Plausibility Check: An eventual creation of a European Union-style confederation if the Central Powers will win World War I?

WolfBear

Well-known member
Just how plausible would it have been for a European Union-style confederation to eventually be created if the Central Powers would have won World War I? Would it have been very likely? Or would the creation of a Mitteleuropa confederation have been much more likely, possibly with one or more additional confederations on Europe's periphery?



Also, as a side note, if the Entente still win World War I but there is no World War II, just how likely is a European Union to eventually develop? What about by the present-day?
 

Buba

A total creep
EU analog - very not plausible.
Mitteleuropa i.e. German - A-H Co-Prosperity Sphere - likely.
Side note - again very not likely.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
@stevep What do you think about this? Personally, I consider the EU to have been one of the West's great success stories over the last several decades and thus I'm wondering if there is any realistic way to still create it with much less suffering, such as by avoiding one or both World Wars. I know that a specific French politician called for an EU back in 1929-1930, but he didn't get a very open reception to this idea:


 

stevep

Well-known member
@stevep What do you think about this? Personally, I consider the EU to have been one of the West's great success stories over the last several decades and thus I'm wondering if there is any realistic way to still create it with much less suffering, such as by avoiding one or both World Wars. I know that a specific French politician called for an EU back in 1929-1930, but he didn't get a very open reception to this idea:



Well that was after the bloodbath of WWI and with a desire to prevent it happening again. It still took WWII to remove most of the remaining desire for military 'victory' in Germany. If you have an imperial Germany that gains a military victory in WWI and makes most of the continent its playground, with probably a pretty brutal repression of France and probably other states that have crossed Germany such as Belgium and whatever emerges in Poland your going to have a system that is going to build up more hatred and mistrust. The closest actual parallel to OTL would be something like the Soviet bloc after 1945. Unless Germany manages a lasting suppression of other states this German economic empire will collapse sooner or later and your likely to end up with the bulk of its neighbours viewing Germany like the former WP nations view Russia which isn't likely to lead to any EU type organisation, or at least one that is likely to be built up to counter Germany. Which isn't going to lead to much European unity given Germany's location in the middle of the continent.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Well that was after the bloodbath of WWI and with a desire to prevent it happening again. It still took WWII to remove most of the remaining desire for military 'victory' in Germany. If you have an imperial Germany that gains a military victory in WWI and makes most of the continent its playground, with probably a pretty brutal repression of France and probably other states that have crossed Germany such as Belgium and whatever emerges in Poland your going to have a system that is going to build up more hatred and mistrust. The closest actual parallel to OTL would be something like the Soviet bloc after 1945. Unless Germany manages a lasting suppression of other states this German economic empire will collapse sooner or later and your likely to end up with the bulk of its neighbours viewing Germany like the former WP nations view Russia which isn't likely to lead to any EU type organisation, or at least one that is likely to be built up to counter Germany. Which isn't going to lead to much European unity given Germany's location in the middle of the continent.

The German economy is likely to be much more dynamic than the Soviet economy was due to a lack of central planning, though. But Yeah, the crucial question would be whether Germany will genuinely aim to improve the lives of Eastern Europeans or if it will simply aim to exploit them. Another crucial question would be whether free migration on a mass scale between Eastern Europe and Germany would actually be allowed.
 

stevep

Well-known member
The German economy is likely to be much more dynamic than the Soviet economy was due to a lack of central planning, though. But Yeah, the crucial question would be whether Germany will genuinely aim to improve the lives of Eastern Europeans or if it will simply aim to exploit them. Another crucial question would be whether free migration on a mass scale between Eastern Europe and Germany would actually be allowed.

Yes in that respect definitely and you wouldn't have the same level of brutal repression, at least inside greater Germany but I think the same fundamentals apply in that you have one large highly militarised power treating a lot of neighbouring states as basically economic if not fully political colonies.

