plagiarized scenario - A completely dysfunctional end of WW1

[raharris1973]

Original writing credit goes to Catspoke from AH.com. His scenario seemed goofy and fun. Here it is:

Scenario:

Something roughly like:

The Germans do unrestricted submarine warfare, but don't do Zimmerman telegram (combined with a slightly restricted 1915 campaign which avoided the Lusitania, another ship being sunk later with less casualties, the USA tips to not going in for this TL).

The USA stays neutral but seizes German merchants in USA ports against losses and other German assets, and limited loans continue to go to the Allies (smaller than OTL).

The war grinds on, Russian revolution happens as OTL. Germans are in a little better shape supply wise as Belgian relief happens and some transshipment of USA goods continues to happen. The Allies have to scale back their attacks in the western front late 1917 due to less American loans and supply.

In this TL after Blucher, Georgette and Michael, go about as OTL, but without incoming USA armies looming, the Germans shift to reinforce a larger Piave Offensive against with some of their own divisions and artillery, and also prepare for a September Salonika offensive. Hoping to close down these fronts and the threat to their Allies and maybe even force a favorable peace.

These offensives take Venice and the line of the PO, and on the Salonika front the Allies are forced back a bit, Salonika is isolated but the port of Salonika holds, the Italians are forced out of Albania. The war continues into 1919.

And for 1919, Britain request several Japanese divisions for the Salonika front and a major Japanese naval contingent to help with the submarine threat.

1919 the Allies just win, Bulgaria, Austria, and the Ottomans are complete basket cases by then and their countries collapse under Allied offensives leaving the Germans alone which request an armistice November 11th 1919.

The Japanese with their extra commitment in this TL were hoping to get big concessions from the Allies in China and permission to take bits of Soviet Russia in the east are very annoyed that the peace conference isn't going that way, Without the USA there, the peace conference breaks down, and each country just pursues their own terms with the defeated powers individually.

The Japanese expeditionary force is in possession of Albania, from a winning Salonika campaign and just and refuses to leave, and backs the south Slavs against Italy.
(in general the Japanese back the defeated and new powers in this TL, figuring the weakening of all the big powers helps them, the Austrian fleet was secured by the Japanese in this TL and transferred intact to the new South Slav state).

Where does the world go from here????

 

[Buba]

An amusing read - but too ASB for me

 

[ATP]

Germany would be partitioned,France create its own empire in Central Europe with Poland and Czech as vassals,Japan would take Syberia.
Lenin could be crushed by joined forces of France&its vassals and Japan.

 

[stevep]

An amusing read - but too ASB for me

Would agree. Plus if the US isn't involved and Lenin's coup has still occurred I can't see any way that the allies would oppose a continued Japanese presence in Siberia. They are more likely to be cheering them on. You might see somewhat less intervention from an even more exhausted western allies but it was the US that was largely opposed to the Japanese presence in eastern Siberia.

 

[raharris1973]

Would agree. Plus if the US isn't involved and Lenin's coup has still occurred I can't see any way that the allies would oppose a continued Japanese presence in Siberia. They are more likely to be cheering them on. You might see somewhat less intervention from an even more exhausted western allies but it was the US that was largely opposed to the Japanese presence in eastern Siberia.

Plus Japanese taxpayers.

 

[raharris1973]

What's the most ASB'ish part, in your view? What's the most unrealistic part versus, potentially realistic?

I've got my own opinions.

I don't think anything in there is physically impossible, it's just not really believable all the governments would make the decisions they make in the scenario.

 

[ATP]

What's the most ASB'ish part, in your view? What's the most unrealistic part versus, potentially realistic?

I've got my own opinions.

I don't think anything in there is physically impossible, it's just not really believable all the governments would make the decisions they make in the scenario.

More unrealistic ? all what you said - plus,after WW1,both in France and Italy take parties worshipping roman empire and start war over who is true descendent of Rome.You could add Spain,England ,and Romania.
Adolf Hitler,if he take power,do that in the name of true german romans.
Only country not affected is Japan.

 

[Buba]

What's the most ASB'ish part, in your view?

Japanese ground troops in Europe.

 

[stevep]

Plus Japanese taxpayers.

That's a factor but Russia, even more under the Soviets than the Czars are a major opponent at this time and also it runs in line with the armies desire for more funds and influence and the idea of settling the region and securing a wider basis for Japanese future.

