Student Debt and Responses

There is no way in hell trillions are forgiven every year. And yes, the economy does rely on people paying what they owe, or there being consequences. Almost all banks in the US rely on mortgages, which is a loan that needs to be paid. Most other debt? Also paid. This includes commercial paper, Treasury bills, and Credit Card debt, and I can go on. And you can usually figure out about how likely it is to be repaid by looking at the interest rate minus inflation. The lower that number, the safer the investment.

Also, bankruptcy is not forgiveness. Bankruptcy involves losing what got you into debt in the first place. But we can't do that for colleges. Hence the only options are the following for college loans: legally guaranteed loans, no loans, or free college. Because the only thing in the world that keeps loans available at any sorta interest rate is that they are legally guaranteed. Otherwise tell me what is people graduating then going through bankruptcy? It's just the logical option that saves tens of thousands of dollars, as you can't lose a degree in bankruptcy.
You do, however, utterly trash your credit score when you declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy; essentially forfeiting your ability to take out any sort of loan in the future. You also, I'm given to understand, can lose everything else you own that might be of any value which could be sold off; leaving you with basically nothing.
 
There is no way in hell trillions are forgiven every year. And yes, the economy does rely on people paying what they owe, or there being consequences. Almost all banks in the US rely on mortgages, which is a loan that needs to be paid. Most other debt? Also paid. This includes commercial paper, Treasury bills, and Credit Card debt, and I can go on. And you can usually figure out about how likely it is to be repaid by looking at the interest rate minus inflation. The lower that number, the safer the investment.

Also, bankruptcy is not forgiveness. Bankruptcy involves losing what got you into debt in the first place. But we can't do that for colleges. Hence the only options are the following for college loans: legally guaranteed loans, no loans, or free college. Because the only thing in the world that keeps loans available at any sorta interest rate is that they are legally guaranteed. Otherwise tell me what is people graduating then going through bankruptcy? It's just the logical option that saves tens of thousands of dollars, as you can't lose a degree in bankruptcy.
You are aware that mortgages are written down or written off all the time right? Or debts sold for dimes on the dollar to debt collections. Or all the more convoluted forms of debt shrinkage with speculative investments.

You might have heard of the housing market collapse that happened for a number of reason, but included the government instructing banks to give loans to people they would not normally give them to. When that bubble burst, a lot of banks wrote off those loans.
 
You do, however, utterly trash your credit score when you declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy; essentially forfeiting your ability to take out any sort of loan in the future. You also, I'm given to understand, can lose everything else you own that might be of any value which could be sold off; leaving you with basically nothing.
This isn't entirely the case, though it's close Bear in mind Bankruptcy can be stupid complicated and rules change per every state and in some cases per every town, but usually you can keep 1 car (up to a certain limit of value, you're likely to keep a Volkswagen and unlikely to keep a Rolls Royce), 1 house, all your clothes and furniture, and general day-to-day items.

This can vary by dollar amount or other limits. F'rex in Oklahoma you get to keep:

  • One homestead Up to 160 acres outside of a city or town, or 1 acre inside city limits
  • All household furniture and appliances, including a personal computer;
  • Burial plots;
  • Certain farm implements and tools of the trade, up to an aggregate $10,000;
  • Books, portraits, and pictures;
  • Wearing apparel up to an aggregate $4,000 in value;
  • Up to $3,000 aggregate value in wedding and anniversary rings;
  • Professionally prescribed health aids;
  • Guns, not to exceed $2,000 in aggregate value;
  • Livestock up to:
    • Two horses, two bridles, and two saddles
    • Five milk cows and their calves up to six months of age
    • 10 hogs
    • 20 head of sheep
So, y'know, if you're declaring bankruptcy in Oklahoma go borrow money to buy a bunch of sheep and a tractor first, then declare bankruptcy. I actually looked this up a while back because about fifteen years ago I was in a position in Oklahoma where I might wind up declaring bankruptcy, and considered if I could buy sheep and then instantly resell them to keep some of my money which seemed absurd but was totally legal. I wound up managing the situation without it though because lenders are quite often willing to work with you and claim only a portion of what they're owed rather than see you declare bankruptcy and claim nothing.

