And if the CPs will win this alt-WWI, then Russia will not experience a successful Bolshevik Revolution since the victorious CPs will make sure to crush it no matter what. They couldn't do this in real life because they were defeated by the Entente/Allies in World War I before they could ever actually overthrow the Bolsheviks.
 

stevep

Well-known member
AFAIK, a surviving FF would use his influence at the Austro-Hungarian court to prevent an Austro-Serbian war if the attack is unsuccessful. Now, it's possible that A-H's government could go ahead with the attack anyway, but it's very far from guaranteed considering that FF's uncle FJ generally listened to FF's advice in regards to this. But Yeah, if FF's wife is killed, then it's possible (though, again, not guaranteed) that FF himself will become a hawk and will feel that it's time to teach Serbia a lesson for this, even at the risk of sparking a general European war and indeed a World War.

Whether Russia exits the war or not doesn't matter, just so long as it's done in very late 1917 or early 1918 or later. Then the Allies should still have what it takes to ultimately win the war. What's even more important for Russia's own sake is to prevent Russia from being transformed into an extremely brutal totalitarian state. Whether a Russia that avoids this fate continues the war or makes peace is less relevant to the overall question of whether the Allies are still going to win the war, which was likely as soon as huge numbers of US troops started flowing into Western Europe in 1918. The Allies could, of course, be significantly pissed off at Russia for making peace early, but eventually attitudes should soften, especially with greater awareness as to just how dire Russia's situation was in late 1917 and early 1918 as a result of increasing defeatism among Russian soldiers. Unfortunately, Russian soldiers weren't as motivated to fight after the start of the revolution in large part due to this order:


Given that my own ancestors and relatives have previously lived through 70+ years of Bolshevik tyranny as well as the extremely tumultuous 1990s, it would have certainly been in my own family's interest to prevent the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia by almost any means necessary, including assassinating Lenin before he could ever actually cause any trouble in Russia.

My point is that OTL the PG decided to continue the war and unless this changes, which would be a good thing for Russia and ultimately the world because it might save the republic. I say might because it was still weak and if the hard left didn't seek ti undermine it the hard right will probably have a go. However without Lenin and if it makes peace, or possibly commits itself solely to defensive actions for the moment it has a better chance.

Such a move might even be better for the western allies as if the Germans make their last offensive in 1917 rather than 1918 you might avoid the disaster of the Nivelle offensive in April [because there's not much time to cancel the offensive and prepare for a German attack] and more likely avoid the mess that was Passchendaele. If the Germans start switching forces westwards and clearly preparing for an attack and both the above offensives are cancelled while the allies go on the defensive you avoid the French mutinies and the horrendous losses in the Flanders mud. Being on the defensive but with generally greater levels of equipment than the Germans - albeit not as much as in 1918 - they should be able to defeat Germany, albeit with much heavy fighting. The failure of that offensive might prompt Germany to seek an armistice but if not they will fall in 1918, probably somewhat earlier. Also with such a situation in the east their not going to have as much territory to loot.
 

stevep

Well-known member
My own view is that if FF lives, then unless his wife is killed or seriously injured at Sarajevo, the most likely alternative trigger for an alt-World War I would be if Russia will ever decide to behave aggressively towards the Ottoman Empire and, of course, refuse to accept any compromise peace proposals. But in such an alt-WWI, the CPs should win due to Britain very likely remaining neutral, especially if Germany doesn't invade Belgium. And if the CPs will win this alt-WWI, then Russia will not experience a successful Bolshevik Revolution since the victorious CPs will make sure to crush it no matter what. They couldn't do this in real life because they were defeated by the Entente/Allies in World War I before they could ever actually overthrow the Bolsheviks.

On the last point do remember that Germany made peace with the Bolsheviks. True if they had pulled off some miracle win in the west they might have turned against the Bolsheviks, albeit that could well be largely via some aid to Russian White counter-revolutionaries. If Lenin sizes power and a weakened Germany seeks to overthrow them then they will be seen by most Russians as invaders who are seeking to return Czarist move so that could become a long and bloody issue.
 