Not saying that Japan won't ultimately withdraw but I can see a strong probability in this case that they would hang on for at least a decade or so, which would give some big butterflies.

In terms of the most ASB I would agree with Buba that the Japanese being in Albania - why when the primary front is in France/Belgium - and them staying on afterwards. That would really anger the Japanese tax payers given the costs of maintaining such a presence even without any nearby powers 'objecting'.

Also doubtful that the Germans could hold on that long, even with some aid from the US. They were pretty much burnt out after the failure of their spring offensives. Its going to be a weaker counter attack without US forces and the allies will be drawn down more but I would still expect Germany to fall in late 1918 or early 1919.

 

[sillygoose]

Original writing credit goes to Catspoke from AH.com. His scenario seemed goofy and fun. Here it is:

Scenario:

Something roughly like:

The Germans do unrestricted submarine warfare, but don't do Zimmerman telegram (combined with a slightly restricted 1915 campaign which avoided the Lusitania, another ship being sunk later with less casualties, the USA tips to not going in for this TL).

The USA stays neutral but seizes German merchants in USA ports against losses and other German assets, and limited loans continue to go to the Allies (smaller than OTL).

The war grinds on, Russian revolution happens as OTL. Germans are in a little better shape supply wise as Belgian relief happens and some transshipment of USA goods continues to happen. The Allies have to scale back their attacks in the western front late 1917 due to less American loans and supply.

In this TL after Blucher, Georgette and Michael, go about as OTL, but without incoming USA armies looming, the Germans shift to reinforce a larger Piave Offensive against with some of their own divisions and artillery, and also prepare for a September Salonika offensive. Hoping to close down these fronts and the threat to their Allies and maybe even force a favorable peace.

These offensives take Venice and the line of the PO, and on the Salonika front the Allies are forced back a bit, Salonika is isolated but the port of Salonika holds, the Italians are forced out of Albania. The war continues into 1919.

And for 1919, Britain request several Japanese divisions for the Salonika front and a major Japanese naval contingent to help with the submarine threat.

1919 the Allies just win, Bulgaria, Austria, and the Ottomans are complete basket cases by then and their countries collapse under Allied offensives leaving the Germans alone which request an armistice November 11th 1919.

The Japanese with their extra commitment in this TL were hoping to get big concessions from the Allies in China and permission to take bits of Soviet Russia in the east are very annoyed that the peace conference isn't going that way, Without the USA there, the peace conference breaks down, and each country just pursues their own terms with the defeated powers individually.

The Japanese expeditionary force is in possession of Albania, from a winning Salonika campaign and just and refuses to leave, and backs the south Slavs against Italy.
(in general the Japanese back the defeated and new powers in this TL, figuring the weakening of all the big powers helps them, the Austrian fleet was secured by the Japanese in this TL and transferred intact to the new South Slav state).

Where does the world go from here????

Several issues with the scenario, despite it being quite interesting:

-The Loan issue. Unless the US government offers to secure loans to the Entente no one was going to keep making loans. Politically it was unacceptable until after the US entered the war on the side of the Entente; between the start of USW US entry into the war Wilson already had the Treasury issue the statement that the US government wasn't going to backstop unsecured loans, which virtually dried up any further lending given how little collateral the Entente had left. Even with some, but fewer loans the USW problem coupled with no US entry is going to create major pressure on the Entente to negotiate since they effectively cannot continue the war as they had been. The French army had mutinied, the Russians effectively dropped out, and everyone was banking on US entry to get them over the finish line...even then the French barely made it.

-The 1918 offensives are going to play out very differently without the US actively in the war regardless of the loan issue, which will make them probably war winning without US manpower in the line, as they freed up an entire French army as well as contributed two corps sized divisions to the actual defeat of the later offensives.

-Piave would not even be an issue, because if the US is out of the war by the time it happens Italy would quit after being defeated; it was only US financial assistance and promises of reinforcements that kept them in the war.

-Salonika wouldn't be attacked by the CPs nor would the Entente being able to attack out of it with fewer loans and the German offensives of 1918.

Basically if the US stays out (which I doubt even without the Z-T, which just hastened US entry) the Entente quits the war when loans dry up (even if only in part) and Russia decides that the war is therefore unwinnable and quits first due to public pressure; they only stayed in due to US entry and unsecured loan offers as well as post-war rebuilding loan offers.