I've been speculating for a long time on a timeline where the Dutch colony of New Netherlands becomes a great power, and a potential analog to the OTL United States of America. I've finally nerved myself up to commit these ideas to a post, and see what people think about it.
The main challange is a demographic deficit. The Netherlands never had a vast population, and getting settlers from elsewhere either 1) only takes you so far, or 2) turns the colony into something no longer meaningfully "Dutch" (which somewhat defeats the implied purpose of the secenario).
A solution I have repeatedly suggested is an early POD that involves the Netherlands being larger from an early point onward, with a correspondingly greater population. This could then produce the demographic surplus that sustains the earlier stages of settler colonialism.
Naturally, an early POD would change the Netherlands in various ways, to the point that it would an "alt-Netherlands", populated by "alt-Dutch" inhabitants. This kind of set-up, furthermore, is best achieved and sustained by getting the whole region to remain Catholic-- thus preventing internal divisions tearing the country apart. (This could be done by preventing the Spanish or Austrians from getting their hands on it. So... Greater Burgundy prevails...?)
This would mean that any "New Netherlands" would merely be an ATL counterpart of the New Netherlands we know, and everything we do is just an exercise in speculation. More fiction-writing than (allo)historical analysis, really.
So that does present a bit of an issue.
If we go with a later POD during the Anglo-Dutch Wars, things will be much harder. But let's try.
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1665-1667
In the Second Anglo-Dutch War, the Dutch government takes a chance and provides Peter Stuyvesant with the support he needs to defend the colony from the English. As a result, the Dutch are not forced to give up either of their colonies at the Treaty of Breda
In fact, it would be best if the Netherlands lost other colonies
instead of losing New Netherlands. You want to close off other avenues for Dutch settlemt as early as possible. You want any and all settlers to go to New Netherlands, and nowhere else.
I'd go back to the
First Anglo-Dutch War, and have it end on more of a draw. The Dutch successfully launch an attack in the New England settlements, and take them. England, meanwhile, could take Dutch possessions elsewhere, and refuse to swap the cnquered holdings back. (Which the Dutch at the time no doubt would prefer!) I'm thinking of the Dutch Virgin Islands, Curaçao and Dependencies (a.k.a the Dutch Antilles), the Dutch colonies of the Guianas (incl. future Suriname), the Dutch Gold Coast, and the Cape Colony (only just established).
The English/British would be locked out of the North-Eastern sea-board as of the mid-1650s. The Dutch would be rather revanchist over having lost the above colonies, so many English settlers would be "encouraged" to leave New England.
The rest of the war's conclusion would play out pretty much as in OTL, and the same issues would still cause a second Anglo-Dutch War.
In the mean-time, it would be good if France could start forcibly deporting Huguenots to Acadia and Quebec. These were very lightly populated, and this notion would effectively turn them into a sort-of penal colony for bothersome religious dissidents. They would be lorded over by a Catholic class loyal to France, and the Huguenot exiles would hate this.
the Second Anglo-Dutch War happens, Britain won't be in a position to just take back New England, nor would it be a priority. After all, without the Gold Coast and the Cape, the Dutch will have a harder logistics struggle to overcome when it comes to war in the East Indies. This incentivises Britain to focus all attention there.
The Dutch can do better in the North American holdings, pushing their claims to the Southern extreme: the Delaware river's watershed would be claimed by the Dutch, whereas the Susquehanna's watershed would be the North-Eastern bound of the British claims. The Dutch would also have control over the area covered by the OTL state of Delaware. And Britain would be compelled by the war's resolution to abstain from aiding any native enemies of the Dutch in the future.
Britain would hardly care, because Britain would conclude 1667 by securing Mauritius, the Dutch trade posts in India and Bengal, Dutch Ceylon, Dutch Malacca, the Dutch holdings in the East Indies, as well as Dutch Formosa and Keelung.
At this point, the Dutch colonial empire has ceased to exist. Instead, the Dutch Republic is a union of Dutchmen living on both sides of the Atlantic-- in the "old" Netherlands and in the New Netherlands.
1672-1674
In the Third Anglo-Dutch War, the English try and fail to capture the colony of New Netherlands. After this, the Dutch and the English will be at peace for a hundred years, so the colony is now safe. The Dutch continue their policy of encouraging immigration to their colony from all over Europe
Trade disputes still being unresolved, a third Anglo-Dutch War still happens in the scenario I've outlined as well. But the British wouldn't attempt to capture New Netherlands at all. Rather, they'd attempt to blockade the Netherlands, while the Netherlands fight a land war against France.
