Reds & other Authoritarians in the Sea of Time

[raharris1973]

What if the Soviet zones of Germany & Berlin and Austria & Vienna, as of May 30th, 1949 are ISOT to May 30th 1849?

None of the western zones of Berlin, Vienna, Germany, nor Austria are ISOT back. Importantly, no non-Germans nor non-Austrians are ISOT back, so no Soviet occupation troops nor Allied representatives or diplomats of any kind.

In this zone of Germany, the Soviets had forced the merger of the Communists and Socialists into the SED almost 3 years before, and manipulated the electoral machinery to set up a Communist People's Democracy. The GDR would not be established until October 1949, but the People's Congress to set it up was elected in May and Walter Ulbricht and Wilhelm Pieck were in place as SED Party leaders. The Volkspolizei and early versions of Volksarmee and Stasi already existed.


In this zone of Austria, Socialist Karl Renner was the leading political figure, and Socialists loyal to him were present throughout the administrative organs. He had also been compelled to appoint Communists to many positions throughout government as well.


When these areas, 'drop down' in May 30, 1849, either overwriting the Hohenzollern and Habsburg metropole and monarchs or encircling them in footprint of West Berlin or West Vienna, what happens in Prussia, Germany, Austria, and Europe?

The state of play of the 1848-1849 revolutions at this date can be gathered by looking here:

www.preceden.com/timelines/46791-the-revolutions-of-1848

But I will summarize the high points:

France's revolutionary situation internally is settled down and the Louis Bonaparte administration is consolidating its power taking advantage of its huge electoral mandate. He had been cautious in foreign policy until launching an intervention to restore the Pope's power in Rome starting in April to please his Catholic subjects.

In Italy, Austria has beaten down the Piedmontese twice and restored conservative regimes in states like Tuscany and restored the Pope's authority in Romagna. The Republic of San Marco still holds out, besieged in Venice, and will through August. The Republic of Rome still survives and will hold out against the French until the end of June.

In Prussia, the revolutions ended with anti-climax, with the Prussian King rejecting the "Crown from the gutter" offered by the Frankfurt Assembly in late April. - well, the ASBs just showed this guy, overwriting his core Brandenburg territory (plus all of Saxony, Mecklenburg, Brunswick, etc). However, Prussian and other German Confederation state troops were still engaged in battles in Jutland in the first Schleswig War.

Austria's situation was most complex (surprise, surprise):

Francis-Joseph had been crowned, the Vienna Reichstag had been dismissed, Prague had been retaken with the Pan-Slav Congress dispersed, Imperial forces occupied Budapest in January '49 and lost it again in April '49, as of the time of the ISOT, Hungarian rebels were still largely holding the Carpathian basin against Austrian and Russian and South Slavic invaders, and had declared a Republic on April 13th, but enemy forces were massing again for another round.

---

Stepping back from the broad European survey, we have several million 20th century Germans and Austrians dropped into the mix. They are tired, twice defeated, and war weary. Yet they have their hands on weapons far in advance of any of the regimes and rebels around them in terms of personal rifles, machine-guns, armored personnel carriers, vacant Soviet tanks and aircraft, artillery, and so on. They have the stocks and supplies on hand meant for the civilian populations and occupying forces, without the occupying forces, but none of the external supply networks intended to make up important food and energy deficits. There's supplies, scarce they may be, of medical equipment and drugs far in advance of the surrounding world, and mechanical and engineering and scientific knowledge even further in advance along with several valuable libraries.

The Communist-controlled SED starts with initial control of East Germany, and the Socialists, but with broad cooperation from Christian Democrats and Communists start in control of East Austria. East Austria has some oil recoverable with tech on hand and more oil recoverable by applying a combination known but not readily assembled and conveniently located equipment and tech.

The populations of these territories, especially Eastern Germany, weren't exactly liking life. And for the Austrians, the Marshall Plan, which made things more livable, just disappeared. But regime change does not offer a lot of promise. The world around them is antiquated by 100 years, and by 20th century standards, a pretty crappy place to live.

