The Nazis win at Stalingrad

[WolfBear]

What would have happened had the Nazis won the Battle of Stalingrad? Would the Soviet Union have had a much more difficult time transporting Caucasian oil to the European part of the Soviet Union? Would the Soviet Union have collapsed and/or given up on the war by making a separate peace? Would there have been any other effects of this?

I'm asking because the Germans and their Allies conquered most of Stalingrad at one point in time, but the Soviets kept fighting and eventually encircled the Axis forces in Stalingrad from the rear. This makes me believe that an Axis victory at Stalingrad was unlikely to actually occur, but still, what if it did?

 

[Cherico]

It's a war of national survival so the Russians continue fighting

 

[ChrisNuttall]

In this case, we would have to define ‘victory’.

One – the Nazis take the city and push through to Baku.

Two – the Nazis get most of their army out of the trap and while they get hurt they don’t take the massive losses in men and material they did in OTL.

In the first case, they probably do manage to shut down the oil refineries for a while with bombing and ground assaults. Captaining them won’t solve the problem of getting the oil back to Germany, nor will shutting down the land route to Iran keep the West from sending supplies to Russia. There’s a vague possibility Turkey will join the war on Germany’s side, but I wouldn’t rate it very likely. The Russians will suffer some supply problems, and there will probably be revolts in Central Asia, but they won’t have a choice – they have to keep fighting.

In the second, the Germans probably chew up the Russian forces and hurt them badly, but the Russians can keep resupplying and the Germans cannot. The Germans still lose, but not as badly and the Russians get hurt worse.

Either way, the German position in North Africa is doomed and the Western Allies will still mount an invasion of Europe in 1944.

Chris

 

[stevep]

In this case, we would have to define ‘victory’.

One – the Nazis take the city and push through to Baku.

Two – the Nazis get most of their army out of the trap and while they get hurt they don’t take the massive losses in men and material they did in OTL.

In the first case, they probably do manage to shut down the oil refineries for a while with bombing and ground assaults. Captaining them won’t solve the problem of getting the oil back to Germany, nor will shutting down the land route to Iran keep the West from sending supplies to Russia. There’s a vague possibility Turkey will join the war on Germany’s side, but I wouldn’t rate it very likely. The Russians will suffer some supply problems, and there will probably be revolts in Central Asia, but they won’t have a choice – they have to keep fighting.

In the second, the Germans probably chew up the Russian forces and hurt them badly, but the Russians can keep resupplying and the Germans cannot. The Germans still lose, but not as badly and the Russians get hurt worse.

Either way, the German position in North Africa is doomed and the Western Allies will still mount an invasion of Europe in 1944.

Chris

Would agree plus in the probably extremely unlikely even of the Germans reaching Baku their pretty certain to find a burning hell as Stalin had ordered the destruction of the oil-fields if the Germans got close to them.

The big concern for the Soviets if the fields were either lost or possibly shut down by German bombing would be that they supplied the vast bulk of the USSR's fuel so they would have more problems building up the air and mobile forces for rapid advances. Germany getting oil out of Baku would be extremely unlikely.

Also if the Germans managed to capture Stalingrad - which Hitler would insist on holding and say advance down to the Volga delta at Astrakhan then while they might have the Volga as a defensive line its still a hell of a long line to hold, even without any southern front. Also a long, long way from Germany and other production centres so a big logistical haul to keep forces in the region supplied. This can be helped if they can reach Georgia and hence make the Black Sea fairly safe for sea movement.

Steve

 

[WolfBear]

Would agree plus in the probably extremely unlikely even of the Germans reaching Baku their pretty certain to find a burning hell as Stalin had ordered the destruction of the oil-fields if the Germans got close to them.

The big concern for the Soviets if the fields were either lost or possibly shut down by German bombing would be that they supplied the vast bulk of the USSR's fuel so they would have more problems building up the air and mobile forces for rapid advances. Germany getting oil out of Baku would be extremely unlikely.

Also if the Germans managed to capture Stalingrad - which Hitler would insist on holding and say advance down to the Volga delta at Astrakhan then while they might have the Volga as a defensive line its still a hell of a long line to hold, even without any southern front. Also a long, long way from Germany and other production centres so a big logistical haul to keep forces in the region supplied. This can be helped if they can reach Georgia and hence make the Black Sea fairly safe for sea movement.

Steve

How exactly are the Soviets themselves going to survive without the Baku oil fields? Through Lend-Lease oil? Would that actually be enough for them?

 

[ATP]

What would have happened had the Nazis won the Battle of Stalingrad? Would the Soviet Union have had a much more difficult time transporting Caucasian oil to the European part of the Soviet Union? Would the Soviet Union have collapsed and/or given up on the war by making a separate peace? Would there have been any other effects of this?

