Culture The Ferguson Effect: Policing the Police (Study Within)

[Husky_Khan]

This paper provides the first empirical examination of the impact of federal and state "Pattern-or Practice" investigations on crime and policing. For investigations that were not preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force, investigations, on average, led to a statistically significant reduction in homicides and total crime. In stark contrast, all investigations that were preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force have led to a large and statistically significant increase in homicides and total crime. We estimate that these investigations caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%. Other theories we test such as changes in community trust or the aggressiveness of consent decrees associated with investigations -- all contradict the data in important ways. - Study Abstract

In June 2020, Harvard Economists Roland Fryer and Tanaya Devi released a paper showing evidence of something called "The Ferguson Effect" and studied evidence of it's potential to exist in five cities where investigations into police departments following a 'controversial' and widely publicized police shooting of a Black man took place (or as they refer to it, a "viral incident").

These cities were Baltimore, MD, Chicago, IL, Cincinnati, OH, Riverside, CA, and Ferguson, MO. The earliest of these incidents took place in 1998 in Riverside and the latest in 2015. The paper examinations data in the years following the "viral incidents" where the police shot an unarmed African-American civilian.

For investigations that were preceded by a viral incident of deadly force – Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Riverside and Ferguson – there is a marked increase in both homicide and total crime. The cumulative amount of crime that we estimate due to pattern-or-practice investigations in the two years after the announcement for this sample is 21.10 (5.54) per 100,000 for homicides and 1191.77 (429.50) per 100,000 for total felony crime. Put plainly, the causal effect of the investigations in these five cities – triggered mainly by the deaths of Freddie Gray, Laquan McDonald, Timothy Thomas, Tyisha Miller and Michael Brown at the hands of police – has resulted in 893 more homicides than would have been expected with no investigation and more than 33,472 additional felony crimes, relative to synthetic control cities.

To get a sense of how large this number is, the average number of fatal shootings of African-American civilians by police officers in Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Riverside and Saint Louis, per year, is 12.5 Thus, even if investigations cured these cities of all future civilian casualties at the hands of police, it would take approximately 75 years to“break even.” Our estimates suggest that investigating police departments after viral incidents of police violence is responsible for approximately 450 excess homicides per year. This is 2x the loss of life in the line of duty for the US Military in a year, 12.6x the annual loss of life due to school shootings, and 3x the loss of life due to lynchings between 1882 and 1901 – the most gruesome years.

The incident that sparks an investigation into a police department is an important determinant of how the investigation will impact policing and crime. For investigations that are sparked by mostly civilian complaints, allegations, lawsuits or media reports of excessive force, investigations caused a statistically significant decline in homicide and total crime rates. These investigations saved lives – 61 per investigation, in the 24 months following investigations. For the five investigations that were sparked by nationally visible incidents of deadly use of force – Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati, Ferguson and Riverside– investigations cause statistically significant increases in both homicide and total crime. Contrary to other investigations, investigations during this time lost lives – 179 of them, per investigation, in the 24 months following the start of the investigation. That’s 893 total. Almost 900 individuals whose potential may not have been realized. And, we are still counting. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that these five cities converge to pre-investigation levels 51 months after the investigation and, by that time, almost 1214 excess homicides will have occurred.

The study, sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research, can be found here in PDF format.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27324.pdf