TheRomanSlayer
Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
It is often on various alternate history websites that the question of what if the Republicans won the Spanish Civil War often pops up, but the main problem is that there isn't any kind of PoD for this to happen. Another thing is that one of the TL ideas that I had is a neutral Fascist Italy that mostly kept to itself and its Balkan puppets, while the rest of Europe are divided into capitalist and communist blocs. It also goes well with a more northward Soviet political expansion as well.
The main problem for a potential Republican victory in the Spanish Civil War is that the mostly professional crack troops of the Spanish military (all three branches) have mostly sided with the Nationalists, forcing the Spanish Republic to rely on its workers to arm themselves and train. While the International Brigades did provide sufficient help for the Republican cause, as well as Soviet military aid to the Spanish Republic, ultimately aid from Germany and Italy tipped the scales in favor of Franco, leading to Spain falling under fascism and would not democratize until 1975, when Franco died.
So what are the most plausible PoDs for the Republicans to win the Spanish Civil War? I could think of a few, but here goes:
1) Leon Blum does not win the 1936 French legislative election: Not sure how this would be accomplished, but from one of Monsieur Z's video on what if Franco lost, there was a chance that France would have intervened in the Spanish Civil War on the Republican side, had Leon Blum actually got what he wished. However, there were fears that if Blum did just that, he'd be deposed by a right-wing coup. Let's say someone else won the 1936 French election (Daladier from the PRV or Louis Marin from the RF, or even Pierre Etienne Flandin from the Democratic Alliance). Would a moderate minded French leader be limited to how willing are they to intervene in the Spanish Civil War?
2) The Spanish Army of Africa Airlift Goes Terribly Wrong: Not sure how this might work, but given that the Soviets gave aid to the Spanish Republic, I would also assume that it might also include anti-aircraft cannons that would be powerful enough to shoot down the German-piloted planes that were carrying the Spanish Army of Africa from Morocco. Had the airlift gone wrong for the Nationalists, it might have a significant consequence, as the Nationalists might not have enough troops to counter the Republican forces.
3) The Republican government Supports the Independence of Spanish Morocco: This is also a very risky move, should the Republicans do this. Though it is quite logical, as inciting rebellion within Spanish Morocco against Franco and the Nationalists might force the Nationalists to keep an eye on the rebellious part of Spanish Morocco, long enough for the Republican forces to gain much needed ground. However, this also carries the risks of triggering a war with France, who also ruled the other half of Morocco as well. Ironically enough, the Republican government and Mussolini's Fascist regime might be united by the common cause of taking bites out of France's African colonies (Spain attempting to unite its portion of Morocco with French Morocco, and Italy attempting to grab Tunisia).
The main problem for a potential Republican victory in the Spanish Civil War is that the mostly professional crack troops of the Spanish military (all three branches) have mostly sided with the Nationalists, forcing the Spanish Republic to rely on its workers to arm themselves and train. While the International Brigades did provide sufficient help for the Republican cause, as well as Soviet military aid to the Spanish Republic, ultimately aid from Germany and Italy tipped the scales in favor of Franco, leading to Spain falling under fascism and would not democratize until 1975, when Franco died.
So what are the most plausible PoDs for the Republicans to win the Spanish Civil War? I could think of a few, but here goes:
1) Leon Blum does not win the 1936 French legislative election: Not sure how this would be accomplished, but from one of Monsieur Z's video on what if Franco lost, there was a chance that France would have intervened in the Spanish Civil War on the Republican side, had Leon Blum actually got what he wished. However, there were fears that if Blum did just that, he'd be deposed by a right-wing coup. Let's say someone else won the 1936 French election (Daladier from the PRV or Louis Marin from the RF, or even Pierre Etienne Flandin from the Democratic Alliance). Would a moderate minded French leader be limited to how willing are they to intervene in the Spanish Civil War?
2) The Spanish Army of Africa Airlift Goes Terribly Wrong: Not sure how this might work, but given that the Soviets gave aid to the Spanish Republic, I would also assume that it might also include anti-aircraft cannons that would be powerful enough to shoot down the German-piloted planes that were carrying the Spanish Army of Africa from Morocco. Had the airlift gone wrong for the Nationalists, it might have a significant consequence, as the Nationalists might not have enough troops to counter the Republican forces.
3) The Republican government Supports the Independence of Spanish Morocco: This is also a very risky move, should the Republicans do this. Though it is quite logical, as inciting rebellion within Spanish Morocco against Franco and the Nationalists might force the Nationalists to keep an eye on the rebellious part of Spanish Morocco, long enough for the Republican forces to gain much needed ground. However, this also carries the risks of triggering a war with France, who also ruled the other half of Morocco as well. Ironically enough, the Republican government and Mussolini's Fascist regime might be united by the common cause of taking bites out of France's African colonies (Spain attempting to unite its portion of Morocco with French Morocco, and Italy attempting to grab Tunisia).