Sergeant Foley

Well-known member
My own view is that if FF lives, then unless his wife is killed or seriously injured at Sarajevo, the most likely alternative trigger for an alt-World War I would be if Russia will ever decide to behave aggressively towards the Ottoman Empire and, of course, refuse to accept any compromise peace proposals. But in such an alt-WWI, the CPs should win due to Britain very likely remaining neutral, especially if Germany doesn't invade Belgium. And if the CPs will win this alt-WWI, then Russia will not experience a successful Bolshevik Revolution since the victorious CPs will make sure to crush it no matter what. They couldn't do this in real life because they were defeated by the Entente/Allies in World War I before they could ever actually overthrow the Bolsheviks.
I still think the Archduke would've been assassinated regardless and World War I was bound to explode
 

stevep

Well-known member
I still think the Archduke would've been assassinated regardless and World War I was bound to explode

Not really. He had survived one attack earlier that day to be true but the entire plot was rather amateurism and Princip had pretty much given up hope of an attack in despair when a real comedy of errors presented him with the Archduke's car presented to him on a plate, stationary right in front of him.

A major conflict was a clear possibility, especially with the German leadership feeling that time was running out for them to win a quick victory but I don't think it was inevitable.
 

Sergeant Foley

Well-known member
Not really. He had survived one attack earlier that day to be true but the entire plot was rather amateurism and Princip had pretty much given up hope of an attack in despair when a real comedy of errors presented him with the Archduke's car presented to him on a plate, stationary right in front of him.

A major conflict was a clear possibility, especially with the German leadership feeling that time was running out for them to win a quick victory but I don't think it was inevitable.
Wasn't there a movie about the Archduke's assassination?
 

TheRomanSlayer

Unipolarity is for Subhuman Trogdolytes
Preventing Franz Ferdinand's assassination would make for a good alternate history sci-fi, along the lines of the Korean alternate history sci-fi thriller, "2009 Lost Memories".

That being said, a surviving Franz Ferdinand would simply delay WWI by a few years, but good enough for Russia to continue their own kind of reforms that would have made them a half-baked juggernaut by 1917 or 1920, if there was no WWI to fight in. It would also mean Germany and Austria-Hungary would remain stable monarchies as well, but Ottoman massacres against its Christian minorities might get a lot more attention from Europe, since the Armenian rebellions wouldn't be tied to the Caucasus Front of WWI due to said conflict never taking place.
 

Sergeant Foley

Well-known member
Preventing Franz Ferdinand's assassination would make for a good alternate history sci-fi, along the lines of the Korean alternate history sci-fi thriller, "2009 Lost Memories".

That being said, a surviving Franz Ferdinand would simply delay WWI by a few years, but good enough for Russia to continue their own kind of reforms that would have made them a half-baked juggernaut by 1917 or 1920, if there was no WWI to fight in. It would also mean Germany and Austria-Hungary would remain stable monarchies as well, but Ottoman massacres against its Christian minorities might get a lot more attention from Europe, since the Armenian rebellions wouldn't be tied to the Caucasus Front of WWI due to said conflict never taking place.
Big question is whether the assassination of controversial Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi could've been avoided on October 31, 1984?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Big question is whether the assassination of controversial Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi could've been avoided on October 31, 1984?

With a butterfly 70 years into the past, certainly. She won't even be conceived in this TL, most likely, since she was only born in 1917 in real life.

Preventing Franz Ferdinand's assassination would make for a good alternate history sci-fi, along the lines of the Korean alternate history sci-fi thriller, "2009 Lost Memories".

That being said, a surviving Franz Ferdinand would simply delay WWI by a few years, but good enough for Russia to continue their own kind of reforms that would have made them a half-baked juggernaut by 1917 or 1920, if there was no WWI to fight in. It would also mean Germany and Austria-Hungary would remain stable monarchies as well, but Ottoman massacres against its Christian minorities might get a lot more attention from Europe, since the Armenian rebellions wouldn't be tied to the Caucasus Front of WWI due to said conflict never taking place.

If Russia becomes too strong, though, then there is a risk of Britain becoming neutral or even defecting to the CP side, in which case things would become more balanced again unless the Franco-Russians are able to achieve a quick victory in any alt-WWI. If not, though, then the Franco-Russians are likely fucked in the long(er)-run.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Wasn't there a movie about the Archduke's assassination?

There was certainly a book about it:


At my university several years ago, I did a project on this book. It was pretty interesting.