Business Bankruptcy is also totally different from individuals declaring bankruptcy and even more complicated and ridiculous.
However it's quite possible to borrow to get a bunch of stuff, declare bankruptcy, and keep it all if you know what you're doing and are willing to play the legal game.
 
You do, however, utterly trash your credit score when you declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy; essentially forfeiting your ability to take out any sort of loan in the future. You also, I'm given to understand, can lose everything else you own that might be of any value which could be sold off; leaving you with basically nothing.
First, right after college is when someone owns the least amount of stuff, which is why it is so valuable, and you have your parents to fall back on. Second, they definitely have exceptions for a number of things, depending on state. This frequently includes a car/motor vehicle up to a certain amount, and basic things like necessities. The only thing of value one might lose is their laptop, and that may or may not be considered under exemptions.

Third, as for credit scores, first credit isn't worth tens of thousands of dollars. It's worth something, but not nearly that much. But worse, the purpose of a credit score is to separate the good bets from the bad. The problem is that the appeal of legally leaving debts behind will be so big, that so many people will have just this one exception on otherwise good credit that credit companies won't care. Remember, the point of a credit score isn't to determine if your a good person, it's a prediction of likelihood to repay stuff in the future. Given that what I'm talking about would have some, but not large, correlation with future likelihood to repay, it wouldn't be paid attention to by companies too much.

You are aware that mortgages are written down or written off all the time right? Or debts sold for dimes on the dollar to debt collections. Or all the more convoluted forms of debt shrinkage with speculative investments.

You might have heard of the housing market collapse that happened for a number of reason, but included the government instructing banks to give loans to people they would not normally give them to. When that bubble burst, a lot of banks wrote off those loans.
The mortgages that were written off very much aren't those where people are well off and likely to pay. Most of the mortgages were written off by the bank repossessing the home, or by renegotiating to try to get as much value as possible. Some were given up on, because there was no profit to be made, but that usually means that the house itself is near worthless too. So I don't think you really have a point here. Actually, you may have proved my point! When people weren't able to pay what they owed, the economy did collapse, hence the economy does rely on people paying what they owe, or there being consequences.

In contrast to a bank forgiving a mortgage, forgiving student loan debt is the most bullshit proposal going around now. The average person with a college degree will earn well over 100k eventually (yes, even with a worthless degree), and is definitely able to pay off their loans. If they aren't, there are countless ways to get loan forgiveness as well, by being permanently disabled to income driven repayment plans to working in the public sector. So any student loan forgiveness program is just a handout to America's future wealthy.
 
Also, bankruptcy is not forgiveness. Bankruptcy involves losing what got you into debt in the first place. But we can't do that for colleges. Hence the only options are the following for college loans: legally guaranteed loans, no loans, or free college. Because the only thing in the world that keeps loans available at any sorta interest rate is that they are legally guaranteed. Otherwise tell me what is people graduating then going through bankruptcy? It's just the logical option that saves tens of thousands of dollars, as you can't lose a degree in bankruptcy.

Well, the better answer is to simply not allow straight out of college people to commit bankruptcy.

You don't have to permanently restrict the possibility of people declaring bankruptcy on student loans in order to prevent people from committing bankruptcy.

Just saying you can't declare bankruptcy on student loans in the first five years would fix a lot of the problems.

The problem is that the appeal of legally leaving debts behind will be so big, that so many people will have just this one exception on otherwise good credit that credit companies won't care.

You know nothing about how credit approval works.

You can get away with outrageous debt to income with a high enough credit score, and you can have difficulty getting basic loans even with a 6 figure income if your credit score is bad.

The mortgages that were written off very much aren't those where people are well off and likely to pay. Most of the mortgages were written off by the bank repossessing the home, or by renegotiating to try to get as much value as possible. Some were given up on, because there was no profit to be made, but that usually means that the house itself is near worthless too. So I don't think you really have a point here. Actually, you may have proved my point! When people weren't able to pay what they owed, the economy did collapse, hence the economy does rely on people paying what they owe, or there being consequences.

