Russia supports Hungarian independence in 1848-1849

[WolfBear]

What if Russian Tsar Nicholas I would have concluded that Austria is likely to be an ungrateful friend to Russia and that it's thus in Russia's best interests to support Hungarian independence in 1848-1849? What would the effects of this have been? Obviously the Crimean War might still occur on schedule, but would Austria have used the Crimean War as an opportunity to try reconquering Hungary by force in this TL? And would Austria have actually succeeded in doing this? And if Russia loses control of its Hungarian puppet/satellite state, might it successfully demand compensation elsewhere, such as in Wallachia and Moldavia (the future Romanian Old Kingdom territories)? These territories were already occupied by Russia in the early and mid-19th century, after all.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

 

[WolfBear]

Another effect worth mentioning: If Russia liberates Hungary in 1848-1849, then Russia will also annex Galicia for itself. If this arrangement will actually permanently hold, then this would likely mean that Ukrainian nationalism will either be permanently strangled in its cradle or at least develop in a much more pro-Russian direction since here there will be no safe haven for Ukrainian nationalism to evolve in an anti-Russian direction. Meanwhile, in Galicia itself, Russia could aggressively support the Russophiles:

Galician Russophilia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russophiles

www.encyclopediaofukraine.com

With Russian governmental support starting from 1848-1849, the Russophiles in Galicia should eventually triumph, especially if anti-Russian Ukrainian nationalists in Galicia are aggressively suppressed just like they were in the rest of Ukraine under Tsarist Russian rule.

 

[Atarlost]

Stabbing nations in the back for provocations that won't happen for half a century is incredibly bad for a nation's diplomatic standing. This has consequences. Russia would become a pariah state at best. At worst Russia is destroyed by a mass coalition like the Napoleon's empire. An army that doesn't get suckered into going after Moscow can grab vast swathes of Ukraine in a campaign season and sit on it and I'm pretty sure Russia without Ukraine is not agriculturally self sufficient before modern agriculture.

 

[PsihoKekec]

You would need Nicholas I to drop dead before 1848 though, as the man was dead set against any kind of revolution, which honestly would be good for Russia, as Alexander II was better ruler, but even he would need a reason for such drastic course of action.

But let's say this somehow comes into being, would Hungary be able to reconquer Croatia? Croat support under ban Jelačić was crucial in fending off the Hungarians OTL and his ultimate goal was Croatian independence although autonomy under Austria was the more immediate goalpost. Independence of Croatia would be beneficial to Russia as it would weaken Austria and it would make Hungary more reliant on Russia.

 

[WolfBear]

You would need Nicholas I to drop dead before 1848 though, as the man was dead set against any kind of revolution, which honestly would be good for Russia, as Alexander II was better ruler, but even he would need a reason for such drastic course of action.

But let's say this somehow comes into being, would Hungary be able to reconquer Croatia? Croat support under ban Jelačić was crucial in fending off the Hungarians OTL and his ultimate goal was Croatian independence although autonomy under Austria was the more immediate goalpost. Independence of Croatia would be beneficial to Russia as it would weaken Austria and it would make Hungary more reliant on Russia.

OK, let's have Nicholas I die in 1847 and Alexander II come to power earlier and intervene for humanitarian reasons. So, we see an independent Croatia and an independent Hungary. Would both of them be Russian satellite states? And what exactly would happen afterwards, such as during the Crimean War?

 

[WolfBear]

Stabbing nations in the back for provocations that won't happen for half a century is incredibly bad for a nation's diplomatic standing. This has consequences. Russia would become a pariah state at best. At worst Russia is destroyed by a mass coalition like the Napoleon's empire. An army that doesn't get suckered into going after Moscow can grab vast swathes of Ukraine in a campaign season and sit on it and I'm pretty sure Russia without Ukraine is not agriculturally self sufficient before modern agriculture.

What about having Russia demand Galicia from Austria as compensation for having it crush the Hungarians on Austria's behalf?

 

[Atarlost]

What about having Russia demand Galicia from Austria as compensation for having it crush the Hungarians on Austria's behalf?

The Austrians don't want either end of that deal. That's like demanding you give me your daughter for murdering your wife.

 

[WolfBear]

The Austrians don't want either end of that deal. That's like demanding you give me your daughter for murdering your wife.

The idea of territorial concessions for help is not a radical idea. Piedmont-Sardinia gave up Nice and Savoy to France a decade later in exchange for French help in achieving Italian unification, after all.

 

[WolfBear]

@Atarlost What about having Russia crush the Hungarians for Austria, make no territorial demands at Austria's expense, but nevertheless demand that Austria approve of Russia's annexation of Moldavia while Wallachia gets turned into a nominally independent Russian puppet/satellite state?

 

[Atarlost]

@WolfBear
The problem is that what you're proposing isn't help. Russia crushing the Hungarians isn't in Austrian interests any more than France crushing the Irish would be. It weakens half the empire directly by weakening one of the kingdoms and makes the dual monarchy look weak beyond that because they can't handle their own vassals and treacherous because they invited foreigners to humble their vassals.

