Russia goes for all of Novorossiya in 2014

[WolfBear]

What if Russia would have went for all of Novorossiya in 2014? I mean from Kharkiv all of the way to Odessa. This would have, of course, required a direct Russian invasion of Ukraine eight years earlier than in real life because outside of Crimea and the Donbass, Russia could not muster sufficient indigenous separatists to accomplish this task.

FWIW, I myself personally think that Russia would be hit with 2022-style Western sanctions in 2014, when Russia would be less prepared for this, and also that a huge part (possibly between 1/3 and 1/2) of Novorossiya's population would have moved to either unoccupied Ukraine or to the EU rather than stay in Novorossiya under Russian rule. I do not think that there would have been a sizable insurgency in Novorossiya, but I also think that due to the mass emigration from it, Russia's value from acquiring Novorossiya would have been significantly diminished because it would have lost access to a lot of Novorossiya's human capital. The only places where I think that most people would have stayed would have been Crimea and the Donbass, and in this TL, Russia won't be able to invest as much in them as it could in real life because it would also have to spend money investing in the rest of Novorossiya.

Anyway, what do you personally think about this? FWIW, it appears that Russia needed to do a lot of persuading of Novorossiyans outside of Crimea and the Donbass about its motives being honorable, et cetera even back in 2014:

Press releases and reports - The views and opinions of South-Eastern regions residents of Ukraine: April 2014

www.kiis.com.ua

 

[ATP]

What if Russia would have went for all of Novorossiya in 2014? I mean from Kharkiv all of the way to Odessa. This would have, of course, required a direct Russian invasion of Ukraine eight years earlier than in real life because outside of Crimea and the Donbass, Russia could not muster sufficient indigenous separatists to accomplish this task.

FWIW, I myself personally think that Russia would be hit with 2022-style Western sanctions in 2014, when Russia would be less prepared for this, and also that a huge part (possibly between 1/3 and 1/2) of Novorossiya's population would have moved to either unoccupied Ukraine or to the EU rather than stay in Novorossiya under Russian rule. I do not think that there would have been a sizable insurgency in Novorossiya, but I also think that due to the mass emigration from it, Russia's value from acquiring Novorossiya would have been significantly diminished because it would have lost access to a lot of Novorossiya's human capital. The only places where I think that most people would have stayed would have been Crimea and the Donbass, and in this TL, Russia won't be able to invest as much in them as it could in real life because it would also have to spend money investing in the rest of Novorossiya.

Anyway, what do you personally think about this? FWIW, it appears that Russia needed to do a lot of persuading of Novorossiyans outside of Crimea and the Donbass about its motives being honorable, et cetera even back in 2014:

Press releases and reports - The views and opinions of South-Eastern regions residents of Ukraine: April 2014

www.kiis.com.ua

Possible,and there would be no such sanctions,both Obama and Merkel was Moscov friendly.In such scenario,Putin could take Kiev now.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

But Russia in this case is not well prepared for dealing with sanctions, like now.

 

[WolfBear]

Possible,and there would be no such sanctions,both Obama and Merkel was Moscov friendly.In such scenario,Putin could take Kiev now.

Highly unlikely. Both Obama and Merkel would have been highly alienated by Putin had he done something like this. You gotta keep in mind that Scholz and Macron were also pretty Putin-friendly until late February 2022, but even they subsequently felt that Putin has acted out of line.

But Russia in this case is not well prepared for dealing with sanctions, like now.

Yep.

 

[ATP]

Highly unlikely. Both Obama and Merkel would have been highly alienated by Putin had he done something like this. You gotta keep in mind that Scholz and Macron were also pretty Putin-friendly until late February 2022, but even they subsequently felt that Putin has acted out of line.



Yep.

1.Scholz is still helping Putin.He blocked Spain from sending german tanks to ukrainians,and pay for Moscov war.
Merkel would do the same.Especially,that she was STASI,which mean KGB.
Obama....well,he was soviet friendly when he was young.

2.Yes,but there would be no sanctions.Putin missed his chance - unless,he want to lost.Schwalb in 2017 boasted that Putin is his pupil,after all.

 

[WolfBear]

1.Scholz is still helping Putin.He blocked Spain from sending german tanks to ukrainians,and pay for Moscov war.

Fucking Germans:

https://bnn-news.com/media-germany-blocks-spain-from-sending-arms-to-ukraine-235433

 

[Buba]

IMO many, if not most, top German politicians are deep in Russian/Gazprom pockets. Since the turn of the century*. AFAIK there even is a German term for it - "atuned to Russian interests" or something like that.

* not to mention earlier Soviet or STASI agents in high places.

 

[WolfBear]

IMO many, if not most, top German politicians are deep in Russian/Gazprom pockets. Since the turn of the century*. AFAIK there even is a German term for it - "atuned to Russian interests" or something like that.

* not to mention earlier Soviet or STASI agents in high places.