What happens politically in East Germany? Does the SED administration consolidate control while leading and channeling the population's activities towards physical self-preservation? Or was the SED so compromised as a tool of Soviet occupation, and the last 'native' government so identified with the Nazis that there is a grassroots popular uprising to restore the Nazi regime in East Germany? Or does grassroots pressure lead to a happy medium where the SED needs to back off repression and open up to democratic multiparty participation, and Nazis and the far-right little have only marginal support. Adopting old school monarchism seems outlandish, but can we rule it out?

Likewise in Austria, does Karl Renner keep legitimacy? Or is the area ripe for Nazi revival? Or do the Communists have some outside chance to seize power? Adopting old school monarchism seems outlandish, but can we rule it out?

I assume that the ISOT'ed states can, at a minimum, defend themselves from hostile takeover by downtime more conservative/reactionary regimes, based on their superior military tech. They will want to be able to trade with and access the outside world's resources soon though.

What will the downtime world think of these enclaves from the future. In particular, if East Germany stays explicitly Communist Marxist-Leninist, or if even a Democratic form of Socialism remains fundamental to the identity of East Germany or Austria, what would Marx, Engels, and the various members of the First International make of it?

 

[raharris1973]

The Third Worldintern - 1955 Bandung Summit in the Sea of Time

What if during the April 1955 Afro-Asian summit at Bandung, Indonesia, the meeting facilities, all guests, the city of Bandung, and its hinterland, the Indonesian province of West Java were all transported back in time 100 years to April 1855?

The guest list was extensive:

Bringing together Sukarno, U Nu, Nasser, Nehru, Tito, Nkrumah and Menon with the likes of Ho Chi Minh, Zhou Enlai, and Norodom Sihanouk, as well as U Thant and a young Indira Gandhi, delegates from every independent Asian, or African state, Archbishop Makarios of Cyprus and some Latin American countries, and black American Congressman Adam Clayton Powell and author Richard Wright.
So there they all are, in a fragment of the Indonesian state, in 1855, how can and will they apply their ideas to the world they find themselves in?
In the mirror image timeline of the 20th century where West Java is replaced by its 1855 self, devoid of Bandung and all the celebrity guests, what are the effects of the loss of so much Third World leadership?

 

[raharris1973]

The Panchayat Powers:

The Panchayat (Council of Five) of the Five Powers from the future are the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement. India, Egypt, Yugoslavia, Indonesia, Ghana.


#1 POD – All 5 countries ISOT back in time from 1961, when they became a permanent continuing movement


Scenario A. to 1861: The five countries and their leaders – (Nehru, Nasser, Tito, Sukarno, Nkrumah) land in 1861


They defend their survival and sovereignty with modern arms and technology as needed. They do all the usual things one has to do to replace uptime supply chains, and suffer the consequences, shortages, and crises of the severance of those supply chains.


Through radio transmissions, followed by aircraft flights and modern ship traffic, they discover within a week or two the world they are in, that it is a century backward, and each ISOT’ed country has the company of precisely five other countries from the twentieth century.


They are grateful for the company, since these countries all have cordial relations with each other, have no direct bilateral conflicts with each other, and have some economic complementarities, even though they can in no way reconstruct more than a tiny fraction of the mid-twentieth century global economy and infrastructure.


They defend themselves, easily, against downtime intrusions at the borders.


Internationally, they proclaim the same set of values they proclaimed through the Non-Aligned Movement, the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, Panchsheel.


They all pursue survival interests first, then national interests, but none of them abandon moral and propaganda interests.


They present themselves as an alternative counterpart to the contemporary European Concert of Power and the American republics, and take a stand against colonialism, going against the very principle of colonial expansion.


Specific actions:


India – Nehru -Tells British and Portuguese and French in adjacent South Asian territories to get lost, does an occupation that is not called conquest but democratic incorporation. Nehru is the loudest and most articulate Panchsheel proponent, a moralist, idealist voice, who tries to exert a global influence like a less violent, anti-racist, proto-Woodrow Wilson.


