Post-1991 Polish Intermarium and Russia-Central Asia Integration?

[TheRomanSlayer]

I'm not sure if this is the right section to post this kind of thread, so please move this if this is in the wrong area.

POSSIBLE POLISH INTERMARIUM POST-1991:

Could European integration have been more smooth if the old inter-war Intermarium project was implemented in the post-Cold War era? The idea of the Intermarium project was for Poland to essentially lead a collection of Eastern European states that would act as a barrier to both Russia and Germany in the inter-war period, but failed to build it. Could this kind of integration project have been attempted in 1991?

The positive benefit of a post-1991 attempt to build an Intermarium project would be that it will make the integration of Eastern Europe into the EU and even NATO as well. Moreover, the post-1991 Intermarium project might also deter any potential revanchist or revisionist antics on part of Russia in this case.

However, the negative liability of this project is that there could also be lingering ethnic tensions that may occur within said Intermarium, especially regarding Russian minorities in the post-Soviet successor states that would be a part of Intermarium. The Baltic States and Ukraine for the most part, and the issue of Kaliningrad Oblast would also be a thorny issue as well.

RUSSIA-CENTRAL ASIA INTEGRATION:

Central Asia for the most part, had been loyal to the Soviet hardliners during the 1991 failed coup attempt that was destroyed by Boris Yeltsin. While there were some issues within the Central Asian republics (most notably the Jeltoqsan incident in the Kazakh SSR), overall Central Asia had benefited somewhat (or not) from the Soviet government. Moreover, Central Asia is also the focus point in the rehash project in the form of Eurasian integration, namely the Eurasian Economic Union.

Unfortunately, the negative liability in this case would also be ethnic tensions, this time taking into account the demographics as well. Not a single political project could save the Russian population from the demographic decline that is facing them, and fears of the Central Asian population overtaking the Russian population in numbers is perhaps the reason why post-Soviet Russia didn't keep Central Asia. If they did, then Kazakhs would become the second largest ethnic group within Russia, instead of Tatars.

The only benefits of said integration between Russia and Central Asia would be resource based, as in more oil and gas supplies would be found, and they would also put Europe in a disadvantageous position regarding energy supplies. However, Russia-Central Asia integration also runs the risk of them inheriting the same disadvantages that a petro-state and a banana republic would have, namely that prices of oil and gas would have a serious effect on their economies overall unless they diversify.

 

[WolfBear]

It makes sense for Russia to integrate Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and, if possible, Azerbaijan since those countries have a lot of natural resources while leaving the rest of Central Asia alone--other than perhaps Kyrgyzstan due to the giant size of its Russian minority back in 1989.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

It makes sense for Russia to integrate Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and, if possible, Azerbaijan since those countries have a lot of natural resources while leaving the rest of Central Asia alone--other than perhaps Kyrgyzstan due to the giant size of its Russian minority back in 1989.

Kazakhstan is a definite candidate for re-integration into Russia, and maybe Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, possible but it would depend on the leader in question. Azerbaijan on the other hand, that might cause some problems, especially the thorny issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, since Armenia is interested in integrating that territory into its structure. However, keeping Azerbaijan integrated within the Russian bloc might also raise a stink with Turkey as well.

If Russia, or the former Soviet Union, could find a way to stop the ethnic tensions between Armenians and Azeris from boiling over, that might also allow them to keep Armenia integrated within Russia. Georgia however, is a definite no-go.

 

[WolfBear]

However, keeping Azerbaijan integrated within the Russian bloc might also raise a stink with Turkey as well.

Turkey can't win a 1-to-1 fight with Russia over Azerbaijan, can it?

If Russia, or the former Soviet Union, could find a way to stop the ethnic tensions between Armenians and Azeris from boiling over, that might also allow them to keep Armenia integrated within Russia. Georgia however, is a definite no-go.

Agreed, and frankly, Russia doesn't really need Georgia anyway. A good compromise could be to have both Azerbaijan and Armenia remain integrated into Russia.

Interestingly enough, I think that the best odds of Kazakh reintegration into Russia would have been when Slavs were still demographically dominant in Kazakhstan right after the Soviet collapse. Maybe if Kazakhstan became a democracy right after gaining independence, then this could have realistically occurred?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Turkey can't win a 1-to-1 fight with Russia over Azerbaijan, can it?