As I have previously said about this topic:

IMHO, Germany should not either resist or oppose its own Manifest Destiny, which is expanding its sphere of influence eastwards, including into Ukraine, at Russia's expense. It did this during World War I, again but much more brutally and tragically during World War II, and again right now with the European Union granting candidacy status to both Ukraine and Moldova. Germany should realize that Russia isn't going to forgive it for World War II and also that it's a futile fool's errand for Germany to give up on its own Manifest Destiny. Germany should, of course, also realize that Ukrainians have also suffered a lot in World War II as well as a result of other Soviet aspects such as the Holodomor which only occurred because Germany sent Lenin to Russia in 1917 in the first place so that he could seize power there. Germany has always been about fighting Russia ever since 1914, when it was willing to risk sparking World War I because it felt that a war with Russia right now is better than a war with Russia later, when Russia would have already been too strong for it to successfully fight.

 

[WolfBear]

But Russia in this case is not well prepared for dealing with sanctions, like now.

Are you suggesting that Russia is unprepared right now or that Russia is more prepared right now than in 2014?

 

[ATP]

Fucking Germans:

https://bnn-news.com/media-germany-blocks-spain-from-sending-arms-to-ukraine-235433

Like one smart jewish-polish woman said,Ribbentrop-Molotov pact is still working.

 

[Buba]

As I have previously said about this topic:

Thank you, but no. I'm in the way ...

 

[WolfBear]

Thank you, but no. I'm in the way ...

In the way of what? Of German plans towards Russia? Because this time Germany should use Poland as an ally in this project. Poland does want Ukraine out of Russia's orbit, after all.

 

[ATP]

Thank you, but no. I'm in the way ...

True.We do not need war with german as allies,becouse:
1.They would betray us
2.If not,they would lost.And we with them.
Besides,like Wacław Potocki writen in "Wojna Chocimska" ,"Nigdy,jak świat światem,nie będzie niemiec polakowi bratem" - and it was old proverb before 1675./My translation - "never germans could be brothers to poles"/

 

[WolfBear]

True.We do not need war with german as allies,becouse:
1.They would betray us
2.If not,they would lost.And we with them.
Besides,like Wacław Potocki writen in "Wojna Chocimska" ,"Nigdy,jak świat światem,nie będzie niemiec polakowi bratem" - and it was old proverb before 1675./My translation - "never germans could be brothers to poles"/

I'm thinking more along the lines of having Germans and Poles jointly support Ukrainians while also jointly sitting on the sidelines. Give aid to Ukraine (weapons, et cetera), but don't fight directly for them.

Also, off-topic, but can you please respond to this thread of mine? :

https://www.the-sietch.com/index.php?threads/the-development-of-romania-without-world-war-i.8582/

Thank you.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Are you suggesting that Russia is unprepared right now or that Russia is more prepared right now than in 2014?

Russia wasn’t prepared for the sanctions back in 2014. Import substitution was probably their desperate resort.

 

[ATP]

I'm thinking more along the lines of having Germans and Poles jointly support Ukrainians while also jointly sitting on the sidelines. Give aid to Ukraine (weapons, et cetera), but don't fight directly for them.

Also, off-topic, but can you please respond to this thread of mine? :

https://www.the-sietch.com/index.php?threads/the-development-of-romania-without-world-war-i.8582/

Thank you.

Good idea - but germans ALWAYS would support Moscov against us.Becouse idiots think,that They could made another partition and live in peace after that.
Idiots forget,that they need german tsar in Moscov for that,and all we have is colonel Putin.Who would massacre Poland with them - but later kill them,too.

 

[WolfBear]

Good idea - but germans ALWAYS would support Moscov against us.Becouse idiots think,that They could made another partition and live in peace after that.
Idiots forget,that they need german tsar in Moscov for that,and all we have is colonel Putin.Who would massacre Poland with them - but later kill them,too.

Why the heck would Germans even want Polish territory right now? It's not like their population is growing, after all. Well, not significantly growing, at least.

 

[Batrix2070]

Why the heck would Germans even want Polish territory right now? It's not like their population is growing, after all. Well, not significantly growing, at least.

Today? They don't want our territory but us as puppets and a place where they can produce their products for nothing and sell inferior products expensively (which is the case, just buy the same German product in Poland and in Germany, the one in Germany will be much better) and they will do everything to make Poles stop resisting. This is why the EU is attacking us so much because the pro-German PO government has been removed. And PO has shown that it will only look after German interests, during their rule the Germans here had el dorado.

 

[WolfBear]

Today? They don't want our territory but us as puppets and a place where they can produce their products for nothing and sell inferior products expensively (which is the case, just buy the same German product in Poland and in Germany, the one in Germany will be much better) and they will do everything to make Poles stop resisting. This is why the EU is attacking us so much because the pro-German PO government has been removed. And PO has shown that it will only look after German interests, during their rule the Germans here had el dorado.

You know, I'd actually be more sympathetic to the current Polish government if it was more LGBTQ+ friendly.

 

[Batrix2070]

You know, I'd actually be more sympathetic to the current Polish government if it was more LGBTQ+ friendly.

He is friendly, he just has the whole thing where all Poles do, up his ass. We were not and are not affected by this problem, and these organizations act inversely to their proclaimed goal, instead of saying that they are normal they piss us off mercilessly make of themselves a bunch of nutcases and perverts.