The Hapsburgs might approve of Russia annexing Moldova and puppeting Walachia, but it has to be in exchange for something the Hapsburgs would actually want.

 

[WolfBear]

@WolfBear
The problem is that what you're proposing isn't help. Russia crushing the Hungarians isn't in Austrian interests any more than France crushing the Irish would be. It weakens half the empire directly by weakening one of the kingdoms and makes the dual monarchy look weak beyond that because they can't handle their own vassals and treacherous because they invited foreigners to humble their vassals.

The Hapsburgs might approve of Russia annexing Moldova and puppeting Walachia, but it has to be in exchange for something the Hapsburgs would actually want.

The Hapsburgs did, in fact, approve of Russia crushing the Hungarians in 1848-1849 in real life, no?

History of the Russian Empire Nicholas 1. The Russian Empire during the reign of Nicholas I

goaravetisyan.ru

 

[raharris1973]

Stabbing nations in the back for provocations that won't happen for half a century is incredibly bad for a nation's diplomatic standing. This has consequences. Russia would become a pariah state at best. At worst Russia is destroyed by a mass coalition like the Napoleon's empire. An army that doesn't get suckered into going after Moscow can grab vast swathes of Ukraine in a campaign season and sit on it and I'm pretty sure Russia without Ukraine is not agriculturally self sufficient before modern agriculture.

This guy thinks "instant karma is gonna get ya", but it doesn't always come on time. I really don't know who a realistic Ukraine-occupying coalition would be in this era.

 

[Atarlost]

This guy thinks "instant karma is gonna get ya", but it doesn't always come on time. I really don't know who a realistic Ukraine-occupying coalition would be in this era.

No, I reckon that some further provocation no later than the one that caused the Crimean War results in a broader coalition against Russia with wider war aims. If it's Crimea, the Brits sponsor the Prussians to go through Russian Poland into Ukraine and the Finns to pursue independence while the OTL coalition sans Austria fight in Crimea and the Austrians either retake Hungary or take the southern half of the push through Russian Poland into Ukraine.

Just 14-15 years OTL after the proposed divergence the Russians manage to get the English, French, Austrians, and Ottomans allied against them in the aforementioned Crimean War and only Greece stood with them. It's not like they have a stable network of allies they need to alienate before they can get into trouble.

 

[WolfBear]

No, I reckon that some further provocation no later than the one that caused the Crimean War results in a broader coalition against Russia with wider war aims. If it's Crimea, the Brits sponsor the Prussians to go through Russian Poland into Ukraine and the Finns to pursue independence while the OTL coalition sans Austria fight in Crimea and the Austrians either retake Hungary or take the southern half of the push through Russian Poland into Ukraine.

Just 14-15 years OTL after the proposed divergence the Russians manage to get the English, French, Austrians, and Ottomans allied against them in the aforementioned Crimean War and only Greece stood with them. It's not like they have a stable network of allies they need to alienate before they can get into trouble.

But why exactly would the Prussians actually want to piss off the Russians at this point in time? Please remember that the Prussians and Russians were good friends during this time. Prussia didn't want Ukraine. AFAIK, it already had enough agricultural land of its own.

 

[Atarlost]

But why exactly would the Prussians actually want to piss off the Russians at this point in time? Please remember that the Prussians and Russians were good friends during this time. Prussia didn't want Ukraine. AFAIK, it already had enough agricultural land of its own.

Nations don't have friends. They have interests. And it's not in Prussia's interest to open themselves up to being stabbed in the back like Austria. It is in their interest to have the United Kingdom subsidize their military.

 

[WolfBear]

Nations don't have friends. They have interests. And it's not in Prussia's interest to open themselves up to being stabbed in the back like Austria. It is in their interest to have the United Kingdom subsidize their military.

In order to get an independent Ukraine, though, Prussia will also have to support an independent Poland if it itself wants to avoid getting Polonized in the long(er)-run.

 

[Atarlost]

In order to get an independent Ukraine, though, Prussia will also have to support an independent Poland if it itself wants to avoid getting Polonized in the long(er)-run.

Why? What's wrong with calling Russian Poland part of Ukraine or sticking Austria with most of it if there's too much to absorb since they are actually set up to handle a multi-ethnic empire.

 

[WolfBear]

Why? What's wrong with calling Russian Poland part of Ukraine or sticking Austria with most of it if there's too much to absorb since they are actually set up to handle a multi-ethnic empire.

Do the Austrians actually want it? And are the Austrians also going to reconquer Hungary? Because otherwise their borders will be a bit messy.

 

[Atarlost]

Do the Austrians actually want it? And are the Austrians also going to reconquer Hungary? Because otherwise their borders will be a bit messy.

If the Austrians don't want it the new Ukrainian buffer state will take it and pretend to like it. And why wouldn't Austria want to reconquer Hungary? The Emperor of Austria is the rightful King of Hungary.

 

[WolfBear]

If the Austrians don't want it the new Ukrainian buffer state will take it and pretend to like it. And why wouldn't Austria want to reconquer Hungary? The Emperor of Austria is the rightful King of Hungary.

What happens to Belarus?