Not really. He had survived one attack earlier that day to be true but the entire plot was rather amateurism and Princip had pretty much given up hope of an attack in despair when a real comedy of errors presented him with the Archduke's car presented to him on a plate, stationary right in front of him.

A major conflict was a clear possibility, especially with the German leadership feeling that time was running out for them to win a quick victory but I don't think it was inevitable.

FWIW, Franz Ferdinand himself was a dove, so something would need to really trigger him to change his mind on this, such as his wife becoming seriously hurt or killed or Russia behaving aggressively in an area of CP interest, such as the Ottoman Empire.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
My point is that OTL the PG decided to continue the war and unless this changes, which would be a good thing for Russia and ultimately the world because it might save the republic. I say might because it was still weak and if the hard left didn't seek ti undermine it the hard right will probably have a go. However without Lenin and if it makes peace, or possibly commits itself solely to defensive actions for the moment it has a better chance.

Such a move might even be better for the western allies as if the Germans make their last offensive in 1917 rather than 1918 you might avoid the disaster of the Nivelle offensive in April [because there's not much time to cancel the offensive and prepare for a German attack] and more likely avoid the mess that was Passchendaele. If the Germans start switching forces westwards and clearly preparing for an attack and both the above offensives are cancelled while the allies go on the defensive you avoid the French mutinies and the horrendous losses in the Flanders mud. Being on the defensive but with generally greater levels of equipment than the Germans - albeit not as much as in 1918 - they should be able to defeat Germany, albeit with much heavy fighting. The failure of that offensive might prompt Germany to seek an armistice but if not they will fall in 1918, probably somewhat earlier. Also with such a situation in the east their not going to have as much territory to loot.

A far-right coup in Russia was still far better than a far-left coup in Russia since at least a far-right Russian regime would have actually allowed emigration, unlike a far-left Russian regime.

And honestly, I still think that even in a 1917 Spring Offensive TL, it would take until 1918 for the Allies to beat the Germans since that's when American manpower is really going to be showing. I fear that in 1917 the Allies simply aren't going to have the necessary reserves to fully take advantage of the failure of the German Spring Offensive. But when millions of American doughboys will end up in France the next year, then the entire situation will significantly change in regards to this.
 

stevep

Well-known member
A far-right coup in Russia was still far better than a far-left coup in Russia since at least a far-right Russian regime would have actually allowed emigration, unlike a far-left Russian regime.

And honestly, I still think that even in a 1917 Spring Offensive TL, it would take until 1918 for the Allies to beat the Germans since that's when American manpower is really going to be showing. I fear that in 1917 the Allies simply aren't going to have the necessary reserves to fully take advantage of the failure of the German Spring Offensive. But when millions of American doughboys will end up in France the next year, then the entire situation will significantly change in regards to this.

Possibly but it was still a mostly Anglo-French force that defeated Germany in 1918. Think a lot of the about 1.8M doughboys who were in Europe by the armistice were still in training there. If you get a German attack in 1917 because Russia is clearly going on the defensive its going to face some well developed British forces in defensive positions and if the move comes before the Nieville offensive then the French are in a very much better position as well. Germany wouldn't have developed the same level of storm-trooper tactics and probably also as well as the losses in 1917 being avoided Lloyd George won't be holding back reserves in Britain to prevent Haig launching what he would see as another wasteful offensive.

Plus of course if in summer and early autumn the Germans are exhausting their armies on the western front, which also means they have no forces to help the Austrian counter OTL that occurred OTL In 1917 or send aid elsewhere to their allies. As such Austria, Turkey and Bulgaria could be feeling more desperate and there is the chance that Russia will have got its act together enough to launch its own offensive in autumn 1917. Under those conditions I could see either the German elite deciding they had lost or the people deciding for them as OTL.

True assuming that the allies are launching their new offensives in late 1917 the armoured units will be less developed and I doubt you would have the Whippet light tanks or their French equivalents in any numbers.

However in this scenario I would suspect that after another bitter and hungry winter the collapse of the CPs would come probably by June 1918 even if the war staggered into that year.
 

stevep

Well-known member
A far-right coup in Russia was still far better than a far-left coup in Russia since at least a far-right Russian regime would have actually allowed emigration, unlike a far-left Russian regime.