Tells the west hands off Asia, Africa, and


The existence of the Suez Canal is convenient for its international trade links


Egypt – Nasser - Has the canal and starts making downtime money off of it, opposes western encroachment on the Arab and Islamic world, works to roll it back where it already exists (Algeria, Aden, Gulf States), warns of Zionism, raises Arab consciousness. Going to war with Ottoman Empire is optional, but Ottomans would regret starting anything. Does seek to inherit their southern sphere politically, naturally.





Yugoslavia – Tito - Defends its borders from the wickedly surprised Ottoman and Austrian empires. Tito is the #1 proponent of socialist ideas and worker’s rights internationally. He invites Marx and Engels for a visit and a great parade in their honor.


For Yugoslavia, it’s fate is a mixture of the crises caused by disrupted supplies, but the fact that it’s a higher tech and better organized system than most downtime systems, though with less individual freedom for the elite classes.


Yugoslavia will have to deal with its own internal balance as crises in Austrian, and especially Ottoman territories compel ‘humanitarian’ intervention resulting in ‘democratic’ plebiscites to federate with Yugoslavia. One thing about Yugoslav occupiers is that they will try to control anti-Muslim pogroms and religious pogrom-ing in general.


Indonesia – Sukarno – will tell the Dutch to get lost from New Guinea and Portuguese from Timor. Then will go a step further and push the British out of Borneo, Malaya, Singapore, and the Spanish out of the Philippines, creating the Maphilindo, Nusantara dream. Whether he actually directly intervenes or not, he’ll tell the French to get lost from Cochinchina.


Both Nehru and Sukarno will tell the Chinese they have every right to tear up their unequal treaties just extorted by Britain and France in the Opium Wars.


They’ll send friendly emissaries to downtime Asian kingdoms – Burma, Siam, Annam, Korea, and empires, China, Japan, to warn them of the west and offer friendly help.


In the case of India-China, the Indians will also quietly demand that the Manchu dynasty sign on the dotted line that they agree with the Indian interpretation of the border and to Tibetan autonomy.


Ghana- Nkrumah - Will swat away any British attempts to assert control, oppose colonialism nearby, send some modern weapons to President Lincoln.





Scenario B. They all land 50 years back, in 1911.


…


They all pursue survival interests first, then national interests, but none of them abandon moral and propaganda interests.


They present themselves as an alternative counterpart to the contemporary European Triple Alliance and Triple Entente, Anglo-Japanese Alliance, and the Pan-American Union of Republics, and take a stand against colonialism, supporting the principle of the dissolution of the colonial empires that have just reached their apex.


India – Nehru – A little bit easier, more desirable to trade with abroad for supply input, a little bit harder to defend sovereignty, technologically. Can and will use news from the future to warn about WWI, Fascism and Apartheid.


British Empire, as closest threat/claimant, will still be target/focus #1 for India. India will also champion Irish cause, to additional pressure on Britain, and appeal to the US.


Nehru will also reach out to the nascent Chinese Republic, including Sun Yat-sen. May not know enough to warn about Song Jiaoren, but probably remembers enough to advise Sun not to revise for Yuan, advise Yuan not to be bossy or imperial, sell the democracy idea in general, and say that young whippersnappers Chiang Kaishek and Mao Zedong are bad news for the country.


Nehru also voices generic support for social justice and peace.


Condemns next war down the pike, which is Italy versus Ottomans.


Egypt – Nasser – Bluntly rebuffs British with prejudice, moves to oust them from neighboring countries. Sudan as priority. Warns Ottomans about Zionists. Aids Ottomans or local resisters against downtime Italian attack, basically shutting it down.


Yugoslavia – Tito – Defends itself (easily) from downtime Ottomans and Austro-Hungarians. Warns about WWI and advocates for workers and socialism. Does see value in trade with downtime countries in addition to fellow uptimers for supplies. Invite Lenin and other prominent Communists for visits and training and parades, but tells them all that Stalin is bad news. Sends hit squads across the borders against unsuspecting Hitler and Mussolini. Probably gonna have a destabilizing influence on neighboring countries.


Indonesia – Sukarno – Defends itself from downtime Dutch. Probably presses luck against East Timor and Dutch New Guinea, but can be more cautious about directly taking on the British Empire and USA (but indirect subversion is still likely). Will work with China and try to encourage Chinese-Japanese cooperation.