In Europe, things play out as in OTL. Meanwhile, the Dutch manage to thwart the naval blockade at least partially, and manage to offer critical support to New Netherlands. This expanding colony focuses all its efforts on fighting the French-- alongside enthoudiastic Huguenot rebels. French Canada is ultimately surrendered to New Netherlands. In the final treaty, it is agree that everything North-West of the Ohio river / Allegheny river, and North-East of the Missouri river, is to go to the Dutch.
Of course, this is almost entirely just claimed land-- in reality full of Native Americans. But with this set-up, the British (and French, obviously) are entirely locked out of the Great Lakes region. And potentially, New Netherlands is now a super-Canada analogue that also holds New England, the Ohio Country, and the Northern US plains of OTL.
Meanwhile, La Louisiane would be reduced in size, and its French population would be very modest. I think that in this situation, France may well seek to fob the region off the Spain (since this would allow Spain to connect New Spain to Florida), presumably in exchange for a few Caribbean possessions.
1680s
Two events strongly impact New Netherlands. First, Louis XIV of France revokes the Edict of Nantes, and begins persecuting the Huguenots. ITTL, many thousands of the these French protestants settle in the New Netherlands. Later, William Penn is unable to secure a land grant from the King of England. As a result, the English Quakers settle in New Netherlands instead. The influx of all these settlers leads to a massive population boom in New Netherlands, and the formation of a large merchant middle-class.
Englishmen would be likely in the sequence of events I've proposed, but conversely, France is already being more oppressive to the Huguenots in my scenario, and after their revolt in America... yeah, I'd guess all of them are leaving France post-haste. Many will end up in New Netherlands.
Early 18th century
The presence of New Netherlands sharpens the divide between New England and the southern colonies (Maryland, Virginia, North and South Carolina, and Georgia). There is little shared sentiment that they are all "Americans"
As I've outlined it, this is no longer even an issue, and the British colonies are reduced to "Maryland through South Carolina", roughly speaking.
The situation ends up looking like this, more or less:
As we can see, I imagine a super-sized New Spain. England would have little ability to take bits off it, and France wouldn't want to. The Netherlands would aready have more than enough to digest.
New Netherlands would similarly be vast and sprawling. I think the Ohio Country would become a Dutch-backed "Native buffer state", aimed specifically at preventing British encroachment at all costs. I've marked this with a dotted line. Likewise, another dotted line marks the Eastern region that would be the main area of Dutch/European settlement. I think >90% of the European-decended population would live East of the indicated line. Meanwhile, the "Canadian interior" (whatever they end up calling it) will also be more of a Native American region-- albeit more by default, and less by design.
The Pacific North-West might be grabbed up by the Dutch, or might end up fully in Russian hands. Or the Spanish might successfully claim it. Or Britain (or France) starts a colony there, to keep the Dutch off the West Coast. Anything can happen, really.
British America is much reduced, compared to OTL. I think settlers would still trek accross the Appalachians and claim that region. However, where the Atlantic coastal region would be suited to plantations, these inland regions would not. And whereas the Atlantic regions would be fully directed towards England, the inland regions would (by the simple flow of the rivers!) be constantly interacting with Dutch-allied Natives, and with the Spanish. This would create a massive cultural divide, and I could see "British America" splitting apart over it later on.
1770s
New England and the Southern colonies revolt against Great Britain. These are separate rebellions, not directly connected to each other. New Netherlands supports the rebellions, due to many shared concerns. In the end, New England is conquered by the British, but the southern colonies gain their independence, and form the United States of America, using James Madison's Virginia Plan.
Regardless of the scenario: if North America is significantly divided, the colonies do
not rebel. In OTL, the fact that Britain decisively beat France in North America made the revolution possible. (The colonists no longer needed Britain to protect them from France.)
In the scenario I have suggested, however, the Dutch and/or Spanish might help the Trans-Appalachian bits of British America to split off from their coastal overlords.
1795
The population of New Netherlands has been growing increasingly restive about the lack of independence in their colony, which is still run from the Netherlands. However, rather than resort to violence, they choose to bide their time and wait for the right opportunity to press their case. The opportunity presents itself when France conquers the Netherlands and proclaims the Batavian Republic. The colony of New Netherlands quickly declares that they do not recognize the Batavian Republic, but decline to recognize the Dutch government in exile either. During the Napoleonic wars, the New Netherlanders take advantage of the confusion abroad to declare themselves the Republic of New Netherlands, draft a constitution, and put their house in order.
With a POD in the 17th century, the Batavian Republic and Napoleon are 100% butterflied away.
In general, I don't think that New Netherlands would rebel or secede. In practice, the Dutch Republic would remain and it would essentially just evolve into a "Dual Republic". Two unions of provinces, on both sides of the Atlantic, formally united under one constitution, but in practice both self-governing. Kind of like a mix between the British Commonwealth and NATO, as far as the set-up goes.