In contrast to a bank forgiving a mortgage, forgiving student loan debt is the most bullshit proposal going around now. The average person with a college degree will earn well over 100k eventually (yes, even with a worthless degree), and is definitely able to pay off their loans. If they aren't, there are countless ways to get loan forgiveness as well, by being permanently disabled to income driven repayment plans to working in the public sector. So any student loan forgiveness program is just a handout to America's future wealthy.

The problem was banks pushing mortgages they knew people couldn't repay.* Similar things are happening again.

The bolded is worthless because income averages are almost always extremely misleading, don't trust anyone who isn't using medians. Even then that average looks too high, I'm extremely skeptical about America seeing that level of economic growth, and its definitely not inflation adjusted.

Though honestly, if you genuinely believe that statistic is actually applicable to America's current economic outlook... I'm stunned.

*Its a lot more complicated than that, really; but essentially the banks actively created and encouraged the growth of a speculative housing market with easy credit, and then they sold excessively risky mortgages as investments.
 
In contrast to a bank forgiving a mortgage, forgiving student loan debt is the most bullshit proposal going around now. The average person with a college degree will earn well over 100k eventually (yes, even with a worthless degree), and is definitely able to pay off their loans. If they aren't, there are countless ways to get loan forgiveness as well, by being permanently disabled to income driven repayment plans to working in the public sector. So any student loan forgiveness program is just a handout to America's future wealthy.

Actually, it really depends. Income driven repayment programs are only available for federal loans, which, while that’s generally the case for newer borrowers, doesn’t really help those with the truly massive debt loads -those tend to be private because the feds generally have a cap. Or at least had when I borrowed. And the “public service” program that was supposed to wipe debt away, again, only covers federal loans, and it’s so fucked up that very few people were and a
are able to even take advantage of it


The truth is, this whole thing is a giant clusterfuck with no easy answers. But the biggest thing to focus on is cracking down on university costs that result in absurd loans to begin with.
 
Well, the better answer is to simply not allow straight out of college people to commit bankruptcy.

You don't have to permanently restrict the possibility of people declaring bankruptcy on student loans in order to prevent people from committing bankruptcy.

Just saying you can't declare bankruptcy on student loans in the first five years would fix a lot of the problems.
Then they just don't get a job for X number of years (as is already happening anyway), live with their parents, and declare bankruptcy then. Worse, you now incentivize this behavior, because now there 10000s reasons not to get a job.

The bolded is worthless because income averages are almost always extremely misleading, don't trust anyone who isn't using medians. Even then that average looks too high, I'm extremely skeptical about America seeing that level of economic growth, and its definitely not inflation adjusted.

Though honestly, if you genuinely believe that statistic is actually applicable to America's current economic outlook... I'm stunned.
As for this, the average comes from the American community survey, which caps income figures at 300k to both not skew data and also to preserve privacy. So yes, average figures here are pretty good, as its actually well above 100k.

As for it being unapplicable, your right. It actually underestimates what people will earn in the future, as real wages increase.
The problem was banks pushing mortgages they knew people couldn't repay.* Similar things are happening again.

...

*Its a lot more complicated than that, really; but essentially the banks actively created and encouraged the growth of a speculative housing market with easy credit, and then they sold excessively risky mortgages as investments.

The thing was, it wasn't the banks that did this. It was the government that did this. They thought they could make everything better by ensuring everyone had a house. This is what lead to the problem then. Also, people very much can repay loans if they get a job.


Actually, it really depends. Income driven repayment programs are only available for federal loans, which, while that’s generally the case for newer borrowers, doesn’t really help those with the truly massive debt loads -those tend to be private because the feds generally have a cap. Or at least had when I borrowed. And the “public service” program that was supposed to wipe debt away, again, only covers federal loans, and it’s so fucked up that very few people were and a
are able to even take advantage of it
Don't get me wrong, I don't like the system, but student loan forgiveness isn't the solution. The best way is for people to literally invest in other's education and get a percentage payoff of future earnings, as it nicely aligns incentives.