Ghana- Nkrumah – Defends itself from downtime British Empire, press for colonial independence in neighboring countries, work with fellow-uptimers to avoid potential isolation, embargoes or aggression. Condemns American and South African racial discrimination strongly.


Scenario C. They all land 25 years back, in 1936.


…


They all pursue survival interests first, then national interests, but none of them abandon moral and propaganda interests.


They present themselves as an alternative counterpart to the contemporary League of Nations, Anti-Comintern Pact, Comintern, and take a stand against colonialism, supporting the principle of the dissolution of the colonial empires and rapid end of LoN mandates.


India – Nehru – Warns everyone sharply about the folly of upcoming WWII and atomic energy. Which makes everyone start looking for it. Really tries to talk Japan out of going nuts on China, but they don’t listen. Ousts Britain from rest of Raj.


Egypt – Nasser – Demands end to Zionist project. Condemns Europe offloading issue to Arab world, move to quickly undermine Franco-British mandates and neighboring colonies. Will he tilt Axis-ish and tolerate Germany and Italy? Maybe with anti-British, anti-French priorities. But Yugoslavia will argue against it, and he may just close Suez to Italy (although Abyssinina might be almost done), and take on Italian Libya, but that would not be as easy a fight as he thinks. Might ironically cause a Fascist Italy, Britain, Zionist alliance.


Yugoslavia – Tito – Going to harden up and make Austrian independence a redline and try cov-ops, assassination against Hitler and Mussolini. Aid the Spanish Republic. Kill Ustashe exiles. Possibly fight Italy in alliance with Egypt. Going to try to cov-ops, assassinate Stalin.


Will grant uptime Soviet representatives, personnel and travelers asylum, anonymity, and Yugoslav citizenship papers in exchange for their expertise. The ones who have any common sense do *not* want to go back.


Indonesia – Sukarno –Defends itself from downtime Dutch. Probably presses luck against East Timor and Dutch New Guinea, but can be more cautious about directly taking on the British Empire and USA (but indirect subversion is still likely). Will work with China and try to encourage Chinese-Japanese-Soviet cooperation against the west. It won’t work really.


Ghana- Nkrumah - Defends itself from downtime British Empire, press for colonial independence in neighboring countries, work with fellow-uptimers to avoid potential isolation, embargoes or aggression. Condemns American and South African racial discrimination strongly. Aids Ethiopia if there’s any fighting left and it’s practical, and it’s kind of not.


Scenario D. 20 years back in 1941. Why? Because everything is more fun in the middle of WWII!


They all pursue survival interests first, then national interests, but none of them abandon moral and propaganda interests.


They present themselves as an alternative counterpart to the contemporary Allied and Axis powers, and take a stand against colonialism, supporting the principle of the dissolution of the colonial empires and rapid end of LoN mandates and prompt restoration of world peace.


India – Nehru – It will try to end Sino-Japanese war, secure wider, faster decolonization in Asia, and prevent wider Asia-Pacific War. Magic 8-ball says the last one is too tall an order.


Egypt – Nasser – Oh yeah, it’s gonna fight in WWII, against two sides


Yugoslavia – Tito – Oh yeah, it’s gonna fight in WWII


Indonesia – Sukarno –It will try to end Sino-Japanese war, secure wider, faster decolonization in Asia, and prevent wider Asia-Pacific War. Magic 8-ball says the last one is too tall an order. It will have leverage on Japan as a free-wheeling oil producer.


Ghana- Nkrumah - - Defends itself from downtime British Empire, press for colonial independence in neighboring countries, work with fellow-uptimers to avoid potential isolation, embargoes or aggression. Condemns American and South African and Nazi racial discrimination strongly

 

[WolfBear]

What will the downtime world think of these enclaves from the future. In particular, if East Germany stays explicitly Communist Marxist-Leninist, or if even a Democratic form of Socialism remains fundamental to the identity of East Germany or Austria, what would Marx, Engels, and the various members of the First International make of it?