And honestly, I still think that even in a 1917 Spring Offensive TL, it would take until 1918 for the Allies to beat the Germans since that's when American manpower is really going to be showing. I fear that in 1917 the Allies simply aren't going to have the necessary reserves to fully take advantage of the failure of the German Spring Offensive. But when millions of American doughboys will end up in France the next year, then the entire situation will significantly change in regards to this.

A far right coup is likely to seek legitimacy with the rest of the world and probably some restoration of the Czarist regime. Rather than being a mad dog system like under Hitler or even the revolutionary type of Mussolini. As such its likely to seek a level of co-operation. It will be markedly worse for Russia than the republic surviving and putting down routes, especially if it seeks to maintain the autocratic regime for any length of time but agree definitely better for Russia and the world than Lenin and his mob gaining control.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
A far right coup is likely to seek legitimacy with the rest of the world and probably some restoration of the Czarist regime. Rather than being a mad dog system like under Hitler or even the revolutionary type of Mussolini. As such its likely to seek a level of co-operation. It will be markedly worse for Russia than the republic surviving and putting down routes, especially if it seeks to maintain the autocratic regime for any length of time but agree definitely better for Russia and the world than Lenin and his mob gaining control.

Not necessarily a Czarist restoration; after all, like in Nazi Germany, whoever is in charge of the Russian far-right might prefer to view themselves as the head honcho and thus might view a Tsarist restoration as problematic since it would create a competing power center that could rival them. Hitler never restored the German monarchy, and quite understandably so, since he did not want anyone daring to challenge him. A restored German monarch could have served as a rallying point for opposition to Hitler in the event that things ever went south, similar to King Michael of Romania when he helped participate in a coup against Ion Antonescu in August 1944:


I do agree that a far-right Russian regime will aim to be friendlier with the rest of the world, though. They will likely have enough space as it is to avoid causing trouble for anyone else. At least, I would think so. Though I suppose that a far-right Russian regime could have revanchist fantasies about reconquering Poland or the Baltics or whatever due to their human capital, or perhaps reviving the Byzantine Empire and also avenging the Armenian Genocide by reconquering the former Ottoman Armenia and Constantinople from the Turks. I also wonder how a far-right Russian regime would treat its Jews: Would it limit itself to things like Jewish quotas or would it aim to, say, deport them en masse to Siberia or Central Asia or whatever, similar to what Stalin did with the Volga Germans in 1941 in real life? Mass murder would probably be out of the question since it wouldn't be "necessary"; there would be plenty of room to deport Russian Jews to without outright murdering them. But Yeah, creating colonies for Russian Jews in Siberia or Central Asia or wherever and then keeping them under close supervision there seems like something that a far-right Russian regime might do. Perhaps charge them a certain amount of money if they will ever want to emigrate from Russia, whether to Palestine or to some other destination. Russia would probably want to avoid mistreating them too badly since otherwise they could mention this bad treatment at Russian hands to the foreign press once they will emigrate. Though maybe Russia simply won't care. :(
 

stevep

Well-known member
Not necessarily a Czarist restoration; after all, like in Nazi Germany, whoever is in charge of the Russian far-right might prefer to view themselves as the head honcho and thus might view a Tsarist restoration as problematic since it would create a competing power center that could rival them. Hitler never restored the German monarchy, and quite understandably so, since he did not want anyone daring to challenge him. A restored German monarch could have served as a rallying point for opposition to Hitler in the event that things ever went south, similar to King Michael of Romania when he helped participate in a coup against Ion Antonescu in August 1944:


I do agree that a far-right Russian regime will aim to be friendlier with the rest of the world, though. They will likely have enough space as it is to avoid causing trouble for anyone else. At least, I would think so. Though I suppose that a far-right Russian regime could have revanchist fantasies about reconquering Poland or the Baltics or whatever due to their human capital, or perhaps reviving the Byzantine Empire and also avenging the Armenian Genocide by reconquering the former Ottoman Armenia and Constantinople from the Turks. I also wonder how a far-right Russian regime would treat its Jews: Would it limit itself to things like Jewish quotas or would it aim to, say, deport them en masse to Siberia or Central Asia or whatever, similar to what Stalin did with the Volga Germans in 1941 in real life? Mass murder would probably be out of the question since it wouldn't be "necessary"; there would be plenty of room to deport Russian Jews to without outright murdering them. But Yeah, creating colonies for Russian Jews in Siberia or Central Asia or wherever and then keeping them under close supervision there seems like something that a far-right Russian regime might do. Perhaps charge them a certain amount of money if they will ever want to emigrate from Russia, whether to Palestine or to some other destination. Russia would probably want to avoid mistreating them too badly since otherwise they could mention this bad treatment at Russian hands to the foreign press once they will emigrate. Though maybe Russia simply won't care. :(