The truth is, this whole thing is a giant clusterfuck with no easy answers. But the biggest thing to focus on is cracking down on university costs that result in absurd loans to begin with.
See, this is backwards. It's the loans and easy credit that allow the University to charge high prices. If there wasn't a college loan system with such easy credit, the University's couldn't charge such high prices. In pure econ terms, the college loans make students insensitive to price. That's a huge problem.
 
After watching one of my children struggle with a shit ton of student debt I've formulated some thoughts on this. It is clear that the schools, banks, government and employees of same have conspired to perpetuate a fraud on the American public. Every campus has a "financial aid" office manned by people who's job is to get student signatures on loan documents that will keep the cycle funded. These people are very good at telling students "just sign here and you'll have all the money you need to keep taking classes, drinking beer etc." The students in question don't know enough to see the trap they're in.

I've maintained for years that this system is a method for turning the future income of college students into current earnings for University staff. My solution is simple: make the people who ended up with the money pay it back.
 
Perhaps a reasonable compromise would be cancelling all interest on student loans, both now and in the future. Ignoring the moral issues with usury, the justification for charging interest on loans has always been to cover the risk factor of lending money. But there is no risk factor in most student loans. The federal government will have its money back; the only exceptions are when you have rendered sufficient services for it that it believes these to be adequate substitutes for monetary repayment.
 
The real problem there is that a lot of people don't actually understand why their degree is valued in the workplace, and a lot of people aim for degrees that aren't actually valued where they want to work.
For most people, it comes down to everyone and their uncle telling them that they had to have one in order to get a decent-paying job, and unfortunately, there's actually some truth to that. Even in jobs where a degree would not be necessary, it's just an easy way to eliminate job candidates. Now that the market is saturated, it's switched to arbitrary GPA cut-offs.

As for myself, I wanted to be an aerospace engineer and design the next space shuttle or Blackbird. Found out there was no such degree offered at any university in my state, and was convinced that pursuing a degree in mechanical engineering would be almost as good, and actually leave my options open to pursue other opportunities that might be more available. Then I got a job as a lab tech my senior year, and got talked into pursuing a masters degree, because I could use the work I was doing for my boss anyway for my thesis, have my tuition paid for because I would be a GRA, and have a shot at getting a higher GPA than I managed to get with my undergrad. Then the funding for the lab dried up thanks to the recession and the lab closed. But I am nothing if not stubborn, and just very slowly finished up my degree. And now I've found that my master's degree really doesn't count for anything, because even entry-level jobs will pass me over. Engineering is a pretty competitive field, and I guess I'm just not all that competitive or something. Farts if I know - no one will ever tell me.
 
Don't get me wrong, I don't like the system, but student loan forgiveness isn't the solution. The best way is for people to literally invest in other's education and get a percentage payoff of future earnings, as it nicely aligns incentives.


See, this is backwards. It's the loans and easy credit that allow the University to charge high prices. If there wasn't a college loan system with such easy credit, the University's couldn't charge such high prices. In pure econ terms, the college loans make students insensitive to price. That's a huge problem.

I agree that forgiveness isn’t the solution. The whole “investing in earnings” proposal is one that has been bandied about over the years and it isn’t really a bad one, tbh.

And yes, I know the loans are the source of the ability to make those tuition hikes, but at the same time, schools waste their money on stupid shit as well. Hence why I’m in favor of cracking down on the loan market but also on the schools themselves. Economically the loans are a huge part, but schools like Harvard also come up with ridiculous aid packages on their own (basically designed to sort out the ‘riff-raff’) so applying pressure to them requires other approaches as well.
 
One other oddity worth noting is that bankruptcy often improves your credit. No really. Most people who have their BK fall off their credit record are appalled to see their credit drop 40-50 points because they no longer have a Bankruptcy on it.

Oddly enough you'll usually get a raft of credit card offers as soon as you finish filing for bankruptcy as well. Recent bankruptcy filers are highly attractive because they can't file for bankruptcy again for eight years (Chapter 7, this varies quite a bit by which chapter and of course all the states meddle with the numbers). This makes loans to them, ironically, more secure.