They'll initially conclude that their theory was right and that Communism needs to take root in industrialized nations, before discovering that Communism first took root in agrarian and overwhelmingly rural Russia and only later spread to East Germany as a result of a Russian conquest.

And frankly, I wonder if East Germany could adopt a German version of Juche in this TL. As in, a mix of Communism and German nationalism, with it aiming to reunify Germany just like Prussia actually did during the 19th century while still maintaining at least a little bit of its Communist flavor.

 

[raharris1973]

What if Indochina is ISOT from September 5th, 1945, to September 5th, 1845?

This is right after the Vietnamese August Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_Revolution has set up the Viet Minh as the supreme authority throughout most of Vietnam, and three days after Ho Chi Minh declared independence in Hanoi. Ho Chi Minh and Viet Minh authority is spottier in the south. One thing to note - only native Indochinese, and no foreigners, are ISOT back.

How do the Viet Minh proceed to try to consolidate their rule, feed their country, and develop their country with only some examples of 20th century technology and weapons but weak manufacturing capability? How do they deal with trade and tribute inquiries from the outside world including the Qing empire to the north and the French merchants and missionaries used to stopping by? Ho and his fellow Vietnamese know that about 13 or 14 years down the road Louis Napoléon is set to direct a French invasion. How do the Vietnamese seek to prepare for this. They can pretty easily squash any downtime adventuring force.

What do they judge makes a better deterrent, quiet but lethal massacre of invaders, intruders who overstep, or a loud confrontation with as much flash and panache as possible to demonstrate and perhaps exaggerate every technological capability the Vietnamese have?

Presuming a consolidation of Viet Minh power over Vietnam, and domination over Laos and Cambodia, how would the new regime like to nudge history in neighboring Siam, upper Burma, or China, especially after the Taiping rebellion breaks out in the latter?

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What if Cuba from January 1962 is ISOT to January 1862?

This after Cuba has survived the Bay of Pigs invasion and established strong Soviet ties but before the emplacement of nuclear missiles. Cuba goes back, without Guantanamo Bay, but with the whole Cuban population and any foreign guests present on Cuban soil and within the 12 mile nautical limit, again, with the exception of Guantanamo Bay.

The US is busy with its Civil War at the moment, but Spain will be upset that its mail to Cuba, its favorite isn't being answered and expected deliveries are not coming.

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What if Nicaragua from July 1981 is ISOT to July 1881?

This about two years after the Sandinista assumption of power in Nicaragua and around the time of the first land reform law.

 

[WolfBear]

Presuming a consolidation of Viet Minh power over Vietnam, and domination over Laos and Cambodia, how would the new regime like to nudge history in neighboring Siam, upper Burma, or China, especially after the Taiping rebellion breaks out in the latter?

Support the Taipings in China while aiming for an Indochinese Federation closer to home?

 

[WolfBear]

I wonder if we could also see Vietnam/an Indochinese Federation become a regional rival to Japan once the latter begins industrializing. That would be quite interesting. They could make a deal where Korea, Taiwan, and northern China are in the Japanese sphere of influence while southern China (minus Taiwan) is in the Vietnamese/Indochinese sphere of influence. (The Taipings could nominally rule over all of China, though. It would be spheres of influence, not a formal partition of China.) I wonder just how much of a navy the Vietnamese are going to build. If it's going to be a large and serious one, then they could eventually challenge Spanish rule over the Philippines. But that's extremely ambitious for them, of course.

 

[raharris1973]

They'll initially conclude that their theory was right and that Communism needs to take root in industrialized nations, before discovering that Communism first took root in agrarian and overwhelmingly rural Russia and only later spread to East Germany as a result of a Russian conquest.

And frankly, I wonder if East Germany could adopt a German version of Juche in this TL. As in, a mix of Communism and German nationalism, with it aiming to reunify Germany just like Prussia actually did during the 19th century while still maintaining at least a little bit of its Communist flavor.

well, if the German Communist (SED) authorities want to do something merging nationalism and communism, a first step they can take is intervening in the Schleswig war and decisively defeating Denmark, and establishing a border at the linguistic boundary. They can also try to reunify Germany through politics, special operations, and military operations- and if they do it without excessive ‘shock and awe’ the Russians may still try to intervene against it, and get defeated.

so ironically German Communists installed by Soviets might mow down Russian soldiers.