True but I think at least at 1st the bulk of the right would represent itself as restoring the old order, at least in part because that would win them a fair degree of support both internally and to a lesser degree in the western powers. Its weakened somewhat if Nicholas II and his family have still been slaughtered as its less clear who the new monarch is but it gives a figurehead to mobilize the supporters of the old regime. Most especially possibly the clergy who are going to oppose any communist type regime but would also be cautious about a revolutionary right wing leader who wanted to throw out the old system.

Any right wing regime that took over Russia, whether a conservative or a revolutionary one, is likely to have revanchist aims against lands that have broken away. Which is one reason why such a regime is going to be worse for Russia than a surviving republic, albeit probably not the most important. Simply because that would mean tension with those former territories that are now independent and hence the prospect of war which few people wanted after the disaster that was WWI. As such their likely to attract less foreign support and investment.

Not sure what the reaction of any such regime would be to the Jews but probably not friendly, especially since the level of persecution of Jews in the empire prompted them to be significant figures in a fair number of revolutionary groups. As such its likely the regime would see its Jews even more as untrustworthy or treacherous and their likely to be in for a bad time. Although hopefully it won't get anywhere near as bad as under Hitler.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
True but I think at least at 1st the bulk of the right would represent itself as restoring the old order, at least in part because that would win them a fair degree of support both internally and to a lesser degree in the western powers. Its weakened somewhat if Nicholas II and his family have still been slaughtered as its less clear who the new monarch is but it gives a figurehead to mobilize the supporters of the old regime. Most especially possibly the clergy who are going to oppose any communist type regime but would also be cautious about a revolutionary right wing leader who wanted to throw out the old system.

Any right wing regime that took over Russia, whether a conservative or a revolutionary one, is likely to have revanchist aims against lands that have broken away. Which is one reason why such a regime is going to be worse for Russia than a surviving republic, albeit probably not the most important. Simply because that would mean tension with those former territories that are now independent and hence the prospect of war which few people wanted after the disaster that was WWI. As such their likely to attract less foreign support and investment.

Not sure what the reaction of any such regime would be to the Jews but probably not friendly, especially since the level of persecution of Jews in the empire prompted them to be significant figures in a fair number of revolutionary groups. As such its likely the regime would see its Jews even more as untrustworthy or treacherous and their likely to be in for a bad time. Although hopefully it won't get anywhere near as bad as under Hitler.

FWIW, I think that the argument would be that the former Tsarist system led to the Bolshevik disaster (even if it was ultimately stopped by the Russian Whites in this TL) and that thus a new, better right-wing model for Russia needs to present itself in order to avoid any repeat of this ever happening again. It might be a convincing argument; similar to why many Germans supported Hitler in the 1930s in real life even though he was never willing to restore the Hohenzollern monarchy, which he (along with the Social Democrats and the Jews) blamed for Germany's 1918 defeat.

Agreed about the Jews.
 

stevep

Well-known member
FWIW, I think that the argument would be that the former Tsarist system led to the Bolshevik disaster (even if it was ultimately stopped by the Russian Whites in this TL) and that thus a new, better right-wing model for Russia needs to present itself in order to avoid any repeat of this ever happening again. It might be a convincing argument; similar to why many Germans supported Hitler in the 1930s in real life even though he was never willing to restore the Hohenzollern monarchy, which he (along with the Social Democrats and the Jews) blamed for Germany's 1918 defeat.

Agreed about the Jews.

Its a possibility although there was also a desire for the restoration of the monarchy among a fair number of the right in Germany. Could go either way and you could end up with something like France where there is a monarchist claimant [probably only one rather than three in the French case!] and support but also a right wing government that see it as a threat to opposed.
 

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