Getting back to the student debt, one other thing I think the country really needs is more appreciation for Trade Schools and skilled trades in general. Plumbers, HVAC, welders, carpenters, masons, all these kinds of jobs can't be outsourced to other countries and are vital to keeping the country's infrastructure intact. I can recall a high school teacher in California addressing the class with sneering contempt and a fake Okie accent as he told us "And if you can't even graduate high school what do you do? Oh, I'm a contractor!"

But these distasteful contractors are vital to the nation and not paid poorly either, and now we have a dearth of them thanks to teachers like that and enormous social pressure against taking to those fields. We also have a lot of them pushing the idea that skilled trades are all thieves, planning to jack up the price of parts 800,000% (this last part is actually true but it's because most of the cost of, say, fixing your pipes or patching a leaking roof is in the labor. The two feet of pipe and one coupling or the bottle of pooky he used isn't expensive. The four hours of hard labor and mental calculation on how to make it up to code by a skilled craftsmen is the expensive part.)

I've seen small amounts of pushback here and there against the attitude against the skilled trades but not nearly what I think is sufficient.
 
Getting back to the student debt, one other thing I think the country really needs is more appreciation for Trade Schools and skilled trades in general. Plumbers, HVAC, welders, carpenters, masons, all these kinds of jobs can't be outsourced to other countries and are vital to keeping the country's infrastructure intact. I can recall a high school teacher in California addressing the class with sneering contempt and a fake Okie accent as he told us "And if you can't even graduate high school what do you do? Oh, I'm a contractor!"

But these distasteful contractors are vital to the nation and not paid poorly either, and now we have a dearth of them thanks to teachers like that and enormous social pressure against taking to those fields. We also have a lot of them pushing the idea that skilled trades are all thieves, planning to jack up the price of parts 800,000% (this last part is actually true but it's because most of the cost of, say, fixing your pipes or patching a leaking roof is in the labor. The two feet of pipe and one coupling or the bottle of pooky he used isn't expensive. The four hours of hard labor and mental calculation on how to make it up to code by a skilled craftsmen is the expensive part.)

I've seen small amounts of pushback here and there against the attitude against the skilled trades but not nearly what I think is sufficient.

I think just about everyone can agree on that.

On that note, I think its partly because trade jobs don't tend to get paid a lot by companies. However, its a lot easier to start a small business as a skilled trade than it is for a lot of other things, and as a general rule, what you can make as a SBO (small business owner) is about 3 times what you would get paid as a job, per hour.

So if an experienced plumber is getting paid $22 an hour working for a plumbing company, he could probably make $66 an hour working for himself.

Of course, lets say that due to having less work, he only gets 28 hours a week instead of 40. As long as his average weekly business expenses are less than $968, he'll be effectively getting a raise to work less.

The SBO potential is something that a lot of people don't recognize about trades.

Of course, you have to be fairly competent and hard working to pull it off successful, and willing to take risks. Not everyone is.

Personally, one of my biggest regrets was not focusing more on learning plumbing and electrical skills from my dad when I could. I say that as a junior 4.0 accounting student who already has an internship in accounting. Plumbing and electrical skills aren't just going to be valuable from an SBO aspect, but valuable because of the rapid increasing shortage of workers in such industries is going to lead to cost increases.
 
One other oddity worth noting is that bankruptcy often improves your credit. No really. Most people who have their BK fall off their credit record are appalled to see their credit drop 40-50 points because they no longer have a Bankruptcy on it.

They want to extend you usurious credit and get you on the interest treadmill. The recently bankrupt have no other payments to make by definition. They don't care about the risk of 'loosing the principle' they want the recurring payments forever and ever.
 
