What if the 1849 US is ISOT'd in time to 1949? Let's say March 4, 1849 to March 4, 1949. Just how much of a victory would this be for the Soviet Union as well as for global Communism? Other than Kim Il-Sung winning the Korean War, what else would change in this TL? Might the Soviet Union attempt a full-on conquest of all of Europe now that the US is completely defanged?
The 1849 US is ISOT'd in time to 1949
- Thread starter WolfBear
- Start date
Its a distinct danger. Would there be any US nukes outside US territory? Note that Hawaii and Alaska for instance are still outside the US in 1849 so along possibly with forward based nukes in say Britain or the Philippines. If so can they deter Stalin until Britain, probably with the help of what's left of the US scientific establishment overseas get its own bomb. If war is avoided can the allies maintain the Berlin Airlift? Without the industrial base of the US and also its agricultural output plus the lack of Marshall Aid its going to be a grim time for Europe and much of the rest of the world for the next few years.
Not sure of the significance of the date but it is exactly a month before the NATO treaty was signed although without its foremost member this is going to be changed if not delayed. Especially since it was signed in Washington so if there were negotiations beforehand some leading non-American figures could also be lost.
Of course assuming that was with Stalin is avoided what happens with the old US? Its now weaker than Mexico or Canada - albeit the expat forces and allies will seek to protect it against land grabs. At the same time its a very conservative with no rights for women or minorities and of course slavery being very prominent. At the same time many/most of the down-timers are likely to be opposed to being dragged kicking and screaming into the 20th century.
However unless there is a clear nuclear deterrent I would expect Stalin to seek to take over at least the rest of Germany. Probably more along with the collapse of US support for the already faltering KMT in China. At which point it gets very bad. Britain should be secure but not sure what else of Europe would be safe if he went full throttle.
The Soviets OTL tested their 1st nuclear division on 29th August OTL although how long before that becomes a deploy-able device I don't know.
Not sure of the significance of the date but it is exactly a month before the NATO treaty was signed although without its foremost member this is going to be changed if not delayed. Especially since it was signed in Washington so if there were negotiations beforehand some leading non-American figures could also be lost.
Of course assuming that was with Stalin is avoided what happens with the old US? Its now weaker than Mexico or Canada - albeit the expat forces and allies will seek to protect it against land grabs. At the same time its a very conservative with no rights for women or minorities and of course slavery being very prominent. At the same time many/most of the down-timers are likely to be opposed to being dragged kicking and screaming into the 20th century.
However unless there is a clear nuclear deterrent I would expect Stalin to seek to take over at least the rest of Germany. Probably more along with the collapse of US support for the already faltering KMT in China. At which point it gets very bad. Britain should be secure but not sure what else of Europe would be safe if he went full throttle.
The Soviets OTL tested their 1st nuclear division on 29th August OTL although how long before that becomes a deploy-able device I don't know.
Of course,you just created soviet world.Becouse after fall of France and England there would be no country capable of stopping them.
On the other side - 1949 USA in 1849 create american world.
Yes.After 100 years and genociding 50% of human population.After that,humanity would start again from iron age level.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
After 15-20 years, the decline starts once Stalin dies and/or Mao gets some nukes.
Also, the USA's existing military assets, like nukes, bombers and bases will still be around.
The reconstruction of Europe will slow down somewhat and the massive market that is the USA will disappear, which will probably be the biggest problem in the long run.
Indeed.I forget,that we would have China - soviet war if USA do not intervene.Now,it would happen - and,as a result,China would cease to exist,and soviets would be weakened to the point when europeans would rise.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
You are forgetting that both the UK and France had or were very close to Nukes.
That program will escalate.
Also the British will probably go in and add the downtime USA to their Commonwealth/Protectorate/Whatever.
Without the USA, fractures in the Commie relations will escalate and grow wider and there will be fast paced remilitarization in the anti-Communist camp, that will actually also benefit the economy.
Also, no USA equals no push for rapid and incompetent decolonization.
At the end of the Day Japan and the United States of Europe will probably be the biggest net beneficiaries.
Too optymistic.Japan and maybe England would survive,but France not,becouse soviets would keep throwing tanks at them till they fall,and they have big commie fifth column,too.
More interesting is what 1949 USA do in 1849 - go for conqest of the world,or sleep in splendid isolation?
Or maybe "only" care about making South America USA colony?
I would agree on the 1st point definitely. Britain didn't get the bomb until Operation Hurricane in October 1952 and that was a test device. In a crisis such as a Soviet invasion it would become an urgent priority but there would be a hell of a lot of others, including a massive air and land programme needed to try and equip allies while they last.
Also the disappearance of the US means no Marshall Plan and a serious disruption of world trade. Apart from anything else the more important agricultural region in the world has just been lost at a point while Europe is still in recovery. Plus a lot of the equipment of the orphaned US forces and their allies, including Britain, is from US factories and their no longer there.
If US forces and especially nukes outside the US don't deter Stalin then the only other thing that might work could be massive gas attacks. Britain still have a large strategic bomber force and could do a lot of damage to targets it could reach. Whether and how quickly the British government decided to do that would be a big issue. Plus how quickly did the UK get rid of their wartime gas stockpile and did we have access to enough details to produce nerve gas in significant amounts?
As such if Stalin went to war and we can't decapitate the USSR I think Soviet forces would take most/all of continental Europe and probably the ME as well. You might be able to stop them on the Pyrenees, in Italy and at the Suez Canal say. They might get stopped in S Asia if India and Pakistan could get their act together given the logistical problems the Soviets would have, the numbers the defenders could assemble and possibly by then Britain and Canada could send significant aid. China would go communist and Korea fall but hopefully Japan could be held although that would mean a deal with the former Japanese military. How much of SE Asia would also fall I don't know.
If could be that an already weakened USSR would overstretch itself and collapse but I wouldn't rely on it.
1849 US is probably going to be largely ignored simply because the bulk of their neighbours are too busy with the Soviet threat. Although possibly Mexico might ask questions about California, Texas and the lands in between which to the down time US their only formally claimed a few years before. Up time US forces would oppose this of course but they might not have any resources available to do anything about this.
The other issue with 1849 US would be slavery of course and also if it does try any expansion of either its territory or slavery then it would very likely get stamped on. Definitely not going north and trying to introduce slavery into the up-time US Virgin Islands, or any neighbouring region isn't going to be accepted.
In terms of 1949 US in 1849 its going to see a lot of disruption due to lost trade and its also lost its overseas people, including those in places such as Hawaii which haven't been brought back. However once it adjusts, which shouldn't take long the world is pretty much its oyster as no one can oppose it militarily. Likely to seek to suppress slavery in the Americas but would it seek to do that in other areas, such as Africa and the ME? It might argue for the ending of European colonization but does that mean its leaving areas unprotected or stepping in itself and also what does it do about European settlements already in place?