Romania's 1916 leadership sees the next five years of the future prior to Romania's WWI entry

WolfBear

Well-known member
What if Romania's 1916 leadership sees the next five years of the future prior to Romania's WWI entry? Would Romania then refuse to enter WWI in 1916 due to fear of getting occupied by Germany, preferring to enter the war in 1918 instead? Or would the Romanians be smart enough to deduce and fear that Germany might not resume USW if Romania doesn't enter the war due to Erich von Falkenhayn remaining in control of the German military? In which case the CPs would win WWI and there would be no hope at all for Romania to create Greater Romania, not even if Austria-Hungary will collapse and break up since in such a scenario Germany will likely support the continued territorial integrity of its ally Hungary.

What do you think?
 

stevep

Well-known member
What if Romania's 1916 leadership sees the next five years of the future prior to Romania's WWI entry? Would Romania then refuse to enter WWI in 1916 due to fear of getting occupied by Germany, preferring to enter the war in 1918 instead? Or would the Romanians be smart enough to deduce and fear that Germany might not resume USW if Romania doesn't enter the war due to Erich von Falkenhayn remaining in control of the German military? In which case the CPs would win WWI and there would be no hope at all for Romania to create Greater Romania, not even if Austria-Hungary will collapse and break up since in such a scenario Germany will likely support the continued territorial integrity of its ally Hungary.

What do you think?

I don't know if Romania entering the war when it did was that important for von Falkenhayn losing his post. As I understand it the failure of the Verdun campaign to break the French army and the huge German losses both there and on the Somme, possibly also coupled with the Brusilov offensive which came near to breaking the Austrian army were the main drivers for this and for Ludendorff to get a move to eastern offensives against Russia and a more defensive stance in the west. As such I think Germany would still go for USW as the only way they could see of breaking Britain.

Given the defeats that Romania endured and the occupation of the country I suspect that given this knowledge they would avoid entering the war in late 1916. [Or possibly make plans to actually secure the mountain passes and also their southern border, largely on the lower Danube so that they could see out the winter at least]. Perhaps even, as is suggested elsewhere on this site going for an offensive against Bulgaria - provided they get suitable reassurance about allied support - to try and link up with the allied forces attacking from the Salonika region. It would depend on how confident they were or not on the effectiveness of any changes they go for. The safer bet would definitely be to wait at least a year and probably until 1918 and the [ presumed] failure of the German spring offensive.

Of course the other big issue they would be aware of would be the collapse of Russia, both the Romanov dynasty and then the young republic and also its military capacity. Until recently I thought that Romania entering the war made things worse for Russia by lengthening the eastern front considerably but more recent reading suggests that Russian morale was already broken for anything other than possible defensive actions so we have to consider here how the Romanians view this and how that affects their decision making and also how their decision also affects events in Russia and elsewhere.

For instance while Russia is a large and potentially dangerous neighbour and its weakness would mean they can pick up Bessarabia how horrified would they be by the emergence of the USSR on their border, albeit that by late 1921 its still pretty fragile. Would they want to have things go as OTL or if not how would they want to change it? Seek to see the republic emerge and survive, the communists defeated in the civil war or what? Similarly if they don't go to war and the fragility of what probably still seemed in 1916 as the Russian colossus is likely to make them want to stay neutral longer how does that affect events in the east and the wider world?
 

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