Agreed, and frankly, Russia doesn't really need Georgia anyway. A good compromise could be to have both Azerbaijan and Armenia remain integrated into Russia.

Interestingly enough, I think that the best odds of Kazakh reintegration into Russia would have been when Slavs were still demographically dominant in Kazakhstan right after the Soviet collapse. Maybe if Kazakhstan became a democracy right after gaining independence, then this could have realistically occurred?

Possible, and there were also a good chunk of the Kazakh population that lived in the RSFSR during Soviet times, and it was only after 1991 that the Kazakhs moved back to Kazakhstan that said country became demographically Kazakh majority.

Armenia and Azerbaijan on the other hand, that might require solving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, which might involve a lot of map demarcations, and population transfers. Keeping those two Caucasian states integrated within Russia would also allow the latter to share a border with Iran and Turkey (Turkey through Nakhichevan enclave).

So the most likely realistic outcome on Russia's part would be that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan would remain with them.

Now, regarding Poland and Intermarium, Georgia might possibly be aligned with this Intermarium bloc, especially if they have an interest in containing Russia. Romania might also join as well, especially since that would also provide an extra protection for Ukraine. However, there's that thorny issue of the Volgograd Gap that would have to be resolved as well. Realistically, this updated version of the Intermarium would be best formed as a new kind of cordon sanitaire.

 

[WolfBear]

Possible, and there were also a good chunk of the Kazakh population that lived in the RSFSR during Soviet times, and it was only after 1991 that the Kazakhs moved back to Kazakhstan that said country became demographically Kazakh majority.

Armenia and Azerbaijan on the other hand, that might require solving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, which might involve a lot of map demarcations, and population transfers. Keeping those two Caucasian states integrated within Russia would also allow the latter to share a border with Iran and Turkey (Turkey through Nakhichevan enclave).

So the most likely realistic outcome on Russia's part would be that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan would remain with them.

Now, regarding Poland and Intermarium, Georgia might possibly be aligned with this Intermarium bloc, especially if they have an interest in containing Russia. Romania might also join as well, especially since that would also provide an extra protection for Ukraine. However, there's that thorny issue of the Volgograd Gap that would have to be resolved as well. Realistically, this updated version of the Intermarium would be best formed as a new kind of cordon sanitaire.

Not only in the SFSR, but also in Uzbekistan, China, Mongolia, et cetera.

What about making Nagorno-Karabakh its own separate SSR?

Also, Russia would strongly want to keep Turkmenistan as well due to its vast natural gas reserves and very low population relative to Russia's.

What do you mean by Volgograd Gap? Intermarium doesn't need a land connection to Central Asia, after all. And Georgia can be reached by sea and also has the Caucasus to protect it, unless of course Russia still conquers Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Ukraine should eventually want to join this Intermarium, but probably decisively only in the 2010s once it will become clear that the pro-Western side has a permanent demographic majority in Ukraine.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Not only in the SFSR, but also in Uzbekistan, China, Mongolia, et cetera.

What about making Nagorno-Karabakh its own separate SSR?

Also, Russia would strongly want to keep Turkmenistan as well due to its vast natural gas reserves and very low population relative to Russia's.

What do you mean by Volgograd Gap? Intermarium doesn't need a land connection to Central Asia, after all. And Georgia can be reached by sea and also has the Caucasus to protect it, unless of course Russia still conquers Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Ukraine should eventually want to join this Intermarium, but probably decisively only in the 2010s once it will become clear that the pro-Western side has a permanent demographic majority in Ukraine.

NKR being a separate SSR might be possible, although that might have to be applied to Nakhichevan being a separate SSR as well.

True about Turkmenistan, although not sure much about Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as well. Tajikistan had a civil war, and Uzbekistan had their own internal issues as well.

I would agree on Ukraine joining Intermarium in 2010s, but the big red button in this case would be Crimea.

 

[WolfBear]

NKR being a separate SSR might be possible, although that might have to be applied to Nakhichevan being a separate SSR as well.

True about Turkmenistan, although not sure much about Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as well. Tajikistan had a civil war, and Uzbekistan had their own internal issues as well.

I would agree on Ukraine joining Intermarium in 2010s, but the big red button in this case would be Crimea.