One other difference is that I think the German satellites, especially once such as France and any Polish 'state' that emerged are going to have very limited armies I suspect, unlike with the Soviet bloc. The latter could use ideology coupled with the shock of Nazi Germany's nature and some divide and rule to raise sizeable local armies which probably would have fought [at least initially] alongside the Red Army in a general war but I doubt Germany would have the same level of trust in its subordinate states.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Yes in that respect definitely and you wouldn't have the same level of brutal repression, at least inside greater Germany but I think the same fundamentals apply in that you have one large highly militarised power treating a lot of neighbouring states as basically economic if not fully political colonies.

One other difference is that I think the German satellites, especially once such as France and any Polish 'state' that emerged are going to have very limited armies I suspect, unlike with the Soviet bloc. The latter could use ideology coupled with the shock of Nazi Germany's nature and some divide and rule to raise sizeable local armies which probably would have fought [at least initially] alongside the Red Army in a general war but I doubt Germany would have the same level of trust in its subordinate states.

Frankly, I suspect that Germany's main value for its colonized peoples is going to be as a destination source for immigrants, assuming of course that it would actually be open to this. Polish, Ukrainian, et cetera workers might be able to significantly improve their lives by immigrating to Germany. Not sure about French workers, though.

I also wonder what Germany's colonized peoples in Eastern Europe are going to prefer: Continued German vassalage or a return to Russian rule (or vassalage).
 

stevep

Well-known member
Frankly, I suspect that Germany's main value for its colonized peoples is going to be as a destination source for immigrants, assuming of course that it would actually be open to this. Polish, Ukrainian, et cetera workers might be able to significantly improve their lives by immigrating to Germany. Not sure about French workers, though.

I also wonder what Germany's colonized peoples in Eastern Europe are going to prefer: Continued German vassalage or a return to Russian rule (or vassalage).

a) If they allow it. Expect some would be but both on racial/national terms - not wanting too many minority groups and economic ones - objections from workers who face their wages and hence living standards being cut. However given the number of people from eastern and Balkan areas who might start flowing in that could quickly become an issue.

b) If the option is Bolshevik or possibly even Czarist Russia then Germany is a better overlord but its still going to be less popular than independence. Which would be seen as a viable alternative - Germany permitting - given that Russia has been gravely weakened. If the situation was like NATO or the EU with Germany as the 1st among equals then it would be a no conquest. However an overlord that treats them as a cheap source of raw materials, dumping ground for German goods, with tariff barriers and possibly restrictions on the abilities of the subject states to develop their own industries and also treats them as militarily subservient is going to be unpopular. Triply so in France of course given its own long history of being a strong independent power.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
a) If they allow it. Expect some would be but both on racial/national terms - not wanting too many minority groups and economic ones - objections from workers who face their wages and hence living standards being cut. However given the number of people from eastern and Balkan areas who might start flowing in that could quickly become an issue.

b) If the option is Bolshevik or possibly even Czarist Russia then Germany is a better overlord but its still going to be less popular than independence. Which would be seen as a viable alternative - Germany permitting - given that Russia has been gravely weakened. If the situation was like NATO or the EU with Germany as the 1st among equals then it would be a no conquest. However an overlord that treats them as a cheap source of raw materials, dumping ground for German goods, with tariff barriers and possibly restrictions on the abilities of the subject states to develop their own industries and also treats them as militarily subservient is going to be unpopular. Triply so in France of course given its own long history of being a strong independent power.

A) The wages and living standards being cut is primarily a short-term concern. In the long-term, immigrants and their descendants are also capable of creating jobs, including for Germans. Also, what happened to believing in the magical power of assimilation, like in the US? The US had the melting pot idea even back then, after all:


800px-TheMeltingpot1.jpg


B) The thing is, though, that even a greatly weakened Russia can still eventually recover and take advantage of any German departure from any Eastern Europe, or at least try to do so. Completely agreed with the rest of your analysis, though. There's a difference between German neo-colonialism and a NATO + EU-style arrangement, after all.
 

stevep

Well-known member
A) The wages and living standards being cut is primarily a short-term concern. In the long-term, immigrants and their descendants are also capable of creating jobs, including for Germans. Also, what happened to believing in the magical power of assimilation, like in the US? The US had the melting pot idea even back then, after all:


800px-TheMeltingpot1.jpg


B) The thing is, though, that even a greatly weakened Russia can still eventually recover and take advantage of any German departure from any Eastern Europe, or at least try to do so. Completely agreed with the rest of your analysis, though. There's a difference between German neo-colonialism and a NATO + EU-style arrangement, after all.