I'm asking because the Germans and their Allies conquered most of Stalingrad at one point in time, but the Soviets kept fighting and eventually encircled the Axis forces in Stalingrad from the rear. This makes me believe that an Axis victory at Stalingrad was unlikely to actually occur, but still, what if it did?

Germans,not nazis.What language they speak? german,or nazi?

Aside from that - Hitler lost thanks to his own stupidity,so he would lost again,BUT - when A bombs drop on Berlin in 1945 ending war,soviets would be still on Dniepr river line,maybe even Don.
So - free Central Europa,much better world.

 

[stevep]

How exactly are the Soviets themselves going to survive without the Baku oil fields? Through Lend-Lease oil? Would that actually be enough for them?

Probably not a great amount as the supply issue would be the key. You could only really get that in significant amounts via the Trans-Siberian and I suspect that was already operating pretty much at capacity so what would they have to give up to get more oil.

However the issue would be less surviving than winning more decisively. Their going to be restricted in air and mobile ground forces which will hurt them in the defence and seriously cripple them on the offensive. - As such it depends on being without a Baku that is isolated except by sea from the USSR by German forces say occupying a line along the lower Volga and relieved later but still largely in working condition or one that is destroyed to prevent an occupying German force from occupying it. The former would weaken the Soviets and delay their later march west somewhat and the latter would really hurt them a lot.

 

[SpaceOrbis]

What would have happened had the Nazis won the Battle of Stalingrad? Would the Soviet Union have had a much more difficult time transporting Caucasian oil to the European part of the Soviet Union? Would the Soviet Union have collapsed and/or given up on the war by making a separate peace? Would there have been any other effects of this?

I'm asking because the Germans and their Allies conquered most of Stalingrad at one point in time, but the Soviets kept fighting and eventually encircled the Axis forces in Stalingrad from the rear. This makes me believe that an Axis victory at Stalingrad was unlikely to actually occur, but still, what if it did?

I will be the first person to say my knowledge on this battle is very barebones, to say the least, but from what I have seen and read they were pushing too fast for their supply lines to keep up with in any meaningful way. As such they get cut off and it devolved into bloody street-to-street and room-to-room fighting. As for would the Soviets collapse my view is no. This is a nation that sent their troops into battle with no gun and no ammo and needed to get what they didn't have by means of looting their dead troops. I don't see a people that are willing to die for their motherland to such a high level to just roll over because of a lost city. No in my eyes a win here only slows their defect at the hands of the allied forces. Maybe it buys them a few more weeks but once we land and start our push eastwards the hourglass starts to fall.

If the nazis did pull out a win the loss of manpower would ensure they still lose the war. Fighting a two-font war will see their manpower pulled to opposite ends of the continent and to beat the USSR that is what is needed most. The second that manpower is moved west to try to hold off the United States you can bet they will be pushing their lines hard. I think Hitler doomed his nation when he started a war with them. If he had kept them on his side maybe he would've won.

 

[ATP]

I will be the first person to say my knowledge on this battle is very barebones, to say the least, but from what I have seen and read they were pushing too fast for their supply lines to keep up with in any meaningful way. As such they get cut off and it devolved into bloody street-to-street and room-to-room fighting. As for would the Soviets collapse my view is no. This is a nation that sent their troops into battle with no gun and no ammo and needed to get what they didn't have by means of looting their dead troops. I don't see a people that are willing to die for their motherland to such a high level to just roll over because of a lost city. No in my eyes a win here only slows their defect at the hands of the allied forces. Maybe it buys them a few more weeks but once we land and start our push eastwards the hourglass starts to fall.

If the nazis did pull out a win the loss of manpower would ensure they still lose the war. Fighting a two-font war will see their manpower pulled to opposite ends of the continent and to beat the USSR that is what is needed most. The second that manpower is moved west to try to hold off the United States you can bet they will be pushing their lines hard. I think Hitler doomed his nation when he started a war with them. If he had kept them on his side maybe he would've won.

They never was on his side,but planned backstab him from the start.And would do so,if germans do not strike first.
And soviets do not fought becouse they want,but becouse NKWD was schooting in their back,and germans murdered prisoners.

In 1941 soviet armies mass surrender or run,that is why germans advanced so far.They started fighting when germans showed that they do not come liberate them,but enslave like sralin.

 

[SpaceOrbis]

They never was on his side, but planned backstab him from the start and would do so,if germans do not strike first.
And soviets do not fought because they want, but because NKWD was shooting in their back, and the germans were murdering prisoners.

In 1941 soviet armies mass surrender or run, that is why germans advanced so far. They started fighting when germens showed that they do not come liberate them, but enslave like Sralin.