I don't think that Russia would want Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. A lot of Muslims for very little benefit. In contrast to Turkmenistan's few Muslims for a lot of benefit.

Intermarium could declare that it won't fight on Ukraine's behalf over either Crimea or the Donbass.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

I don't think that Russia would want Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. A lot of Muslims for very little benefit. In contrast to Turkmenistan's few Muslims for a lot of benefit.

Intermarium could declare that it won't fight on Ukraine's behalf over either Crimea or the Donbass.

Turkmenistan has only 4 million people, so that might be doable. I would suspect that the integration of Russia and Central Asia, if we take into account the discussions we have right now, would almost look like the Tsarist Empire's borders with the Emirates of Khiva and Bukhara (autonomous, of course).

 

[WolfBear]

Turkmenistan has only 4 million people, so that might be doable. I would suspect that the integration of Russia and Central Asia, if we take into account the discussions we have right now, would almost look like the Tsarist Empire's borders with the Emirates of Khiva and Bukhara (autonomous, of course).

Yeah, sort of, more or less. Maximizing the natural resources while minimizing the Muslims!

 

[ATP]

I'm not sure if this is the right section to post this kind of thread, so please move this if this is in the wrong area.

POSSIBLE POLISH INTERMARIUM POST-1991:

Could European integration have been more smooth if the old inter-war Intermarium project was implemented in the post-Cold War era? The idea of the Intermarium project was for Poland to essentially lead a collection of Eastern European states that would act as a barrier to both Russia and Germany in the inter-war period, but failed to build it. Could this kind of integration project have been attempted in 1991?

The positive benefit of a post-1991 attempt to build an Intermarium project would be that it will make the integration of Eastern Europe into the EU and even NATO as well. Moreover, the post-1991 Intermarium project might also deter any potential revanchist or revisionist antics on part of Russia in this case.

However, the negative liability of this project is that there could also be lingering ethnic tensions that may occur within said Intermarium, especially regarding Russian minorities in the post-Soviet successor states that would be a part of Intermarium. The Baltic States and Ukraine for the most part, and the issue of Kaliningrad Oblast would also be a thorny issue as well.

RUSSIA-CENTRAL ASIA INTEGRATION:

Central Asia for the most part, had been loyal to the Soviet hardliners during the 1991 failed coup attempt that was destroyed by Boris Yeltsin. While there were some issues within the Central Asian republics (most notably the Jeltoqsan incident in the Kazakh SSR), overall Central Asia had benefited somewhat (or not) from the Soviet government. Moreover, Central Asia is also the focus point in the rehash project in the form of Eurasian integration, namely the Eurasian Economic Union.

Unfortunately, the negative liability in this case would also be ethnic tensions, this time taking into account the demographics as well. Not a single political project could save the Russian population from the demographic decline that is facing them, and fears of the Central Asian population overtaking the Russian population in numbers is perhaps the reason why post-Soviet Russia didn't keep Central Asia. If they did, then Kazakhs would become the second largest ethnic group within Russia, instead of Tatars.

The only benefits of said integration between Russia and Central Asia would be resource based, as in more oil and gas supplies would be found, and they would also put Europe in a disadvantageous position regarding energy supplies. However, Russia-Central Asia integration also runs the risk of them inheriting the same disadvantages that a petro-state and a banana republic would have, namely that prices of oil and gas would have a serious effect on their economies overall unless they diversify.

Kind of it was tried,and it was named Heksagonale.Germany stopped it by starting cyvil war in Yugoslavia and blowing entire country .
So,if you want intermarum,you need neutralize germany first.USA could do so in 1990,but not tried anything.
You want Intermarum - keep Hexagonale alive,which mean putting down Germany.Culd be done only by USA.

About Russia - your ideas are good,Kazachstan and Turkmenistan taken,nothing more.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Kind of it was tried,and it was named Heksagonale.Germany stopped it by starting cyvil war in Yugoslavia and blowing entire country .
So,if you want intermarum,you need neutralize germany first.USA could do so in 1990,but not tried anything.
You want Intermarum - keep Hexagonale alive,which mean putting down Germany.Culd be done only by USA.

Was it the Central European Initiative that you're referring to? I would think that the US stopping Yugoslavia from falling apart might be the good solution since that could stop German ambitions. A unified Yugoslavia would also help with the integration of Central and Eastern Europe into the EU in the future too.