On the 1st point wise leaders and people think in the longer term - albeit that doesn't rule out them going in a bloody stupid direction - but most people including many politicians do think in the short term. There has traditionally been discontent about large scale migration in every society I'm aware of. Sometimes it dies down or is repressed by other factors and other times its a continual source of tension and/or results in restrictions on such movements. How it would develop in the case of a victorious imperial Germany would depend on too many variables I suspect.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
On the 1st point wise leaders and people think in the longer term - albeit that doesn't rule out them going in a bloody stupid direction - but most people including many politicians do think in the short term. There has traditionally been discontent about large scale migration in every society I'm aware of. Sometimes it dies down or is repressed by other factors and other times its a continual source of tension and/or results in restrictions on such movements. How it would develop in the case of a victorious imperial Germany would depend on too many variables I suspect.

FWIW, I think that countries with cognitively elitist immigration policies such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have less tensions over immigration than the rest of the world has.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
@stevep @Buba Another point that I'm thinking of here is that it's really hard to envision an EU-style union occurring in Europe before WWI because Europe was split into two rival camps/blocs back then, albeit with some less committed members. In such a scenario, it's hard to envision an EU-style union because you'd need to get member countries of two separate, rival blocs to both simultaneously enter this union. That's really hard to do. The Germans and French are in rival alliances but are going to be in the same economic union and confederation? That doesn't really make sense, does it? Hence the need for a major war where one of these rival camps/blocs is going to need to be defeated and destroyed before there is any realistic chance of an EU-style union occurring and emerging. In real life, it required two World Wars, but maybe with a bit of better luck, only one World War would actually be good enough for this?
 

stevep

Well-known member
@stevep @Buba Another point that I'm thinking of here is that it's really hard to envision an EU-style union occurring in Europe before WWI because Europe was split into two rival camps/blocs back then, albeit with some less committed members. In such a scenario, it's hard to envision an EU-style union because you'd need to get member countries of two separate, rival blocs to both simultaneously enter this union. That's really hard to do. The Germans and French are in rival alliances but are going to be in the same economic union and confederation? That doesn't really make sense, does it? Hence the need for a major war where one of these rival camps/blocs is going to need to be defeated and destroyed before there is any realistic chance of an EU-style union occurring and emerging. In real life, it required two World Wars, but maybe with a bit of better luck, only one World War would actually be good enough for this?

Well the problem with WWI as OTL was it didn't complete the job. Both France and Germany thought they could still survive being hostile at least politically and economically with each other and that Germany was allowed to rearm and try to dominate the continent again. You would need a different WWI which makes it clear to both nations, and probably others that they need to work together. [When I say others I'm definitely including Britain as the idea of a Franco-German alliance would give us kittens!]

Possibly if something - and I can only think of a strong and aggressive Russia as the US is too distant and isolationist much of the time - acts as a common threat after a different WWI?

One other alternative. Bismarck wins the fight with the generals in 1871 and Germany doesn't annex Alsace-Lorraine. He predicted this would prompt strong and lasting anger in France. If that doesn't happen France is likely to be resentful that Germany has replaced it as the top military power but that could pass as Austria's resentment after 1866 did. Then as Germany also eclipses France as an industrial power Paris accepts that possibly.

Of course this freezes out Russia and Britain who would be concerned about a Franco-German-Austrian bloc as would Italy but it could be the basis for some sort of economic bloc developing possibly.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top