I'm not saying they would never do that because any man willing to send his troops into battle with no guns or ammo is a man who can't really be trusted not to backstab when he believes he can get away with it. I'm just saying that Adolf Hitler kind of shot himself in the foot when he started a war when he hadn't beaten the United Kingdom. He made really poor decisions. and didn't trust his generals to do what needed to be done. In short, I think he tried to do far too much far too quickly and in his mad rush to make his nation a great power he ensured it would fall.

A win at Stalingrad helps keep his mad dram alive but I think he would've still lost because of all his bad choices. One win doesn't undo years of bad military decisions.

 

[49ersfootball]

I'm not saying they would never do that because any man willing to send his troops into battle with no guns or ammo is a man who can't really be trusted not to backstab when he believes he can get away with it. I'm just saying that Adolf Hitler kind of shot himself in the foot when he started a war when he hadn't beaten the United Kingdom. He made really poor decisions. and didn't trust his generals to do what needed to be done. In short, I think he tried to do far too much far too quickly and in his mad rush to make his nation a great power he ensured it would fall.

A win at Stalingrad helps keep his mad dram alive but I think he would've still lost because of all his bad choices. One win doesn't undo years of bad military decisions.

Putin is doing the same fucking thing. Jackass cannot live forever!

 

[SpaceOrbis]

Putin is doing the same fucking thing. Jackass cannot live forever!

I'm not really sure what you're implying with this comment. If you mean he is attacking people to regain what he sees as past glories than I agree he is. Which I find funny given I think he said this was being done to de-Nazify Ukraine. But all he has done is get his people killed. Putin like Adolf Hitler needs to be stopped. Both men are/were dangerous if you allow them to do whatever they want. I feel for those people but I don't see an end in sight sadly.

 

[49ersfootball]

I'm not really sure what you're implying with this comment. If you mean he is attacking people to regain what he sees as past glories than I agree he is. Which I find funny given I think he said this was being done to de-Nazify Ukraine. But all he has done is get his people killed. Putin like Adolf Hitler needs to be stopped. Both men are/were dangerous if you allow them to do whatever they want. I feel for those people but I don't see an end in sight sadly.

Sad thing is that Ukraine did NOT start this war. Putin did!

The Baltic States & Poland are next on Putin's hit-list.

 

[SpaceOrbis]

Sad thing is that Ukraine did NOT start this war. Putin did!

The Baltic States & Poland are next on Putin's hit-list.

I agree if Putin somehow turns that mess of a war, sorry "Special Military Operation" he'll be eyeing those places next. He is the 21st century's Hitler. If we allow this man to do what he wants he'll just keep going. I'm fairly sure those places are in NATO so hopefully that means he'll wait a bit before trying to go for those. But it's my hope this mess will upset the people enough to see them remove him for us.

 

[ATP]

I'm not saying they would never do that because any man willing to send his troops into battle with no guns or ammo is a man who can't really be trusted not to backstab when he believes he can get away with it. I'm just saying that Adolf Hitler kind of shot himself in the foot when he started a war when he hadn't beaten the United Kingdom. He made really poor decisions. and didn't trust his generals to do what needed to be done. In short, I think he tried to do far too much far too quickly and in his mad rush to make his nation a great power he ensured it would fall.

A win at Stalingrad helps keep his mad dram alive but I think he would've still lost because of all his bad choices. One win doesn't undo years of bad military decisions.

Sralin replaced NKWD border troops with Red Army on part of the border,which mean,that he would attack in 1941.Hitler do not have other choice but to attack him.

But,i agree that taking Stalingrad would change notching for germany,even if they take Leningrad and Baku next year.
USA joined fun,and germans were doomed no matter what they would do.

But,thanks to soviets advancing slower,maybe we would have free Central Europe here.Imagine war ending with mushrooms in Berlin,when soviets are still on Dniepr....

Sad thing is that Ukraine did NOT start this war. Putin did!

The Baltic States & Poland are next on Putin's hit-list.

Yes,Putin openly said in 2021,that he want us back.Considering that Sralin is his personal hero,he would go for rest of Europe if he take us.Becouse Sralin wanted entire Europe - and would get it,if he attacked first in 1941.

 

[gral]

How exactly are the Soviets themselves going to survive without the Baku oil fields? Through Lend-Lease oil? Would that actually be enough for them?

They would get their fuel from the USA, to replace both the Baku and the Ural fields(which start to get close to the German lines for comfort if the Germans take Stalingrad and - especially - the Volga River mouth).

 

[ATP]

They would get their fuel from the USA, to replace both the Baku and the Ural fields(which start to get close to the German lines for comfort if the Germans take Stalingrad and - especially - the Volga River mouth).

Indeed,it would be still 50-30% of what they made in OTL.And use gave them all fuel for planes anyway,becouse they were unable to made it.