Some late 1890s Asian PoDs

[WolfBear]

1. I know that it's possible for the Philippines to become independent in 1898-1899 if an anti-imperialist US President is in the Oval Office, but could the Philippine Revolution of 1896-1897 have ever actually succeeded, especially if it would have had a powerful foreign sponsor such as Germany and/or Japan?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_Revolution

2. If there is no Spanish-American War, is there still going to be an Open Door Policy towards China or is China going to get partitioned by the West + Russia + Japan instead?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Door_Policy

Any thoughts on this? @TheRomanSlayer @History Learner @stevep @Skallagrim @Zyobot

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

No Spanish-American War would require that the USS Maine not enter Havana Harbor, leading to the accident that led to the conflict in the first place.

Japan would be more likely to be the sponsor of the Philippine Revolution than Germany, though the attempt to ship numerous amounts of Murata rifles to Filipino rebels ended in a disaster because of the typhoon. Have the shipment occur on a different time, plus avoid the typhoons, and you'd have a different outcome.

 

[WolfBear]

No Spanish-American War would require that the USS Maine not enter Havana Harbor, leading to the accident that led to the conflict in the first place.

Japan would be more likely to be the sponsor of the Philippine Revolution than Germany, though the attempt to ship numerous amounts of Murata rifles to Filipino rebels ended in a disaster because of the typhoon. Have the shipment occur on a different time, plus avoid the typhoons, and you'd have a different outcome.

Yep. It would require the USS Maine to explode 2+ weeks earlier, before it enters Havana Harbor.

Interesting.

Also, what about my thread here?

https://www.the-sietch.com/index.php?threads/if-russia-doesnt-go-communist-in-1917-is-japan-still-going-to-behave-aggressively-towards-china-in-the-1930s.9383/

 

[stevep]

1. I know that it's possible for the Philippines to become independent in 1898-1899 if an anti-imperialist US President is in the Oval Office, but could the Philippine Revolution of 1896-1897 have ever actually succeeded, especially if it would have had a powerful foreign sponsor such as Germany and/or Japan?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_Revolution

2. If there is no Spanish-American War, is there still going to be an Open Door Policy towards China or is China going to get partitioned by the West + Russia + Japan instead?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Door_Policy

Any thoughts on this? @TheRomanSlayer @History Learner @stevep @Skallagrim @Zyobot

Would agree with possibilities at the an independent Philippines, either from a less imperialist US President at the time, the Philippines not getting attacked during the war or simply no war.

On the 2nd point I think that the US was already leaning towards if not committed to an open door in China by that stage as is likely to be so for a similar reason to Britain pushing that policy. If there was a partition of China, which is likely to be expensive because of the costs of occupation and government, then since everybody other than the UK was protectionists and the US is unlikely to have a share in the partition it would be frozen out of China other than what would be governed by Britain. Similarly Britain wanted an unpartitioned China because while we would get the richest region - basically the Yangtze valley - it would have to govern it and it would have to overcome tariffs elsewhere.

 

[WolfBear]

Would agree with possibilities at the an independent Philippines, either from a less imperialist US President at the time, the Philippines not getting attacked during the war or simply no war.

On the 2nd point I think that the US was already leaning towards if not committed to an open door in China by that stage as is likely to be so for a similar reason to Britain pushing that policy. If there was a partition of China, which is likely to be expensive because of the costs of occupation and government, then since everybody other than the UK was protectionists and the US is unlikely to have a share in the partition it would be frozen out of China other than what would be governed by Britain. Similarly Britain wanted an unpartitioned China because while we would get the richest region - basically the Yangtze valley - it would have to govern it and it would have to overcome tariffs elsewhere.

What about having Japan and/or Germany aggressively support the Filipino separatists back in 1896-1897?

Interesting about China. In the event of a partition, I would presume that the US would get nothing, right?

 

[stevep]

What about having Japan and/or Germany aggressively support the Filipino separatists back in 1896-1897?

Interesting about China. In the event of a partition, I would presume that the US would get nothing, right?

Well OTL Germany and Japan weren't the best of friends. Wilhelm had made clear his hostility towards east Asians on racial terms and also after Japan defeated China in their 1895 war it was Germany that led the coalition with France and Russia to deny Japan some of the fruits of their victory. You would probably have to change that. Plus at the time while it was interested in expanding its own power and influence there was a degree of support of other Asians against colonialism while German is more likely to want to expand its own control over the Philippines so there would be tension there.

Well it didn't seem to have a sphere of influence established as other nations did at the time so probably. Plus the US is likely to criticize such a partition so its unlikely to be in a position to claim a chunk itself.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Japan would be the most ideal candidate to support the Filipino rebels.

Although much of the educated Filipino elites might not mind having Germany take over from Spain, I think that the German leadership would be hard pressed to support them, as they don't have any colonies of their own in the same area as the Philippines yet.

You would need to get the Russians to negotiate with Japan on where their spheres of influence would lie in NE Asia. In fact, without the RJW, you'd probably have the Russians turn Manchuria into their own playground, while they'd let Japan have Korea.

 

[WolfBear]

Japan would be the most ideal candidate to support the Filipino rebels.

Although much of the educated Filipino elites might not mind having Germany take over from Spain, I think that the German leadership would be hard pressed to support them, as they don't have any colonies of their own in the same area as the Philippines yet.

You would need to get the Russians to negotiate with Japan on where their spheres of influence would lie in NE Asia. In fact, without the RJW, you'd probably have the Russians turn Manchuria into their own playground, while they'd let Japan have Korea.

Can Russia outright annex Manchuria in this TL? Also, Germany acquired its Chinese concessions in 1900, right? So, it's still too early in the game for this.

What about having France support the Filipino rebels from French Indochina? Or even Britain from Malaya and Singapore?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Britain and France were probably too busy with managing their own colonies, and even if they would support the Filipino rebels, what would they gain from this endeavor? Other than pissing the Spanish off for no good reason?

 

[WolfBear]

Britain and France were probably too busy with managing their own colonies, and even if they would support the Filipino rebels, what would they gain from this endeavor? Other than pissing the Spanish off for no good reason?

What about Russia? Too far away?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

What about Russia? Too far away?

Not really interested, and Russo-Philippine relations in the 19th century is almost non-existent.

 

[WolfBear]

Not really interested, and Russo-Philippine relations in the 19th century is almost non-existent.

Would be a great naval base for the Russian Pacific Fleet, though, no?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

If you really want a Russian Philippines scenario, I’d be happy to create that scenario. That was one major alternate history project that I wrote back when I was still active on AH.com.

 

[WolfBear]

If you really want a Russian Philippines scenario, I’d be happy to create that scenario. That was one major alternate history project that I wrote back when I was still active on AH.com.

Please do!