Every campus has a "financial aid" office manned by people who's job is to get student signatures on loan documents that will keep the cycle funded. These people are very good at telling students "just sign here and you'll have all the money you need to keep taking classes, drinking beer etc." The students in question don't know enough to see the trap they're in.
I'd agree with this, with the added problem as others have mentioned that there's an entire complex within public schooling most of those students have in their background about the necessity and glory of attending college (and not providing nearly enough of the proper tools universally enough to see those students sit down and make a more rational cost-benefit kind of calculation). Which is where it gets messy, because while I'd still say those folks took out the loans and so have some responsibility for them, this is one instance where 'society' and the way teachers, employers, administrators and politicians all talked-up college degrees definitely had impact on the decision-making...And college administrations have definitely benefitted from rising attendance-rates alongside skyrocketing tuition.

On tangential but related note, some of the multi-billion dollar university endowments existing alongside universities bilking students for all they're worth then asking them for donations and time to benefit the university is...some shit if I've ever seen it.
 
The entire post secondary system has to be reworked.

1) Ideally most people would not go to university, and those that did would receive a free ride via a scholarship program.
2) The system should be structured to eliminate the influence of the small number of elite schools that currently dominate it.
3) The system should be structured to make it attractive for people to attend universities in their region
 
You can, however, find yourself with a worthless degree. Either because it's in something like Gender Studies, or because it's become outdated; something that happens quickly with degrees involving computer systems.
I think the assumption here was that the person who took tens of thousands in student loans spent it on a degree worth a damn. Big ask I know but hey, what can you do?
So what economic theory do you follow?
The answer to this should generally be none in my opinion. Because at this point its more like joining clubs than they are what economic principles you personally ascribe to. Capitalism is as much a Buzz word as Socilaism or anything else.
 
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One other oddity worth noting is that bankruptcy often improves your credit. No really. Most people who have their BK fall off their credit record are appalled to see their credit drop 40-50 points because they no longer have a Bankruptcy on it.

Oddly enough you'll usually get a raft of credit card offers as soon as you finish filing for bankruptcy as well. Recent bankruptcy filers are highly attractive because they can't file for bankruptcy again for eight years (Chapter 7, this varies quite a bit by which chapter and of course all the states meddle with the numbers). This makes loans to them, ironically, more secure.


Getting back to the student debt, one other thing I think the country really needs is more appreciation for Trade Schools and skilled trades in general. Plumbers, HVAC, welders, carpenters, masons, all these kinds of jobs can't be outsourced to other countries and are vital to keeping the country's infrastructure intact. I can recall a high school teacher in California addressing the class with sneering contempt and a fake Okie accent as he told us "And if you can't even graduate high school what do you do? Oh, I'm a contractor!"

But these distasteful contractors are vital to the nation and not paid poorly either, and now we have a dearth of them thanks to teachers like that and enormous social pressure against taking to those fields. We also have a lot of them pushing the idea that skilled trades are all thieves, planning to jack up the price of parts 800,000% (this last part is actually true but it's because most of the cost of, say, fixing your pipes or patching a leaking roof is in the labor. The two feet of pipe and one coupling or the bottle of pooky he used isn't expensive. The four hours of hard labor and mental calculation on how to make it up to code by a skilled craftsmen is the expensive part.)

I've seen small amounts of pushback here and there against the attitude against the skilled trades but not nearly what I think is sufficient.
I grew up and went to school in a North GA county. Well, North Metro Atl..we had multiple trade classes in my highschool.
Carpentry, Auto, welding, even had a nursing class.

They were also popular classes a lot of people did.
Because it's the rural or small town south
 
The entire post secondary system has to be reworked.

1) Ideally most people would not go to university, and those that did would receive a free ride via a scholarship program.
2) The system should be structured to eliminate the influence of the small number of elite schools that currently dominate it.
3) The system should be structured to make it attractive for people to attend universities in their region

1) The only way you can accomplish this at this point is through deep reform. A good example would be to make it illegal to discriminate on the basis of education level when the degree is not necessary for the job.

2) This is just silly. The elite schools provide better outcomes in general (with some caveats), and they allow America to brain drain other nations. Also, the vast majority of people are not going to elite schools.

3) It already is, many states offer significant financial incentives for a person to attend in state. Some states basically give all average or better students free college if they attend in state. The problem is that in a lot of cases there's also a perception that you have to attend your dream college.
 

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