The "future" territorial expansion of France without a French Revolution?

[WolfBear]

Had, for whatever reason, the French Revolution never occurred (or at least not for a very long time), what would the "future" territorial expansion of France have looked like?

This is a map of France's territorial expansion over the last 2.5 centuries before the French Revolution, FWIW:

Territorial evolution of France - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

For instance, would there ever be any additional attempts to conquer the Austrian Netherlands, the Rhineland, and/or French Switzerland? What about any additional territories, both inside and outside of Europe?

Thoughts on this?

 

[stevep]

Had, for whatever reason, the French Revolution never occurred (or at least not for a very long time), what would the "future" territorial expansion of France have looked like?

This is a map of France's territorial expansion over the last 2.5 centuries before the French Revolution, FWIW:

Territorial evolution of France - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

For instance, would there ever be any additional attempts to conquer the Austrian Netherlands, the Rhineland, and/or French Switzerland? What about any additional territories, both inside and outside of Europe?

Thoughts on this?

Well France made several attempts to take the southern Netherlands - OTL Belgium - so assuming that whatever butterflies avoid the revolution don't stop the dynastic wars there's likely to be another one. Although at the moment France and Austria are allies as well as liked by marriage so it would take something to change that. Ditto with further advances into 'German' territory as Austria as the chief state in Germany and usual holder of the HRE title is going to be unhappy with any French encroachments there.

One possible way it might happen would be if the Polish partitions go ahead and France wants compensation for Austrian and Prussian gains in the east. Possibly there might be some agreement that the Austrian Netherlands, or parts of them were transferred to France. However the region is pretty wealthy so not sure how likely this is. Also Britain, the Dutch Netherlands, Prussia and probably most of the smaller German states would be pretty damned unhappy about such an idea as it would directly threat the 1st two and enable a markedly greater threat to the Rhineland region.

 

[WolfBear]

Well France made several attempts to take the southern Netherlands - OTL Belgium - so assuming that whatever butterflies avoid the revolution don't stop the dynastic wars there's likely to be another one. Although at the moment France and Austria are allies as well as liked by marriage so it would take something to change that. Ditto with further advances into 'German' territory as Austria as the chief state in Germany and usual holder of the HRE title is going to be unhappy with any French encroachments there.

One possible way it might happen would be if the Polish partitions go ahead and France wants compensation for Austrian and Prussian gains in the east. Possibly there might be some agreement that the Austrian Netherlands, or parts of them were transferred to France. However the region is pretty wealthy so not sure how likely this is. Also Britain, the Dutch Netherlands, Prussia and probably most of the smaller German states would be pretty damned unhappy about such an idea as it would directly threat the 1st two and enable a markedly greater threat to the Rhineland region.

Yeah, that makes sense. That said, though, what about further French expansion into Italy? France already got Corsica in 1768, after all.

Interestingly enough, it appears that France had a realistic chance to keep the Austrian Netherlands in 1748 had it actually desired to do so, but that French King Louis XV's government lacked the desire for this:

What if Louis XV held on to Austrian Netherlands at the end of the War of Austrian Succession, 1748?

In OTL, Louis XV gave up France's hard-won gains in Austrian Netherlands (Belgium) , much to the chagrin of the French nobility and public. What if he held on to those lands? Could he have still gotten a peace signed at Aix La-Chappelle in 1748 to end the expenses of war and British blockade...

www.the-sietch.com

Had France actually done this, though, then it would have probably been much harder for France to successfully acquire Corsica later on since a France that already controls the Austrian Netherlands might have motivated the British to militarily respond to any French attempt to purchase and annex Corsica (due to France appearing scarier and more powerful in this TL relative to our TL):

Corsican Crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So, no French Napoleon unless he of course subsequently decides to move to France for whatever reason. Otherwise, he would have been stuck in Corsica, outside of France.