About Russia - your ideas are good,Kazachstan and Turkmenistan taken,nothing more.

It could also be either Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, or three of the five Stans. The reason why Turkmenistan was thrown in the possibility of reintegration into Russia was due to its oil and natural gas resources. Other than that, we could also see an earlier formation of a Eurasian Union like organization.

 

[ATP]

Was it the Central European Initiative that you're referring to? I would think that the US stopping Yugoslavia from falling apart might be the good solution since that could stop German ambitions. A unified Yugoslavia would also help with the integration of Central and Eastern Europe into the EU in the future too.


It could also be either Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, or three of the five Stans. The reason why Turkmenistan was thrown in the possibility of reintegration into Russia was due to its oil and natural gas resources. Other than that, we could also see an earlier formation of a Eurasian Union like organization.

1.yes,it is.I do not knew,that it still exist.Probably becouse it is doing everything what germany wont.
But,if it remained independent,we would have intermarum.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

1.yes,it is.I do not knew,that it still exist.Probably becouse it is doing everything what germany wont.
But,if it remained independent,we would have intermarum.

Bloody hell, so Germany is practically responsible for screwing up the Hexagonale. At least there's also the Three Seas Initiative, which might become even stronger with an intact Yugoslavia joining it, plus Albania too.

I'm guessing that the benefits of a successful Hexagonale/proto-Three Seas Initiative is that Eastern Europe would learn how to integrate their economies to make it easier for bigger integration into the EEC/EU. Of course, if EU enlargement would still occur, then they'd receive the entire TSI package as a means of preventing Germany from exercising its full power within the EU. France and Britain would definitely welcome such an enlargement. Of course, this might also mean that Russia would have to give up Kaliningrad Oblast to Poland, in exchange for Crimea. It might also depend on whether the Soviet Union collapses in the same way as OTL, or collapsing on the Yugoslav model.

Then there's also Kyrgyzstan's other mineral resources as well: Kyrgyzstan: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources

Ditto with Turkmenistan: Turkmenistan: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources

 

[WolfBear]

Bloody hell, so Germany is practically responsible for screwing up the Hexagonale. At least there's also the Three Seas Initiative, which might become even stronger with an intact Yugoslavia joining it, plus Albania too.

I'm guessing that the benefits of a successful Hexagonale/proto-Three Seas Initiative is that Eastern Europe would learn how to integrate their economies to make it easier for bigger integration into the EEC/EU. Of course, if EU enlargement would still occur, then they'd receive the entire TSI package as a means of preventing Germany from exercising its full power within the EU. France and Britain would definitely welcome such an enlargement. Of course, this might also mean that Russia would have to give up Kaliningrad Oblast to Poland, in exchange for Crimea. It might also depend on whether the Soviet Union collapses in the same way as OTL, or collapsing on the Yugoslav model.

Then there's also Kyrgyzstan's other mineral resources as well: Kyrgyzstan: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources

Ditto with Turkmenistan: Turkmenistan: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources

What does TSI mean?

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

What does TSI mean?

Three Seas Initiative.

Basically the modernized version of what Pilsudski's Intermarium project was supposed to be all about.

Another thing that I almost forgot: April 9, 1989 was an event where Soviet forces had brutally suppressed a demonstration in Georgia that radicalized Georgian politics to the point where they preferred independence to Soviet control. Perhaps butterflying this event while we still have the collapse of the USSR might lessen Georgian Russophobia. Of course, a neutral Georgia might also serve as a useful buffer between Russia and Turkey.

 

[WolfBear]

Three Seas Initiative.

Basically the modernized version of what Pilsudski's Intermarium project was supposed to be all about.

Another thing that I almost forgot: April 9, 1989 was an event where Soviet forces had brutally suppressed a demonstration in Georgia that radicalized Georgian politics to the point where they preferred independence to Soviet control. Perhaps butterflying this event while we still have the collapse of the USSR might lessen Georgian Russophobia. Of course, a neutral Georgia might also serve as a useful buffer between Russia and Turkey.

Worth noting that Georgia was also conquered by the USSR fairly late--in 1921. Heck, the USSR even recognized Georgian independence in 1920 beforehand.