Of course this all presumes the Communists retain control of their uptime populace and security forces. They might not, since it was all recently imposed by Soviet conquest. Maybe East Germany reverts to Nazi or a right wing system? Or an uneasy broad tent provisional government?

 

[raharris1973]

Support the Taipings in China while aiming for an Indochinese Federation closer to home?

Pretty confidently yes, helping the Taipings sounds good although they may try to cultivate ideologically correct Communists over time in the midst of chaos.

 

[raharris1973]

I wonder if we could also see Vietnam/an Indochinese Federation become a regional rival to Japan once the latter begins industrializing. That would be quite interesting. They could make a deal where Korea, Taiwan, and northern China are in the Japanese sphere of influence while southern China (minus Taiwan) is in the Vietnamese/Indochinese sphere of influence. (The Taipings could nominally rule over all of China, though. It would be spheres of influence, not a formal partition of China.) I wonder just how much of a navy the Vietnamese are going to build. If it's going to be a large and serious one, then they could eventually challenge Spanish rule over the Philippines. But that's extremely ambitious for them, of course.

could well be- I imagine the Vietnamese would realize they can never formally annex or rule over parts of China, just strongly influence parts and play a big role in their region and compete at regional scale with a head start on Japan.

 

[raharris1973]

On Cuba I think it’s going to surely repel any Spanish expedition, and can wreck the impending Spanish expedition to Santo Domingo in 1863 to boot.

intervene against the tripartite intervention in Mexico? I don’t know.

intervene in the US Civil War ? Probably content to let it play out as long as OTL.

 

[ATP]

What if Indochina is ISOT from September 5th, 1945, to September 5th, 1845?

This is right after the Vietnamese August Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_Revolution has set up the Viet Minh as the supreme authority throughout most of Vietnam, and three days after Ho Chi Minh declared independence in Hanoi. Ho Chi Minh and Viet Minh authority is spottier in the south. One thing to note - only native Indochinese, and no foreigners, are ISOT back.

How do the Viet Minh proceed to try to consolidate their rule, feed their country, and develop their country with only some examples of 20th century technology and weapons but weak manufacturing capability? How do they deal with trade and tribute inquiries from the outside world including the Qing empire to the north and the French merchants and missionaries used to stopping by? Ho and his fellow Vietnamese know that about 13 or 14 years down the road Louis Napoléon is set to direct a French invasion. How do the Vietnamese seek to prepare for this. They can pretty easily squash any downtime adventuring force.

What do they judge makes a better deterrent, quiet but lethal massacre of invaders, intruders who overstep, or a loud confrontation with as much flash and panache as possible to demonstrate and perhaps exaggerate every technological capability the Vietnamese have?

Presuming a consolidation of Viet Minh power over Vietnam, and domination over Laos and Cambodia, how would the new regime like to nudge history in neighboring Siam, upper Burma, or China, especially after the Taiping rebellion breaks out in the latter?

---
What if Cuba from January 1962 is ISOT to January 1862?

This after Cuba has survived the Bay of Pigs invasion and established strong Soviet ties but before the emplacement of nuclear missiles. Cuba goes back, without Guantanamo Bay, but with the whole Cuban population and any foreign guests present on Cuban soil and within the 12 mile nautical limit, again, with the exception of Guantanamo Bay.

The US is busy with its Civil War at the moment, but Spain will be upset that its mail to Cuba, its favorite isn't being answered and expected deliveries are not coming.

---
What if Nicaragua from July 1981 is ISOT to July 1881?

This about two years after the Sandinista assumption of power in Nicaragua and around the time of the first land reform law.

1.Support Taipings,repel colonials.Not much more.
2.I think,that they could try invade USA.Castro could think that if he do not destroy USA now,they would invade him later.And he probably would be right.
3.They had 1500 tanks,right? do they have oil for them? if so,entire Central America is theirs.They could even try for USA - althought that would be probable one bridge too far.